ALP 5.3%
Incumbent MP
Julian Hill, since 2016.
Geography
South-eastern suburbs of Melbourne. Bruce covers northern parts of the Greater Dandenong and Casey council areas, along with a small part of the Monash council area. Suburbs include Berwick, Dandenong, Keysborough, Endeavour Hills, Hallam and Narre Warren.
Redistribution
Bruce expanded south-east, taking in Berwick from La Trobe and parts of Cranbourne North from Holt. These changes cut the Labor margin from 6.6% to 5.3%.
History
The seat of Bruce has existed since the 1955 election. Prior to 1996 it was a relatively safe Liberal seat, but demographic and boundary changes have seen the seat become a marginal Labor seat.
The seat was first won in 1955 by Liberal candidate Billy Snedden. Snedden served as a Cabinet minister from 1964 to 1972, serving as Billy McMahon’s Treasurer from 1971 until the government’s defeat in 1972. Snedden was elected Leader of the Liberal Party, and served in the role for the first two years of the Whitlam government. He used the Coalition’s Senate majority to block the Whitlam government’s budget, triggering the 1974 election, which he lost.
Snedden lost the Liberal leadership in early 1975, and was elected Speaker of the House of Representatives in 1976 after the election of the Fraser government. He served in the role for the entirety of the Fraser government, and after the defeat of the government in 1983 he retired from Parliament.
The 1983 Bruce by-election was won by the Liberal Party’s Ken Aldred. Aldred had previously held the seat of Henty from 1975 to 1980, when he was defeated. Aldred held Bruce until 1990, when he moved to the seat of Deakin, and held it until 1996.
Bruce was held by the Liberal Party’s Julian Beale from 1990 to 1996, when he lost to the ALP’s Alan Griffin. Griffin held Bruce for the next twenty years.
Griffin served as a shadow minister from 1998 to the election of the Rudd government in 2007, when he was appointed Minister for Veterans’ Affairs. He left the ministry after the 2010 election. Griffin retired in 2016.
Labor’s Julian Hill won Bruce in 2016, and was re-elected in 2019 and 2022.
- Sam Anderson (Trumpet of Patriots)
- Wendy Birchall (Family First)
- Bianca Colecchia (One Nation)
- Rhonda Garad (Greens)
- Julian Hill (Labor)
- Zahid Safi (Liberal)
- Christine Skrobo (Libertarian)
Assessment
Bruce is a marginal Labor seat, but may be out of reach for the Liberal Party.
Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing | Redist |
Julian Hill | Labor | 39,516 | 41.5 | -6.6 | 40.2 |
James Moody | Liberal | 28,837 | 30.3 | -5.4 | 31.7 |
Matthew Kirwan | Greens | 9,273 | 9.7 | +2.1 | 9.7 |
Matt Babet | United Australia | 8,299 | 8.7 | +4.6 | 8.5 |
Christine Skrobo | Liberal Democrats | 4,821 | 5.1 | +5.1 | 4.7 |
Hayley Deans | One Nation | 4,544 | 4.8 | +3.8 | 4.7 |
Others | 0.4 | ||||
Informal | 4,321 | 4.3 | -0.8 |
2022 two-party-preferred result
Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing | Redist |
Julian Hill | Labor | 53,920 | 56.6 | -0.7 | 55.3 |
James Moody | Liberal | 41,370 | 43.4 | +0.7 | 44.7 |
Booths in Bruce have been divided into four parts: central, east, south-east and west.
Labor won a majority of the two-party-preferred vote in all four areas, ranging from 51.8% in the east to 62% in the west.
The Greens came third, with a primary vote ranging from 9.1% in the centre to 11% in the east and south-east.
Voter group | GRN prim | ALP 2PP | Total votes | % of votes |
South-East | 10.9 | 52.7 | 14,548 | 13.9 |
Central | 9.1 | 60.1 | 11,347 | 10.8 |
West | 9.9 | 62.0 | 9,498 | 9.1 |
East | 11.0 | 51.8 | 7,521 | 7.2 |
Pre-poll | 8.9 | 54.8 | 37,826 | 36.0 |
Other votes | 10.0 | 53.9 | 24,206 | 23.1 |
Election results in Bruce at the 2022 federal election
Toggle between two-party-preferred votes and primary votes for Labor, the Liberal Party and the Greens.
