Bruce – Australia 2025

Labor hold, Julian Hill is really active in this electorate and has built quite a large following on social media as well.

Labor hold.

This seat is very varied and hard to get a single mood. The West of the seat is very poor, Muslim, a lot of refugees, It is Fatima Payman country with the highest concentration of Afghans. I expect the Victorian Socialists to do well there. The East of the seat around Berwick is high income, more conservative and Anglo. The two ends of the electorate have little in common.

Agree Nimalan, I tried to fix this in my original redistribution (which abolished Hotham) by focusing it more on Greater Dandenong and more established suburbs beyond it, which would have had a much more cohesive community of interest.

Will be a fairly comfortable hold for Labor, but I wouldn’t be shocked to see an uptick in support for the Greens, Victorian Socialists or independents. Lot of major party votes aren’t rusted on here as seen in 2022, where it went in the other direction with right-wing minor parties polling a cumulative 18.5% of the primary vote.

@Nimalan I wouldn’t say “Fatima Payman country” is accurate, most Afghans in the seat (in Australia in general) are Hazara whilst Payman is Tajik.

@Ough
Fair point. The Palestine issue cuts across the sunni-shia divide hence Iran and Hezbollah got involved. Whilst other conflicts that involve muslims and non-muslims such as Greece and Turkey over Cyprus dont really get attention from other Muslims. Unlike the Iranian community in Menzies, Hills District etc who are secular the Hazara community are still practicing Muslims albeit Shia instead of Sunni.

Swing against Labor in 2022 and a seat that fits the mould of where the Liberals will be targeting under Dutton, I think Hill is vulnerable especially if some of the RW minor party vote comes home and Hill’s primary falls under 40%. I remember Dutton saying a few months back that some internal polling had the LNP ‘competitive in some surprising areas’ (or words to that effect) and I immediately thought of this electorate. Redbridge/Accent MRP polling has twice has this seat within 2% as well. Probably the sort of seat Dutton has to win to keep his narrow path to government open, without it he needs to be winning back the classic marginals like Dunkley and Corangamite that are moving away from the Liberals as well as teal seats

@Maxim likely Labor retain atm unless they suffer a complete collapse in Vic. im saying margin around 2-2.5% retain. but they got problems in 2028. once it loses the rest of Dandenong Labor will struggle to win here. in regards to Dunkley the only thing thats saved it this time around was the favourable redistribution. im guessing around the same 2-2.5% margin there. corangamite likely 3-4% labor retain.

Bruce only voted slightly to the left of the state 2PP on current boundaries, current polling in Victoria shows that lead has all but evaporated and the trend appears to be against Labor here. I find the confidence in a Labor retain a little curious, every chance it happens but other posters seem to be indicating that Hill has better capacity to withstand a statewide swing. I agree Labor will hold both Dunkley and Corangamite, hence why Dutton needs to target Bruce and Hawke as new marginals.

@max the shift in bruce is gonna eventually lead to labor losing this and possible holt as well. dunkley will likely shift south again after next redistribution based on current numbers there and in flinders. when dreyfus retires in isaacs they could also have a shot there. labors vote will be concentrated in hotham which will lkely be alot safer then it is now. chisholm will iikely drift further to the coalition as it moves out of whitehorse however the liberals will likely lose menzies as it moves into whitehorse. Mcewen will likely shed the macedon ranges making it easier for the liberals. if a new seat is created around sunbury/macedon then hawe will be bceome alot easier for the liberals as well.

The vast majority of Afghans living in the Greater Dandenong are Hazaras. The Liberal candidate in Bruce is an Afghan but will not get the Afghan vote.

He was one of the authors of a submission to a Parliamentary committee back in 2021 that most Hazaras saw as an anti Hazara submission. And there was a massive backlash against some community leaders who had invited him to an event in the recent months, since then I believe some other invitations were withdrawn.

Julian Hill has been relatively popular among the Afghans living in Dandenong, but that has been in the decline for the past few years. Increasing more and more voting Greens and that will only continue if Greens do the smart thing and run Rhonda Garad who is very well known in Dandenong and specially among the Hazara Community across Melbourne’s South East.

