NAT 9.7% vs IND
Incumbent MP
Andrew Gee (Independent), since 2016. Previously state member for Orange, 2011-2016.
Geography
Central West NSW. Calare covers the towns of Bathurst, Lithgow, Blayney, Orange, Oberon, Mudgee and Wellington, as well as other areas around those towns.
Calare was first created for the 1906 election, replacing the abolished seat of Canobolas. The seat has been held by all political parties over the last century.
The seat was first won by Thomas Brown (ALP) in 1906. Brown had previously held Canobolas since 1901, and he held the seat until he was defeated in 1913 by Henry Pigott of the Commonwealth Liberal Party. He held the seat for the Liberals and the Nationalists until he was defeated by Thomas Lavelle (ALP) in 1919.
Lavelle was defeated in 1922 by Major General Neville Howse, who won the seat for the Nationalists. Pigott had also contested the seat unsuccessfully for the new Country Party. Howse won a Victoria Cross during the Boer War and went on to serve as a senior officer in the First World War.
Howse served as a minister in the Stanley Bruce government before losing his seat in 1929 to George Gibbons (ALP), who was defeated by Harold Thorby of the Country Party at the next election. Thorby had previously been a state minister and went on to serve as a minister in Joseph Lyons’ federal government.
Thorby was defeated by John Breen (ALP) in 1940, and Breen held the seat until his defeat in 1946 by John Howse (LIB), the son of the former member for the seat Neville Howse.
Howse junior held the seat until his resignation in 1960. John England of the Country Party won the seat in the following by-election, and held it until the 1975 election. The seat was then won by Sandy Mackenzie.
Sandy Mackenzie lost the seat to David Simmons (ALP) in 1983. Simmons served as a federal minister from 1989 to 1993, and retired at the 1996 election.
The seat was won in 1996 by former television journalist Peter Andren, running as an independent. Andren won the seat on a 29% primary vote in 1996, with the ALP, Nationals and Liberals all polling less. Andren won 63% of the two-party preferred vote against the Nationals.
Andren set out an independent path, pursuing progressive politics while promoting regional interests. He was re-elected in 1998, 2001 and 2004 with over 70% of the two-party preferred vote.
The 2007 election saw the seat of Calare effectively abolished in its existing form, and Andren announced plans to run for the Senate in New South Wales. However, he was diagnosed with cancer and cancelled his plans to run for the Senate and decided to retire. Andren died of cancer in early November 2007, and the seat was won by John Cobb (NAT), then a junior minister in the Howard government and Member for Parkes.
In 2010, Calare was recreated in its previous form, losing areas in the northwest of the state gained in 2007, and regaining those areas lost to Macquarie in 2007. Cobb increased his margin from 53.5% to 60.7%. He was re-elected again with a larger margin in 2013.
Cobb retired in 2016, and was succeeded by Nationals state MP Andrew Gee, who had held the overlapping state electorate of Orange since 2011. Gee was re-elected in 2019 and 2022.
Gee resigned from the Nationals at the end of 2022 after the party decided to oppose the 2023 Indigenous Voice referendum, and has served the remainder of his term as an independent.
Assessment
This is a hard seat to pick. Gee is a longstanding local member but this will be his first test as an independent. He also faced a strong challenge from a local independent in 2022 who will be running again in 2025. It is quite possible that both independents could poll quite strongly and make the count quite complex.
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
| Andrew Gee | Nationals | 51,161 | 47.7 | +3.0 |
| Kate Hook | Independent | 21,891 | 20.4 | +20.4 |
| Sarah Elliott | Labor | 16,252 | 15.1 | -7.0 |
| Stacey Whittaker | One Nation | 9,057 | 8.4 | +8.4 |
| Kay Nankervis | Greens | 4,891 | 4.6 | -1.5 |
| Adam John Jannis | United Australia | 4,067 | 3.8 | +0.6 |
| Informal | 4,455 | 4.0 | -1.7 |
2022 two-candidate-preferred result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
| Andrew Gee | Nationals | 64,047 | 59.7 | |
| Kate Hook | Independent | 43,272 | 40.3 |
2022 two-party-preferred result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
| Andrew Gee | Nationals | 70,245 | 65.5 | +2.2 |
| Sarah Elliott | Labor | 37,074 | 34.5 | -2.2 |
Booths have been divided into six parts. Polling places in the three main towns, Orange, Bathurst and Lithgow, have been grouped together. The remaining booths have been split into north, south-east and south-west.