@NP – agree with the sentiment on Macarthur (my seat). Liberals re-chose Binod Paudel (2022 candidate), likely to reuse resources as they have no chance of winning while Mike Freelander is MP. He’s mega-popular and definitely would vote for him when I can.
Mick.
What was the significance of all of those election years?
Vis a vis your other wish list …
The changes require a referendum so hard to justify.
The 4 year term is most desirable but the problem has always been that it results in an 8 year term which is very long – though they do have them in NSW. The senate is a fixed term – except when a DD resets the calendar so that constrains the timing of elections.
@redistributed all states Has have fixed 4 year terms the plus side is it provides certainty and the downside is it removes the flexibility for a leader to go when it is most advantageous and they are polling well.
@james moving this discussion to the Macarthur thread
I’m not sure but I think the Senate is there by the constitution as well. Abolishing that would also require a referendum and Tbh I would vote against that because like in NZ and QLD that effectively gives the government absolute power and could do whatever they wanted without any restraint or anything to keep them in check.
@Darth Vader, regarding “effectively gives the government absolute power and could do whatever they wanted without any restraint or anything to keep them in check”, that is the case in QLD but NZ is only if the party vote reaches 50%
From 1949 to 1998 there should have been an election every 3 years. Note the number of early elections. Part.of thr argument for fixed terms
@Mary yes but whatever government be it majority or a coalition has that power.
@NP: “A 5% swing is unlikely anywhere except WA and maybe the NT”: The recent quarterly Newspoll aggregate published in December 2024 recorded a 50% Labor 2PP in Victoria, which is equivalent to a 5% 2PP swing against Labor. Coalition polling 50% 2PP in Victoria is a very bad result for Labor and in my view pretty unrealistic.
50% 2PP in Victoria will put normally fairly safe seats like Bruce, Holt and Hawke at risk. Since 1983, Coalition only recorded 2PP above 49.5% in Victoria in four (1990, 1996, 2004 and 2013) federal elections, and in all but one (1990) of these elections the Coalition won a landslide victory. Even without wining back the then Liberal heartland seats that are now teal seats, the Coalition would have still won a solid majority in the 1996, 2004 and 2013 federal elections. It’s hard to imagine that the Coalition can poll a 2PP of 50% in Victoria but does not win a majority of seats nationwide. (A nationwide 50% Coalition 2PP as recorded in this aggregate won’t get the Coalition anywhere close to a majority).
Assuming Labor still does well with university educated, high income and Chinese Australian voters in the inner and middle suburbs, the swings against Labor in the outer suburbs snd regions need to be extraordinarily large to achieve a Coalition 2PP of 50%. At a Coalition 2PP of 50% in Victoria, we could be looking at some interesting and even astonishing results: Swings close to or greater than 10% against Labor in seats like Casey, McEwen, Indi, La Trobe, Flinders and Monash. Labor in serious trouble or even lose reasonably safe seats like Hawke, Holt and Corangamite. Gorton, Calwell and Lalor become marginal Labor seats.
The same Newspoll aggregare also recorded an LNP 2PP of 53% in Queensland, which is equivalent of 1.05% swing TOWARDS Labor. A swing towards Labor in Queensland makes you question the reliability of the state 2PP figures in this aggregate even more.
Labor still did very well in WA. Labor 2PP in WA in this aggregate was 54%, which was equivalent to only a 1% 2PP swing against Labor, making Labor the flavourite to retain Tangney and leaving only Bullwinkel in play.
As for Bruce, Labor is the flavourite to win, mostly due to Julian Hill’s personal vote, but the race could be close. Right wing minor party voters switching to the Liberal Party, many of whom would have preferenced Labor last election, and some Labor losing votes mainly to the Greens due to the Israel-Palestine conflict issue (not all Greens voters will preference Labor) and some others to the Liberals could make the race close. The good news is that Liberal results in the eastern part of new Bruce that were in La Trobe may have been inflated by MP Jason Wood’s strong personal vote. Liberal support in these areas may drop when Jason Wood is no longer on the ballot, helping Labor to retain the seat.