I think the Libs will get close this time if they can win it outright.

Pat-57
Rhonda Garad is the Greens Party candidate, having been announced weeks ago:
https://greens.org.au/vic/news/media-release/local-councillor-rhonda-garad-announced-greens-mulgrave-candidate-real

if not in 2025 id say a close labor retain but if labor are in govt in 2028 this will probably be lost

I can’t imagine a seat containing the Dandenong CBD and Doveton ever electing a Liberal member. Have these areas ever been represented by the Liberal Party?

@Phil – the link you sent is to the announcement of Rhonda Garad as the candidate for the seat of Mulgrave, which is a state seat. She is not (for now) the candidate for Bruce in 2025.

@ Adam
The last time, the Libs represented this area (Dandenong CBD/Doveton) at either level of government was in the 1970s. The seat of Holt used to be based on Dandenong. Libs have not won since. However, Dandenong is much stronger demographically for Labor than the 1970s for a number of reasons
1. A lot of manufacturing has relocated nearby as it left inner Melbourne.
2. The area is no longer mortgage belt
3. The middle class has largely left as new suburbs such as Rowville were created nearby
4. Wars in Indochina, Sri Lanka, Sudan, Afghanistan etc brought refugees.
5. This is the least Anglo area in Victoria( Greater Dandenong only) and one the least in the nation only 29.3% of people speak English at home

As mentioned above, it hard to get a good picture of this electorate Dutton will play well in an Anglo Aspirational outer suburban area like Berwick while i think Greens will do well among Muslims here.

James
Thank you. Here’s her Bruce announcement, but undated. Has been up for weeks to my observation:
https://greens.org.au/vic/person/rhonda-garad-0

@adam its only a small part of dandenog if you look at the redistribution it only shed a small portion of dandenong and then shed 3% of its margin. dandenong is the only this keeping this seat within labors grasp. the parts of casey are liberal leaning especially the areas it took from la trobe so its entirely possible they could win. although i think they will fall short in 2025 they probably wont hold it in 2028. if it loses any more of dandenong they can kiss it goodbye.

@nimalan yes but refugess dont vote until they are citizens

@ John
Yes what i mean is that a lot of these people came as refugees to Dandenong/Doveton and even Hallam. I agree Berwick is Liberal leaning as are semi-rural parts of the seat. However, i will not say most of Casey is Liberal leaning, Doveton and Hallam are solid Labor areas despite being in Casey LGA. Narre Warren/Endevour Hills are marginal Labor leaning but CALD areas, they are more middle class

*they may be Citizens now but refugees once.

@nimalan still give how shaprly the margin dropped when they removed only a tiny fraction of the small amount of dandenong once dandenong goes bruce will be lost unless labor have a good year. hotham will likely become solid labor

@ John
According to Ben, the margin dropped by 1.3% when a small amount of Dandenong was dropped. Both Narre Warren seats at a state level have an 8% Margin and they dont include any of Dandenong/Doveton. If you average out with state seat of Berwick (LIB-4%) then it will be about 4% ALP on state level results. IMHO the swing in Holt will be bigger as it more mortgage belt than Bruce. On current boundaries i think Holt will have a lower margin in 2025 than Bruce. Holt also does not have big difference is voting patterns and only Hampton Park is solid Labor.

@john my bad i read it wrong i mistook the 1.3% for 3.1%, woops. still if all of dandenon were removed it would plumet

All good John
Do you feel the swing will be larger in Holt as it more mortgage belt than Bruce?

@nimalan hard to say. from what im hereing they are targeting this more then Holt. i think Bruce will finish on around a 2% margin for labor and holt around 3% either way if labor end up in minority govt they will be sweating in 2028

The Redbridge/Accent MRP’s point to a tightening margin in Holt, down to only 2% in the last one (in from 8% near the beginning of the year). Would be getting pretty ugly for Labor if Bruce, Holt and possibly Hawke were all in play, that’s LNP majority territory

Happy New Year everyone. This is the first comment of 2025.

