Bradfield – Australia 2025

There’s hype surrounding Bradfield. This is one to watch.

Kylea Tink says that she won’t run next year. Nicolette Boele has been campaigning all term. The newly added southern parts (the old North Sydney) don’t have Paul Fletcher as their local member. The outcome will depend on if Boele or Fletcher can improve on their previous result and if support for Tink can convert to support for Boele.

Ben,

I know that there is not really a better option, but leading with the 2022 result in the data section for Bradfield when the seat has changed so much – taken in such a large part of the old North Sydney – is pretty misleading. I think for a seat like this you need another table that presents the Party’s and Others vote across the new electorate based on the 2022, instead of simply presenting the 2022 results as if there are small tweaks to the boundaries.

Also, the difference in the change in result from the redistribution for the 2CP vs 2PP, does not make sense, and it is surprising that no-one has questioned why it would be (the 2CP margin reduces 1.7% but the 2CP reduces just 0.3% – there is no way that is right if the 2022 results in each seat are right.
There is an apparent large error on the 2PP North Sydney result at the North Willoughby PPVC, which everyone is ignoring – it would take about 0.8% off the 2PP margin

@Votante

So as of Saturday, Tink is out. “Handed over” to Boele apparently – oddly on the shore of Sydney Harbour at what looks to be Milson’s point, which is no where near the new Bradfield. I think this sort of thing just shows that the Teals funded by Climate 200 are actually a Party with no voting solidarity, but prefer this ruse of being “Independent” so they can continue the holier than though “we are of the Community” hoo ha.

Note that if Boele is such a good chance to win, then based on 2022 results across the old seats, especially when taking the Senate votes into account, Labor would be a shot too. If Boele wins by 2.5% the 2PP is close to 50/50, although you won’t hear the Teal Weekly (aka Sydney Morning Herald) mention that.

I think fletcher should hold on here. 2022 was spot different to 2025

That 2PP error would explain the difference between the 2PP and 2CP. I’m not going around hunting down AEC errors. Another one was identified for a booth in Wills. The 2PP count for these seats was conducted much later and had no impact on the result so no surprise.

I’m happy with the table format. The redistributed figures are right there.

If a seat was 30% one former seat and 70% another but the name of the seat with the 30% contribution continued on for the new seat – which set of previous result would you use – that’s more my point. The Bradfield 2022 results do not represent a good indication of what happen in the new Bradfield area, in 2022

Think Nicolette would lose. Fletcher didn’t even try in 2022 and Nicolette had everything going for yet she still lost. New areas are unfavourable to both Paul and Nic. 2025 has completely different election issues compared to 2022, she won’t fair well in St Ives especially after Oct 7.

Fletcher’s just announced he’s stepping down next election. Another one (Moderate) bites the dust.

Just adds to the drama of this race now that all of this has happened all in a space of the year that hasn’t even finished (What with redistribution, North Sydney gone, Kylea Tink stepping down).

Adding to the previous comment, his departure would likely mean that this race is now wide open. Perhaps Boele will have a chance given she’s now technically the default ‘incumbent’ having run in 2022 and running again next year?

I guess we know how to answer the question of where Gisele Kapterian will be pre-selected after losing North Sydney…

ok now im abit concerned that Boele may actually win here. what was Fletcher thinking ?

@John perhaps he either (inside of him) was not really content with the future of the Liberal party moving further to the right (he’s a moderate), or the fact that he’s got a decent chance of losing anyway so decided to jump ship before it sank?

Not the biggest fan of him but as a moderate presence he’ll be missed from the party.

“Fletcher’s just announced he’s stepping down next election.”
Good.
I voted against him last time as he is useless.Hopefully the Liberals will now select a better candidate.
As to Nicolette Boele,she did well last time,but the Teals have been exposed and the issues in the election(falling living standards) are not matters on which they can campaign persuasively.

@tommo i met him once and he seemed like and ok guy

I actually think Fletcher’s resignation has the potential to improve the Liberal prospects in this seat. As things stand I think the seat is pretty close to 50/50. I have had some dealings with Fletcher and generally have a positive view of him, but he’s hardly the most charismatic politician and strikes me as someone who (not unreasonably given he was first elected in 2009) never expected to have to fight difficult campaigns just to hold his seat.

