Braddon – Australia 2025

I’m not a local here so I would like to know why this electorate bucked the national trend.

@ Bob, I think the 2022 Federal election, was not a classic change election rather a series of by-elections. Scomo alienated 3 key demographics, Chinese Australian voters, WA voters and Small l liberal/Teal voters (including Higgins/Boothby and 3 Brisbane seats). All but one of the seats that changed hands can fall under one of these 3 catergories. The one exception being the seat of Robertson which does not fall under any of the 3 and is a classic bellweather. Tangney was a combination of all 3 key demographics. Other classic swing seats such as Lindsay, Herbert, Longman did not fall the national trend. One more thing, Tasmania was not as affected by the Bushfires and Covid so Scomo’s standing would have been better.

@Nimalan that is the best summation of why there was a change of Government at the 2022 election.

Braddon and Bass are like brothers – they’ve flipped in the same direction since 1998. They helped extend the lives of the Howard Government in 2004 and the Morrison Government in 2019 when they flipped from Labor to Liberal.

2022’s election was a weird one with many seats bucking the national 2PP swing. Braddon, Bass and Longman were marginal Liberal seats but they increased their margins. The Liberals almost flipped Lingiari, Gilmore and Lyons. There were big swings away from Labor in many of their heartland seats in metro Melbourne. 2007’s and 2013’s changes of Government had their share of seats bucking the trend (e.g. Swan in 2007, Greenway in 2013) but there were much fewer.

On the other hand, I would point out there’s many seats that had huge swings to Labor, many with double digit swings. I’d agree that 2022 was basically a series of mini-elections rather than a normal election with consistent swings with the general demographics and geography determining the swing and the direction.

@Votante on TPP Longman had a 0.20% swing against the LNP, but that’s still only a tiny swing against them. Tasmania itself actually had a statewide swing on both primaries and TPP to the Liberals and against Labor. In fact Labor’s primary vote in Tasmania was actually lower than their primary vote in Queensland (only just though). The statewide result in Tasmania was:

House of Representatives:
Primaries:
Liberal: 32.94% (+2.31%)
Labor: 27.26% (–6.35%)
Greens: 12.00% (+1.88%)
JLN: 6.79% (+6.79%)
One Nation: 3.99% (+1.20%)
UAP: 1.84% (–3.01%)
Liberal Democrats: 1.45% (+1.45%)
AJP: 1.36% (+0.88%)
Local: 1.22% (+1.22%)
Independents: 11.50% (–1.84%)

Seats:
Labor: 2 (±0)
Liberal: 2 (±0)
Independent (Andrew Wilkie): 1 (±0)

TPP:
Labor: 54.33% (–1.63%)
Liberal: 45.67% (+1.63%)

Senate:
Votes:
Liberal: 32.02% (+0.56%)
Labor: 27.04% (–3.55%)
Greens: 15.48% (+2.91%)
JLN: 8.64% (–0.28%)
One Nation: 3.88% (+0.43%)
Legalise Cannabis: 3.03% (+1.85%)
Liberal Democrats: 1.91% (+1.23%)
SFF: 1.90% (+0.16%)
UAP: 1.62% (–1.02%)
Local: 1.44% (+1.44%)
AJP: 1.37% (0.09%)
Sustainable Australia: 0.96% (+0.45%)
IMOP: 0.30% (+0.30%)
Federation: 0.17% (+0.17%)
Ungrouped: 0.23% (–1.99%)

Seats:
Liberal: 2 (4; –1)
Labor: 2 (4; ±0)
Greens: 1 (2; ±0)
JLN: 1 (2; +1)

@Nether Portal, you’re right about Longman. There was some 2019-style hype in the media about Labor winning Braddon/Bass as well as Lindsay and others but Labor ended up going backwards.

Labor will be playing the defensive in 2025 especially in Lyons so they may be less inclined to campaign in Braddon.

Labor might have a shot here if it is true that Pearce is trying to have Archer booted from the party. This right winger is making the Liberal party look like a fascist party with his leader every single day.

Archer is actually popular and would easily win as an independent. I really hope Jacqui Lambie seriously considers running here because Tasmania is more of a working-class timber loving state. And if the party keeps shifting to the right they will have no appeal here.

I don’t think Labor would be too fussed about trying to win here or Bass. Tasmania Labor’s resources would be used to defend Lyons. Labor also have got lower hanging fruit in Deakin, Menzies, Sturt and Banks to offset a potential loss in Lyons or Gilmore.