@Max if Labor lost Bruce, Hawke and Holt it would mean they’ve lost their way with the working-class and it would absolutely mean that the Coalition would get a comfortable majority.

@nether I wouldn’t say comfortable but yea they’d probably be in majority. I’d says they might fall short though. Right now Dutton is probably better placed to form minority then Albo is.

@Darth Vader, Dutton is struggling in Victoria and SA. Bruce is on a 5.3% margin for Labor according to the redistribution (which is better than the previous 6.6% margin), so a –5.3% swing is needed for the Liberals to get 50.0%. That’s a big ask for a relatively unpopular right-wing leader in a state that is usually left-leaning and has had a Labor government for 11 years and will for at least 12 come 2026, so if he’s winning Bruce then he would be on track for 80+ seats nationwide which I don’t see happening.

Also, the crossbench is overwhelmingly backing Albo over Dutton and there is realistically no chance of that changing given that it’s independents and Rebekha Sharkie vs Bob Katter on Dutton’s side (Dai Le could go either way), assuming that the Coalition defectors all lose their seats to the Coalition. So realistically for the Coalition to get a minority government they would need to be only one or two seats short of a majority since the teals won’t back him.

@nether from what I’ve heard there could be a swing of up to 5% in Victoria. That’s seats like McEwen Aston Chisholm. Then seats like Dunkley Bruce Holt and Hawke are realistically in play. Possibly even Goldstein and Kooyong. SA is likely to be status quo. In WA Curtin Tangey and Bullwinkel are likely coalition gains. QLD we can assume LNP will hold all their seats but Ryan and Brisbane may be in play. We can reasonably put Lyons and Lingiari in the coalition column and Solomon could be an upset. That leaves the big one NSW. We can reasonably assume Paterson Gilmore as coalition gains. Polling has shown that seats like Robertson, Macquarie could well be in play. As well as seats in the Hunter. I wouldn’t expect any teal seats here to fall though. Then when you start getting into the GRN v Labor seats it starts to weaken Albos position. Scamps, Ryan, Daniel and Sfegall are likely to side with Labor. However Chaneys base would likely push her to the Libs as she did backflip on the live sheep export ban. Spender and Sharkie have stated they will support whoever has most seats. We can assume Katter will back the Libs and Haines might too given her electorates position in 2pp. So realistically the Libs can probably get there with 71.

If the Liberals can eliminate Ryan, Daniels and topple the greens in QLD Dutton will win.

@Darth Vader a couple of points there:

1. A 5% swing is unlikely anywhere except WA and maybe the NT. Both leaders are unpopular.
2. Aston and McEwen are in play, but I don’t think Chisholm will fall. Remember Chisholm includes Asian voters and upper/upper-middle-class moderate voters, two types of voters where Peter Dutton is struggling. Chisholm actually voted Yes to the Voice albeit by the smallest margin in the country.
3. Goldstein is unlikely, Kooyong might though simply because Monique Ryan is so bad but even then I would say she’s still the favourite. If there was a different leader though then Amelia Hamer would definitely be the favourite and will make a great MP one day.
4. I agree with you on SA, the only seat at real risk there is Sturt. If the Liberals lose that then they’ve been wiped out of Adelaide.
5. Curtin is a possibility, Bullwinkel and Tangney are more likely than not, and I would add that Pearce and Swan might be in play too depending on how hard COL hits in Perth. Moore should be comfortably held by the Liberals.
6. Brisbane will likely go to Labor, while Griffith and Ryan will stick with the Greens because of Labor preferences. The state LNP do better in those three seats than their federal counterparts simply due to the direction of the party from the top.
7. Lingiari and Lyons should go to the Liberals and the CLP respectively, I agree. But despite the CLP’s recent great performance across the Territory including in and out of Darwin, Solomon won’t fall this time around. Again similar to the stage LNP in Queensland the CLP is more moderate on the territory level and thus the CLP greatly outperformed their federal counterparts in the Territory.
8. Gilmore is a probability, while Paterson is a possibility and I would say the Liberals are the favourites there.
9. Macquarie won’t fall because Susan Templeman is too popular and Robertson will only fall if the Coalition actually wins government. On the federal and state level results show that Robertson and the overlapping total result (the state seats of Gosford and Terrigal are within Robertson) goes with whoever forms government (Gosford is a Labor seat, Terrigal is a Liberal seat, but in 2023 combined they would’ve voted Labor but in 2019 combined they would’ve voted Liberal).
10. Hunter won’t fall, the redistribution has made it even safer for Labor.
11. Wills will likely fall but Cooper and Macnamara will likely stick with Labor. Richmond will also stick with Labor but the Nationals will finish second there, not the Greens. The Nationals might even finish first but end up losing to Labor on Greens preferences.
12. Chaney and Spender are the teals who are most likely to support the Coalition but given that Peter Dutton is the leader I don’t think they would. Same story for Rebekha Sharkie. Bob Katter is the only guarantee while Dai Le and Helen Haines are possibilities. But if Haines backs Labor she would probably lose her seat in 2028.

