ALP 3.3%
Incumbent MP
No incumbent MP.
Geography
Bullwinkel covers parts of eastern Perth and regional areas immediately to the east. The electorate stretches from Greenmount and Forrestfield out to Grass Valley and Beverley.
Bullwinkel covers the Beverley, Kalamunda, Mundaring, Northam, Toodyay and York council areas, and parts of the Armadale, Gosnells and Swan council areas.
Redistribution
Bullwinkel is a new seat, taking in parts of Burt, Canning, Durack, Hasluck, O’Connor and Swan. Almost half of the population of Bullwinkel was previously in Hasluck, while another 22% were in Swan.
History
Bullwinkel is a new electorate created as a marginal Labor seat, primarily taking areas from the seat of Hasluck. Hasluck had alternated between Labor and Liberal from 2001 to 2010, before being held by Ken Wyatt for four terms from 2010 to 2022. Labor’s Tania Lawrence won the seat in 2022 amidst a huge swing to Labor across Western Australia.
The areas now contained in Bullwinkel have tended to hew closely to the statewide two-party-preferred vote in Western Australia, although it often leans slightly towards the Liberal Party.
Assessment
Bullwinkel is a very marginal seat, even with the very strong Labor performance in Western Australia. Labor doesn’t have a sitting MP to defend the seat, so there is a good chance the seat will swing back to the Liberal Party and they could win here.
| Party | % |
| Labor | 34.4 |
| Liberal | 32.5 |
| Greens | 10.7 |
| Informal | 5.5 |
| One Nation | 4.1 |
| United Australia | 2.7 |
| Western Australia Party | 2.5 |
| Independent | 1.7 |
| Federation Party | 1.6 |
| Nationals | 1.3 |
| Liberal Democrats | 1.1 |
| Australian Christians | 1.0 |
| Animal Justice | 0.6 |
| Great Australian Party | 0.4 |
| Informed Medical Options | 0.1 |
2022 two-party-preferred result
| Party | % |
| Labor | 53.3 |
| Liberal | 46.7 |
Booths in Bullwinkel have been split into four parts. The sparsely populated east has been grouped together. The urban booths in the Perth area have been split into north-west, south-west and west.
Labor won a majority of the two-party-preferred vote in the western areas, ranging from 53.5% in the south-west to 55.7% in the north-west. The Liberal Party polled 53.9% in the east.
The Greens came third, with a primary vote ranging from 8.7% in the east to 14.1% in the south-west.
| Voter group | GRN prim | ALP 2PP | Total votes | % of votes |
| West | 11.3 | 55.3 | 16,811 | 17.6 |
| North-West | 13.7 | 55.7 | 14,881 | 15.6 |
| South-West | 14.1 | 53.5 | 6,034 | 6.3 |
| East | 8.7 | 46.1 | 5,071 | 5.3 |
| Pre-poll | 10.1 | 52.8 | 31,503 | 33.0 |
| Other votes | 11.3 | 52.5 | 21,042 | 22.1 |
Election results in Bullwinkel at the 2022 federal election
Toggle between two-party-preferred votes and primary votes for Labor, the Liberal Party and the Greens.
@bird and additional 2 senators per state would be an increase of 24 lower house mps. It would be 8 for NSW 6 for Vic 5 for Qld 3 for WA and 2 for SA
If we use the median result of normal 2019 and the over inflated 2022 result. We get a marginal Liberal seat. So by that the Liberals should win here. Just.
Regarding Mia Davies’s chances, I’d say they are slim. As covered before, most of Bullwinkel’s population is outside her state electorate of Central Wheatbelt. There is a narrow pathway however and it depends on preferences and the Labor vote.
The last WA National in federal parliament was Tony Crook. He came second on primaries in 2010 but preferences helped him defeat the Liberal MP Wilson Tuckey. As a WA National, he was a crossbencher rather than part of the Coalition.
I reckon Labor and the Greens direct preferences to the Nationals ahead of the Liberals to minimise the growth of the Coalition party room. It would be interesting to see how minor right-wing parties direct preferences. Davies would only win if she beats Labor on the 3PP count and gets most preferences. I doubt she will come first on primaries.
@vitante no way labor misses out on the 2pp here
Mia Davies is apparently aspiring to be the deputy Prime Minister. might be hard to achieve given the Nats in WA have no standing with the Liberal Party and while she may be able to sit with the Nationals she wont be able to lead them(???) or become deputy PM
What’s the old saying John? If you don’t back yourself, no-one else will!
Getting ahead of herself perhaps – needs to get elected first considering she is unlikely to crack more than a 15% primary.
@Huxley exactly why do you think all the labor mps are saying we are gonna be reelected in majority
Does anybody have any polling for Bullwinkel? Im interested to what Mia Davies chances would be , she would need to pick up a large portion of the Liberals voter base
The last polling I saw was 52-48 Labor over Nat. That was before the announcement of the lib and lab cnadidates
Given today’s Newspoll story in the Australian,it appears hopes of WA saving the Government are misplaced, and turns the odds in this seat towards the coalition.
