LIB 2.5% vs IND
Incumbent MP
Paul Fletcher, since 2009.
Geography
Northern Sydney. Bradfield covers the Ku-ring-gai council area and most of the Willoughby council area. Key suburbs include Wahroonga, St Ives, Pymble, Turramurra, Killara, Lindfield, Gordon, Roseville, Castle Cove, Chatswood, Willoughby and Artarmon.
Redistribution
Bradfield shifted south, taking in about one third of the abolished seat of North Sydney. Specifically Bradfield took in most of the Willoughby council area, including Artarmon, Castlecrag, Middle Cove, Naremburn, Northbridge and Willoughby. The suburb of Hornsby was moved from Bradfield to Berowra, so the electoral boundary now mostly follows the local government boundary between Hornsby and Ku-ring-gai. The seats of North Sydney and Bradfield both had a teal independent in the final two-candidate-preferred count, and the changes reduced the Liberal margin against those independents from 4.2% to 2.5%.
History
The seat was created for the 1949 election, and has always been held by the Liberal Party.
It was first won by former Prime Minister Billy Hughes in 1949. Hughes had been an MP since he won election to the NSW colonial parliament in 1894, and had then held the federal seats of West Sydney, Bendigo and North Sydney. He had originally served as a Labor prime minister before leaving the party over the issue of conscription and leading the new Nationalist party. He eventually ended up in Robert Menzies’ Liberal Party and was the last remaining member of the first federal Parliameent to hold a seat.
Hughes died in office in 1952, and the ensuing by-election was won by state Liberal MP Harry Turner.
Turner held the seat for the next twenty-two years, and never rose to a ministerial role during twenty years of Coalition government. He retired at the 1974 election, and was succeeded by David Connolly.
Connolly also held Bradfield for twenty-two years, and was expected to take on a ministerial role after the 1996 election, but lost preselection to Brendan Nelson, former president of the Australian Medical Association.
Nelson won Bradfield in 1996 and quickly rose through the ranks of the Liberal government, joining the cabinet following the 2001 election and serving first as Minister for Education and then Minister for Defence.
Following the defeat of the Howard government in 2007, Brendan Nelson was elected Leader of the Opposition, narrowly defeating Malcolm Turnbull in the party room. His leadership was troubled by low poll ratings and being undermined by Turnbull and his supporters, and Nelson lost a leadership spill in September 2008. Nelson resigned from Parliament in 2009, triggering a by-election in Bradfield.
The 2009 Bradfield by-election was held in December, and was a contest between the Liberal Party and the Greens, with the ALP declining to stand a candidate, along with a field of twenty other candidates, including nine candidates for the Christian Democratic Party. While the Greens substantially increased their vote, Liberal candidate Paul Fletcher comfortably retained the seat. Fletcher has been re-elected five times.
Candidates
Sitting Liberal MP Paul Fletcher is not running for re-election.
Assessment
If the teal independents were to pick up an extra seat in 2025, Bradfield is a very clear frontrunner. The seat has taken in about a third of an abolished seat that has been represented by an independent for the last three years, and the previous form of Bradfield had a strong independent of a similar style and political ideology in 2022.
Nicolette Boele has been actively campaigning for Bradfield since her 2022 defeat. She will be a serious contender, but the particular circumstances that led to independents winning in northern Sydney in 2022 is not quite so present now.
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing | Redist |
| Paul Fletcher | Liberal | 43,562 | 45.0 | -15.3 | 43.7 |
| Nicolette Boele | Independent | 20,198 | 20.9 | +20.9 | 22.9 |
| David Brigden | Labor | 16,902 | 17.5 | -3.7 | 17.7 |
| Martin Cousins | Greens | 8,960 | 9.3 | -4.4 | 8.6 |
| Janine Kitson | Independent | 3,018 | 3.1 | +3.1 | 2.4 |
| Rob Fletcher | United Australia | 2,496 | 2.6 | +0.7 | 2.3 |
| Michael Lowe | One Nation | 1,568 | 1.6 | +1.6 | 1.5 |
| Others | 1.0 | ||||
| Informal | 3,616 | 3.6 | -0.5 |
2022 two-candidate-preferred result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing | Redist |
| Paul Fletcher | Liberal | 52,447 | 54.2 | 52.5 | |
| Nicolette Boele | Independent | 44,257 | 45.8 | 47.5 |
2022 two-party-preferred result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing | Redist |
| Paul Fletcher | Liberal | 54,685 | 56.5 | -10.0 | 56.2 |
| David Gordon Brigden | Labor | 42,019 | 43.5 | +10.0 | 43.8 |
Booths have been divided into three parts. Polling places in the Ku-ring-gai council area have been split in two while those in the Willoughby council area have been grouped together.
