Bradfield – Australia 2025

Numbers consolidating, appears to be a 2 horse race between Kapterian and Mundine.
Talk of a possible public endorsement from Gladys for Kapterian in the weeks ahead; unsure if this will carry a positive or negative influence on preselectors.
Dutton, Taylor and Hastie all want Mundine in caucus

If the libs choose..Mundine from 5he
Right
Hello teal

Mundine would be a fatal mistake for the Liberals here.

I think Mundine has the numbers.
He acquiesced Molan and Payne’s senate spots, most branches are conservative if not at least 50%.
There’s also no Indigenous Liberal from NSW in the Reps. Libs/Dutton would probably seek to fill the gap Ken Wyatt left.
At the end of the day, if the swing is on, most non politically attuned voters will just vote for the party not the person. As an example, Goodenough, Hastie and Dutton are all too conservative relative to their electorates but still managed to get elected.
Also this is electorate is not as progressive or moderate as has been reported. It contains a multitude of private schools, churches and 20% mandarin/cantonese speakers which are wedded to the first two. Definitely would favour a more conservative leaning candidate.
Whether that is Mundine remains to be seen. Also will depend on how the Centre Right/Hawke/Farlow direct their numbers

Nothing against Mundine, im anti voice myself, but if he wins pre-election, then the Liberals can say bye-bye Bradfield.

He wouldnt be bad in a different seat, like Macarthur or Werriwa or any other working class Labor seat with a high no vote.

10th time lucky for Warren?

If mundine wins preselection, nicolette wins bradfield… only Kapterian can keep the seat for the liberals

Mundine would not win Werriwa or Macarthur either.

As I said even before the boundary change this is no longer safe for the libs.it was the last seat Billy Hughes held.
When Hughes died a by election was held in 1952… it looked like an Independent would win. The are was very wasp then the liberals put around thr word you could not. Vote for him he was catholic.
This just shows how different the area is 70 years later

Look at Wikipedia for Bradfield votes of over 70% here were quite common
Sometimes over 80% 2pp.
1952 by-election and 2022 election were the only times the liberals polled less than 60% 2pp

None of “a multitude of private schools, churches and 20% mandarin/cantonese speakers which are wedded to the first two” is proof that this is a conservative area. I’m not even sure there are a multitude of churches.

And the private schools are people so wealthy they can afford to vote against their own financial interests if they wish, as they have in the last 2 elections. This new seat was on 2PP margin of >20% two elections ago – its now <6%. Throw Mundine into the mix, and the seat may erupt!

@dragons im inclined to agree with you. i love mundine as much as the next person and would love to see him in parliament but they need to find the right seat for him. right now the teals have a portion of the market in that area and he wont win against boele.

Had posted in the wrong page:
A lot of the Teal hype against a perceived arch-conservative like Mundine seems to be drawing the same conclusions against what happened to Abbott in Warringah.
I’m still of the belief you could run any Liberal in Bradfield at this next election and win, purely because of the normalisation and swing against Labor and back to the Coalition. Particularly in high income electorates.
The Teal here isn’t as high profile as Steggall and Mundine isn’t as divisive or even as well-known as Abbott.
Whoever Libs run will have a swing to them, as the Teal movement has run out of gas.
All Dutton and co have to do is rehash the same lines Abbott did in 2013 against the perceived detriment cross-benchers pose in propping up a Labor-Greens-Independent government. And emphasise stability via majority government.
It’s also not like Mundine will be on the front bench, so any perceived damage or controversy he would cause is also grossly exaggerated

I wouldn’t completely rule out Mundine winning, but against Boele I certainly wouldn’t tip him.

Agreed that this electorate is a bit less progressive than Warringah or Wentworth however.

Mundine lost Gilmore in 2019, in an election where the Libs got massive swings in working class rural electorates. Why would they give him a 2nd chance? He is the Kristina Keneally of 2019

@drake to be fair that was a mistake made by ScoMo not Mundine. it was because he was new on the scene and had only recently became a member and then they shafted the previously preselected candidate and that likely cost them votes. Mundines profile has been boosted by the Voice campaign and hes a hero to the conservative movement now.

Less progressive than electorates containing Mosman and Vaucluse!

