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This is perhaps the only tossup seat in NSW west of the dividing range. It’s hard to gauge Andrew Gee’s personal vote at this stage.
Like some other seats, the teal runner-up from last time, Kate Hook, will run again. I sense both the teal vote and Labor vote will go down due to tactical voting. The teal vote will go down as she is not the main independent anymore and voters have another candidate to vote for if they want a third choice.
The case for the Nationals is that they could regain this if the non-Nats vote gets split up and preferences go to the Nationals ahead of the eventual runner-up. Also, Andrew Gee might fall into third place or lower after preferences and his voters’ preferences get the Nationals over the line.
The case for Andrew Gee is that we’ll see Labor, Greens and Kate Hook’s voters’ preferences flow mostly to him ahead of the Nationals. He’s also had three years to solidfy his personal vote. There are three ex-SFF state MPs who ran as independents at the last state election and won, so it’s not impossible for a party-quitter to win.
@votante it will be a Nats v either Gee or Hook. im not sre which either. id say a Nats retain at this stage. CoL and things like the Gold Mine in Blayney that the govt canned. atm id say it will Nat v Kate Hook and Gee to finish 3rd or 4th depeding on how badly Labors vote takes a hit.
if Gee were to make the 2cp against the nats by siphoning off enough of their vote he would likely win on the other candidates preferences. I cant see Kate Hook winning either. In a year thats likely to be good for the coalition in general and the Nats always outperform the Liberals i cant see her winning against them.
also the proposed wind farm in Oberon that people dont want
This all depends on Gee. Should he stay out of it, the Nationals will easily win. Should he recontest, I’d say the Nationals would probably still have the edge, but I wouldn’t be willing to make a firm prediction
@nick gee is recontesting
What is forgotten is that One Nation did quite well here in 2022 – 8.4%. That vote probably was the remnant of the Shooters 17.4% in 2019. That Shooters remnant also contributed to Gee’s primary going up in 2022. In 2025 one of the queations will be how much of that ON vote will hold on and how much will drift off to the Nats or Gee. Then who will ON preference – the Nats or Gee? That might be a bit moot as 40% of ON preferences went to Hook last time. One would assume that Labor would preference Hook over Gee as they would be more likely to get her vote in the house. This would probably be enough to out Hook in second place above Gee. That is unless the Nats vote collapses and he outpolls them. Hook may also not do as well this time around. It would seem that the ALP will come 4th. Also worth noting that 30% of ALP preferences went to the Nats last time. Preference leakages could be crucial. If Gee or the Nats tank then it could be clear on election night – otherwise a wid ride through the vote count. Watch this space!!
Pretty cool seat, Nats will get about 35-45% and through preference leakage and other jostling down the ticket that will be plenty, Gee coming second and the Nats falling below 35% would probably throw the seat into some doubt, PHON preferences will likely be stronger to the coalition this election so if their vote remains high that could be decisive too.