Calare – Australia 2025

This is perhaps the only tossup seat in NSW west of the dividing range. It’s hard to gauge Andrew Gee’s personal vote at this stage.

Like some other seats, the teal runner-up from last time, Kate Hook, will run again. I sense both the teal vote and Labor vote will go down due to tactical voting. The teal vote will go down as she is not the main independent anymore and voters have another candidate to vote for if they want a third choice.

The case for the Nationals is that they could regain this if the non-Nats vote gets split up and preferences go to the Nationals ahead of the eventual runner-up. Also, Andrew Gee might fall into third place or lower after preferences and his voters’ preferences get the Nationals over the line.

The case for Andrew Gee is that we’ll see Labor, Greens and Kate Hook’s voters’ preferences flow mostly to him ahead of the Nationals. He’s also had three years to solidfy his personal vote. There are three ex-SFF state MPs who ran as independents at the last state election and won, so it’s not impossible for a party-quitter to win.

@votante it will be a Nats v either Gee or Hook. im not sre which either. id say a Nats retain at this stage. CoL and things like the Gold Mine in Blayney that the govt canned. atm id say it will Nat v Kate Hook and Gee to finish 3rd or 4th depeding on how badly Labors vote takes a hit.

if Gee were to make the 2cp against the nats by siphoning off enough of their vote he would likely win on the other candidates preferences. I cant see Kate Hook winning either. In a year thats likely to be good for the coalition in general and the Nats always outperform the Liberals i cant see her winning against them.

also the proposed wind farm in Oberon that people dont want

This all depends on Gee. Should he stay out of it, the Nationals will easily win. Should he recontest, I’d say the Nationals would probably still have the edge, but I wouldn’t be willing to make a firm prediction

@nick gee is recontesting

What is forgotten is that One Nation did quite well here in 2022 – 8.4%. That vote probably was the remnant of the Shooters 17.4% in 2019. That Shooters remnant also contributed to Gee’s primary going up in 2022. In 2025 one of the queations will be how much of that ON vote will hold on and how much will drift off to the Nats or Gee. Then who will ON preference – the Nats or Gee? That might be a bit moot as 40% of ON preferences went to Hook last time. One would assume that Labor would preference Hook over Gee as they would be more likely to get her vote in the house. This would probably be enough to out Hook in second place above Gee. That is unless the Nats vote collapses and he outpolls them. Hook may also not do as well this time around. It would seem that the ALP will come 4th. Also worth noting that 30% of ALP preferences went to the Nats last time. Preference leakages could be crucial. If Gee or the Nats tank then it could be clear on election night – otherwise a wid ride through the vote count. Watch this space!!

@redistributed i imagine it was the shooters who largely contributed to the Hooks vote actually. i imagine Gees vote came from the Liberal Democrats. given his position on the voice id imagine One Nation will preference the Nats given their history of trying to get rid of progressive liberals and the fact they dont want a hun parliament they want the Coalition in government. Hook cannot and will not beat the Nats. The only hope for the Nats to lose this seat is for Gee to finish in the top 2 against the Nats at which point it could be close

Pretty cool seat, Nats will get about 35-45% and through preference leakage and other jostling down the ticket that will be plenty, Gee coming second and the Nats falling below 35% would probably throw the seat into some doubt, PHON preferences will likely be stronger to the coalition this election so if their vote remains high that could be decisive too.

The poll conducted by climate 200 has the nats primary at 33%.

Put the nats last!!!

@Mick why? Don’t they represent real Australia?

I am still waiting for Mick to say that Labor have a chance in Maranoa ………

In the circumstances, if I was the Nats, I would be quite happy with 33%.
It is probably at their low range.
On that level they would be outpolling Gee quite comfortably.
After a several rounds of counting I can see a scenario of:

1. Nats
2. Hook
3. Gee
4. Labor

With ON prefs going to the Nats – but leaking lots. Greens to Hook – and leaking a fair bit too.
Labor prefs going to Hook and then Gee’s to the Nats who would then win.
The wild card in Calare will be preference leakage. There are a lot of small booths so getting HTV cards will be hard. I still see the Nats winning and from what I can see they have chosen a good candidate with a profile. Labor will battle to get a 15% primary though hard to see them getting under 10%. This is a seat worth keeping a close eye on during election night.