The Nationals won a majority of the two-candidate-preferred vote against independent Kate Hook in five out of six areas, ranging from 53.1% in Orange to 66.7% in the south-west. The two-candidate-preferred vote was perfectly tied in Bathurst.
Labor came third, with a primary vote ranging from 9.1% in the south-west to 23.5% in Lithgow.
| Voter group | ALP prim | NAT 2CP | Total votes | % of votes |
| Orange | 13.0 | 53.1 | 12,161 | 11.3 |
| South-West | 9.1 | 66.7 | 9,175 | 8.5 |
| North | 18.3 | 63.9 | 8,906 | 8.3 |
| South-East | 14.1 | 62.0 | 8,034 | 7.5 |
| Bathurst | 17.1 | 50.0 | 7,428 | 6.9 |
| Lithgow | 23.5 | 55.7 | 3,408 | 3.2 |
| Pre-poll | 15.2 | 60.5 | 49,126 | 45.8 |
| Other votes | 17.0 | 60.4 | 9,081 | 8.5 |
Election results in Calare at the 2022 federal election
Toggle between two-candidate-preferred votes (Nationals vs Independent), two-party-preferred votes and primary votes for the Nationals, independent candidate Kate Hook and Labor.
Think you have the alp vote too low
If Gee gets the benefit of tactical voting by non-Nationals voters and/or solid preference flows from Labor and Kate Hook, then there’s a good pathway for him.
Parties like ONP and Trumpets of Patriots are populist and anti-establishment. Generally their party preferences flow to the Nationals over Labor. Their preference flows will be wild cards.
It’s worth watching if Gee gets over 25% on primaries and the Nats get under 40%.
Nats probably need close to 40% primary vote to win.
From what I can see they haven’t got that.
As long as Gee ends up in the final 2cp and the left/ centre preferences votes go strongly enough strongly enough against the nats then he wins.
A put nats last would go well
Mick
The ALP only got 15% last time so lower than that.
Votante
Gee got something like 48% last time.
Combined might be a bit higher but probably no more than the low 50s. And that will be the ‘Gee is no longer a Nat’ vote. I really do think the clincher will be where Labors votes go after they are in 4th place. That is not clear at this stage – and might not be until votes counted.
I’d have thought Gee’s personal popularity would have taken a hit by him leaving the Nationals over an issue that less than 30% of his electorate – and presumably very few of the people that voted for him – agreed with him on.
The vote against the voice was 60/40 throughout Australia. Was high no on my electorate of Blaxland but this will not
Stop a solid Labor victory for Jason clare.
There is no reason why s similar situation cannot occur in.Calare.
@maxim and redistributed NAts vote wont be that low id say 37 minimum. gee and hook wont poll 20% each they will probably get 35% between them
35 % +10 +6 = 51
37 + crazy = 49
On your figures ultra marginal
To try to factor in leakage just added primary for all no leak.
Nats I think will not get to 37%
33 to 35
Gee 53 nat. 47
Still not convinced Gee makes the count if the Labor and Green preferences are strong enough to Hook
I think it’s likely Gee is in the last two. If so he not only gets 80% teal and centre left preferences, but I reckon the One Nation and Trumpets split at worst 40/60 against, more likely close to even and possibly even slightly his way.
Strumpets will mainly go to ON but lots will go to everybody else
Greens will split slightly more to Hook and slightly less to Labor with a bit going to Gee and smaller bits going to Nats and ON
ON will have largest share to Nats but reasonable sizes to Hook and Gee, slightly less to ALP
Its when Labor goes out at this it gets interesting – to Gee or to Hook? – flows will be loose.
If Gee, then flows come from Hook and Gee wins. If Hook, then his prefs to Nats but I would say leakage to Hook but Nats win.
HTV cards won’t mean much, this will be free flowing preferences like something Tasmanian!!
In green example
40% hook
40% Labor
10% gee
10% any other
In that example without leakages
Gee gets something like 90%
His job from his view point is to stay on the 2cp.
