GRN 3.7% vs LNP
Incumbent MP
Stephen Bates, since 2022.
Geography
Central Brisbane. Brisbane covers the Brisbane CBD and inner suburbs north of the Brisbane River including Fortitude Valley, Paddington, Ashgrove, Kelvin Grove, Newmarket, Clayfield and Hendra.
History
Brisbane is an original federation electorate. It had been held by the ALP for most of its history interrupted by short periods of conservative MPs, up until the last decade.
The seat was first won by Thomas Macdonald-Paterson, who joined the Protectionists when Parliament first sat. Macdonald-Paterson was not endorsed by the local Protectionists for the 1903 election, and the split in the protectionist vote gave the seat to the ALP’s Millice Culpin.
Culpin was himself defeated after one term by Justin Foxton of the Anti-Socialist Party (formerly the Free Traders). Foxton served as a minister from 1909 until his defeat at the 1910 election by the ALP’s William Finlayson.
Finlayson held the seat until 1919, when he was defeated by Donald Charles Cameron of the Nationalist Party. Cameron held the seat until 1931, when he lost the seat against the tide of conservative gains against the Scullin Government. Cameron returned to serve one term in the neighbouring seat of Lilley from 1934 to 1937.
The ALP held the seat continuously for the next fourty-four years, with only two MPs holding the seat from 1931 until 1975. George Lawson won the seat in 1931 and held it until 1961. He served as Minister for Transport from 1941 until the 1943 election. The seat was then held by Manfred Cross until his defeat by Liberal Peter Johnson in 1975. Johnson defeated Cross again in 1977 before Cross won the seat back in 1980.
Cross held the seat until his retirement in 1990, when the ALP chose Arch Bevis, who held the seat for the next twenty years. While Brisbane has never been held by a large margin, it came closest to being lost to the Liberals in 1996, when Bevis’ margin was cut to 0.36%.
In 2010, the Liberal National Party ran former MP Teresa Gambaro. Gambaro had served as member for the marginal seat of Petrie from 1996 until she was defeated in 2007.
Gambaro won the seat in 2010 with a 5.7% swing, and was re-elected with a further 3.2% swing in 2013.
Gambaro retired in 2016, and the LNP’s Trevor Evans won. Evans was re-elected in 2019.
Evans lost in 2022 to Greens candidate Stephen Bates, who won the seat despite coming in third place on primary votes.
- Stephen Bates (Greens)
- Trevor Evans (Liberal National)
- Madonna Jarrett (Labor)
- Kirsten Sands (Family First)
- Brian Thiele (Trumpet of Patriots)
- Joseph Wheeler (People First)
Assessment
Brisbane was one of the most interesting and complex seats in 2022, with Bates winning from third place.
It seems likely that Bates will benefit from a personal vote boost, which will likely make it easier for him to stay clear of Labor at the next election.
Bates’ margin against the LNP is also very slim, and a relatively small swing would see the LNP regain the seat.
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
| Trevor Evans | Liberal National | 41,032 | 37.7 | -10.1 |
| Madonna Jarrett | Labor | 29,652 | 27.3 | +2.8 |
| Stephen Bates | Greens | 29,641 | 27.2 | +4.9 |
| Trevor Hold | One Nation | 2,429 | 2.2 | -0.3 |
| Tiana Kennedy | Animal Justice | 2,135 | 2.0 | +2.0 |
| Justin Marc Knudson | United Australia | 2,102 | 1.9 | +0.5 |
| Anthony Bull | Liberal Democrats | 1,807 | 1.7 | +1.7 |
| Informal | 2,312 | 2.1 | -0.4 |
2022 three-candidate-preferred result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
| Trevor Evans | Liberal National | 45,125 | 41.5 | -9.4 |
| Stephen Bates | Greens | 32,741 | 30.1 | +6.4 |
| Madonna Jarrett | Labor | 30,932 | 28.4 | +3.1 |
2022 two-candidate-preferred result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % |
| Stephen Bates | Greens | 58,460 | 53.7 |
| Trevor Evans | Liberal National | 50,338 | 46.3 |
2022 two-party-preferred result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
| Madonna Jarrett | Labor | 59,183 | 54.4 | +9.3 |
| Trevor Evans | Liberal National | 49,615 | 45.6 | -9.3 |
Booths have been divided into three areas:
- Central – Brisbane, Fortitude Valley, New Farm, Spring Hill, Windsor.
- North East – Ascot, Clayfield, Hendra, Stafford
- West – Alderley, Ashgrove, Ithaca, Kelvin Grove, Newmarket, Paddington, Red Hill
There are two different thresholds that decide who wins Brisbane: firstly, who is leading in the race between Labor and the Greens? And then, after preferences, does the LNP have a majority against the main progressive opponent?
On a two-candidate-preferred basis, the Greens won a majority in two out of three areas, with 58.5% in the west and 61.7% in the centre. The LNP won 54.5% in the south-east. The Greens also won 55.2% of the pre-poll votes and the LNP won 50.8% of the other vote.
