Bruce – Australia 2025

@NP – agree with the sentiment on Macarthur (my seat). Liberals re-chose Binod Paudel (2022 candidate), likely to reuse resources as they have no chance of winning while Mike Freelander is MP. He’s mega-popular and definitely would vote for him when I can.

Mick.
What was the significance of all of those election years?
Vis a vis your other wish list …
The changes require a referendum so hard to justify.
The 4 year term is most desirable but the problem has always been that it results in an 8 year term which is very long – though they do have them in NSW. The senate is a fixed term – except when a DD resets the calendar so that constrains the timing of elections.

@redistributed all states Has have fixed 4 year terms the plus side is it provides certainty and the downside is it removes the flexibility for a leader to go when it is most advantageous and they are polling well.

@james moving this discussion to the Macarthur thread

I’m not sure but I think the Senate is there by the constitution as well. Abolishing that would also require a referendum and Tbh I would vote against that because like in NZ and QLD that effectively gives the government absolute power and could do whatever they wanted without any restraint or anything to keep them in check.

@Darth Vader, regarding “effectively gives the government absolute power and could do whatever they wanted without any restraint or anything to keep them in check”, that is the case in QLD but NZ is only if the party vote reaches 50%

From 1949 to 1998 there should have been an election every 3 years. Note the number of early elections. Part.of thr argument for fixed terms

@Mary yes but whatever government be it majority or a coalition has that power.

@NP: “A 5% swing is unlikely anywhere except WA and maybe the NT”: The recent quarterly Newspoll aggregate published in December 2024 recorded a 50% Labor 2PP in Victoria, which is equivalent to a 5% 2PP swing against Labor. Coalition polling 50% 2PP in Victoria is a very bad result for Labor and in my view pretty unrealistic.

50% 2PP in Victoria will put normally fairly safe seats like Bruce, Holt and Hawke at risk. Since 1983, Coalition only recorded 2PP above 49.5% in Victoria in four (1990, 1996, 2004 and 2013) federal elections, and in all but one (1990) of these elections the Coalition won a landslide victory. Even without wining back the then Liberal heartland seats that are now teal seats, the Coalition would have still won a solid majority in the 1996, 2004 and 2013 federal elections. It’s hard to imagine that the Coalition can poll a 2PP of 50% in Victoria but does not win a majority of seats nationwide. (A nationwide 50% Coalition 2PP as recorded in this aggregate won’t get the Coalition anywhere close to a majority).

Assuming Labor still does well with university educated, high income and Chinese Australian voters in the inner and middle suburbs, the swings against Labor in the outer suburbs snd regions need to be extraordinarily large to achieve a Coalition 2PP of 50%. At a Coalition 2PP of 50% in Victoria, we could be looking at some interesting and even astonishing results: Swings close to or greater than 10% against Labor in seats like Casey, McEwen, Indi, La Trobe, Flinders and Monash. Labor in serious trouble or even lose reasonably safe seats like Hawke, Holt and Corangamite. Gorton, Calwell and Lalor become marginal Labor seats.

The same Newspoll aggregare also recorded an LNP 2PP of 53% in Queensland, which is equivalent of 1.05% swing TOWARDS Labor. A swing towards Labor in Queensland makes you question the reliability of the state 2PP figures in this aggregate even more.

Labor still did very well in WA. Labor 2PP in WA in this aggregate was 54%, which was equivalent to only a 1% 2PP swing against Labor, making Labor the flavourite to retain Tangney and leaving only Bullwinkel in play.

As for Bruce, Labor is the flavourite to win, mostly due to Julian Hill’s personal vote, but the race could be close. Right wing minor party voters switching to the Liberal Party, many of whom would have preferenced Labor last election, and some Labor losing votes mainly to the Greens due to the Israel-Palestine conflict issue (not all Greens voters will preference Labor) and some others to the Liberals could make the race close. The good news is that Liberal results in the eastern part of new Bruce that were in La Trobe may have been inflated by MP Jason Wood’s strong personal vote. Liberal support in these areas may drop when Jason Wood is no longer on the ballot, helping Labor to retain the seat.

