Brisbane – Australia 2025

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90 COMMENTS

  3. Just on Maleny and the Sunny Coast hinterland, the spike in housing cost and rental affordability is really impacting these towns. The towns are struggling with finding casual workers to fill shifts as they can’t afford to live locally. Alot of ex Brisbane, Victorians and Sydney people moving in who are cashed up, while moving out are lower income workers and some of the hippie population. Potentially improves LNP vote a little. Also a few higher end retirement villages are popping up in the Palmwoods area so older population LNP leaning.

    It’s a smaller effect than on the coastal strip of the Sunny Coast and the Gold Coast in general, but it’s certainly a factor.

    The counter is alot of more affordable housing away from Maleny in the Mooloolah valley or even in Palmwoods and Woombye which probably attracting younger families who might have more progressive voters whether Teal or Labor or Greens.

    Could be really interesting to see how the Greens or Teal go in that area and any swing compares the coastal areas.

    Again this Hinterland factor could still be marginal if the coastal strip swings hard LNP or even swings Teal.

  7. I will be paying close attention to the state results of this seat on the weekend. Here’s is my method for calculating them:

    Clayfield + McConnel + Cooper (Brisbane) + Ferny Grove (Brisbane) + Stafford (Brisbane) – Clayfield (Lilley)

    * Suburbs of Clayfield in Lilley: Brisbane Airport, Eagle Farm, Pinkenba
    * Suburbs of Cooper in Brisbane: Ashgrove, Milton, Paddington, Red Hill
    * Suburbs of Ferny Grove in Brisbane: Alderley, Enoggera, Newmarket
    * Suburbs of Stafford in Brisbane: Grange, Newmarket, Wilston, Windsor

    Every booth in Clayfield is located in Brisbane, but the sparsely-populated Brisbane Airport part around Eagle Farm and Pinkenba is Lilley. Eagle Farm and Pinkenba had no state booths in 2020 but if they do in 2024 I’ll just subtract them from the result when determining Brisbane’s TCP.

    My interim TPP that will be updated on election night will be Clayfield + McConnel but after the results are done I should be able to do a full TCP.

  8. Bates is the most likely of the 4 Greens MPs to lose their seat. It’s not just the risk of Liberals getting a swing back to them with a QLD leader at the helm, but also South Brisbane proved you can’t take a Labor->Green swing on primary votes from incumbency for granted, so it’s still a 3 cornered contest. (On current figures) wings against Greens in McConnel, Cooper and Clayfield at the state level are quite worrying.

    He also seems to have kept a pretty low profile (at least nationally) and his portfolios (“LGBT” and “Youth”) haven’t really been at the heart of Green campaigns this term. But maybe it’s different on the ground in the electorate.

  9. @Blue Not John Last time all it took was a few minor party preferences that took the Greens above Labor in 2PP, which had it gone the other way, would’ve likely elected Labor. Any swings to Labor or against the Greens in the Federal election hands the seat to Labor.

    I know that (particularly in Queensland) Federal and State voters vote drastically differently but I feel that distinction is much less in the inner-city than the suburbia and regional areas (e.g. places like Moreton Bay and Northern BCC areas are usuall LNP strongholds on federal levels, but on state levels they’re mostly ALP). It’s quite possible that Labor could gain Brisbane back on a stroke of luck through preferences or when voters feel like they’ve been taken for a ride for nothing, but don’t want the LNP back.

  10. Dutton’s “home state advantage” will help the LNP in less diverse outer suburban seats, like Forde, Blair, Longman and Petrie. It will not help the LNP in inner city seats like Brisbane or Ryan, or multicultural seats like Oxley, Rankin or Moreton.

  11. Labor gain, with the Greens dropping to third place but the LNP remaining in first place. Despite being in the inner-city this was always gonna be the hardest seat for the Greens to hold onto, not just because the Brisbane CBD is more conservative than other CBDs, but also because the Greens barely got into the TCP. Even a small swing from the Greens to Labor would keep them in second on primaries and would allow Labor to win and knock the Greens out of the TCP.