If the local Liberal branches are smart (big if) and preselect an impressive younger female candidate, in a tightly-contested race that could improve their chances of holding the seat from around 50% to say 70%. Like the remainder of upper-middle class Australia, the political character of the seat is changing due to the increase in apartments along the train line (bringing young professional ALP/Green renters who either preference or tactically vote for Teals) and affluent residential home-owners who reflect the moderate “small-l” liberal vote who are increasingly siding with the left of politics and are for that reason voting Teal. All else being equal however, this should still be a Liberal seat, particularly because the seat retains the solid Liberal area of St Ives, which is likely to be particularly strong for the Liberals given the views of the local Jewish population on the Israel/Palestine conflict.

I’ll add some un-solicited advice that the Liberals could do a lot worse than preselect Gisele Kapterian, the previously preselected candidate for North Sydney.

I can’t say I know Fletcher well, but he comes across as joyless, grumpy, and cynical. From a purely theatrical perspective, I find it quite fitting that he serves as Manager of Opposition Business.

@Nicholas I agree. He’s about as exciting as ditchwater with not a lot of charisma and certain seemed like he inherited a ‘safe’ seat and would hold it for as long as he wanted. Felt like he really just had his day and should’ve either gone to the backbench or retire earlier.

Funnily enough having served in the same position prior to winning, Tony Burke as Manager of Opposition Business was much more effective and he knew his stuff, whereas Fletcher comes across as sometimes lost on the brief and unaware of parliamentary procedures during parliament.

Another moderate gone unfortunately.

Whether or not a teal wins this or not depends on the candidate.

Bradfield used to be a seat where they weighed the liberal votes not counted them. Since it was created in 1949 it has always returned liberal members of parliament.
Now with the teals it has become a real contest.
The teal candidate needs to improve her vote by a couple of percent to win
It is likely Fletcher had some personal vote if so then this seat becomes line ball.

@Tommo @JS
Which part of the old North Sydney was Kapterian from again? I vaguely remember it being Willoughby but I am not 100% sure (I could be confusing with the Hornsby By Election parachute candidate, or they could both be from Willoughby.

@Leon Willoughby sounds right but don’t quote me on that. Ultimately I don’t think it matters too much if she doesn’t currently live in the seat, as long as she lives in the general north shore area and commits to moving into the seat. I think so much depends on candidate selection here, if a relatively young female professional runs for the Liberals that signals to the voters that she will be different to the rightwing conservative male Liberal stereotype, regardless of whether the female candidate’s views are actually that different to those of the rest of the Liberal Party (think Gladys Berejiklian (although she definitely should not run haha)).

This AFR article says Willoughby, which is in Bradfield: https://www.afr.com/politics/federal/push-to-dump-liberal-s-chinese-candidate-in-bennelong-20240615-p5jm0l

Very much looks like Fletcher jumped before he was pushed.

Paul Fletcher went on anti-teal tirades so I suspect he was concerned about his seat. I am not saying it is the reason why he’s leaving. I don’t think he got pushed. It’s not worth the risk to push out someone, especially a shadow front bencher, in a marginal seat unless he or she is super unpopular. Scott Yung ended up getting preselection for Bennelong.

To those mentioning St Ives, the Jewish population is 8% or so. It’s not as big as in the eastern suburbs. This neck of the woods is mainly Liberal-voting to begin with.

There was very likely a Liberal internal poll undertaken last week – I was polled and have it on good authority that it was by a firm that has regularly done Liberal internal polling. On the assumption the results have been revealed to Fletcher (not a given) it might be that this revealed to him how hard it was going to be to hold on, and he decided the balance of probability was that the Liberals would lose the seat and:
a) he’d rather it was someone else that lost it and/or
b) he didn’t have the enthusiasm of the fight that would be required to keep it.

About 11-12% of Fletcher’s PV drop last time went tot he IND, with the rest to Labor, so how much of that do people think it now potentially able to return top the Liberal pile, given the right candidate slection?

Before he left I reckon he would have held on now that he’s retiring the Libs could be in trouble.

I knew Labor vs Liberal 2pp was tight in the old North Sydney but seeing the red on the 2pp map (in Bradfield/Bennelong/Warringah) sure gives it more perspective.

Seems like Lane Cove LGA is almost fully red except Longueville, and presumably Riverview/Northwood.