@ joseph those swings in qld and wa are within the margin of error a 5% swing is not and indicates serious problems for labor

I am now thinking that Bruce could be in play. The margin is reduced and the choice of a candidate from a South Asian CALD background might be a real plus. Having Brad Battin as the local member in Berwick might see more resources put into the seat as well. A seat that I will start to pay more attention to. An extra factor is that the fall in the Liberal PV almost exactly matches the Liberal Democrat vote last time – the latter had the Donkey position so possibility of confusion. If combined, it shows the Lib primary was pretty strong.

i think they may fall just short or win by a very slim margin here. if they are winning here they are likely in contention to forming some sort of government

Bruce with a 5.3% margin currently.

Interestingly, PollBludger’s poll tracker suggests that polls are indicating a 5.3% swing to the Coalition in Victoria, which is at least 3% more than any of the other states (NSW 2.2%, QLD 0.4%, WA 1.9%, SA 2.3%). Acknowledging that state level polls can be pretty unreliable, this still puts Bruce within range.

Bruce, Hawke, Holt and McEwen all swung to the Coalition in 2022. McEwen seems like the most likely gain, but winning Bruce as well would be a good result for Dutton in Victoria. Hawke and Holt are possibly in play as outside chances if things get really dire for Labor in the outer suburbs.

Seats like Chisholm, Corangamite and Dunkley are more likely to resist the swing to some degree, but may still be vulnerable.

@angas im saying McEwen and Astona are certain gains in VIC. Bruce Hawke Holt Chisholm Dunkley and Corangamite to all swing towards the coalition but by enough? Chisholm seems like its gonna be real close due to the chinese population Dunkley should be too. Bruce to be under 3% and a likely target in 2028 Hawke and Hold around 4% also a targate in 2028

Bruce is one of 8 seats in vic “under stress” 7 are in greater melbourne. others include Gippsland (safe national), Corio (relatively safe labor due to being richard marles seat), the others being Scullin (safe), Jagajaga (which could become marginal), Wills (under green threat), Melbourne (safe enough being Adam Bandt seat), La Trobe (safe liberal). Bruce will be close and may actually flip because of this issue.

Bruce is also very socially conservative relative to how they vote – similar to Werriwa, the ALP party machine is quite strong behind Julian Hill though

@maxim yes and the are held on the same margin however Julian Hil is probably more competent and visible then Anne Stanley in my opinion ive effectively given WErriwa to the libs barring some controversy but Bruce will be lineball but id say about 50/50 atm im not prepared to give that away t either side yet

There is some local issues going on in Dandenong that may cost ALP the seat or at minimum a lot of primary votes. The Labor dominated Council has named the Thomas St precinct as Afghan Bazaar despite 90+ of traders being there are Hazaras, majority of whom do not consider themselves as Afghans. For them the term Afghan refers to the Afghan enthic group and Hazaras thinks the term is exclusionary and wants to change it.

The Labor Councillors oppose and Rhonda Garad the Greens Councillors supports the name change petition introduced by the Hazara community who makes a significant percentage of Bruce’s population. Rhonda Garad is also the Greens candidate for Bruce in the federal election.

In the previous Elections, i reckon 95% of Hazaras voted for Julian Hill but I’m expecting a lot of them to shift to the Greens. And for the first ever there seems to be a very visible campaign by the Hazara activists to shift their vote away from Labor.

And those votes will most definitely not to Zahid Safi the Lib candidate.