Holy Moly, it must be horrible for anyone that’s not a dyed in the wool blue blood….

they werent voting against him like KK they were voting against the way they (the liberal party and scomo) treated the previous candidate

@Drake:
Mundine had no connection to Gilmore, the Mundine clan is originally from the NSW North Coast, Warren grew up in Western NSW.
It seems like virtue signaling, but is virtue signaling why the Teals won 6 seats and nearly a few more in ’22, orwere there other factors?
**************************************************
Personally, I thought Mundine started to go off script during The Voice Campaign and Price did a better job.
The other issue is Ken Wyatt repudiated the Liberal Party once he lost his Seat, I wonder how loyal ex Labor President Mundine would be.
****************************************************
Dutton did talk about legislating The Voice, you’d hope he wouldn’t be stupid enough to revisit that in Government?

“the Teal movement has run out of gas.”

A big claim to make. Citation needed.

“All Dutton and co have to do is rehash the same lines Abbott did in 2013 against the perceived detriment cross-benchers pose in propping up a Labor-Greens-Independent government. And emphasise stability via majority government.”

So… the exact same lines they ran in 2016, 2019, and 2022? Why expect a reversal of fortunes by repeating the same tactics?

@High Street yes those suburbs are conservative still and still vote Liberal on the federal and state level but they have less conservative parts which make them overall less conservative than Bradfield. For example, in Wentworth, while Vaucluse is conservative and old money, Bondi is very tealish and is perhaps a teal heartland. Wentworth has a noticeable north-south divide (Double Bay and Vaucluse in the north, Bondi and Bondi Beach in the south).

the coalition are now favourites to form government on the betting markets

@John they have been for a while. Still not too sure though.

@NP im personally saying it will be a coalition minority atm.

2013 does not equal 2025
Foe starters Labor is governing in majority not minority.Also Abbott made promises he could not keep till he went mad and knighted prince Phillip.
Small target stuff does not always work
And the nuclear costings stuff sort of shows that the lnp is er lost. Unless the climate is much more anti Labor you cannot win by saying we are not labor

Adda- When have Labor won Bradfield? The same lines absolutely would work, especially when Tennis Albo is deeply on the nose in this part of the world.
Re: Teals losing mojo, Council elections weren’t exactly watershed moments for Teals nor were there performances In the state seats of Davidson and Hornsby.

Mick- Agree this isn’t 2013. Abbott isn’t running and Albo is the one who broke promises.
I’d hardly call Dutton’s nuclear plan small target and by all accounts based on polling and betting markets appears to be a vote winner with an exhausted public struggling with cost of living pressures

Teals are LGA type pols.
Sure, they’ve got money backing them but no political machine.
Perhaps a couple will last another term or 2, but none of them had any working experience in Parly before being elected, so I doubt they achieved anything for their electorates.
Certainly the NACC has been a disappointment, Zali Steggall went hard on that, she’s been quiet lately.

Hey Fatty Paytheman. Please go back to the Pollbludger and just post there – here at the Tallyroom we like to base the discussion in some facts (perhaps apart from John).

Mick didn’t say that Dutton’s nuclear plan was small target – he said small target doesn’t work AND the nuclear costings stuff sort of shows that the lnp is er lost. The obvious point was that when Dutton strays from being small target, he sinks in the detail – that’s why he never attempts any. Angus Taylor is not much better.

I don’t see or hear of Albo being deeply on the nose in this part of the world – do you live in Bradfield? I have Liberal voters saying to em that they do not recognize the party anymore.
Further, to state that polling since last Friday demonstrates support for nuclear brain fart designed only to stop the transition to renewables, is idiotic.

The Nuclear plan talks of stuff intended for the never never time. The costings are like a pea and thimble trick.
I cannot believe any one besides rusted on lnp voters would fall for this. I cannot believe if an undecided voter looked at this would believe it is anything but a con.

The nuclear plan is quite detailed. Frontier Economics laid out a pretty detailed plan but if you think there are short falls, I’d love to see the counter arguments specific to their quantitative and qualitative analysis

https://www.frontier-economics.com.au/economic-analysis-of-including-nuclear-power-in-the-nem/

Albo is deeply on the nose. Most of the media has turned on him especially the commercial TV stations, of which he relied heavily on the likes of 7 and 9 to get him across the line.
I guess for those who don’t have an opinion either way is probably because he’s never in the country.
Concurrent with many left wing pundits continually underestimating Dutton, will I think lead to a lot of similar reaction and disappointment to that of the Trump victory when he becomes PM.
Back to Bradfield, I have 2 investment properties there, but regardless of that I think voters will be far more motivated by economics than social issues. For all of the Libs faults, the nuclear plan is at least a proactive option that has been detailed and costed. It will be part of a mix of energy options just as renewables and fossil fuels will be.
Renewables are cheap to build but expensive to maintain. Nuclear is expensive to build but cheap to maintain. Dutton’s plan is use a bit of everything and you’re not solely reliant on one energy source.
This makes the market more competitive which in turn brings costs to the consumer down. At the same time emissions reduce with an uplift in nuclear and renewables.
Which I think is why Albo is struggling in the polls/markets, he has a poor Energy spokesman who is on track to lose his seat and has been too preoccupied with peripheral issues that many Australians don’t care about.
Teals/Independents should’ve focused on a seat like Berowra, where Leeser is more vulnerable as a weaker MP

