Bradfield – Australia 2025

Here is an unknown
But this seat is situated in a area of declining liberal influence . The north shore of Sydney.
The resignation of the sitting lib Mp and the boundary changes. Maybe shift the vote a couple of % to the teal.

I don’t know if the resignation of the sitting MP necessarily does drag the Liberal vote here, if anything the preselection of a moderate aligned and younger female candidate might help buffer them against the teal vote.

It’s a combo of both

@Sabena,

Sorry I missed your comment on 29 Jan.
I am not sure what that list of data is (I note you gave a reference) but its looks to be movement in the Liberal primary vote, which is a bit moot in a preferential system – most of the data is ancient history. In making my comment I was relying on nothing more than the graph our esteemed blog host provides on each electorate preview. The last 4 results for Bradfield are:

2013: NSW LIB 2PP 54.4 Bradfield LIP 2PP 70.7
2016: NSW LIB 2PP 50.5 Bradfield LIP 2PP 71.0 (change -3.9 vs +0.3)
2019: NSW LIB 2PP 51.8 Bradfield LIP 2PP 66.6 (change +1.3 vs -4.4
2022: NSW LIB 2PP 48.6 Bradfield LIP 2PP 56.2 (change -3.2% vs -10.8%)

So yes, in 2022, they moved in the same direction, but with a 7% differential. In the previous two they moved in the opposite direction, with an average differential of approx 5%.

These area dances to its own beat nowadays

2016 & 2019 mirror a lot of affluent urban seats.

2016 (Turnbull) the Liberals copped a swing against overall, but generally had a positive swing in affluent inner-urban areas. The Liberals even had their best ever 2PP in Melbourne Ports / Macnamara in 2016.

2019 (Morrison) the Liberals had a small positive swing overall, but copped a pretty heavy swing against them in affluent inner-urban areas.

2022 is in line with that broader trend too. The Liberals did cop a beating across the country overall that year, but it was far more pronounced in affluent inner-urban seats than it was in outer suburban & regional areas.

How time changes… less than 10 years ago the endorsed liberal would have won any seat on the north shore except Ryde based. Ones.
Now this part of Sydney is a problem both in terms of elections and the reduction in funding available. This leads to serious competition in such area’s which tend to march to the beat of a different drum.

mick the same can be said for inner city seats for labor who are now not just under threat from the greens but from independents as well

@High Street-you are right to say that the seat is less safe than it used to be.
At this election the generic polls are indicating a swing to the Liberals and it seems unlikely that there will be a swing to Boelle in those circumstances,particularly given the 15% swing against Fletcher on primaries last time.If you do a search of Psephos you will find his site which cover all Australian elections and some overseas ones as well.

Boundary changes +1.8% teal
Less fletcher’s personal vote -1% liberal in
That gives roughly 1.5% liberal margin without any swing 2022 to 2025.
????

Are there really teal-curious Liberal voters who would switch based on Fletcher being swapped out for a moderate-aligned female candidate? If anything I’d have it the other way

@ maxim
I don’t know but he claimed to be a moderate.

Any thoughts on the campaign so far?

Boele mentioned on her socials that over 600 attended her campaign launch last Sunday. I think the sitting teal MPs had similar numbers of volunteers in 2022 but they were in different electorates at a different time.

@mick ive met him before and he seems to a nice guy and im dissapointed to see him go.

@Maxim – would agree. If the libs kept the same do nothing candidate then that would be a good opportunity to try something different. At least with a new lib candidate, liberal voters can tell themselves that this one might be different

@Maxim

I tend to agree with your skepticism about further bleeding from LIB to Teal – I think there is a strong chance the Teal vote has topped out and just because Boele has been active and has a lot more $$ to spend this time does not mean many extra votes. Tink spent 1.8M in North Sydney and barely got 25% primary, so it not like $$ are a guaranteed path to a high primary vote

What I would be interested to hear views on though (there is probably data) is what % of voters are deciding on local candidates and who looking at the Leader and policy? We’ve just had a long discussion above about relativity of state and seat swings over time and the factors at play – these aren’t primary driven by local candidate factors. With Dutton as Leader, I can’t see Kaperterian increasing the Liberal vote much on ’22 when the entire electorate has lost the Liberal MP incumbency factor (two MP’s relevant)

The advantage of a new candidate – i.e. Gisele Kapterian – is that they are invariably younger, hungrier and keen to make a mark. Fletcher would have been complacent last time – she will not be. She just has to hold the line to win.

I think we are seeing a new era where MPs in safe seats can’t be complacent. They will all have to work that much harder. MPs in marginal seats have always known this. It might see more churn too as they might just exhaust themselves.

@Redistrubuted – perhaps we need better quality Senators as more Ministers may come from the Upper chamber, with member of the House generally to focused on holding their seat. Any Party that has someone at the top of their Senate ticket that doesn’t have the stature and ability to be a Senior Minister really should be having a good look at themselves.

@High Street – usually the top skill of the top senate ticket is to convince members of the dominant faction to put them there. Not necessarily ministerial qualities. There seem plenty of plodders and outright terrible senators from the majors

High Street
I think the Libs may have already learned this – the opposition front bench seems to be senate heavy – Nats excepted. Labor does have a problem though, they have some high quality senators such as Penny Wong and Murray Watt but there are some timeservers / time wasters such as Helen Polley who (I don’t know this) do decent constituency work but have nothing to contribute to the national debate. They have too many timeservers and party / union hacks.
PS: I often listen to the senate when cooking dinner and the level of contribution from some Labor senators is at Year 9 or 10 level and obviously written by a staffer who is not much beyond Year 9 or 10.
PPS: You also get the absolutely bizarre from Malcolm Roberts, Gerrard Rennick or Ralph Babet but that is just at a different level altogether.