What I’m expecting is a repeat of 2010 (two unpopular leaders, a progressive Labor leader in Anthony Albanese who hasn’t been too progressive because his party have controlled him and a very conservative Coalition leader in Peter Dutton who has been conservative because his faction has too much power in the party; this is very similar to Julia Gillard and Labor and Tony Abbott and the Coalition in 2010).

The result will be a hung parliament due to Labor’s economic failures and the Coalition’s social conservatism. In the end the Greens and independents will back Labor, with Helen Haines saying she won’t side with the Coalition because it would result in Peter Dutton becoming Prime Minister (similar to how Rob Oakeshott and Tony Windsor wanted Malcolm Turnbull to be Coalition leader and not Tony Abbott), which will cause her to lose her seat of Infi in 2028. Kate Chaney in Curtin would probably be similar. Not sure about the others though.

@nether
1. not really Allen is hated and Labor’s vote is down the toilet.
2. Your talking old boundaries of Chisholm though.
3. Nothing to add.
4. Being in opposition helps them though.
5. Pearce and Swan probably a bit hard this time around. But they should come back next time.
6. I hear the Libs are hopeful in both former LNP seats.
7….
8….
9. The last poll shows it as competitive in Macquarie and winning Robertson. But I agree Macquarie is less likely but they will be able to marginalize it enough to win in 2028.
10. Yo uu mean by 0.3%
11. I think Macnamara is more likely due to the Gaza issue I think Khalil might just hold on in Wills. Cooper safe.
12. Spender and Sharkie have already publicly stated they would back whoever has the most seats. Chaney might not even be around but it would be political suicide not to back Dutton.

Remember that in 2010 Abbott effectively won the election but was robbed of victory at the finish line by two mps whose constituents wanted the Libs. It w kill be the same this time. Libs will likely have more then enough seats 2pp but mps occupying liberal seats may install a labor government.

That should ha e read 0.8% on Hunter.

Also seats like Parramatta, Werriwa and Richmond are also in contention. With Richmond being a 3 way contest like Brisbane.

@Darth Vader, while Jacinta Allen is unpopular this is a federal election not a state election.

As for Brisbane and Ryan, of course they’re hopeful. They would be hopeful in any seat they’ve won before. But that doesn’t mean it’ll happen. Seat-by-seat polls aren’t particularly accurate either.

As for promising to support whoever wins the most seats, you have to remember they are indeed politicians. And we all know politicians aren’t always the most trustworthy.

While the Coalition won the most votes in 2010 (as they did in 2022), they didn’t win the nationwide TPP vote. In fact, they only won the TPP vote in NSW, Queensland and WA (same as 2016 and 2019).

It is not true for people to say that Allegra Spender is “promising to support whoever wins the most seats”.

Spender has nominated who wins the most seats as one consideration. Another is the election results more broadly. And her specific interest is in which major party will be willing to pursue genuine tax reform.

That will all depend on negotiations if the election result is a minority.