@ joseph those swings in qld and wa are within the margin of error a 5% swing is not and indicates serious problems for labor
I am now thinking that Bruce could be in play. The margin is reduced and the choice of a candidate from a South Asian CALD background might be a real plus. Having Brad Battin as the local member in Berwick might see more resources put into the seat as well. A seat that I will start to pay more attention to. An extra factor is that the fall in the Liberal PV almost exactly matches the Liberal Democrat vote last time – the latter had the Donkey position so possibility of confusion. If combined, it shows the Lib primary was pretty strong.
i think they may fall just short or win by a very slim margin here. if they are winning here they are likely in contention to forming some sort of government
Bruce with a 5.3% margin currently.
Interestingly, PollBludger’s poll tracker suggests that polls are indicating a 5.3% swing to the Coalition in Victoria, which is at least 3% more than any of the other states (NSW 2.2%, QLD 0.4%, WA 1.9%, SA 2.3%). Acknowledging that state level polls can be pretty unreliable, this still puts Bruce within range.
Bruce, Hawke, Holt and McEwen all swung to the Coalition in 2022. McEwen seems like the most likely gain, but winning Bruce as well would be a good result for Dutton in Victoria. Hawke and Holt are possibly in play as outside chances if things get really dire for Labor in the outer suburbs.
Seats like Chisholm, Corangamite and Dunkley are more likely to resist the swing to some degree, but may still be vulnerable.
@angas im saying McEwen and Astona are certain gains in VIC. Bruce Hawke Holt Chisholm Dunkley and Corangamite to all swing towards the coalition but by enough? Chisholm seems like its gonna be real close due to the chinese population Dunkley should be too. Bruce to be under 3% and a likely target in 2028 Hawke and Hold around 4% also a targate in 2028
Bruce is one of 8 seats in vic “under stress” 7 are in greater melbourne. others include Gippsland (safe national), Corio (relatively safe labor due to being richard marles seat), the others being Scullin (safe), Jagajaga (which could become marginal), Wills (under green threat), Melbourne (safe enough being Adam Bandt seat), La Trobe (safe liberal). Bruce will be close and may actually flip because of this issue.
Bruce is also very socially conservative relative to how they vote – similar to Werriwa, the ALP party machine is quite strong behind Julian Hill though
@maxim yes and the are held on the same margin however Julian Hil is probably more competent and visible then Anne Stanley in my opinion ive effectively given WErriwa to the libs barring some controversy but Bruce will be lineball but id say about 50/50 atm im not prepared to give that away t either side yet
There is some local issues going on in Dandenong that may cost ALP the seat or at minimum a lot of primary votes. The Labor dominated Council has named the Thomas St precinct as Afghan Bazaar despite 90+ of traders being there are Hazaras, majority of whom do not consider themselves as Afghans. For them the term Afghan refers to the Afghan enthic group and Hazaras thinks the term is exclusionary and wants to change it.
The Labor Councillors oppose and Rhonda Garad the Greens Councillors supports the name change petition introduced by the Hazara community who makes a significant percentage of Bruce’s population. Rhonda Garad is also the Greens candidate for Bruce in the federal election.
In the previous Elections, i reckon 95% of Hazaras voted for Julian Hill but I’m expecting a lot of them to shift to the Greens. And for the first ever there seems to be a very visible campaign by the Hazara activists to shift their vote away from Labor.
And those votes will most definitely not to Zahid Safi the Lib candidate.
@patreon the dandenong parts of ruce are the only thing that holds this seat for Labor once that is removed to population growth in Casey Bruce will be lost to Labor though that may happen anyway before that
Interesting how this seat has migrated over time. Ten years ago, Bruce was a seat that would have been marginal were it not for the inclusion of Dandenong. Then it became a very safe Labor seat centred on Dandenong. Now it’s back to being a seat that would be marginal if it excluded Dandenong. But the non-Dandenong areas now are the north of the City of Casey, whereas 10 years ago it was Mulgrave and Glen Waverley.
yes its gradually shifted eastwards from mansh through dandenong and now into casey. i think if julian hill and labor are able to hold on this time around this will be labors last time holding this seat. given the growoth in bruce/casey its only a matter of time before its loses dandenong altogether