@patreon the dandenong parts of ruce are the only thing that holds this seat for Labor once that is removed to population growth in Casey Bruce will be lost to Labor though that may happen anyway before that

Interesting how this seat has migrated over time. Ten years ago, Bruce was a seat that would have been marginal were it not for the inclusion of Dandenong. Then it became a very safe Labor seat centred on Dandenong. Now it’s back to being a seat that would be marginal if it excluded Dandenong. But the non-Dandenong areas now are the north of the City of Casey, whereas 10 years ago it was Mulgrave and Glen Waverley.

yes its gradually shifted eastwards from mansh through dandenong and now into casey. i think if julian hill and labor are able to hold on this time around this will be labors last time holding this seat. given the growoth in bruce/casey its only a matter of time before its loses dandenong altogether

Good job whichever lifeless loners who hung up anti-LGBT banners in Bruce mocking Julian Hill. The Guardian is reporting that Victorian police are investigating the two incidents.

Morons.

There is a petition with almost 5,000 signatures saying Zahid Safi is unfit for Parliament. The petition is organized by the Hazara Community who makes the vast majority ( around 80%) of Afghans in Melbourne and a significant percentage of this electorate. A large amount of them have becoming citizens in the last few years.

https://www.change.org/p/zahid-safi-is-unfit-to-represent-the-people-of-bruce-in-the-australian-federal-parliament?utm_medium=custom_url&utm_source=share_petition&recruited_by_id=0e5ec1b0-18df-11f0-a454-751f730dbf11

The Lib candidate has been in the news recently. in 2021 he co-authored a submission to the Senate saying Hazara people were not persecuted in Afghan for their ethnicity. That has upset the Hazara community, if the Libs thought pre-selecting might Safi might get them votes from the Afghan community, they were wildly mistaken.

Skulduggery afoot. Tread carefully!

labor retain 2% margin

Agree with the other comments that Bruce is surely slipping away from Labor in the coming years. I think Hill can hang on for another term but those homophobic banners are a very interesting political play. I’m not sure they were just “lifeless loners” though; I suspect it was a very intentional campaign with at least some ties to a certain major party. Disgraceful, of course, but I imagine the intent is to make sure that conservative ethnic communities are aware their MP is gay? Depressing that this would still make a difference for people in 2025 Australia but here we are.
The Liberal party has already realised that many Indian migrants, with their focus on individual gain and small business, are a natural fit with the party; I wonder if the next Liberal leader after Dutton will realise that social conservatism can appeal to Muslims if you don’t spend all your time demonising them.
I think the Jacinta Allan factor will come into play here, with Labor down to 2% or even lower – the party’s only hope might be for a Coalition state government to come in 2026 and immediately become wildly unpopular. But I’m not sure even that will save Bruce!

If the Muslim community had an issue with Julian Hill being gay then they would’ve voted him out in 2019 or 2022, especially given that Bruce voted no in the SSM plebiscite and Hill voted yes. The fact that he was voted back each time (and increased his margin in 2019 against the odds) probably says a lot about his personal popularity in the seat. The fact that the Liberal party has made no in-roads in places like Dandenong won’t help them and they can’t purely rely on Berwick or the Narre Warrens to win the seat.

The issue on the Afghan community I think will help Julian Hill. The Liberal candidate dug himself into a hole with that enquiry and now he’s trying to backtrack on it which sounds like desperation. Julian Hill once even got himself into trouble in parliament for screaming at Karen Andrews (then Home Affairs minister) about not processing visas for Afghan people who had family in Australia and were stuck in Kabul from the Taliban’s return. He was ‘named’ and suspended from the house for doing that but had made it clear that he was standing on the side of the Afghan/Muslim communities on the issue. He’s also one of the few Labor MPs that spoke out publicly against Netanyahu and Israel over Gaza so his reputation amongst the Muslim community would be quite good.

I’d say Labor hold with a 3-4% margin with minimal swing on 2PP but a bigger primary swing that will spray around the Greens and Minors.

I agree with Tommo LGBT issues are astroturfed Julian hill has been welcome in mosques despite being gay. also if there Libs talk about religious based issues then they well loose votes in Dunkley where there’s are a lot of white working class voters who are mostly irreligious. just like if you try and condemn people living together before marriage to appeal to Muslims you will loose white voters who don’t want to be told what to do

The liberals appealing in Dandenong is the same as labor appealing in places like benalla.

