Brisbane – Australia 2025

I wonder if Brisbane will ever cross the river again like from 1994 to 2003.
https://handbook.aph.gov.au/Electorate/Brisbane/State/Queensland

@ian doubtful it currently crosses in blair and i don’t see why they would cross it two divisions.

Just on Maleny and the Sunny Coast hinterland, the spike in housing cost and rental affordability is really impacting these towns. The towns are struggling with finding casual workers to fill shifts as they can’t afford to live locally. Alot of ex Brisbane, Victorians and Sydney people moving in who are cashed up, while moving out are lower income workers and some of the hippie population. Potentially improves LNP vote a little. Also a few higher end retirement villages are popping up in the Palmwoods area so older population LNP leaning.

It’s a smaller effect than on the coastal strip of the Sunny Coast and the Gold Coast in general, but it’s certainly a factor.

The counter is alot of more affordable housing away from Maleny in the Mooloolah valley or even in Palmwoods and Woombye which probably attracting younger families who might have more progressive voters whether Teal or Labor or Greens.

Could be really interesting to see how the Greens or Teal go in that area and any swing compares the coastal areas.

Again this Hinterland factor could still be marginal if the coastal strip swings hard LNP or even swings Teal.

@lnp what seat is that

@John it’s in the seat of Fisher

@aa thanks I’m out atm can’t be bothered googling stuff atm. Posting from Watson and Reid this weekend

I will be paying close attention to the state results of this seat on the weekend. Here’s is my method for calculating them:

Clayfield + McConnel + Cooper (Brisbane) + Ferny Grove (Brisbane) + Stafford (Brisbane) – Clayfield (Lilley)

* Suburbs of Clayfield in Lilley: Brisbane Airport, Eagle Farm, Pinkenba
* Suburbs of Cooper in Brisbane: Ashgrove, Milton, Paddington, Red Hill
* Suburbs of Ferny Grove in Brisbane: Alderley, Enoggera, Newmarket
* Suburbs of Stafford in Brisbane: Grange, Newmarket, Wilston, Windsor

Every booth in Clayfield is located in Brisbane, but the sparsely-populated Brisbane Airport part around Eagle Farm and Pinkenba is Lilley. Eagle Farm and Pinkenba had no state booths in 2020 but if they do in 2024 I’ll just subtract them from the result when determining Brisbane’s TCP.

My interim TPP that will be updated on election night will be Clayfield + McConnel but after the results are done I should be able to do a full TCP.

Bates is the most likely of the 4 Greens MPs to lose their seat. It’s not just the risk of Liberals getting a swing back to them with a QLD leader at the helm, but also South Brisbane proved you can’t take a Labor->Green swing on primary votes from incumbency for granted, so it’s still a 3 cornered contest. (On current figures) wings against Greens in McConnel, Cooper and Clayfield at the state level are quite worrying.

He also seems to have kept a pretty low profile (at least nationally) and his portfolios (“LGBT” and “Youth”) haven’t really been at the heart of Green campaigns this term. But maybe it’s different on the ground in the electorate.

@Blue Not John Last time all it took was a few minor party preferences that took the Greens above Labor in 2PP, which had it gone the other way, would’ve likely elected Labor. Any swings to Labor or against the Greens in the Federal election hands the seat to Labor.

I know that (particularly in Queensland) Federal and State voters vote drastically differently but I feel that distinction is much less in the inner-city than the suburbia and regional areas (e.g. places like Moreton Bay and Northern BCC areas are usuall LNP strongholds on federal levels, but on state levels they’re mostly ALP). It’s quite possible that Labor could gain Brisbane back on a stroke of luck through preferences or when voters feel like they’ve been taken for a ride for nothing, but don’t want the LNP back.

Dutton’s “home state advantage” will help the LNP in less diverse outer suburban seats, like Forde, Blair, Longman and Petrie. It will not help the LNP in inner city seats like Brisbane or Ryan, or multicultural seats like Oxley, Rankin or Moreton.

Labor gain, with the Greens dropping to third place but the LNP remaining in first place. Despite being in the inner-city this was always gonna be the hardest seat for the Greens to hold onto, not just because the Brisbane CBD is more conservative than other CBDs, but also because the Greens barely got into the TCP. Even a small swing from the Greens to Labor would keep them in second on primaries and would allow Labor to win and knock the Greens out of the TCP.

@Np tentatively agreed what I will say is the greens will lose Brisbane. The federal vote of the greens May hold up as the swing to labor in state election can be boiled down to state issues but the Greens will lose the seat. The LNP could still win here on the anti govt swing.

Trevor Evan’s is reportedly the front runner for LNP nomination. This would be a rematch (if Evans gets it) from last time.

Dutton might be more unpopular here than Morrison was. On top of that, given the loss of LNP incumbency, it would be a struggle for the LNP.

I’m not sure if Stephen Bates is locally. Following the decline of the Greens vote at various local and QLD/ACT elections in the inner city in the second half of 2024, they have reason to be anxious and I foresee more sandbagging efforts. Bandt will campaign more in Brisbane whilst Faruqi will campaign in Wills in Melbourne.

The efforts and motivation from both LNP and Labor would make this seat vulnerable. I dont expect visits from Albo or any cabinet ministers or Dutton, the former would be focused on defending seats. What we might see is campaigning from Steven Miles and Grace Grace who are somewhat popular in the inner city.

Morrison was toxic for.many reasons Dutton has a fresh start

The Greens rode the anti-Morrison swing.

Labor gain on Greens preferences, the LNP will finish first. Dutton will be toxic here.

Labor will lose votes to the LNP too. On that note I’m gonna say toss up but could be a 3 way race. The anti govt swing May help the LNP over the line or help the greens retain.

State level TPP here (2024):

* Labor: 53.4%
* LNP: 46.6%

Labor did 1.0% worse on the state level than they did on the federal level, but the Greens failed to make the TCP on the state level in any seats overlapping with Brisbane. The LNP vote was strongest in the east (around the Clayfield electorate), while Labor did well elsewhere.

This and Ryan are currently three-way seats, i.e in the most recent elections on each level of politics they have voted for different parties in all three of them. Federally they are both marginal Greens seats, on the state level they are marginal Labor seats and on the council level they are both fairly safe LNP seats. The key is the LNP always manage to finish first or second, it’s just that the other party in the final count is different.

The federal and state LNP used to be the same but the state LNP is now more moderate and the federal Coalition is shifting rightwards under Peter Dutton’s leadership. However, the BCC LNP have always been moderate and keep getting re-elected. Similarly, federal Labor is more progressive than state Labor which is more moderate while BCC Labor is essentially useless as they still aren’t even getting ground back in local elections (note that Adrian Schrinner is quite a popular Lord Mayor).

id give the ibs good odds of regaining this based on the honeymoon period for the state govt and the fact the federal labor govt is on the nose

According to The Poll Bludger:

* All of Clayfield except for Brisbane Airport, Eagle Farm and Pinkenba (these suburbs are conservative but don’t have booths)
* 57% of Cooper
* 19% of Ferny Grove
* 100% of McConnel
* 32% of Stafford