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Labor was unlucky with the close seats in 2007 just a few 100 votes in close seats could have netted at least a couple more seats
@mick if they couldnt win it in the ruddslise they wont win it noe
On state results this would be an LNP seat (and likely would’ve been in 2020 albeit marginally).
It would now be a safe LNP seat though.
*on 2024 results it would be safe
@ Nether Portal
This seat maybe the easiest to calculate on State results. It almost aligns perfectly with state seats and with the LGA. I dont actually even need to list the booths except for one!
State seats
1. All of Capalaba, Oodgeroo and Redlands
2. One booth in Springwood-Mount Cotton which quite disconnected from the rest of the seat and demographically different.
So Just Mount Cotton booth to look at. I expect it will be an LNP seat on state results easily but gap with federal results may not be as big as in the Moreton Bay Region
@Nimalan thanks, will calculate that right away. Given that all three of those are LNP seats then this is an LNP seat on state results.
State level TPP here (2024):
* LNP: 54.8% (+8.1%)
* Labor: 45.2% (–8.1%)
Note: swing is from the last state election.
So the LNP did 0.7% worse on the state level than on the federal level. Why the gap? Well, there was a huge LNP campaign here whereas there wasn’t in Moreton Bay except in Pine Rivers and Pumicestone. This was probably the area worst hit by the spike in crime though since at least the working-class southwestern suburbs already had lots of crime.
@ Nether Portal
Thanks. What i would say is i dont feel most of Redlands is a high crime area. It is a bit disconnected from the rest of Greater Brisbane due to its geography. This area is probably the least diverse capital city electorate. It has a high portion of retirees. It is not a natural Labor area and since the redistribution in 2004 when Bonner was created i highly doubt Bowman will be won again unless it is a huge landslide for Labor. They did not even win it 2007 in the Ruddslide i feel Dickson is more likely to be won someday than the current Bowman. Moreton Bay on the other hand is more of a swing region it is hard for Labor to have a good result without winning some seats there. Part of the problem why Labor’s majority was so small in 2022 was because they failed to win seats there. It was only the Covid induced majority in WA that put them over the top.
@Nimalan I agree but the polls had federal Labor well behind in Queensland by then.
@ NP
I got Oxley ready for you
@Nimalan thanks.
According to The Poll Bludger, this seat contains:
* 100% of Capalaba
* 100% of Oodgeroo
* 100% of Redlands
* 16% of Springwood