Bradfield – Australia 2025

Measuring the curtains in Fletchers office

Gisele Kaptarian has won preselection as the Liberal’s Bradfield candidate, winning with 200 votes over Warren Mundine’s 170. Third place was Michael Feneley with 16.

Great. A victory for common sense. Hope for a civil campaign.

Common sense. Hope mu ndine gets another shot

Aww bad choice i wanted some one who would certainly lose Bradfield for the first time since 1949

@WL – amazing!! I’m very confident the Liberals should retain Bradfield with an excellent candidate. Common sense has most certainly prevailed.

@WL – amazing!! I’m very confident the Liberals should retain Bradfield with an excellent candidate. Common sense has most certainly prevailed.

Sorry for the duplicate comment

A good result – this should keep the Teal IND vote depressed, allowing Labor a better chance of coming 2nd and challenging for the seat on a wave of anti-Dutton preferences

Leaning towards a Liberal retain now.

Having Moderate candidate does not mean the Libs are safe given Moderate Libs lost their seats to Teals (Labor for Higgins and Greens for Brisbane and Ryan) 2022 because of Scott Morrison and Moderates view Dutton even more unfavorable than even Morrison. I’ll lean Lib retain (due to Kaptarian and favorable demographics to the Libs) but I think Boele would still perform somewhere at least 45% in TPP.

@Marh I agree but the moderate federal MPs that lost lost because of the party not the MPs (because the state MPs were re-elected over teals), but they did better than Tony Abbott and Katherine Deves in Warringah.

Marrh
Julian Simmonds (Ryan) is not a ‘moderate’. His first two acknowledgments of parliamentarians in Hansard were Sen., McGrath & Peter Dutton.

Lib Retain with a slight 2PP swing.

The moderates in the liberal party are a dying breed especially at the federal level.
They have to follow the right wing line.
The teals exist because the “wets” have been either excluded or marginalised. From the liberal party point of view they are better off with a candidates who tilts left …. but then where will Dutton lean?

Bradfield – The LNP selected a moderate on Sat 18-Jan. I suppose it depends how the conservative side takes this (ie: do they undermine, or just get on with the job of getting her elected).

Giselle Kapterian should be a good chance against Nicolette Boele, provided both halves of the NSW Libs join together. Boele has maintained a profile in the electorate since the last election, and often voters reward persistence. The seat did also vote for the Voice.

I think that seat will really come down to whether the NSW Libs continue to squabble or not.

@mick im curious what will the out come of the election who will gain what seats. In your view.

Marrh

Peter Dutton and Julian Simmmonds seem very close in news footage of Queensland campaign rally today.
How do you classify Julian Simmmonds as ‘moderate’?

https://7news.com.au/politics/federal-election/dutton-vows-to-restore-aussie-dream-blasts-weak-albanese-at-coalition-campaign-rally-c-17358608

I have stressed again and again that there are no certainties amongst the marginal seats + -4%. The alp has a very small absolute majority which they likely to lose. At the moment there appears to be a slight swing to the liberals according to the opinion polls. But the better than expected result in Victoria may not eventuate. To say this. Seat was close in 2022 therefore it is certain to change hands is nor that simple. The margins in Deakin Menzies and Bennelong are so close it is difficult to tell.
The election campaign has not started in earnest yet and the environment may well change. To suggest Werriwa and Hawke and Bruce as seats that Labor could lose is wishful thinking.
Dutton has problems
He says the cost of living crisis is all bad but no sugar hits no changes negates his own argument
The nuclear stuff..
Well fantasy…. assumptions that less electricity usage by 2050 is insane
But this is simply a con.due to expire the day after the election
The quality of Dutton’s alternate govt team becomes obvious once you ask who takes over as Dutton’s replacement should he no longer be leader.
If I were considering voting for a teal Dutton ‘s group would not sway my vote the other way

Polls do generally tend to move in favour of incumbents during elections campaigns, even in instances where they don’t win.

In 2022 Labor went in further ahead on the polls than their 2PP which narrowed towards the incumbent Liberals throughout the campaign, and was closer than expected (the beating they took in the seat count was due to losing so many seats to teals and Greens as well).

QLD last year had Labor headed for a landslide defeat, and while they still lost, during the campaign it narrowed significantly and didn’t turn out to be such a huge loss as expected.

In other cases where the incumbent has won, they’ve often over-performed the polls because during the campaign they pulled further ahead. Think Victoria in both 2018 and 2022.

So in general I think election campaigns usually do tend to move the needle in favour of the incumbent (whether they are trailing or already ahead).

Bah I can’t type on my phone.

That second paragraph is meant to say:

In 2022 Labor were in further ahead in the polls before the campaign started than their actual 2PP, which narrowed towards the incumbent Liberals throughout the campaign, and was closer than expected (the beating the Libs took in the seat count was due to losing so many seats to teals and Greens as well).