Labor won’t win bass or Brandon and Lyons is as good as gone. Should of happened in 2019

I don’t think Bridget Archer will be booted out. Her margin is very thin and it’s quite rare to do a preselection challenge in a marginal seat unless the sitting member is super unpopular and there’s a ‘saviour’ waiting somewhere. There’s some hope in her defending the seat.

Not sure what happened here in Braddon in 2022. The swing TO the Liberals was pretty big and now the Lib margin is pretty high. There’s no way Labor will target this in 2025.

The liberals are pretty popular in Brandon and Tasmania as a whole due to the shambles of the state party. While I don’t agree with bridget archer on many things she stands up for what she believes a d she holds the seat so why fix it if it ain’t broke

Independent Candidate from 2022 Craig Garland is now the seventh member of Braddon for Tasmania’s House of Assembly. Garland finished fourth in the seat with 49% of his preferences going to JLN, 29% to ALP & 22% to Libs.

Bit of a weird one here – Gavin Pearce has not re-nominated for preselection, and clearly no one saw it coming as no other candidate put their hand up either.

It could be part of his ongoing stoush with Bridget Archer

there is an article here but its paywalled anyone know what it say?

8 % is a relatively large margin. . Unlikely to change
Mp in one election

@mick agreed even with Gavin it wont go labor if you look at the tasmanian election braddon was by far there strongest area. i think Lyons is gonna flip though

Pearce confirmed as retiring at the next election, possible replacements include Giovanna Simpson and Vonette Mead, both of whom unsuccessfully ran as Liberals in Braddon at the last state election.

@Oguh that’s a shocking announcement.

I still think the Liberals will retain this though.

Would Jeremy Rockcliff go federal? He is a Braddon MP after all.

@np i expected it. it will be retrained but obvious loss of personal vote. expect lyons to fall to the libs and bass retained by archer. i would of thought they could do better in franklin but evidently not?

@redistributed hes just won a state election so doubt it. maybe after hes doenas premier

Redistributed, that is a possibility and could happen if Rockliff struggles to hold a minority government together. Alternatively, one of the other Braddon MP’s (Roger Jaensch or Felix Ellis) could run instead.

John, he didn’t ”win the state election”. Nobody won. no majority.

You win by getting a majority of seats, plain and simple. Labor didn’t win NSW 2023 with this same logic which I agree.

@daniel t you win by being in government

J-Rock for Canberra?

Will be interesting to see who the LNP preselect for this electorate now Gavin Pearce isn’t contesting here.

It has been reported that former 2024 State Election candidate and Burnie Deputy Mayor Giovanna Simpson has put her hand up for Liberal preselection. This is per the Preselection Updates Google Sheets.

@James anywhere where those sheets can be found?

@SCart – here is the spreadsheet.
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1boH2Unx9x0Wi_EGTwWYAgJcY8SMrF-SUaXRb5Aav9KE/edit?gid=0#gid=0

PM Anthony Albanese has unveiled Senator Anne Urquhart as the “soon-to-be” Labor candidate to succeed retiring Liberal incumbent Gavin Pearce at the next federal election.

This would create a vacancy to be filled as her seat is not up for re-election.

Liberal hold.

Is Urquhart contesting this seat because she wants to retire and pick up the resettlement allowance on the way out? Either that or a factional deal seem the only explanations. Makes no sense to go out midterm otherwise.

I’m not sure if quitting the senate allows you to qualify for the resettlement allowance. I smell something suspicious as I don’t see Braddon as winnable for Labor.

Section 8.8(b) of the relevant determination reads:
“ defeat at an election (including defeat at an election where he or she has campaigned to be elected to represent a different electoral division or to the other House of the Parliament).”

So yes, as it counted for Christensen going house to senate, so too would senate to house.

It’s one of the most unfair, if not the most unfair, parliamentary perk that us taxpayers pay for. Andrew Laming got disendorsed last term and he got over $105,000 or 6 months of base pay.

“Disruption of involuntary termination”. Imagine getting fired and your boss having to pay out 6 months of your base income.
https://www.aph.gov.au/About_Parliament/Parliamentary_departments/Parliamentary_Library/Research/FlagPost/2022/June/Resettlement_allowance

Agree, it is a big rort and overly generous. Gerrard Rennick probably working on same strategy.

Why assume this is a alp
Rort? Maybe it is a gamble. If it pays off will give Labor an extra seat they had not expected!

Easy way to check..
Revoke the resettlement allowance back dated to
When GC.retired

Given how volatile this electorate is I wouldn’t write Labor off however, Labor running a senator who isn’t up for election might suggest that they aren’t expecting a win here. I would say at the moment Labor are more at risk of losing Lyons especially with recent polling that has them behind there.