I used to live in this electorate and was relatively politically active and I never even once heard people from the Muslim community talk about Julian Hill’s sexuality.

The drama around the naming of that shopping precinct would have cuased a lot of trouble for Labor, however that issue was mostly neutralised last Monday when Dandenong Council voted to remove the name, after i assume was an intervention from Julian Hill because two weeks prior all 8 Labor Councillors voted against an identical motion.

The Liberals candidate selection doesn’t help them at all and that submission made by the Liberal candidate to the Senate saying Hazaras in Afghanistan are not persecuted for their ethnicity has angered a lot of people.

The vast majority of Afghans living in Bruce, Holt and Issacs are Hazaras. Forget the census, a lot of those whose ancestry says Afghan are actually ethnically Hazara. There are also a large Hazara community from Pakistan and Iran living in the area as well.

They will swing behind labor now that the naming issue has been partially resolved in their favour and they really do not want Safi to win.

What was it named and what was it changed to. What was the issue

A quick google would have saved you the trouble of a post, Darth.

The shopping precinct in Dandenong, formerly known as Dandenong Plaza, has been rebranded as Dandenong Square. This change marks a new era for the shopping destination, with plans for a renewed design and atmosphere. Additionally, the precinct’s name was previously “Afghan Bazaar,” but there are ongoing discussions about potentially changing it to “Little Bamiyan”.
Here’s a more detailed breakdown:
Dandenong Square:
Dandenong Plaza was renamed to Dandenong Square in 2024, signifying a new era for the shopping center. This includes a shift in design and ambiance to create a more vibrant and inviting atmosphere.
Afghan Bazaar/Little Bamiyan:
A Hazara group has been advocating for the renaming of the shopping precinct, known colloquially as “Afghan Bazaar,” to “Little Bamiyan”. This change is seen as a way to better represent the community and its history. However, the name change has been met with resistance from some within the Afghan community who believe it could lead to further division.
Community Engagement:
The Greater Dandenong Council is actively engaging with the community to understand the concerns and perspectives surrounding the name change, with a focus on fostering unity and inclusivity.
Historical Context:
The precinct’s name has a long history, with “Afghan Bazaar” becoming the common term over the years, and there’s a strong sentiment within the community to preserve it as a symbol of shared identity

I don’t think anywhere in Australia is majority racist or majority homophobic/transphobic so people suggesting a candidate lost because of their background or personal identity is stupid, so those homophobic posters will have zero effect.

As for religion while this seat does have a large Muslim community it’s only 13.8%. 3.7% of the population of Bruce speaks Hazara (additionally 3.2% speak Dari), 4.9% were born in Afghanistan, 7.7% had Afghan fathers and 7.5% had Afghan mothers. Neither “Afghan” or “Hazara” are in the top five ancestries. In all of these statistics “India” or “Indian” is ahead of “Afghanistan” or “Afghani”, though no Indian language is in the top five languages (Sinhala is spoken in Sri Lanka) and neither Hinduism nor Sikhism aren’t in the top five religions.

@NP regarding the “Afghan” or “Hazara” ancestries, I assume one of them would had been on the top 5 if Hazara group didn’t split the identification due to low information similar to how English and Australian is also a split because the low information about identity.

@NP forgot to add that regarding Indians, most just didn’t split their ancestral identity on census even though they have different ethnic groups and languages hence you see why Indian Ancestry in in the top 5 but not Indian Language although recently some Punjabi Sikhs split away from the Indian Ancestry on the census as evident in the Tarneit – North SA2.

how do we reckon the Greens vote goes here? Local Councillor, seem to be doing work with the Hazara community. Endorsement from Muslim Votes Matters.

I imagine they’ll do pretty well, similar trend to QLD state, very ethnic outer suburbs they’ll get a big swing, but they won’t be competitive this cycle. If they decide to lean more into it this sort of seat could be next time though.

Will be interesting to see if a Greens swing holds up into the state seat of Dandenong where they would have a better chance based on demographics & urban size.