Labor’s problem re Nuclear is they’ve already signed up to the Nuclear Cycle with the Subs, meaning they can’t go hard on the real issues such as Nuclear Waste, radiation and contamination of cooling water.
Perhaps The Greens will go there?
Telling Australians that they’re too dumb to build a Nuclear Power industry, which is more or less Chris Bowen’s line, has limited prospects, imo.
***************************************************
Prospects of a Coalition win after 1 term, anything’s possible, Shorten would’ve done it, if Abbott hadn’t been replaced, imo.
Libs are down to 38 now, 3 more are retiring, that’s 35, and they’ll probably lose Sturt, 34, so they’ll have 25 newbies if they just fall over the line with 76, assuming Nationals hold their 17 and don’t regain Indi.
That’s a lot of greenhorns going straight into Government expected to hit the ground running.

To exterminate the teals the Liberals would be better off losing this election and have them side with Labor. They would easily beat them then.

Agree Darth Vader, if the Coalition takes office with just a narrow majority or even worse in minority relying on the support of Katter plus some teals then it makes their job harder and it would be easier for Labor to try and return to office the next eelction.

@yoh the only teals that will side with the liberals are Spender and Chaney. Ryan, Daniels, Stegall and Scamps have all made their opinions on Dutton known. if labor falls into deep minority whihch is their best bet atm in my opinion the liberals would come in 2028 and wipe them out. dutton would then be looking at an Abbot style win in 2028 as well im talking 90+ MPs. also if the libs got in govt in 2025 they would probly take credit for solving CoL when interest rates go down so they would likely win in 2028 anyway

@You An The problem will be the Senate. Currently they have 32 seats but can reasonably rely on the two ONP senators and UAP. That is assuming the Linerals get 3 senators and ONP 1 at the next election. So thats 35. If they could somehow topple Gallagher in the ACT and then Lambie in Tasmania they could get 37 and then rely on Tyrell, Pocock or Payman. Labor’s prospects are similarly smaller in the only real place they can pickup a spot is in Queensland at the expense of ONP or the LNP. 2028 is even more dangerous for them in they can’t really gain anymore senate spots and stand to lose one in WA and maybe QLD as well.

Fatty Paytheman

The counter argument to the Dutton Nuclear con is the AEMO ISP and the CSIRO NextGen report. Its all there and has been for several years.

This is a new one:

“Renewables are cheap to build but expensive to maintain. Nuclear is expensive to build but cheap to maintain”

What a load of crap!!! A complex facility like a nuclear power plant will cost Zillions of dollars to maintain – the mechanical and electrical equipment will need to be renewed very 20 years of so. The only thing left after 80 years will be the concrete structures and bitumen roads – and even they will need major repairs.

The big thing that was clearest from the announcement last week is that when the Liberals say “nuclear and some renewables” the “some” means no more than we are already building. That’s the whole point of it. Its not actually intended as a plan to be implemented at all – its a plan to waste 2 terms of government so that just before the end of the second one, the Nationals can get there way and the federal government will need to fund the build of new coal fired plants.

I wouldn’t rule out either the teal nor Liberal in Bradfield. I have this as a tossup but it will depend on the Liberal candidate and the preselection process.

Did Paul Fletcher have a strong personal vote? His retirement came as a surprise and created speculation that he didn’t think he would retain or he or the party thought someone else would do better. I mentioned earlier that he went on anti-teal tirades for some time, indicating he was concerned. The redistribution was not kind to him.

Anyone know how much of the Tink campaign moved onto to join Boele’s campaign? The difference between both campaigns in 2022 was pretty big. If Boele had the money and resources, it probably would’ve meant a different outcome.

“IAdda- When have Labor won Bradfield? The same lines absolutely would work, especially when Tennis Albo is deeply on the nose in this part of the world.
Re: Teals losing mojo, Council elections weren’t exactly watershed moments for Teals nor were there performances In the state seats of Davidson and Hornsby.”

Your best evidence for “teals running out of gas” is when they get big primary vote swings and win a seat on the state level, and similarly on the local? State and local run on different issues, moreover the NSW and local Liberals are much more responsive to these areas, plus we have OPV in state elections. They were never going to be close to the same level of success as they were on the Federal level. To not sweep away every single Liberal they face is setting a ridiculous standard for success, and does not hold up to your claim of them “running out of gas” when they were a nonexistent force 4 years prior and earned 20+% in primary votes across multiple seats.

