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Here is an unknown
But this seat is situated in a area of declining liberal influence . The north shore of Sydney.
The resignation of the sitting lib Mp and the boundary changes. Maybe shift the vote a couple of % to the teal.
I don’t know if the resignation of the sitting MP necessarily does drag the Liberal vote here, if anything the preselection of a moderate aligned and younger female candidate might help buffer them against the teal vote.
It’s a combo of both