Nats 33
Hook 16
Gee. 27
Alp. 20
Other 10
Put the nats last helps everyone else
Hopefully the nats are placed 1st or
Last on the ballot paper

Yes We have a time machine and go.back
To. 1940 Labor are in the box seat. In
?Maranoa

I agree that this’ll be a close contest, pending primary votes of both Nats and Andrew Gee as well as preferences.

YouGov MRP polling is quite questionable. It shows:
NAT 46
IND 18
ALP 15
ONP 13

Both Nats and Independents drop 2% each. I doubt that Andrew Gee (as the sitting MP) and Kate Hook (a teal) will get a combined total of 18% when Hook herself got 20% last election.

The ONP vote seems inflated in that polling. They polled 8.3% last time, as their candidate was a well respected community figure – lifelong a Bathurst resident and business who received an OAM for her community work. It doesn’t seem she’s running again (they don’t have a candidate announced yet) so I don’t know how they’ll get 13%.

Ymick if you go back to 1940 Labor would actually stand for something and standing up for the working class. Now it’s all about activism

Back at the start of One Nation a few of the booths in Calare were among their best outside of Queensland. At either the 98 Federal or the state poll around then I remember booths in Orange being particularly strong for them.

Maybe that and the success of the Shooters recently means 13% is possible here.

@votante maybe people don’t know gee is not with the nats. Or that either he or hook are running. Those are the possible reasons I can think of.

This is a good example where MRP is a problematic application for Australia. Our politics is very splintered compared to comparable Westminster system countries – preferential voting probably has a lot to do with it. At this stage – and this is not just for Calare:
– we don’t know how many independents there will be , and how effective they may be
– we don’t know if Clive will cook up some new sort of UAP’
– we don’t know how many candidates ON can get on the ground.
– and is there still room and/ or time for any fringe parties to appear
– and in parts of Victoria, the VSP can get a decent vote.
So how can you really make a really plausible MRP prediction?

Mick might want to check your maths.

Nats 33
Hook 16
Gee. 27
Alp. 20
Other 10

That equals 106%. Also your suggesting the greens/onp vote will only be 10% despite the fact onp/grn and uap polled 16.8% in 2022. Gee isn’t gonna poll anywhere near the nats easpeciwlly with another ind/teal in the mix. I expect labor’s 2022 ote will drop especially after the Blayney gold mine decision. This is my prediction.

Nats 38
Hook 17
Gee. 20
Alp. 10
Other 15

Calare is experiencing high stress in household, rent and mortgage areas. Col is gonna be a major issue there. I don’t think the voters are gonna be concerned enough to want to hear about Hook climate crusade. My opinion Nat retain due to people wanting the steady hands of a coalition government. Gee could possibly win as he will get preferences from labor and the greens after hook. Her preferences will then splinter. Onp will be preferencing the nats for two reasons

1. They want a majority coalition government
2. Gee supported the voice. Something ONP oppposed

@redistributed they are VS not VSP. It’s just Victorian socialists. Not Victorian social party. Twill on the ballot anyway they are just listed vS.

Also I’m sure they polled that as a option it’s just part of other.

Forget how to vote cards – preferences in Calare are going to spray around like Ninja stars. Unless by some chance it is really clear cut, I dont know how the AEC will determine the election night 2cp cut. Unless they go straight to full preference count and they can’t really do that – as I understand it – until all the booths are in. And some in Calare are pretty big.

@john
Oops need to recalc

@John wouldn’t One Nation want a minority Coalition government so that they can potentially have more influence?