@maxim agreed if labor and greens preference hook shell make the 2cp. in that case nat win.
@LNp onp preferences will be about 75/25 id say ONP will prefernce nats given Nats stance on the voice.
@redistributed the wildcard here is labor and the libs horsetrade to cut out the inds. though i doubt they will help them in Fowler the coalition will need help in Cowper, Calare and the north shore seats. Labor will require help in Blaxland, Franklin, Bean, Canberra, Wills, macnamara(maybe), possibly even Barton. Carbone could run in McMahon but i doubt the libs will help bowen as im pretty sure they want to see the back of him.
Nats will beat Hook easily its Gee that could upset here. if he makes the 2cp it will be close.
@mick for the greens it will be about 60% hook 25% labor. 8% gee and 7% other. greens will preference hook 2.
Why would the Coalition want to see the back of such a valuable asset to them such as Bowen?
The problem as others have mentioned is that with so many polling places and the distances involved in this seat you will be hard pressed to find HTVCs for the minor parties and possibly the major candidates too, so it’s pretty hard to make a call on preferences, if the Nats poll below 38% and Gee makes the count it could be all over, but any scenario where Hook makes the count and the Nats are pretty much safe I’d say
@maxim the same reason they preferenced Greens over trad. Country before party. Also Carbone could be called upon for support in a minority parliament. also id say 35% is there minimum floor. they will get the bulk of ONP and mayb ToP. the teals preferences will spray due to no preferences given. also again if the coalition horsetrade with Labor Nats will win.
Gee’s likelihood of making the 2CP depends on Hook losing votes and him coming second on primary votes.
People voted for Hook as she was the sole independent last election and non-Nationals voters saw her as having a chance and saw her as an option to place their first preference. She can use the word ‘independent’ in her marketing but it doesn’t have the same amount of lustre as last time because she’s not the main independent anymore.
It appears that Andrew Gee has been taking tips in social media from Angus Taylor.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2025-03-29/andrew-gee-facebook-gaffe-federal-election/105112498
Gee, that’s a Well-Done Angus.
When travelling through I noticed Hook probably had the most signs up, followed by the Nats, I dropped into the Nats campaign office in Bathurst and obviously they didn’t reveal much but they honestly didn’t sound confident
Thinking they will gain a sufficient lead on primaries that a lack of preference discipline amongst a crowded field sees them home, particularly if Hook makes the final count
Just the Bathurst area or a broader part of the seat Maxim?
Lithgow as well, but didn’t make it to Orange or go anywhere further north
Gee to win
Nat loss
There are lots of hook signs and they seem to be working a strong campaign (I’ve seen them door knocking and waving signs about on the main roads).
I can’t same the same for the nats or Andrew but I can’t see the conservative electorate putting her up over Andrew.
Sam has had Dutton(Bathurst 1000), nampijinpa prince (2x?) and little proud (2x) in the electorate. They definitely want the seat.
Just some random thoughts from what I’ve seen on the ground.
Labor have Andrew Gee as #2 on their how to vote card. As Labor might come 4th that could be quite significant. Kate Hook #3. Though with lots of small booths Labor are going to struggle to get volunteers.
where are labors htv cards?
As expected Labor is preferencing Gee ahead of Hook here.
This one has thrown out all the smart national pollsters with their BS distribution models?
https://www.howtovote.org.au/calare
Also Labor voters are the best tactical voters in Australia. I wonder if it is because of their significant IQ lead over Liberals & Nationals. So Gee will have a good part of the Labor tactical vote which went to Hook last time.
Labor preferences + labor tactical vote pushes him into first or second & he wins on ABC vote.
Bad luck for Hook – but in 2 horse (party) race always back self interest?
By the way what will this do to the columns of marching men all the Canberra press gallery journos (who spend all day talking to each other) have drawn up in Dutton’s camp if the Parliament is hung?
Andrew Gee and SFF must’ve worked out a preference swap.
Andrew Gee HTV
1 Andrew Gee 2 Kate Hook 3 SFF
SFF HTV
1 SFF 2 Andrew Gee 3 PHON
I’m saying nat retain now gee is gonna miss out
Funny, with Labor prefs I’m thinking now that he’ll hold.
think gee can hold on here with ALP preferences
right now im predicting that the independent tilts in NSW will succeed (calare, cowper, bradfield) and the ones in VIC fall short (wannon, monash)
Yea but grns are splitting the ind vote by preferencong the teal.