I would caution a couple of things there Trent.

One is that you are comparing State and Federal, and since the mid 90’s there has been a bias to Labor at State level and Lib/Nat at Federal level, so you might be seeing a reversion to the mean rather than improvement for incumbents.

Also, the 3 State ones you mentioned were 2 seemingly competent State Governments vs Matthew Guy who I find less reputable than a used car salesman, and one in QLD where the incumbent threw the kitchen sink to try and save as much furniture as he could, coupled with an opposition leader who got caught in the headlights Ted Baillieu style. I am not sure either of these should be seen as an indication of a normal campaign, although I already see Albo out there throwing money around so maybe the QLD example is pertinent.

I agree with Trent and even if he’d left out the recent state examples, the evidence base is extremely strong – polls move towards incumbents as the election approaches – it is simply a natural human tendency when comparing voting intentions and the actual act of voting.

BTW – The Guardian Tracker that tries to unskew the current polls on the basis that they are skewed towards Labor, is unscientific horseshit. There is no chance in hell that the Labor primary is 27% as the Guardian currently has it.

https://x.com/NateSilver538/status/861945983143469056

The new suburbs from nth Sydney seem to be more teal friendly… that explains the drop of 1% in the liberal margin. Dis Fletcher have a personal vote? If so how much?
What we are comparing are actual 2022 results and opinion poll projections which show a swing of some sort to the liberals
Dutton’s ideas on
The voice
Nuclear power
would not go well here
Also even if the opinion polls were accurate there is time to change between now and April / May.
But on the other hand for the teals to collect another 2% is a hard ask

Some of the suburbs from North Sydney had a relatively high Teal IND primary, yes – but some had a high Teal IND 2CP count because the Labor primary was high and 75% of those preferences went to the Teal in the overall electorate count, even though they came 3rd or worse in the specific suburb (western side of Artarmon and Chatswood)

Artarmon Central – a close contest between Liberal and Labor
https://results.aec.gov.au/27966/Website/HousePollingPlaceFirstPrefs-27966-2009.htm

A booth in North Sydney that Labor actually won on primary vote
https://results.aec.gov.au/27966/Website/HousePollingPlaceFirstPrefs-27966-11935.htm

And the other half of the same booth where the Liberal’s won, but the IND actually came 4th!!
https://results.aec.gov.au/27966/Website/HousePollingPlaceFirstPrefs-27966-79987.htm

Except for Greens voters, I don’t think nuclear power is actually a huge turn off. There seems to be a much greater acceptance that it may be an option – compared to say 15 years ago when coal was still an option – and that there does need to be a mature conversation about it. My friend who is a scientist and voted Teal last time is really enthusiastic about nuclear and has been positive about Dutton since it became an issue. Even my kids who tend toward the Greens at least want it discussed.

Coal wasn’t an “option” back then either….

The thing is there has been a “mature” conversation about it – about once every 10 years since the late 1960’s. And every time it is brought up, the conclusion is that it is way too expensive to be a sensible source of generation in Australia. But people keep bringing it up (often in an immature way), without mentioning that it was looked at 10-15 years earlier and what the result of that examination was. Basically they take everyone under 35 as idiots, thinking they can’t remember or do not realize that this dead horse has already been flogged several times before in this country.

Your friend , the scientist would know that Dutton’s version of nuclear is not thought through or costed properly and will do nothing in the short term.
His plan expires the day after the election

A scientist might not – they tend to be overly idealistic. An engineer, project manager, or financier would have a very good grasp of the reality.

That’s a good line – “Dutton’s nuclear plan expires the day after the election”

There was a ‘mature’ conversation in 2007 when it was raised – the Labor candidate for Deakin promised no nuclear power stations in the City of Whitehorse – highly mature – lost my vote for that insult to my intelligence. Chris Bowen just said ‘No’ – it is the same with taxation issues such as raising GST or property taxes – a kneejerk ‘No’. Remember the Henry Tax Review – there were so many exclusions from the scope such as GST – and guess what – nothing happened. Occasionally , governments do go against the kneejerk – Howard with the GST and Gillard with Carbon Tax but generally in this country things get ruled out before they get ruled in. This attitude might change if there were 4 year terms with more time to discuss and formulate.

High Street
That’s not how I remembered the nuclear debate.
In the seventies the diabolical problem of nuclear waste made even the extraction of uranium deemed immoral, even when that was done merely as a byproduct of mining other elements. Then there was deemed to be too much profit at stake, and uranium was rehabilitated in the mind of the govt, but only from three particular mines, and only for overseas use. (remember the nuclear safeguards that were applied). The safeguards were watered down over time. One big argument mounted by greenies, in the seventies, was that it would be foolish to use our uranium now, when it could be sat on until a more advantageous point in the future.
I don’t recall cost ever featuring as a reason for anything at all in the eyes of Gough.