Redistributed, your last comment about the hard right senators like Malcolm Roberts and Gerard Rennick reminds me of the behaviour from some hardcore Republican Senators in the US such as Tommy Tuberville (Alabama) who frequently pulled stunts in Congress and made controversial remarks to the media. He and others of that background were generally ridiculed by others in the party who were more mainstream.

@YohAn
The converse,however,does not seem to be the case with the Democrats.

Interesting that the UGov MRP has the IND/s on 24% and Labor on near 20% with 10% for the Greens to be distributed before the final exclusion. The Liberal primary is below the 2022 result on the new boundarties, Other Teal seats show similar trends, as UComms polls have shown over the last 12 months (when dropped to friendly media).

The 2CP result is a bit odd though – states 2.3% swing to IND but still a margin 51.9 to 48.1 to LIB. This would mean the staring margin is 4.2%, however this was the result on the old boundaries – the general estimate on the new boundaries is 2.5%, which would mean the result of this poll is actually 50.2%, not almost 52%……

Perhaps a question to UGov is requried..

And off these primaries the 2PP would be expected to be 53/47 – approx 2.8% behind the 2CP, which would line up with 2022 results for close Teal IND & Labor primaries. But the UGov sheet says a 0% 2PP swing – the 2022 2PP result is around 5.5 – 6.5% margin, so there’s more like a 2-3% 2PP swing, not 0%…

@high street they have adjusted the swing based on the 2022 result the do data shows the real swing of 0.6%

The mrp despite its large total sample has only a small individual seat sample size. It predicts a swing by area then tries to” guess ‘ with adjustments for each indiv seat.
It use is only valid in its global figures and WAS NEVER INTENDED TO ESTIMATE THE RESULT IN ANY GIVEN SEAT.
in areas like here where the normal ” classic” result is broken it tells you nothing about the probable result

Also remember it assumes same preferences at last election and doesn’t take into account swing voters

Yes, yes, yes, we all know that Mick – but the point is it HAS polled lots of voters that are demographically similar to Bradfield (or any seat) and this is its seat prediction. They have gone to a lot of trouble to make a very nice user interface so I think we are entitled to discuss it. Based on its polling of similar demographic groups it has the Liberal primary flat lining or softening in most teal and teal like seats – not massive bounce back. And its not eh IND primary that is increasing but the Labor one – that a general trend across numerous seats.

@John, I really don’t know what you mean by saying “doesn’t take into account swing voters”. It appears you always have a ready made theory for why a poll result is less positive for the Liberals than the reality…..

@high street swing voters who voted labor or teal may decide to vote liberal this time. First you need to ask people who they voted for and preferenced last time and who they intends to vote and preference this time. These polls usually assume prefernces to act the same way as last time.

Why that can be assumed in a govt that stays in power or increases its vote when it goes the other way it’s harder to predict and account for

@high Street
They in that case need a good demographer.
How do you classify Greenway or Reid via demographics

@John, how people vote for first preference and how that group of voters for each candidate as a block will allocate their preferences are two separate things. I was told today at UGov have used respondent allocated preferences, rather than last election – even though as Kevin Bonham points out, last election preferences have a better track record. Maybe this election respondent will be better, maybe not – at this stage, we don’t know

And just for the record, swing voters may include voters who voted liberal or teal may decide to vote labor this time. I think you are displaying a bit of bias there to not acknowledge voters can swing in both directions.

BTW – Your initial point that it doesn’t take into account swing voters seems to be a total fabrication…

Of course actual preferences from 2022 will be more accurate. You are taking.a tiny sample (room for error there) then massaging the result to reflect a global figure or individual seat figures( this compound s the error)

There has been a distinct trend for sometime in polling that respondent allocated preferences have been consistently friendlier to the LNP than the 2022 result, backed up by real data from elections since (Fadden by-election and QLD state in particular). It is not a ‘tiny sample’ when considered in context.

Regarding the MRPs in teal seats I find they are likely understating the primary of the LNP and IND generally from what is likely to actually happen in the individual seats. In the recent YouGov one for example Kooyong has Ryan getting 29% of the vote with Hamer on 39%, that’s down from about 40% and 42%, with the excess flowing mostly back to Labor and the Greens – doubt we’ll see that…

I have to agree that you are probably right Maxim, but I think these figures tend to reflect what voters base underlying preferences are. Then the Teal IND’s and their groupies go to work on their “Labor can’t win so its a waste to vote for them/ tactical voting” stick and the Labor and Green primaries drop on election day. I think there is some of that being reflected in these figures, but not all of it.

However if Liberal got 42% in 2022 and a poll has them on 39% now, I don’t think that drop can be dismissed. Its been a consistent feature of seat polls in Teal held seats for a year now

It is almost a mistake that the seat by seat numbers are even published as there are so many holes that can be poked in them. It would better if they kept the headline figure only and possibly a state breakdown.

High Streeet
re; your question to @maxim:-
Former Speaker Watson, of Western Australia, was said by Antony Green to have accumulated a large personal vote. It doesn’t have to be a merely idiotypical vote – As it transferred fairly readily to his approved successor.

https://www.abc.net.au/news/elections/wa/2021/guide/alba

The same dynamic applied to Cathy McGowan, who clearly won on the basis of her personal vote. She was then able to act as accoucheur to Helen Haines’ accession to Hoouse of Reps.

Labor candidate announced today.

Louise McCallum, a local from the Ku-ring-gai area. As local and as “Of the Community” as the Independent is.