NAT 9.7% vs IND
Incumbent MP
Andrew Gee (Independent), since 2016. Previously state member for Orange, 2011-2016.
Geography
Central West NSW. Calare covers the towns of Bathurst, Lithgow, Blayney, Orange, Oberon, Mudgee and Wellington, as well as other areas around those towns.
Calare was first created for the 1906 election, replacing the abolished seat of Canobolas. The seat has been held by all political parties over the last century.
The seat was first won by Thomas Brown (ALP) in 1906. Brown had previously held Canobolas since 1901, and he held the seat until he was defeated in 1913 by Henry Pigott of the Commonwealth Liberal Party. He held the seat for the Liberals and the Nationalists until he was defeated by Thomas Lavelle (ALP) in 1919.
Lavelle was defeated in 1922 by Major General Neville Howse, who won the seat for the Nationalists. Pigott had also contested the seat unsuccessfully for the new Country Party. Howse won a Victoria Cross during the Boer War and went on to serve as a senior officer in the First World War.
Howse served as a minister in the Stanley Bruce government before losing his seat in 1929 to George Gibbons (ALP), who was defeated by Harold Thorby of the Country Party at the next election. Thorby had previously been a state minister and went on to serve as a minister in Joseph Lyons’ federal government.
Thorby was defeated by John Breen (ALP) in 1940, and Breen held the seat until his defeat in 1946 by John Howse (LIB), the son of the former member for the seat Neville Howse.
Howse junior held the seat until his resignation in 1960. John England of the Country Party won the seat in the following by-election, and held it until the 1975 election. The seat was then won by Sandy Mackenzie.
Sandy Mackenzie lost the seat to David Simmons (ALP) in 1983. Simmons served as a federal minister from 1989 to 1993, and retired at the 1996 election.
The seat was won in 1996 by former television journalist Peter Andren, running as an independent. Andren won the seat on a 29% primary vote in 1996, with the ALP, Nationals and Liberals all polling less. Andren won 63% of the two-party preferred vote against the Nationals.
Andren set out an independent path, pursuing progressive politics while promoting regional interests. He was re-elected in 1998, 2001 and 2004 with over 70% of the two-party preferred vote.
The 2007 election saw the seat of Calare effectively abolished in its existing form, and Andren announced plans to run for the Senate in New South Wales. However, he was diagnosed with cancer and cancelled his plans to run for the Senate and decided to retire. Andren died of cancer in early November 2007, and the seat was won by John Cobb (NAT), then a junior minister in the Howard government and Member for Parkes.
In 2010, Calare was recreated in its previous form, losing areas in the northwest of the state gained in 2007, and regaining those areas lost to Macquarie in 2007. Cobb increased his margin from 53.5% to 60.7%. He was re-elected again with a larger margin in 2013.
Cobb retired in 2016, and was succeeded by Nationals state MP Andrew Gee, who had held the overlapping state electorate of Orange since 2011. Gee was re-elected in 2019 and 2022.
Gee resigned from the Nationals at the end of 2022 after the party decided to oppose the 2023 Indigenous Voice referendum, and has served the remainder of his term as an independent.
Assessment
This is a hard seat to pick. Gee is a longstanding local member but this will be his first test as an independent. He also faced a strong challenge from a local independent in 2022 who will be running again in 2025. It is quite possible that both independents could poll quite strongly and make the count quite complex.
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
| Andrew Gee | Nationals | 51,161 | 47.7 | +3.0 |
| Kate Hook | Independent | 21,891 | 20.4 | +20.4 |
| Sarah Elliott | Labor | 16,252 | 15.1 | -7.0 |
| Stacey Whittaker | One Nation | 9,057 | 8.4 | +8.4 |
| Kay Nankervis | Greens | 4,891 | 4.6 | -1.5 |
| Adam John Jannis | United Australia | 4,067 | 3.8 | +0.6 |
| Informal | 4,455 | 4.0 | -1.7 |
2022 two-candidate-preferred result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
| Andrew Gee | Nationals | 64,047 | 59.7 | |
| Kate Hook | Independent | 43,272 | 40.3 |
2022 two-party-preferred result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
| Andrew Gee | Nationals | 70,245 | 65.5 | +2.2 |
| Sarah Elliott | Labor | 37,074 | 34.5 | -2.2 |
Booths have been divided into six parts. Polling places in the three main towns, Orange, Bathurst and Lithgow, have been grouped together. The remaining booths have been split into north, south-east and south-west.