This time, we have something of a consensus on climate change, and the plan for a nuclear propelled navy. Two arguments that didn’t feature in the sixties through noughties

High Street
Back in the 60s, 70s, 80s and 90s – coal was so much cheaper and there was so much of it so there was a serious alternative to nuclear for large scale base load power. The science has changed and coal would probably still be cheaper except for the carbon pollution outcomes makes it not environmentally viable any more.

Billy McMahon knocked it on the head for economic reasons in 1971 – long before the Greenies and anti nuclear campaigns took off.
https://theconversation.com/peter-dutton-has-promised-to-solve-our-energy-problems-but-his-nuclear-policy-still-leaves-australians-in-the-dark-232816

Ziggy Z reached the same conclusion. If Howard and the Liberals were willing to acknowledge the cost of carbon emissions in 2007 and put in place a carbon price (as Treasury advised them to do!) then maybe we would be only a couple of years away from a few plants coming on line – but alas – we aren’t.

And times have now changed. If you think we will need large scale baseload power in Australia in 20 years, then fine, go ahead and build your nuclear power plants – bit I’d prefer you invested in them with your own money and not my taxes.

And Phil – a consensus on climate change?! That’s a laugh! Quick, get Matt Canavan and Barnaby on the phone!!!

There are two arguments about nuclear.power :
e about its time frame for introduction 10 years plus
the lack of storage processes for waste
The deadly outcomes of accidents which.can and have occurred
And the Second which I would christen the Dutton plan
We need to try something…. hope they believe us
These have been condemned by his own side the lnp as fantasy
It relies on rubbery figures and inane assumptions

High Street
The combination of Hawke/Keating and the combination of Howard/Costello both went to the 1996 with a policy of building the Alice to Darwin railway.
Howard & Rudd both took an ETS to the 2007 election. History records that Rudd won the election, but the Greens voted down this ETS legislation, &, after deposing Kevin Rudd, Julia Gillard renounced ‘a carbon price’.
John Howard was able to build Alice Springs to Darwin railway, despite the obstacles that had hindered many previous administrations from building it, including Hawke &/or Keating on six atttempts. I’m guessing that Howard was the person who would most likely have introduced an ETS.

I was referring to the Coalition’s 50% emissions reduction target, as representing ‘something of a consensus’, along the way also suggested by Redistributed.

Ok Phil, now you are just making stuff up.

1. Coalition’s 50% emissions target? They don’t have a target. They have rejected the Governments 43% target by 2030 and said they will ne have one going into the election.
2. Yes, you are “guessing” that Howard would have introduced an ETS – totally making it up might be more accurate. It was the most transparent death bed conversion ever seen in Australian politics – walked back immediately, consistently and repeatedly in the 17 years since he lost government.

Just because the Alice Springs to Darwin railway was built doesn’t mean it was a good decision – some – just a little – progress on an east coast fast rail might have been nice…

will the voters in Bradfield prefer a moderate Liberal party member who will go along whatever Peter Dutton does or a moderate independent who will be able to have some influence over the government of the day?

Given the likelihood of a hung parliament and how centre left the teals have been in parliament seats like this are going to go a long way to deciding the PM. Having said that Boele sounds more like Spender than Ryan on that scale

If you assume that a hung parliament is almost certain, then voting for a local independent seems like a good each-way bet. Might be better to have MP who gets to sit at the negotiating table in either outcome, rather than roll the dice on getting either a government or opposition MP.

Boele is very conservative – she states it herself. There’s zero chance of Boele backing a Labor minority government, so she is effectively dealing herself out of negotiations before she even gets there. To indirectly answer your question bazza, Boele’s appeal for voters to vote for her instead of the Liberal is quite weak.

If Bradfield voters want to have influence, voting a Labor MP in would really make a difference. A conservative Teal IND winning this seat will barely be noticed on election night but a Labor win would make the entire nation sit up and take notice. Imagine Labor getting >70 seats and being in a position to form government, and one of those Labor MP’s is the MP for Bradfield.

And before you say its far fetched – the 2PP margin is <6%

@High Street how is Boele a conservative?

Gee, let me think NP.

Perhaps her OWN WORDS. In the local magazine, The POST, she described herself as an “economic conservative”. As opposed to being a Green in Teal clothing, most of the Teals are actually quite to very economically conservative – mouthing concerns about high property prices but with no ideas or intention to actually do anything that may effect typical Liberal voters wealth – voter they mostly rely on to keep them in office, especially on Sydney’s north shore.

Boele is actually an old fashion moderate Liberal/ economic conservative, presenting as some sort of centrist/progressive champion of the community.

