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@nether portal as with every bellwhetherit will eventually fall. just like lindsay and eden-monaro.
@Nimalan – exactly, if Abbott was the MP for Cook or Hughes after being PM, he would still be the MP to this day.
@ James,
Agree and this my point. I am not trying to be disrespectful to anyone we need to understand that seats vary in demographics so no one needs to get offended. If Peter Khalil was running for the neighboring seat of Maribiyrong then for example the issue of his more right wing foreign policy (Pro AUKUS and Pro-Israel) will not make a difference as it is a less diverse seat and a more centrist seat.
if Abbott was the MP for Cook or Hughes after being PM, he would still be the MP to this day.
Doubtful.
Even if he could be preselected, Tony Abbott’s problem was no one knew what he really stood for, because he couldn’t maintain a position on anything if he was under pressure.
Credit to him since he left Parliament, he’s never taken any cheap shots at the Liberal Party..
@nimalan why didnt he run for it once Shorten retired? then labor could put in a left wing candidate for Wills
@ John
Good question. I have posted in the Maribryrong thread for us to continue the chat there,
@Np labor barely hold this seat. I’m willing to say that I believe the Libs can win all 3 of Robertson, Chisholm and Boothby with returning members.
The first two maybe.
Not this seat.
Labor are simply too strong in SA at the moment, they need to defend Sturt.
i guess we will see at the next election. it will be fought on federal issues like CoL and albos problems that may hurt labor enough for people to want to change the govt
@Darth Vader, Robertson maybe, Chisholm possibly (depends on the redistribution) but Boothby no.
@NP, not saying she isn’t popular, but against a popular incumbent indie, in that neck of the woods, the whole ICAC hearing debacle will hang like a millstone around her neck.
Happy to be wrong though.
@MLV I still think she’d win, her profile is very high. Polling shows that most people in NSW didn’t think Gladys did anything wrong.
@NP the redistribution is final in Chisholm . I also wouldn’t write off Boothby if labor only barely hold the seat now the CoL crisis May help her win it back. Labor is only doing well in SA because the Libs are prolly the worst division in the country. Even the Vic liberals are looking pretty decent by comparison.
Every chance this seat bucks the national trend and either stays mostly stagnant or actually swings to Labor, does Flint have a strong personal following locally?
@Maxim I agree. Labor is doing well in SA, and the sophomore surge will help Miller-Frost. From my view, Flint appears to be from the hard-right of the Liberals, which I don’t think is overly representative of Boothby. That being said, I haven’t been to SA in almost 7 years and I wasn’t politically obsessed when I was there
@Maxim – Reposting my comment from a few months ago.
I don’t have personal criticism for Nicolle Flint, but she will be a lemon in an electorate with growing progressive values. She would be a great candidate for Barker or Grey, but Boothby definitely has a tealish disposition, definitely a small-L Liberal seat.
Adding on, Miller-Frost is active, progressive, and quite popular here. Combine that with a mega-popular state government and Premier, a pretty duddish opposition in the SA Liberals, Dutton probably to be seen negatively here, and Flint possessing out-of-touch views, I predict Labor to hold, with a swing to them, especially in the east (Belair, Blackwood). Flint will not be liked there.
There has been huge change and it all labors way here. This is not the same seat Steele- Hall won.
@Mick but it’s still not good for the Liberals that they won’t be able to pick it back up given this was a seat they held for so long. Christopher Pyne’s old seat of Sturt is now on a knife’s edge and if it’s lost the federal Liberals will be wiped out in Adelaide.
@Nick G would it not be said that Miller-Frost’s sophomore effect might be canceled out by the return of the former MP? She doesn’t benefit from running against an unknown candidate attempting to sell Liberal messaging to the electorate. This suggests the seat would predominantly rely on the federal statewide swing.
im saying labor hold but m not writing off Nicoel Flint