@Darth Vader, I agree. I’m sensing Labor makes the 2PP but is unlikely to win.
I take 2PP polling with a grain of salt particularly since this is (or looks like) a three-way seat. It only make assumptions of preference flows including between LIB, NAT and ALP as well preference flows from minor parties to either of the three main parties.
If wa swings back harder then expect and Dutton wins more then bullwinkel Curtin and tangey he’ll be in the lodge
Nats cannot win
Alp vs libs
3% marginal toss up
I wouldn’t say can’t win but I’d say unlikely. 51-52% tpp to libs
there are reports laors vote here has sipped to 15% into 3rd place. that would likely end up in a NAT v LIB contest.
A good indication of result possible is if Labor retains or goes very close in Darling Range / Kalamunda
Labor did not do that bad in the Avon Valley last federal election… Northam vote was good.
they will lose both or close to is. labors margin in bullwinkel is much smaller. labor cant win bullwinkel in my opinion now.
Rough state figures Bullwinkel on
2021 result
Count all darling range 1/4 @ 64% 17
” Kalamunda ‘ ” 17
Half central wheat belt @ 45. 22
Half midland. @ 70. 35
Work in progress…..
@mick labors vote in central wheatbelt was 39% tpp and 33% up from 19% in 2017 expect it to be back to 2017 levels come saturday. labor cant win bullwinkel in my opinon based on the fact they will get hammered in at least 3 of those seats and back to around 50% in midland.
Central Wheatbelt total figure alp vote is indeed about 40% but the part in Bullwinkel was half and the Avon Valley centred round Northam the more pro Labor part of the seat.
still your basing this on a vote that hyperinflated by a popular wa premier, covid and anit morrison voting. this time around things like CoL, live sheep export bans, threats to ban or expand mining and gas exploration will be centre of mind for WA voters.
No took out the 2022 figures for
Federal
The Avon Valley towns
Alp 3556. 47%
Lib 4017. 535
About 600 votes
so which election were those results based on?
Federal 2022
These are better than the state figures
For Labor.
In this electorate each 1000 votes equals 1% so. .the Avon Valley towns made a difference of a bit over 0.6%
I expect Mia Davies to poll better here but is only about 7 % of Bullwinkel also her preferences will spray all over the place.
When 93% of the electorate is urban no
Way the nats can win.
@mick reports that labors primary is down to 15% behind liberal and the nats so that would mean her vote is greater then 15%. and the first poll that came out had her in a 2 way race with labor. it would mean there preferences will likely be distributed and they will probably preference davies to hurt the libs unless the libs are able to find somewhere labor needs theres hope for her yet. if the teal runs in fremantle then that could possibly help the libs here
and again your quoting labors fgiures at an unusually large high tide vote whose factors are now all gone and are replaced by factors that will hurt labor
@john
At 53% then drops to 15% does not sound right .electorate level polls tend to be wrong.
We might get a rough indication from state figures… on state figures I expect Labor to win Bullwinkel.
@mick thats 15% primary… the 53% was 2pp im just reporting what the poll said. on state figures i dont expect to win bullwinkel. and it wont matter wa state figures are always higher the federal figures. labor wont win bulwinkel you heard it ere first
so at a 15% primary with Libs on 41% and nats on 22%. Labor simply cant win. even if labor were too make it into th 2pp against he lib off of green and minor party preferences libs would be elected on nat preferences. however if it were nat vs lib it could get interesting an dwould be really close
This seat covers Thornlie and Kalamundra
This is at least 35% of the seat.
Will give greater than 15% primary alp all by itself.
Suspect the poll is wrong
tomorrow state election will give a better idea of the vote here and across other federal seats. if labor lose darling range and kalamunda they wont win bullwinkel
Nats polled 9% in Kalamunda and 6% in Darling Range, metropolitan seats within Bullwinkel. Not sure what the implications are for Bullwinkel i think Kalamunda is a good result for the Nats
The best alp part of Central wheat belt
Is Northam. About 50% of central wheat belt is in bullwinkel… Labor lost by 6oo votes there. Assume impact is 800 –
Approx 0.8%.
Darling range was won (27% in Bullwinkel)
Kalamundra lost 53_47
Thornlie safe labor
If those are good returns for the Nats, I don’t see any reason for them to be competitive in this seat.
The WA Nats didn’t get over 10% in primary votes at either of the encompassing state seats yesterday. The Nats got 4% in Forrestfield.
Darling range 60_40 alp 27%
Thornlie. 70/30 alp 100%
Kalamundra. 49/51 alp 100%
These are the major part of the electorate
Alp vote starts- 0.8 (Avon valley)
See prev post get a Labor win of at least
7% here for Bullwinkel.
That is double the nominal 3% alp margin
I would say that discounting these state figures by half Labor has an excellent chance in Bullwinkel
Mick. Yeah, on state results, Labor would win Bullwinkel but bear in mind that Fed Labor isn’t as popular as WA Labor. Also, there is an anticipated correction of Fed Labor’s vote in the outer suburbs and regions.