  12. @Np tentatively agreed what I will say is the greens will lose Brisbane. The federal vote of the greens May hold up as the swing to labor in state election can be boiled down to state issues but the Greens will lose the seat. The LNP could still win here on the anti govt swing.

  13. Trevor Evan’s is reportedly the front runner for LNP nomination. This would be a rematch (if Evans gets it) from last time.

    Dutton might be more unpopular here than Morrison was. On top of that, given the loss of LNP incumbency, it would be a struggle for the LNP.

    I’m not sure if Stephen Bates is locally. Following the decline of the Greens vote at various local and QLD/ACT elections in the inner city in the second half of 2024, they have reason to be anxious and I foresee more sandbagging efforts. Bandt will campaign more in Brisbane whilst Faruqi will campaign in Wills in Melbourne.

    The efforts and motivation from both LNP and Labor would make this seat vulnerable. I dont expect visits from Albo or any cabinet ministers or Dutton, the former would be focused on defending seats. What we might see is campaigning from Steven Miles and Grace Grace who are somewhat popular in the inner city.

  17. Labor will lose votes to the LNP too. On that note I’m gonna say toss up but could be a 3 way race. The anti govt swing May help the LNP over the line or help the greens retain.

  18. State level TPP here (2024):

    * Labor: 53.4%
    * LNP: 46.6%

    Labor did 1.0% worse on the state level than they did on the federal level, but the Greens failed to make the TCP on the state level in any seats overlapping with Brisbane. The LNP vote was strongest in the east (around the Clayfield electorate), while Labor did well elsewhere.

    This and Ryan are currently three-way seats, i.e in the most recent elections on each level of politics they have voted for different parties in all three of them. Federally they are both marginal Greens seats, on the state level they are marginal Labor seats and on the council level they are both fairly safe LNP seats. The key is the LNP always manage to finish first or second, it’s just that the other party in the final count is different.

    The federal and state LNP used to be the same but the state LNP is now more moderate and the federal Coalition is shifting rightwards under Peter Dutton’s leadership. However, the BCC LNP have always been moderate and keep getting re-elected. Similarly, federal Labor is more progressive than state Labor which is more moderate while BCC Labor is essentially useless as they still aren’t even getting ground back in local elections (note that Adrian Schrinner is quite a popular Lord Mayor).

  19. id give the ibs good odds of regaining this based on the honeymoon period for the state govt and the fact the federal labor govt is on the nose

  20. According to The Poll Bludger:

    * All of Clayfield except for Brisbane Airport, Eagle Farm and Pinkenba (these suburbs are conservative but don’t have booths)
    * 57% of Cooper
    * 19% of Ferny Grove
    * 100% of McConnel
    * 32% of Stafford

  22. Funny how residents of Brisbane CBD and surrounds have an LNP councillor, a Labor state MP, and a Greens federal MP.

  23. Nicholas, I found Brisbane as a whole is very hard to get a ‘feel’ demographically especially the inner-city parts. I see Brisbane federal district as a combination of multiple Sydney districts (primarily Wentworth, Sydney and Grayndler). You have the CBD itself, many riverside suburbs which are affluent and ‘teal’ like (suburbs like New Farm and Teneriffe resemble the harbourside Eastern Suburbs of Sydney such as Double Bay and Woollahra) and then industrial type suburbs such as Bowen Hills/Albion and Eagle Farm which resemble the industrial Inner west suburbs of Sydney (places like Marrickville and Rosebery).

  24. The outermost suburbs (Hamilton, Wooloowin and Clayfield) are very similar to the riverside suburbs of the Inner West of Sydney (places such as Drummoyne and Haberfield).

  25. Overall, this is why Brisbane (federal) district is a three-way tie because of the diverse demographics contained within it.

  26. Overall, this is why Brisbane (federal) district is a three-way tie because of the diverse demographics contained within it.

  27. Trevor Evans has been preslected in a remathc for Brisbane in 2025. so all 3 major parties are now running the same candidates

  28. so this means the liberals are running a defeated MP in every state they lost a seat in 2022.
    Trevor Evans – Brisbane (QLD)
    Lucy Wicks – Robertson (NSW)
    Tim Wilson – Goldstein (VIC)
    Nicole Flint – Boothby (SA)
    Vince Connelly – Moore (WA)

    although Connelly was defeated in Cowan because his seat (Stirling) was abolished in 2019 and chose to contest Cowan at that time.