Seems to be lots of optimism here by non Labor fans.
However I think in Vic all that is in plat are Aston Deakin and Menzies
Nsw only Gilmore aBradfield
Tas only Lyons
Sa ” Sturt
Nt and act nil
Wa Bullwinkel and Tangney Moore
Now in play means a change is possible . change of mp NOT certain
Other seats may go close.but I expect them not to change mps
Most teals and independents will be re elected

Qld Leichhardt Brisbane Ryan

@mick seems your too optimistic for labor labor will lose at least 10 seats.
chisholm mcewen are definately in play in vic. libs seem to like their chances in at least 4 seats other then aston.
in nsw Bennelong will fall to the libs. Paterson will be won by he libs gilmore will be won by the libs. seats in play include werriwa, robertson, parramatta and the libs seem to be hopeful in macquarie, macarthur and whitlam. Richmond could go 3 ways in my opinion.
agree on tas
sa yes but the libs seem to be hopeful of winning back boothby but i tdont think that will happen
nt are you kidding they will lose lingiari and may even lose solomon. in act the independt could win Bean.
wa bullwinel and tangey yes. moore wont fall if they couldnt win it in 2022 they wont win it now. also curtin is in play.
in qld leichhardt will hold. but agree on brisbane and ryan

on the teals and independents i think thats about right. Curtin, Kooyong and Goldstein could be vunerable but the rest will hold out.

Doesn’t change what I said much but I forgot Bennelong nsw in play

@mick i will guarantee Bennelong. Paterson, Bullwinkel, Paterson, Lyons, Lingiari, Tangey, Gilmore. The liberals will gain these seats at minimum unless Dutton runs over a nun on Australia Day

@NP federal governments are often punished for the problems of their state colleagues. one reason Albo wanted to wait until after the NT and QLD elections but tbh given hindsight he should of gone early given his new porblems. Albo will be punished for Allens problems as the liberals will do everything to tie her to him. Vice Versa and State governments are similary punished for their federal collegaues problems which is why WA Labor doesnt want the federal government going to an election so close to theirs.

Why do liberals have hopes in Macarthur? It is now Campbelltown with a tiny bit of
Camden. Needs a LOT more of Camden like territory to shift sides

@Mick Quinlivan they don’t. As you said it’s a Campbelltown-based seat so therefore it isn’t a seat the Liberals are really targeting.

Furthermore I think Lingiari will flip but not Solomon.

@John Albo would’ve never gone before the NT election because it was in August 2024. The ACT and later Queensland elections were in October 2024 but he probably wouldn’t have gone in September either.

The election was never going to be in 2024. It was always gonna be in 2025, the question was when in 2025.

Timing of elections is wasted effort in speculation as to All levels of government should have fixed 4 year terms. The lnp should support this
NO
Election 1949.1951 1954 1955 1958 1961 1963 1966 1969 1972 1974 1975 1977 1980 1983 1984 1987 1990 1996 1998
Like happened in the past.. which was anti democratic

I can certainly see Mick that in a COL crisis with mortgage repayments and rents through the roof, with the Government doubling down on what many will see as the culprit (high energy prices through renewables and exporting most of the gas we produce) that the LNP might see areas such as Campbelltown and Dandenong as fertile ground.
Not saying they would win seats based on these areas mind you, but I do think the class based attachments to parties are dwindling, and personally I don’t think either party is prepared for it.

@mick im only going by what ive heard tbh i dont think they can win it either.

@Np he would of been better off going in august or anypoint in 2024 up until november. he would have remained pm albeit in minority but now im saying that we will more then likely see Dutton in the lodge come May. there were rumblings in labor that he wanted to go in late 2024 but put that off when the shit hit the fan polling wise. i also heard from alot of people in the know that a 2024 election was the plan but that evaporated when his polling fell through the floor.

Changes needed
Fixed 4 year terms
Abolish the senate
A system similar to nz whereby 2pp and percentage vote shares coincide

@mick because that requires a referendum federally but only requires a change to the electoral act at a state level