The Labor booths in Neutral Bay/Cremorne would probably be Liberal it wasn’t for Deves as these parts were south of Military Rd and was already in Warringah at 2022. I assume Neutral/Bay Cremorne is naturally Liberal while the rest of North Sydney LGA is now Labor.

Willoughby LGA’s Train Line suburbs are solid Labor, and the Harbourside is still Blue (albeit that Northbridge swing was huge last time!). I am not sure about Willoughby itself (incl. North and East) because someone pointed out the 2pp error in Willoughby North PPVC, while I suspect that Willoughby East Booth skews more right than Willoughby East Suburb because of Middle Cove voters possibly voting there.

I am not willing to do much math rn.

The only Kapterian listed in the White Pages is based in Northbridge, at the southern end of (but inside) the new Bradfield boundaries.

I get the feeling that Nicolette Boele is a tad ‘entitled’. Despite being the representative of a community based organisation – ‘Voices of Bradfield’ – she put herself up as the ‘shadow member’ seemingly the day after the last election. Was she chosen to do this? And in the process has stymied Kylie Tink’s political future.

I also have the feeling that Paul Fletcher does not have the ‘stomach’ for a fight. He probably expected that he would have a seat for life that he wouldn’t have to put much effort into. Got the shock of his life last time and doesn’t have the will for a fight from this point onwards. When I grew up in Bradfield, Jack the Ripper could have run for the Libs, no-one would have batted an eyelid and still voted for him.

This is of course not something that can be well-measured or even well-defined, but I think Bradfield must set some kind of a record for how dramatically its relevance and interest has turned around in one election cycle. No one was talking about Bradfield until the night of 2022 election.

@Leon the Labor primary vote in the North Sydney Neutral Bay booths was about 24% while it was 12-13% in the Warringah Neutral Bay booths. On the state level however all three Neutral Bay booths in North Shore voted Liberal against both the teal (Helen Conway) and Labor.

The biggest difference in the federal and state teal vote in the North Shore part of North Sydney seems to be around Mosman which is quite affluent. This is probably because federally the last candidate was quite right-wing (Katherine Deves) whereas the NSW Liberals are mostly moderates.

Fletcher was likely blindsided last time and surprised by how the seat became marginal as he spent most of his political career thinking he was in a forever-Liberal seat. He seemed quite concerned for his seat I hear. Methinks Gisele Kapterian is the frontrunner as she was preselected for the now-abolished North Sydney.

On the topic of margins, I reckon that the teal margin is a bit inflated down south. Kylea Tink got $1.8m in donations and was one of the highest spenders in 2022 according to the AEC Transparency Register. Her campaign was well-funded, well-run and concerted. If I recall correctly, her primary vote was the lowest out of all the teal winners. This is partly owing to Labor’s strong-ish primary vote but because of preferencing, Tink ended up scraping through.

This is not to say Boele can’t succeed. There are a lot of Tink supporters and volunteers, including from the new Bennelong and Warringah, who are willing to campaign for Boele and resources can be diverted to Bradfield.

I found it really fascinating that Tink did her “hand-over” to Boele, especially given that Boele was distancing herself from Tink when she had her spat about the redistribution. Boele did well to keep her at arms-reach and it will benefit her to keep it that way.

Boele has maintained her campaigning within Bradfield really well and is a genuine chance of winning this seat. For the Liberal Party to retain, they need to get someone in ASAP. They would do well to avoid promoting someone up from the basket-case that is KRG Council

Warren Mundines in the mix here

The Lib preselection will be the size of the Melbourne Cup field.
Dutton may have to intervene in a similar way to Albo in Barton, if a clear front runner does not emerge.
I’d expect the Libs would want a female candidate to negate any perceived advantages of the return independent challenger

@Darth Vader if Mundine gets in somehow then the Liberals can kiss this seat goodbye as it hands them a perfect smear campaign on multiple levels: parachuter, voice opponent (when this was the only Liberal electorate that voted Yes), right wing nutjob, not nominating women etc.

They ABSOLUTELY NEED a female moderate candidate to have any chance. Anything less is a Teal flip.