@nick g they have no mps in the lower house and likelY never will their only pm to ever make it to the lower house was Hanson.they don’t have the political clout to make unseat anyone just yet they may change in about a decade or more. One nation doesn’t want the coalition having to rely on other interests to govern interests that may conflict with their position so cannot influence how they run the govt and have nothing to gain from a minority govt and there is no guarantee gee or hook wouldn’t back labor. I mean look at Windsor and oak short they were what stopped abbott from being pm in 2010. they supported a majority coalition govt in qld recently too. Onp

The way for Labor to win here is to get a good enough vote in Bathurst Lithgow to balance 60/40 against Labor elsewhere. At the m9ment this is not happening and will not happen this election.
This is open as Gee Is the sitting mp and he has built up support in Bathurst / Lithgow which was not there at his first election.
Orange/ Mudgee is normally the most anti-labor. .But remember at the state level .. Orange is comfortably held by a right wing independent previous shooters and Fisher party. Maybe Gee is a softer choice for those who don’t vote Labor but dislike the nats?

@mick this will never go labor. Labor simply can’t muster a primary strong enough to challenge here. That’s just like saying the libs could win maribyrnong. Yes a centre right independent is more accurate than centre right. But I’ll agree on the last sentence.though anyone who don’t vote labor but disliked the nats probably voted for hook at last election. So he’ll only take votes off her. The only way for him to win is too take enough primary/personal vote to make the 2cp on the others preferences.hook can’t beat the nats

@Mick this won’t go to Labor ever. Bathurst and Lithgow aren’t Labor towns anymore. And it’s not Labor’s future either.

@labors future is the trash heap. They are fighting not only the liberals in outer surburban seats, the greens in the inner city and community independents in western sydney

I think Gee has a good chance of being relected as an independent, because he has a huge personal vote.

Coalition House vs Senate vote

Calare: 47.67% House 41.56% Senate
Wannon: 44.46% House 41.54% Senate
Groom: 43.72% House 42.11% Senate
Kooyong: 42.66% House 42.22% Senate
Cowper: 39.47% House 40.11% Senate
Wentworth: 40.48% House 42.87% Senate
Warringah: 33.35% House 41.21% Senate
Mackellar: 41.41% House 44.92% Senate
North Sydney: 38.05% House 39.86% Senate
Goldstein: 40.38% House 42.25% Senate
Bradfield: 45.05% House 45.09% Senate
Curtin: 41.33% House 43.69% Senate

I examined the differences between House and Senate Coalition votes in all seats that were Coalition vs independent contests in 2022, and found that Calare was where Coalition House vote outpolled Coalition Senate vote the greatest. Only Calare, Wannon, Groom and Kooyong had Coalition House vote higher than Coalition Senate vote. In Calare, the Coalition House vote was 6.11% higher than the Coalition Senate vote, despite independent Kate Hook polling 20.4%. If Hook had not contested, Gee’s primary vote as a Nationals candidate could have reached the mid 50s.

It’s clear that Gee has a huge personal vote and may well be re-elected as an independent due to his personal vote. Gee’s huge personal vote is not surprising given the fact that he was the MP for the overlapping state seat of Orange for 5 years and the MP for the seat of Calare for 6 years as of the 2022 federal election.

Calare will likely be an independent Gee vs Nationals contest. Preferences from Labor, Greens and Hook will heavily favour Gee over the Nationals. Hook is expected to get a lower primary vote than in 2022 due to her voters switching to Gee. The 18.1% independent primary vote for Calare recorded in the recent YouGov MRP poll treated Gee as an avearge independent, without considering the fact that Gee as a longstanding local member has huge personal votes.

What’s more, it’s pretty common for rural party MPs who defected to be an independent to be re-elected as an independent, including many facing corruption or criminal charges. Many of these defected MPs ended up getting a higher primary vote as an independent than as a party candidate, for example 2022 Kavel (SA state), 2001 Kennedy, 2023 Murray, Barwon and Orange (NSW state) etc.