The Liberal Party won 55.8% of the two-candidate-preferred vote in North Ku-ring-gai, while independents won 50.7% in South Ku-ring-gai and 53.6% in Willoughby.
Labor came third, with a primary vote ranging from 14.4% in North Ku-ring-gai to 21.1% in Willoughby.
| Voter group | ALP prim | LIB 2CP | Total votes | % of votes |
| South Ku-ring-gai | 16.5 | 49.3 | 21,377 | 19.2 |
| North Ku-ring-gai | 14.4 | 55.8 | 19,083 | 17.1 |
| Willoughby | 21.1 | 46.4 | 16,671 | 15.0 |
| Pre-poll | 18.8 | 52.7 | 33,487 | 30.1 |
| Other votes | 17.6 | 57.2 | 20,709 | 18.6 |
Election results in Bradfield at the 2022 federal election
Toggle between two-candidate-preferred votes (Liberal vs Independent), two-party-preferred votes and primary votes for the Liberal Party, independent candidates and Labor.
Drove past the St Ives pre-poll today.
Boele seemed to have the most volunteers
Yes, drove past a Chatswood voting centre and found the same – interestingly enough, most of the Liberal volunteers were for Scott Yung in neighbouring Bennelong, not for Gisele Kapterian. There was only about 2 posters up for her vs. 10 or so for Scott, despite not being his area.
Wombater
Pre Poll booths are often shared between electorates so having both makes sense. Sometimes they can be quite a way outside the electorate but linkage factors come into play.
Yeah, it’s normal for a pre-poll booth to cater for two or more electorates. In Sydney’s CBD, there are three pre-poll booths covering most electorates in greater Sydney.
Before Easter, I was in Chatswood Mall and there were tons of Scott Yung’s corflutes popped up and volunteers handing out fliers. It was interesting because it’s not even part of Bennelong.
@Redistributed
True, I was just surprised by the ratio of Kapterian to Yung posters (about 1:5) given the location of the pre-poll booth. One would expect it to be 50/50, or the other way around given it was in her electorate.
@Votante
That seems to be the concerning part for Gisele. Bradfield now encompasses Chatswood and to be outshone by someone who isn’t even a candidate in the electorate is concerning.
On 2022 boundaries, it would be understandable but with the redistribution, there’s really no excuse. Scott Yung’s campaign manager is doing a much better job than Kapterian’s manager for sure, as I think Yung’s manager recognises Chatswood as a major CBD for many Bennelong voters, whilst Kapterian’s manager perhaps doesn’t (despite it actually being in her electorate).
drove through both Bennelong and Bradfield yesterday. Did seem more corflutes up for Yung than anyone else (plus the big billboard in Ryde).
There was a distinct lack of anything in Bradfield (Liberal or otherwise) outside of the St Ives pre-poll
Boele was forced by Ausgrid to take all her illegally erected posters down this week.
Scott Yung is a pest
Willoughby PPVC is taking Bennelong ordinary early votes, as is Crows Nest. I think because both Lane Cove, Crows Nest and Willoughby were part of North Sydney in 2022 and very stupidly there is no PPVC in Lane Cove proper, a lot of people drove to Willoughby from other parts, and the AEC feels like they need to let them do so again, even though Willoughby is not close to the border now. There was 5x as many Bradfield voters there this week as Bennelong, so Scott Yung is rally over the top.
All tip and no iceberg
Scott Yung is working on the basis that a lot of Chinese voters go to Chatswood to shop, eat, etc. Rather than somewhere close to home because they feel comfortable there. Box Hill is similar. So on his part quite a good ploy. Not sure how Chatswood went last time but serious damage was done to the Liberal vote at the Box Hill pre poll. Maybe a lesson has been learned. Might help Gisele also if the Liberal brand is associated with an Asian background face.
By the way, what news of our friend Andy Yin and his pre poll effort?
The Asian population of Lane Cove is small compared to Ryde or Willoughby Councils to the west and east. Given Chatswood is a major shopping, commercial and transport hub, there’d be a lot of people of all backgrounds going there.
@Wombater, when I was in Chatswood, there were Andy Yin and Gisele Kaptarian signs as well as Scott Yung signs. There were so many candidate branded shirts that it looked like polling day. That was before Easter.
There’s an Andy Yin sign inside the Burwood Plaza food court, thought that was very strange.