The Nationals won a majority of the two-candidate-preferred vote against independent Kate Hook in five out of six areas, ranging from 53.1% in Orange to 66.7% in the south-west. The two-candidate-preferred vote was perfectly tied in Bathurst.
Labor came third, with a primary vote ranging from 9.1% in the south-west to 23.5% in Lithgow.
| Voter group | ALP prim | NAT 2CP | Total votes | % of votes |
| Orange | 13.0 | 53.1 | 12,161 | 11.3 |
| South-West | 9.1 | 66.7 | 9,175 | 8.5 |
| North | 18.3 | 63.9 | 8,906 | 8.3 |
| South-East | 14.1 | 62.0 | 8,034 | 7.5 |
| Bathurst | 17.1 | 50.0 | 7,428 | 6.9 |
| Lithgow | 23.5 | 55.7 | 3,408 | 3.2 |
| Pre-poll | 15.2 | 60.5 | 49,126 | 45.8 |
| Other votes | 17.0 | 60.4 | 9,081 | 8.5 |
Election results in Calare at the 2022 federal election
Toggle between two-candidate-preferred votes (Nationals vs Independent), two-party-preferred votes and primary votes for the Nationals, independent candidate Kate Hook and Labor.
Nats campaign in Calare doesn’t appear to be going too well.
It would be interesting if Gee and Hook ended up as the final two.
Labor and SFF are recommending 2nd preference to Gee.
Nats and Greens are recommending preferences to Hook ahead of Gee.
I made a few phone calls to old boarding school mates in last 2 days. These guys don’t bullshit except when fertilising their fields. A bit shocked that all consider Gee a shoe in & some nat throwbacks are even telling me that they might vote for him. “he’s a good guy, open, good listener, hard working & a straight shooter”. & even more nice things!
@Watson Watch it won’t be Gee vs Hook, it’ll most likely be Nationals vs Gee or Nats vs Labor with the Nats retaining either way.
I can’t see how it could end up Nationals vs Gee with the Nationals still winning. That would require nearly all of Gee’s vote to come from people who never voted for him as a National (or, I guess, for those same voters to switch to National in Gee’s absense?). I would assume that whatever vote Gee gets (high or low) it’s drawing from the 2022 Nationals tally more than anything else – and that Labor, Green, and Hook preferences favour him over the Nationals. The only way the Nats win in that head-to-head (if it comes to that) is with a large first preference advantage – but the head-to-head scenario is assuming that a big chunk of their first preferences are siphoned off by Gee!
In my view, therefore, the win condition for the Nationals has to be that Gee doesn’t make the final two. A Nat vs Gee 2CP count that the Nats win would just require an incredibly weird set of first preferences to come about.
It won’t be Labor in the last two as they might have trouble getting to double figures on the primary vote. Gee likely, Hook possibly but it will depend on the where the Nat vote ends up. ON may do well and their preferences are directed to the Nats. However, preferences will spray everywhere.
I think we can rule out Hook from the 2CP. Last election, one of her main draws was that she’s independent and non-Nationals voters had someone to tactically vote for. She is no longer the sole/main independent anymore. This means that tactical voters have another choice – Andrew Gee.
The upside for Gee is that he is second on the Labor and SFF HTV cards. Labor voters were probably recommended to vote for Hook last time and are now recommended to vote for Gee. Unlike the other two Coalition leavers this term (Goodenough and Broadbent), Gee has had more time to establish himself as an independent – 2.5 years.
If Gee gets a super low primary vote then it’s over for him and it’s a Nationals win. He’ll need to at least beat Hook and Labor on primaries to have a chance.
@Nether Portal. Zero chance it’ll be labor in the last two. It’ll probably be Nats vs one of the independents. But I tend to agree with Votante that she may lose a lot of votes to Gee – and I can’t see him getting beat if it is him vs Farraway in 2PP.