To provide the best experiences, we use technologies like cookies to store and/or access device information. Consenting to these technologies will allow us to process data such as browsing behavior or unique IDs on this site. Not consenting or withdrawing consent, may adversely affect certain features and functions.
The technical storage or access is strictly necessary for the legitimate purpose of enabling the use of a specific service explicitly requested by the subscriber or user, or for the sole purpose of carrying out the transmission of a communication over an electronic communications network.
The technical storage or access is necessary for the legitimate purpose of storing preferences that are not requested by the subscriber or user.
The technical storage or access that is used exclusively for statistical purposes.
The technical storage or access that is used exclusively for anonymous statistical purposes. Without a subpoena, voluntary compliance on the part of your Internet Service Provider, or additional records from a third party, information stored or retrieved for this purpose alone cannot usually be used to identify you.
The technical storage or access is required to create user profiles to send advertising, or to track the user on a website or across several websites for similar marketing purposes.
Unlock with Patreon
Think you have the alp vote too low
If Gee gets the benefit of tactical voting by non-Nationals voters and/or solid preference flows from Labor and Kate Hook, then there’s a good pathway for him.
Parties like ONP and Trumpets of Patriots are populist and anti-establishment. Generally their party preferences flow to the Nationals over Labor. Their preference flows will be wild cards.
It’s worth watching if Gee gets over 25% on primaries and the Nats get under 40%.
Nats probably need close to 40% primary vote to win.
From what I can see they haven’t got that.
As long as Gee ends up in the final 2cp and the left/ centre preferences votes go strongly enough strongly enough against the nats then he wins.
A put nats last would go well
Mick
The ALP only got 15% last time so lower than that.
Votante
Gee got something like 48% last time.
Combined might be a bit higher but probably no more than the low 50s. And that will be the ‘Gee is no longer a Nat’ vote. I really do think the clincher will be where Labors votes go after they are in 4th place. That is not clear at this stage – and might not be until votes counted.