On a primary vote basis, the Greens outpolled Labor in two out of three areas, with the Greens primary vote peaking at 34.5% in the centre. Labor outpolled the Greens in the north-east, but that was also Labor’s worst area.
| Voter group | GRN prim | ALP prim | GRN 2CP | Total votes | % of votes |
| West | 30.2 | 29.4 | 58.5 | 20,024 | 18.4 |
| North East | 21.3 | 24.7 | 45.5 | 14,894 | 13.7 |
| Central | 34.5 | 27.4 | 61.7 | 13,777 | 12.7 |
| Pre-poll | 28.1 | 27.9 | 55.2 | 31,934 | 29.4 |
| Other votes | 23.7 | 26.3 | 49.2 | 28,169 | 25.9 |
Election results in Brisbane at the 2022 federal election
Toggle between two-candidate-preferred votes (Greens vs LNP), two-party-preferred votes and primary votes for the Liberal Party, Labor and the Greens.
There always need to be reservations when you know a poll has been commissioned by someone with skin in the game whether it be Advance Australia, trade unions, Climate 200, etc. The same poll had the Greens losing in Wills but seeming to pick up Macnamara. This poll also had Griffith as line ball. Seriously hard to see MCM losing unless by some chance he fell into third place. Brisbane would seem a definite chance of a Labor win, and Ryan a Liberal win. Wills and Macnamara could get really dirty and really expensive. They have to be in with a chance in Richmond as well. If everything fell their way, the Greens could end up with 7 seats but could also end up with just 2 – Melbourne and Griffith.
LNP will win Ryan. Greens will win Griffith on a reduced margin vs LNP. Brisbane is a tossup between Liberal and Labor depeding on where the greens finish. Libs will win if the greens finish second. Labor will win if they finish second. Libs will finish first in all 3 contests.
Labor will retain Wills on a reduced margin and Greens will be a tight contest. but i think libs will finish first there too
@ j9hn
Wh6 cannot the greens win Brisbane
@John In no sane universe will the Liberals ever finish first in Wills. It’s one of the most left wing seats in the country where Labor is perceived as the ‘right wing’ party, whilst the Liberals are the ON/UAP/TOP in that electorate. If anyone else other than Labor was to come first it would have to be the Greens.
@tommo sry i was writing something about macnamara but for whatever reason that did not appear thats what i was refering too. now ive forgotten what is was…
@mick based on 2022 results libs lost votes to both lab and the greens and i expect that to reverse. what i cant say is where they will finish on the 3cp. they will lose enough votes to lose them the seat but i cant be sure who to. and the member simply has not been visible from what i hear. he effectively pulled a Bradbury.
All three major parties are putting a lot of time here, if Labor was smarter they’d let the Liberals and Greens work it out. I think it would be fair to say that out of the 4 Greens seats this appears to be the most vulnerable despite not being the most marginal.
Why shouldn’t Labor contest this? This is probably their best chance of reclaiming a seat from the Greens. Certainly they should have significantly better chances than the Liberals considering how greatly this seat has trended left.
@SpaceFish Brisbane is the most marginal Greens seat
@Am Now – Ryan is the most marginal GRN seat in QLD with a 2.65% majority for the Greens. In Brisbane, the GRN margin is 3.73%. Even on the 2PP count Ryan is more marginal than Brisbane.
Presumably Am Now is referring to the 3CP.
Makes sense. Thanks for clarifying.
In terms of 3CP, Brisbane would undoubtedly be the most marginal GRN seat in Brisbane.
@Am Now, in 3CP and primary vote in Brisbane electorate is the most marginal out of there four seats that the Greens hold but, not in ttp as it is the third most marginal in the ttp. I would say though that these days in close contests like this that the ttp is not that relevant or helpful.
Brisbane requires the smallest amount of the vote to change for the MP to change. Therefore it is the most marginal
For the Greens to lose Melbourne they need a 6.9% swing away (2CP), in Ryan they need a 2.7% swing away (2CP), in Griffith its 2.1% (3CP, For Labor to finish ahead of the LNP), and in Brisbane its 0.8% (3CP)
Libs will not drop from the 3cp in Griffith. Labor’s best chance is to push the greens out
@John I assume you mean the 2CP? Why would the libs not drop from it? The Labor candidate has been running a strong campaign for months, and the Libs still don’t have a candidate. Given there’s only a 1.9% difference in the LNP and ALP primary vote, surely Labor could make the 2CP against the Greens?
Also Brisbane voter here.
I’ve been seeing a lot of Madonna Jarrett ads on TV and social media, have seen a few Madonna corflutes too. I’ve seen a lot of anti-greens ads online over the past few weeks (from “Australians for Prosperity”). I have also seen some anti-greens billboards, and one Trevor Evans billboard. I haven’t seen anything from The Greens yet.
I’m yet to see a corflute from the LNP or Greens, although it’s only been a day since they started being installed in BCC. The Greens usually put corflutes everywhere.
Aa because the 2022 Brisbane vote was a low point for the libs which I expect to rebound libs normally make the 2cp based on primary votes and there should be enough right if centre vote to keep them there. Labor’s increase in vote is likely to come at the expense of the greens.
I’m talking about Griffith for that first comment. Even if Labor’s vote increases at the expense of The Greens, I reckon there’s a chance they could overtake the LNP and make the 2CP vs The Greens
I don’t think so even in Griffith which is what I meant when I said Brisbane libs aren’t missing out on the 2cp. There’s always been enough centre right vote to help them into it. Usually they make it on primary votes and should recover from 2022s low point.