Depending on how Labor, Greens and One Nation voters preference Hook relative to Gee, the order of exclusion may not be immediately clear from the order of primary votes. The count could end up being quite complex.

Agreed Joseph if gee makes the 2cp he has a good chance of reelection. But it will depend on who Labor preferences

Apparently the Nats are quite concerned about this seat

@maxim I heard that as well. Although I don’t think gee is gonna go to labor with minority that won’t work out well if he expects to hold his seat long. The problem for gee is the teal. The nats will win against the teal but I’m not sure against gee. It could be close but with the teals not indicating preferences they could spray. Gee will unlikely gain grn preferences as they back the teals first. I’m. Not sure which way labor will go but it may be a tactical decision. Then you have to take into account tactical voting but does that go to gee or the teal? One nation will likely prefernce the nats and then there’s Palmer a wildcard who may do a deal with gee. So this will be interesting it will depend how much primary gee can get and take off the nats. A combined gee/labor and hook/grn vote could be close for who makes 2nd place.

The coalition may also do a deal with labor for prefernces in seats where they are facing Ind threats.

I am starting to favour Gee here. The vote is going to split substantially due to the number of candidates, yet I think Gee will have a strong enough to gather preferences regardless of what order people drop out of the count. Everyone has a reason to preference him fairly highly.

I think he is more likely to hold than alot of the Teals (and I am not discounting them holding at all).

@lnp i agree the problem for gee is if the teal gets green preferences and theres no reason to suggest the greens will favour him over the teal it comes down to labor. onp will preferences the nats. if gee makes the 2cp he could win because he will get labor and grn preferences but the teal vote will spary. the other thing as i suggested there may be a deal done between labor and the coalition because labor is facing a similar threat

Calare consists of 3 parts
Mudgee /Wellington
Lithgow/ Bathurst
Orange
Orange was held by Mr Gee till he went federal. Now held by ind prev off
When Mr Gee first contested Calare his vote in Bathurst/Lithgow was such that this area would have voted narrowly Labor.
He has improved his vote within what is for the most part the state seat of. Bathurst.
People in Calare who don’t want a national… can now choose Someone else who can win
My guess is Mr Gee is best placed.
A put the nat last would work here

Mick this election will be a nat contest. If theteal makes the 2cp they will lose. If gee makes the 2cp it will be close. Gee and the teal will be guaranteed green preferences. Butlabor could be a wildcard but baring a deal they will support gee and the teal. ONP will support the nats.

I think the nats will get stuff all preferences from any one.
This is feeling like the state seats the independents ex off won.

ONP aren’t gonna preference gee or the teal. Preferences will be status quo they’ve been for the last few decades.

Left centre… 41%
Right onp uap nat 59%
Very close to the 2cp
Now Gee is a special part of the puzzle
Based on his personal vote.

I think Gee will draw some votes from the Teal just because he is no longer a Nat. Last time there were only six candidates – Nat, Labor, Hook, Greens, ON, UAP. This time with Gee we can make that 7 – Strumpets for Patriots replacing the UAP. The question is whether there will be some right wing nutties and Animal Justice at least. Every one of those little flows are going to count. One thing for certain is that it will be a wild count with preferences flying everywhere.

To win Gee needs to take votes from the right… preferably from the nats

Wondering if we might get something like…

NAT: 33
GEE: 24
Hook: 20
ALP: 12
PHON: 11

And how that would all washout, anyone else got a better idea?

Maxim

No Greens, No Strumpets

Greens would be 5 or 6. I would say 15 for ALP.

Strumpets 5
ON 7
Greens 5
Labor 13
Hook 20
Gee 22
Nats 28

Working through the above the big question will be where the Labor prefs go and Hook and Gee will be close. Probably Hook……
The big if is that preferences will fly and Calare has a lot of booths so it will be hard for anybody – possibly excepting the Nats – and with the Gee defection that is a big if – if booths will have HTVs. Possibly won’t be a result until full prefs distributed. However, might surprise if Gee or Nats romp in or collapse.