@tommo im of the same opinion given this electorate voted yes i cant see him helping them out here even though people dont usually vote the same as they do on referendums it wont help them here. hes not actually a parachute as he does live here. it looks like Jaimee Rogers has won preselection for Warringah that Gisele Kapterian has put her hand up here. the other name they might consider would Hollie Hughes be considered here? she is never gonna win on the 4th senate spot so maybe swithing to the lower house

I don’t know but I think the teals needs about 2 5% this is possible. But it is difficult to improve on 2022 vote by a couple of percent

Boele has been disciplined in her campaign for a few years now. She has had a big head start and a real chance. Add to that, I don’t think Dutton and the Liberals (nor Labor) are that popular here at the moment. Also, Tink won’t be running and Bradfield had shifted south into teal territory.

Fletcher said that a woman should get the pick. The Liberals do need the right candidate real soon to have a fighting chance – ideally a moderate local and not some political hack.

@Tommo9 – absolutely. Mundine would be the worst type of candidate for this seat. Being anti-Voice in the only Liberal seat to vote ‘Yes’ would be a massive turn-off. If he’s preselected here, stick a fork in it, it’s done.

The somewhat relieving news is that Gisele Kapterian, who was meant to be the Liberal candidate for North Sydney, is believed to be contesting preselection, and is being backed by the moderates. She would be an excellent candidate and could very much hold.

Make Gisele Kapterian the candidate and she’ll probably win. Otherwise teal gain.

@np agree i hope they do make her the candidate given she was the north sydney candidate and hat is now partially in Bradfield they should just insert her there like tey did Katie Allen in Chisholm

I don’t think Warren Mundine actually put his hand up. He was just touted as a potential challenger. I hear that the moderates want Kapterian.

In all of metro Sydney, Bradfield and Bennelong are the ones to watch. The rest are more or less predictable.

Once upon a time, a Liberal could be parachuted into Bradfield from Mars or Neptune and there would not be an issue. These days, the candidate would have to have good local credentials. Assuming Gisele Kapterian is from Willoughby then she would fit the bill.

i think the teals are gonna go as fast sa they came. atm there is a appetite for them but if labor are elected in minority and they support them i think they will dissapear as fast as they came. also it would be harder for one teal to pass onto another when they retire.

Thommog
Mundine lives in the electorate & is a long term North shore resident. He’s also a legislative Voice yes supporter. Not a parachuter

@Phil – Mundine does in fact live in Bradfield and on the North Shore, but in terms of the Voice to Parliament referendum last year (where Bradfield was the only Liberal seat to vote yes), he was against it, and the ‘parachute’ comes from the fact he contested the seat of Gilmore on the South Coast in 2019, a fair few hours from Bradfield.

James (Ireland)
The Bradfield referendum result doesn’t bind future candidates. What is the margin of error for a tainted ballot?
I took the phrase ‘gets in’ to be in the future tense.
Parachute need be no impediment;
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lionel_Queripel

@james he does have some connection to gilmore as his “people” are from that area. i think the problem with it was scomo wanted him in parliament nad pushed out the candidate the liberals had picked. that ended up costing them the seat. which they likely would have won otherwise in both 2019 and 2022.

Regarding the Voice results, I doubt that it would make many people switch their vote in Bradfield because the Voice isn’t a very pressing election issue. I feel most people have moved on from the referendum.

If Warren Mundine gets preselected, the main issue isn’t so much he is a No campaigner (though he supports constitutional recognition of indigenous peoples). It is his perceived association with Peter Dutton and the ‘establishment’. He would also appear more as a captain’s pick.

This isn’t a safe seat. A better choice would be a local moderate liberal and a political outsider to take the fight up to the teal.

Saw this letter in the SMH today. Obv a different Paul Fletcher but still…

We know the installation of solar-generated electricity is accelerating as we head towards 2030. What will be the financial impact of the Coalition’s nuclear energy plan on the 4 million (or so) domestic homeowners with existing solar generation systems? A nuclear power generation plant has to be operational about 90 per cent of the time. Which I presume means that 90 per cent of the operational time, each nuclear plant must be able to sell all of its electricity to paying consumers. Does the Coalition propose to block our solar-generated electricity exports to the grid during the day and take away the rebates we currently get from our exports to the grid? It appears quite clear the Coalition is proposing that all solar from households will be switched off by the grid operators in each state during the peak solar generation hours during the day. That will affect our solar investments. Paul Fletcher, Berowra
https://www.smh.com.au/national/nsw/folly-of-fission-impossible-exposed-by-the-fiscal-facts-20241215-p5kygj.html