  30. If the LNP regain Brisbane and Ryan labor will lose the election without the greens propping them up labor will simply be too far behind and would probably need every crossbemchers to make minority. At that point Dutton would have more seats and would get only the few needed.

  32. @mick i think this will swing back to the lnp on primary votes but if labor makes the 2pp then theyll win it off strong green preferences unless the libs can get their primary back to 2019. otherwise it will be likely a very close lnp v grn result

  36. Cheers Adam. That’s astonishing! It means that the Greens will go from winning the 2CP to falling out of it if the poll is correct.

  38. It seems like the Greens are going backwards in their “heartland” but making some gains in the outer suburbs, which is resulting in a net effect of a static national primary vote around 12%. It’s a really interesting problem for the Greens. On the one hand, they are now trying to become a party of left wing populism and embrace unashamedly interventionist and “radical” economic policies in the grain of Whitlam, Curtin and Chifley, an ideology that the Labor party, since at least Bob Hawke’s time, have generally abandoned.

    Yet, unfortunately for the Greens, much of their voting base seems to be made up of non-unionised, upper income professionals who generally don’t like such a confrontational, unashamedly radical approach that is increasingly advocated for by Max Chandler Mather, Jonathan Sriranganathan and to a lesser extent Adam Bandt (though he is increasingly technocratic). When you think about it, it kind of makes sense – the professional class are more likely to lead comfortable lives, so they don’t want to see such radical change. The things that matter to them tend to be a bit more climate change action, a bit more humane treatment of refugees, loathing of Dutton, but nothing particularly radical in terms of economics and the political system as a whole. It makes sense then that Albanese’s Labor Party – basically a socially “progressive” but economically inoffensive party makes these people feel quite comfortable, especially now that the Greens have become more unpalatable with their more confrontational and “radical” way of doing politics since 2022.

    I think you can draw a similar parallel to what is happening to the Democratic Party in the US. Thomas Frank, a leftist author, has written about this kind of professional class’s capture of the left, as relates to the Democratic party. For example, in a 2016 interview, he said that avoiding “ugly” politics and reaching feel-good consensus “is a very typical way of thinking for the professional class: reaching for consensus..[they think that] politics is this ugly thing that you don’t really need.” I think this helps explain why this “rebranding” of the Greens under Bandt and Chandler-Mather is not reaping rewards. It leads to the question about the wiseness of a strategy that relies on the professional class for votes while at the same time advocating a political approach that the professional class are increasingly uncomfortable with.

  39. GPPS @ 11.59am

    With QLD & The greens, I don’t think they really have gone backwards.
    At the last state election, they actually increased their primary vote by 0.5%.
    I accept they lost primary support in McConnel (which forms part of the Federal Division of Brisbane), and I accept they lost the state seat of South Brisbane, but the latter was mainly because the LNP flipped preferencing.

    With regard to the current 3 Brisbane based Fed divisions, they won them last time without the benefit of LNP preferences. The Green vote statewide has now gone up a notch (ok, only 0.5%), but it hasn’t gone backwards. The ALP vote registered a significant jump in Maiwar, but that was coming off a “freak low”.

    They may be in a bit of trouble in other parts of Australia, but i don’t think they’ll lose their three Federal divisions in QLD. Anyway, my read.

  40. The greens won’t Ryan and Brisbane thanks to the anti lnp vote that got split between laborand the greens but the greens got in front of Labor here anyway thanks to other minor party preferences they will likely lose both to the lnp and labor respectively as the lnp vote recovers.in Brisbane it will push Labor into the 2cp and they will win on strong grn preferences and in Ryan it should remain a lnp vote grn contest but the recovery of the lnp vote should be enough to push them over the line. They will hold Griffith as the grn vote will hold them in the 2cp v the lnp and be elected again on Labor preferences though perhaps a reduced margin

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