Calare – Australia 2025

Think you have the alp vote too low

If Gee gets the benefit of tactical voting by non-Nationals voters and/or solid preference flows from Labor and Kate Hook, then there’s a good pathway for him.

Parties like ONP and Trumpets of Patriots are populist and anti-establishment. Generally their party preferences flow to the Nationals over Labor. Their preference flows will be wild cards.

It’s worth watching if Gee gets over 25% on primaries and the Nats get under 40%.

Nats probably need close to 40% primary vote to win.
From what I can see they haven’t got that.
As long as Gee ends up in the final 2cp and the left/ centre preferences votes go strongly enough strongly enough against the nats then he wins.
A put nats last would go well

Mick
The ALP only got 15% last time so lower than that.
Votante
Gee got something like 48% last time.
Combined might be a bit higher but probably no more than the low 50s. And that will be the ‘Gee is no longer a Nat’ vote. I really do think the clincher will be where Labors votes go after they are in 4th place. That is not clear at this stage – and might not be until votes counted.

I’d have thought Gee’s personal popularity would have taken a hit by him leaving the Nationals over an issue that less than 30% of his electorate – and presumably very few of the people that voted for him – agreed with him on.

The vote against the voice was 60/40 throughout Australia. Was high no on my electorate of Blaxland but this will not
Stop a solid Labor victory for Jason clare.
There is no reason why s similar situation cannot occur in.Calare.

@maxim and redistributed NAts vote wont be that low id say 37 minimum. gee and hook wont poll 20% each they will probably get 35% between them

35 % +10 +6 = 51
37 + crazy = 49
On your figures ultra marginal
To try to factor in leakage just added primary for all no leak.
Nats I think will not get to 37%
33 to 35
Gee 53 nat. 47

Still not convinced Gee makes the count if the Labor and Green preferences are strong enough to Hook

I think it’s likely Gee is in the last two. If so he not only gets 80% teal and centre left preferences, but I reckon the One Nation and Trumpets split at worst 40/60 against, more likely close to even and possibly even slightly his way.

Strumpets will mainly go to ON but lots will go to everybody else
Greens will split slightly more to Hook and slightly less to Labor with a bit going to Gee and smaller bits going to Nats and ON
ON will have largest share to Nats but reasonable sizes to Hook and Gee, slightly less to ALP
Its when Labor goes out at this it gets interesting – to Gee or to Hook? – flows will be loose.
If Gee, then flows come from Hook and Gee wins. If Hook, then his prefs to Nats but I would say leakage to Hook but Nats win.
HTV cards won’t mean much, this will be free flowing preferences like something Tasmanian!!

In green example
40% hook
40% Labor
10% gee
10% any other
In that example without leakages
Gee gets something like 90%
His job from his view point is to stay on the 2cp.

@maxim agreed if labor and greens preference hook shell make the 2cp. in that case nat win.
@LNp onp preferences will be about 75/25 id say ONP will prefernce nats given Nats stance on the voice.
@redistributed the wildcard here is labor and the libs horsetrade to cut out the inds. though i doubt they will help them in Fowler the coalition will need help in Cowper, Calare and the north shore seats. Labor will require help in Blaxland, Franklin, Bean, Canberra, Wills, macnamara(maybe), possibly even Barton. Carbone could run in McMahon but i doubt the libs will help bowen as im pretty sure they want to see the back of him.

Nats will beat Hook easily its Gee that could upset here. if he makes the 2cp it will be close.

@mick for the greens it will be about 60% hook 25% labor. 8% gee and 7% other. greens will preference hook 2.

Why would the Coalition want to see the back of such a valuable asset to them such as Bowen?

The problem as others have mentioned is that with so many polling places and the distances involved in this seat you will be hard pressed to find HTVCs for the minor parties and possibly the major candidates too, so it’s pretty hard to make a call on preferences, if the Nats poll below 38% and Gee makes the count it could be all over, but any scenario where Hook makes the count and the Nats are pretty much safe I’d say

@maxim the same reason they preferenced Greens over trad. Country before party. Also Carbone could be called upon for support in a minority parliament. also id say 35% is there minimum floor. they will get the bulk of ONP and mayb ToP. the teals preferences will spray due to no preferences given. also again if the coalition horsetrade with Labor Nats will win.

Gee’s likelihood of making the 2CP depends on Hook losing votes and him coming second on primary votes.

People voted for Hook as she was the sole independent last election and non-Nationals voters saw her as having a chance and saw her as an option to place their first preference. She can use the word ‘independent’ in her marketing but it doesn’t have the same amount of lustre as last time because she’s not the main independent anymore.