To be a teal but not a teal .. puzzles me is this true or just her branding. This maybe just for show… I wonder

@High Street, those comments aren’t making much sense.

First, it’s ridiculous to downplay the significance of the independent vote and to hyperventilate about Labor’s chances here, because:

1. Bradfield has “always been a safe conservative seat”*, so any result other than a Liberal Party hold would be extremely significant.

2. The 2PP contest in Bradfield in 2022 was LIB v IND. The 2PP LIB v LAB result has very little relevance, especially since both major parties had swings against them (LIB -15%, LAB -4%*).

3. It doesn’t even look like Labor has a candidate here yet.

(* https://www.abc.net.au/news/elections/federal/2022/guide/brfd)

That second comment is emblematic of the prevailing negativity in mainstream politics. That’s part of the reason why people are voting for change, and for more constructive policy-making.

@Bazza’s comment does make a lot of sense. The people of Bradfield are choosing between someone who represents a party on their behalf, or someone who represents them directly.

Now that I’m back in Australia I can actually be active on here more.

@High Street that’s what she says to get voters to vote for her. In reality the teals are wolves in sheep’s clothing as they hardly ever vote with the Coalition in Parliament as shown by statistics.

If you vote liberal here you get a “sheep in wolves’s clothing ll” hi I am a moderate liberal I stand for. ….”
But really I have to abide by Dutton’s decisions.
This is the problem… that is why voters on these electorates have s tendency to vote teal.

Thanks for the above comments – quite a bit to work with there – lets dive in!

@Alex – please don’t say my posts don’t make much sense simply because you don’t agree with them. They are based on facts and then I draw conclusions. if you think the conclusions are too bullish for Labor then please say so – that’s fine. But don’t say they don’t make sense.

Lets get a few terminology issues correct. The 2PP is between the LNP Coalition and the ALP. The 2CP is between the last two candidates left in the count. I find myself saying this repeatedly. It is not my definitions but those the AEC apply (quite possibly because its in the Electoral Act).

I am sure you are aware that the parties or candidates that make the 2CP (i.e. the final count) can change from election to election – it did this in many seats in 2022. In some of these seats it may change back. There was a UGov seat poll just last week that showed the parties making the 2CP in the division of Brisbane likely to change in 2025, causing Labor to win a seat currently held by the Greens.

If Labor was to make the 2CP in Bradfield then the 2PP result from 2022 has very high relevance – the swing in 2025 will be measured off that 2022 2PP result. The fact that both parties had PRIMARY vote swings against them is the fact that is rather irrelevant as we don’t decide seats on primary vote in this country. You may not have noticed that in the Senate vote in Bradfield, Labor went up 4%, thus making the 10% 2PP swing that occurred in the House quite realistic.

You refer to a 2022 preview and quote A. Green that Bradfield has “always been a safe conservative seat. Well, I have news. It’s 2025, not 2022. The 2PP margin is around 6% (I believe less as there is likely an error but lets put that aside) and the 2CP as calculated by Ben and William Bowe is 2.5%. So statements that it “has ALWAYS been” anything, are now out of date. Many people are tipping the IND to win – so it would not be that significant at all (let alone extremely), given the starting point for this election. It would also be no great surprise if the 2PP reduced from around 6% to <4%, the traditional measure of a marginal seat.

True, Labor does not have a candidate yet. Unless I have missed it, the election has not yet been called. If you can show me evidence of a statistical link between length of candidacy and success in an election, I'd be happy to read it.

My second comment just presents what I believe she is – if it causes you to vote a certain way, fine, but I'm not aware you speak of behalf a great section of the Australian populace.

Bazza's comment is sensical but incomplete – the people of Bradfield will choose from all the candidates presented to them on the ballot paper. Just like every other electorate. Everyone eligible under the Constitution has a right to stand and deserves respect that their position be heard, and not be written off as a loser before the campaign even begins.

Now onto NP.

Thanks NP – so you are saying she is a duplicitous liar, just like "the rest of 'em"? If so, that's good to get out there. If you examine the voting records, you will find that several Teal IND, notably Tink from North Sydney, always voted with the Liberal's on IR and tax issues. My proposition is that Boele will be the same. They can make nice noises on the speed of climate action, etc, but those decisions are generally made in the Cabinet room. Changes to tax and IR – and the forming of Government – are made on the floor of Parliament, and its quite obvious to me where many of the Teal IND will land on this if Peter Dutton gets close to 76 seats.

Some times the 3cp is very close esp between Labor and greens. It has often been the exclusion order effects whether the the libs can win or not

There is now no such thing.as a safe seat. The 2022 Fowler result and the 2013 Indi result showed that. In seats that are not close classics, people who don’t want.a candidate choose the alternative candidate who can poll best.
In the leafy areas of the North shore that happens to be the teals