Yeah i think Greens will do well here but cannot win the seat obviously. The Hazara community will still be Pro-Palestine eventhough they are Shia Muslims. The Palestine issue crosses the Sunni-Shia divide.

@D, i think the Greens could have done very well with the Hazara Community if the election was held a month ago but the issue they were drifting away from Labor on has been to some extend naturalised.

The census data does not give the full picture of the demographics in this area. There has been a significant increase in the number of from Afghanistan here, the vast majority of them are Hazara and a big majority of them have become citizens in the last few years.

The issue they were drifting away from Labor on was the Afghan Bazaar name. There is a section of Dandenong ( Thomas St ) where 90% of Traders are from Afghanistan. Almost all of them are Hazara and they do consider themselves as “Afghans”. For most Hazaras the term ” Afghan” refers to a specific ethnic group from Afghanistan.

So, the Hazaras were not happy with Council naming the place Afghan Bazaar and there was petition to change is to Little Bamiyan. Bamiyan is a Province in Afghanistan is almost entirely populated by the Hazaras. Rhonda Garad was the Councilor who supported the name change which attracted her a lot of support from the Hazara Community.

A couple of weeks ago, she introduced a motion to temporary cease using the term “Afghan Bazaar” for marketing purposes until a full consultation with the Traders that Council had promised was concluded. All 8 Labor Councilors opposed it and that upset the Hazara Community which probably scared Julian Hill because the Hazaras almost entirely votes Labor and is a big volunteer base for election day.

This naming drama also coincided with a lot big community gatherings. Ramadan Night Market, Eid and the Nuwrooz ( Persian New Year ) which is a huge event in Dandenong each year. For the first Greens were invited as guests to speak in all of those events. The Greens also selected a Hazara candidate from Dandenong on their Senate ticket and from feedback in those events Julian Hill in my opinion realized that he was losing the Hazara Community over the naming drama. And all of a sudden the Dandenong Labor Council voted to remove the name Afghan Bazaar and start a consultation on a potential new Marketing name for Thomas St. The motion was also identical to the one all 8 Labor councilors voted against 3 weeks prior. I think this u-turn must have come about after Julian Hill’s intervention.

So, i think now that naming drama has been dealt with, most Hazaras will still vote Labor, but the younger ones have probably shifted the Greens permanently. The Liberals candidate selection means no chance any of the Hazaras will vote for them.

From my experience, Hazaras from Afghanistan and Iran are not religious at all, or at least religion does not play a big role in their lives. Hazaras from Pakistan are far more religious and the Palestine issue will impact their vote. The deciding factor for Hazaras from Afghanistan and Iran will probably be family reunion visas.

This electorate is obviously much bigger than the Hazaras. I’m just writing about them because i followed the name change drama very closely.

The Liberals were bullish about this seat and choosing an Afghan candiate but he seems to be in the news for the wrong reasons. I have been in the seat recently and it Liberals have been putting a lot of corflutes around Dandenong North.

the libs were not gonna win this this time around in my opinion but i think 2028 will be their chance

A few weeks ago, I thought the Libs had a chance here. It all seems to have a tad pear shaped for them. Labor hold.

labor is gonna have a hell of a time defeding in 2028 if they retain govt. they are gonna have so many marginal seats the libs will just have to throw the kitchen sink at labor to sweep to power

The Liberal candidate has given fake address for his small businesses and the people who live at the address have no clue. One was in Narre Warren South and the other Clyde.

A lot of factors seem to be coalescing around the Greens having an unusually good showing here. Julian Hill will hang on as a result

Liberals have shot themselves in the foot here there could even possibly be a small swing against the Liberals.

If the Chaser still had there election special i wonder if Zahid Safi will get the Mal Award for embarassing stuff ups.

Zahid Safi seems to be the Jaymes Diaz of Melbourne

In this seat Muslim vote Matters has recommended people vote for the Greens then Labor putting Family First and ONP last. Eventhough Zahid Safi is Muslim they have encoraged the voters to preference Julian Hill over him.