I do like how you brought up Albo completely unprompted with the cheap barb in tow. If you think that Sky News talking points are going to win back teal seats for Liberals, you have another thing coming. The Liberals relying on the same talking points to win white working class seats will not work for the teals. They occupy two different worlds. It’s appealing for the Liberals to think they can win both by following the Sky News blueprint, but that’s not how reality works.

If you think the Liberals are sure to hold on to Bradfield, why would Fletcher retire? Apparently the teals are dead, buried and cremated after all…

Good comments from Adda

@Adda;
Perhaps Fletcher got a heads up that he wasn’t going to be a Minister in the next Coalition Gov’t, whenever that is, and quit rather than go to the backbench?
Keith Pitt [NP; Hinkler] quit today, gave the Nationals leadership a spray on the way out.
Given Hinkler is fairly safe and Pitt is fairly ambitious, what other reason could there be than his career was never going anywhere?

Votentate
Not kind?
Fletcher holds the bluest of blue ribbon seats which is severely under quota. With four under quota seats to his south (lower North Shore including Bennelong) The redistribution sees Bradfield hold all of the existing electors, & merely gain some unattached electors who were created by the abolition of one of the aforementioned Lower North Shore electorates. Hard to see how the committee could have treated him in any manner that was more kindly.

High Street,

The problem is that neither the CSIRO nor AEMO are economic modellers, or at least not primarily, whereas that is what Frontier economics does. So I would actually expect its figures to be much better than the other 2. That is before we get into the people who have looked into the GenCost and ISP and found them wanting (one obvious one as I understand it, is the bulk of the transmission cost is ignored). The fact that the ALP put out an Instagram with the archetypal crazy Greens lady is I think proof they can’t attack the modelling.
And wind turbines need a huge amount of maintenance, solar not so much.

The point of this though for Dutton is that for any Teal seat/target seat, providing a pathway to net zero by 2050 helps signify that the Libs take climate change seriously, and a plan that provides steady base load power signifies to outer suburban voters he won’t let the power go out. Labor seems to be struggling to counter that.

@Gympie ” I doubt they achieved anything for their electorates”

I guess it depends if voters prefer an independent doing nothing for their electorate or a Liberal party member doing nothing for their electorate

I think also if the LNP look like winning that might tip the favour to the Teal in this electorate. A lot of Liberal leaning voters would probably prefer a Peter Dutton minority LNP government needed cross-bench support than Peter and Queensland LNP doing what they want

Dam all the rivers in Queensland and nsw
That way you will have all the water and electricity ever needed!
Build nuclear reactors this will be safer and cheaper!
Which is the more inane and impractical idea?

Mostly Labor Voter.

1. You don’t think CSIRO and AEMO might have the ability to engage an economic modelling consultant, when they need one.
2. From the reporting and the LNP own proclamations on the Frontier work, it doesn’t include any economic modelling! – all they have done is add up two columns of capital cost numbers, that aren’t even comparable.
Perhaps you might like to have a read of this: https://reneweconomy.com.au/frontier-economics-and-its-house-of-cards-case-for-nuclear/
3. Sounds like you rely too much on LNP spin for your “understandings” of the ISP….
4. You do a disservice to outer suburban voters that they would be swayed by such rot. There is actually higher penetration of solar PV in outer suburbs than in Teal seats. They are going to respond really well to being told their solar will be switched off for most of the day when the sun is out hand have to but electricity at a high cost than be able to self consume from the PV system they have purchased.
5. If you think that anyone in a Teal seat that is not already a Liberal party card carrying member is convinced this con is “helps signify that the Libs take climate change seriously” you need your head read.

The lnp with their nuclear policy hope
They can con the voters ..To believe they have a policy it is cheaper and it works.
Anyone who looks at this properly will believe it is just an ill thought out idea designed to tide them over till the election is over.

The lnp with their nuclear policy hope
They can con the voters ..To believe they have a policy it is cheaper and it works.
Anyone who looks at this properly will believe it is just an ill thought out idea designed to tide them over till the election is over.

Essentially, the Liberals are saying they’ll keep burning Coal until Nuclear is ready to roll.
In other words, the lights and all essential services will stay on.
All Labor has to do is match that until renewables are powering Australia 24/7/365.
*****************************************************
Amusing that Labor say Nuclear is too expensive.
Is that a first for Labor, an infrastructure project that’s too expensive?