LNP 5.5%
Incumbent MP
Henry Pike, since 2022.
Geography
Bowman covers the entire territory of Redland LGA, to the east of Brisbane. The seat covers Stradbroke Island and other islands at the southern end of Moreton Bay as well as suburbs such as Capalaba, Cleveland, Alexandra Hills, Birkdale, Victoria Point and Redland Bay.
History
Bowman was created in 1949 and has been a typical marginal seat, swinging back and forth between Labor and Liberal. The seat was held by the Liberal Party for all but two terms of the 1949-1972 Coalition government. The seat was won by the ALP in 1961 before returning to the Coalition in 1963. Leonard Keogh won the seat for the ALP in 1969, and held on to the seat for the entirety of the Whitlam government. Bowman was a bellwether seat for over two decades from 1972 to 1998.
David Jull won the seat for the Liberals in 1975, and held the seat until 1983, when Keogh won the seat back after contesting it in 1977 and 1980. Jull returned to Parliament in nearby Fadden in 1984 and served briefly as a Minister in the Howard government.
Keogh was challenged for preselection in 1987 by Con Sciacca, who went on to serve as a parliamentary secretary and junior minister from 1990 to 1996, when he lost his seat to Andrea West before winning it back in 1998. Sciacca returned to the Labor frontbench and survived a close race in 2001 when Andrew Laming reduced his margin to 1.4%. In 2004, the Queensland redistribution saw some of Labor’s best parts of Bowman transferred to the new seat of Bonner, and Sciacca ran in Bonner, where he was defeated by the Liberal candidate.
Laming won Bowman in 2004 off a 6% swing, and he held the seat with a comfortable 9.1% margin. In 2007, another redistribution improved the position for the ALP slightly, and an 8.9% swing almost defeated Laming, eventually winning the seat by 64 votes. Even that slim margin was taken away from Laming by the 2010 redistribution, but a 10.4% swing towards the LNP saw Laming win the seat very comfortably. Laming continued to hold the seat until his retirement in 2022.
LNP candidate Henry Pike won the seat in 2022.
- Darcy Brown (Labor)
- Karen Cloherty (Family First)
- Matthew Knight (One Nation)
- Kristie Lockhart (Greens)
- Henry Pike (Liberal National)
- Gary Williamson (Trumpet of Patriots)
Assessment
Bowman is a marginal LNP seat, although Labor hasn’t won the seat since 2001.
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
| Henry Pike | Liberal National | 43,088 | 42.4 | -6.3 |
| Donisha Duff | Labor | 29,694 | 29.2 | +2.6 |
| Ian Mazlin | Greens | 13,241 | 13.0 | +1.0 |
| Walter Todd | One Nation | 7,825 | 7.7 | +0.4 |
| Mary-Jane Stevens | United Australia | 6,601 | 6.5 | +2.9 |
| Phil Johnson | TNL | 1,243 | 1.2 | +1.2 |
| Informal | 3,045 | 2.9 | -0.5 |
2022 two-party-preferred result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
| Henry Pike | Liberal National | 56,447 | 55.5 | -4.7 |
| Donisha Duff | Labor | 45,245 | 44.5 | +4.7 |
Booths have been divided into four areas. Most of the population lies on the mainland, at the western end of the seat. These polling places have been split into west, south and central. The remaining polling places on the islands have been grouped together.
The LNP won a majority of the two-party-preferred vote in three out of four areas, ranging from 50.3% in the west to 55.8% in the centre. Labor 52.8% in the islands. The LNP also won 57.4% of the pre-poll vote, which made up almost half of the turnout.
The Greens came third, with a primary vote ranging from 14% in the south-east to 16.5% in the centre.
| Voter group | GRN prim | LNP 2PP | Total votes | % of votes |
| West | 15.8 | 50.3 | 15,867 | 15.6 |
| Central | 16.5 | 55.8 | 8,022 | 7.9 |
| South-East | 14.0 | 54.8 | 7,678 | 7.6 |
| Islands | 14.1 | 47.2 | 3,987 | 3.9 |
| Pre-poll | 11.5 | 57.4 | 45,482 | 44.7 |
| Other votes | 12.4 | 57.1 | 20,656 | 20.3 |
Election results in Bowman at the 2022 federal election
Toggle between two-party-preferred votes and primary votes for the Liberal National Party, Labor and the Greens.
Labor was unlucky with the close seats in 2007 just a few 100 votes in close seats could have netted at least a couple more seats
@mick if they couldnt win it in the ruddslise they wont win it noe
On state results this would be an LNP seat (and likely would’ve been in 2020 albeit marginally).
It would now be a safe LNP seat though.
*on 2024 results it would be safe
@ Nether Portal
This seat maybe the easiest to calculate on State results. It almost aligns perfectly with state seats and with the LGA. I dont actually even need to list the booths except for one!
State seats
1. All of Capalaba, Oodgeroo and Redlands
2. One booth in Springwood-Mount Cotton which quite disconnected from the rest of the seat and demographically different.
So Just Mount Cotton booth to look at. I expect it will be an LNP seat on state results easily but gap with federal results may not be as big as in the Moreton Bay Region
@Nimalan thanks, will calculate that right away. Given that all three of those are LNP seats then this is an LNP seat on state results.
State level TPP here (2024):
* LNP: 54.8% (+8.1%)
* Labor: 45.2% (–8.1%)
Note: swing is from the last state election.
So the LNP did 0.7% worse on the state level than on the federal level. Why the gap? Well, there was a huge LNP campaign here whereas there wasn’t in Moreton Bay except in Pine Rivers and Pumicestone. This was probably the area worst hit by the spike in crime though since at least the working-class southwestern suburbs already had lots of crime.
@ Nether Portal
Thanks. What i would say is i dont feel most of Redlands is a high crime area. It is a bit disconnected from the rest of Greater Brisbane due to its geography. This area is probably the least diverse capital city electorate. It has a high portion of retirees. It is not a natural Labor area and since the redistribution in 2004 when Bonner was created i highly doubt Bowman will be won again unless it is a huge landslide for Labor. They did not even win it 2007 in the Ruddslide i feel Dickson is more likely to be won someday than the current Bowman. Moreton Bay on the other hand is more of a swing region it is hard for Labor to have a good result without winning some seats there. Part of the problem why Labor’s majority was so small in 2022 was because they failed to win seats there. It was only the Covid induced majority in WA that put them over the top.
@Nimalan I agree but the polls had federal Labor well behind in Queensland by then.
@ NP
I got Oxley ready for you
@Nimalan thanks.
According to The Poll Bludger, this seat contains:
* 100% of Capalaba
* 100% of Oodgeroo
* 100% of Redlands
* 16% of Springwood