Mia Davies has a high profile but that could only get her so far since most voters were not in her old state electorate. Also, as I mentioned earlier, the Nats didn’t get past single figures in primary votes in either state seat in Bullwinkel.
Forgot Forrestfield 55/45 alp 100%
This does not change my analysis
Still Bullwinkel easily retained on state figures… with a dilution this is still alp held federally
I get about 57% 2pp alp vote in Bullwinkel based on state figures. I haven’t got the Northam figures Northam on the waec site but this rural part in Bullwinkel is only
7% of the electorate.
The other 93% is urban…Mia cannot win if you decrease the alp vote by say 5% to account for the wa alp being more popular then the federal alp..they still win by about 2%
A correction to my earlier comment – “The WA Nats didn’t get over 10% in primary votes at either of the encompassing state seats yesterday. The Nats got 4% in Forrestfield.”
I should’ve mentioned that I was referring to seats outside of Central Wheatbelt. The Nats retained Central Wheatbelt.
Earlier on, I posted that most of Bullwinkel’s population is outside the state electorate of Central Wheatbelt. Most of Bullwinkel’s population is outer suburban.
Labor won’t win here mick I’ll guarantee that. My guess is 30% liberal 30% labor 15-20% Nat. 10% green 7% onp. Rest to others
@ john
You are too optimistic.
State
Forestfield (all) 55/45 alp
Thornlie. ” 70/30 alp
Kalamunda. ” 51/49 lib
Darling range (27) 60/40 Labor
Central wheatbelt (50) hard to tell. But assume it is 1.5 negative against Labor
This does not each such a low 15 % from being competive 2pp 53%
STATE RESULTS MEAN NOTHING. or Labor would have won every federal seat WA in 2022. wa stae labor and roger cook are popular enough to get elected Albo and Federal labor are very unpopular. Labor will not win Bullwinkel. they will also have problems in Hasluck and Pearce. also Bullwinkel has no incumbent member.
I believe that was supposed to be 30% Labor from John, not 10-15%. Though declaring that Labor will not win 2 months out from the election is more than a tad presumptuous. It’s still a tight marginal even if a Liberal leaning one.
To be clear, I do expect a Liberal win, but it’s not a lock and it’s way too early to make such claims.
That’s a bit of an exaggeration – state and federal always bleed into each other a bit, it’s just not the only factor. Incumbency (and their popularity/unpopularity) or lack thereof also matters as do the relevant state and federal issues at their respective elections.
For 2022 plenty attributed McGowan as a factor for example to Labor’s success there. Maybe Pierce, Hasluck and Swan were always going to be won by Labor as a backlash to Scomo, but Tangney and the close call of Moore likely may not have occurred without the state boost.
On Bullwinkel, Labor’s lack of incumbency this time round will most likely tip it to the Coalition. The closest example I’d use would be Burt in 2016 – notionally Liberal with a 6% margin upon its creation but easily fell to Labor.
@John But just the other day you were saying that if the state LNP government is doing their job and supporting their communities you’d think that it would flow on federally and help them win seats like Moreton which is actually out of reach for them in this cycle, yet in WA when state Labor does well you’re saying it’s irrelevant, aka State vs Federal?
You can’t have it both ways just to fit the narrative for the Liberals whichever way you want it. Doesn’t work like that.
For what it’s worth, Bullwinkel is in play but it’s far from certain who will win it until we get to the campaigning stage. Right now I’d say Liberals are favourites but that’s also due to the Nationals (with Mia Davies) propping up their prospects.
“STATE RESULTS MEAN NOTHING”, bleats the fellow who confidently predicted the Liberals would do better federally on the back of winning a landslide eight seats in the WA state election.
@adda the 15% was what was quoted in a recent poll for Bullwinkel. which showed 41% liberal 22% national and 15% labor a drop of 21%. off their primary.
@WL in 2022 there were more factors in play then just McGowan. There was the scomo factor both his personal dispaproval and his anti wa stnace during covid along with the anti china rhectoric that hurt them more in tangey. The problem with Burt was that like Bullwinkel it had no incumbent and was based on both a good lib vote at the landslide liberal election of 2013 and also this is around the time people were just waiting to elect mark mcgowan. by that time the libs had gone backwards federally in wa and also lost Cowan a the same election. the swing in Burt was massive compared to the rest of the state i i reckon the same will happen to Labor in Bullwinkel.
@tommo the difference is that the federal govt is labor and people will be voting against the labor federal govt in both. its different when you have 2 different sides of politcs. a federal govt wich is unpopular and a state govt on a honeymoon can absolutely gonna effect the vote it also helps when you can send a popular premier to bash the unpopular pm to help your vote the same as what happened in wa in 2022.
Bullwinkel will fall
Tangney will stay
Curtin will be tight
Pearce will stay, but will have a significant swing