DV
The Greens vote in Calare is pretty low. The Greens preferencing Hook will put her in front of Labor and then they will go on to preference Gee. The only way Hook can make the final is if the Nats collapse or Gee collapses and neither is likely to happen. Hook may lose votes to Gee now that he is an indie. Where it would get interesting is if Hook doesn’t make final 3 and her preferences would probably favour Labor and/or Gee. On balance this is probably Andrew Gee’s election to lose. I call this as a Gee win.
I am really interested in the notional margin versus Labor in this seat.This used to be a marginal seat. The last notional margin was almost as high as the 2013 one. If Nats get a further notional swing here it could exceed what they got at the 1966 landslide.
So Andrew Gee is getting the Shooters’ preferences & Labor’s preferences? As Ken Howard would have said “Put down the glasses it’s Gee by London to a brick”?
Roughly this seat used to be the 3 major towns
Orange
Bathurst
Lithgow
And Orange voting nats 60/40
Bathurst and Lithgow balancing that to create a marginal seat but post 2010 these sums have changed to make this better than 15% marginal nats
Latest polling is abysmal for the nats and hook. I imagine both their campaigns are extremely nervous.
The polling Blue car refers to is the YouGov/ACM poll, which has Gee winning on 2PP 57/43. First prefs were 25 Nat, 23 Gee, 15 Hook, 14 ON.
I’m quite cautious about how accurate those numbers actually are.
Interesting figures North by West. If replicated, it would mean a 23% swing away from the Nationals. Labor might be on single figures. Yes, take the polling with a grain of salt.
There was another poll floating around today that showed Labor on 8%. They only had 15% vote last time but single figures – really? If so, it a whole region where Labor have decided just to give up. If you start to basically pull out of regions sooner or later you can’t be regarded as a national party. The Teals have eaten Liberal seats but they have also eaten Labor votes – methinks the seats might be easier to get back than the votes. After all why would you join the Labor Party or volunteer when it is clear they don’t care about your region.
@ Redistributed,
We had an interesting chat in the Northern Tablelands thread recently. Maybe Calare will become like the Northern tablelands and Labor will become extinct in those areas. If the Teals hold their seats for 3 terms we may find that by the mid 2030s labor will only poll in the teens even in a good election.
Our discussion below
https://www.tallyroom.com.au/55885/comment-page-1#comments
All the polls here I’ve seen seem inaccurate for One Nation. I believe someone here made a comment that ONP was helped by their candidate in 2022 who was a well-respected business owner in Bathurst who has an OAM for her work. Most of the polls I’ve seen here seem to have their vote around 13-14%, which is odd considering how their candidate has lower profile, as well as the competitiveness between Farraway, Hook and Gee.
The polling here overall looks like a dog’s breakfast. This will be incredibly close.
If alp vote is lower than expected suggests there is a lot of tactical voting here….. this suggests an extra independent in parliament
Be interesting to see how it ultimately lands. I think the lack of profile for Farraway outside of Bathurst will significantly impact his ultimate votes in areas like Lithgow (where the views on Nuclear power are mixed to say the least), and even potentially in the Orange end of the electorate.
I expect it’ll be Gee and Farraway that make the 2PP count, but a relatively comfortable win in the end for Gee. But as many of the excellent comments above show, the preferences make it a messy one to unpick this time around.
Gateway will make the count but against gee or hook is the question
@Votante: Where did you find Gee’s HTV? I could not find it on his Facebook page.
I found a photo on Facebook or Instagram of his supporters holding his HTV cards. I zoomed in to see the ordering.
Does anyone have HTVs for Hook and Gee? Are they preferencing each other above Farraway?
I saw some numbers suggesting that if either of them had run as the only independent, they’d win in a canter, but as they’re splitting the protest/indy vote Farraway is in with a chance. I would expect they’d attract different voter types though.
I suspect that Andrew Gee might pick up voters that he did not have as a Nat candidate last time. These will probably come from Hook and Labor. I can see Hook making little or no progress from her vote last time even go backwards as tactical voters go for the smarter money. It will be one to watch on Saturday night.