Bonner – Australia 2025

I’m probably overhyping the Greens chances here so it’d be good to hear a dose of reality, but I do think the Greens chances are a bit better than what the raw numbers might suggest.

Firstly, the primary vote numbers here are quite similar to the BCC Lord Mayor contest – roughly 45% Lib, 30% ALP, 15% Green, and the Greens seem to be prepared to give that contest a solid crack. I think what happens in the Lord Mayor race might determine how much effort the Greens put into a seat like this, but if they can manage to get ahead of Labor and reduce Schrinner’s margin in the Lord Mayor race, given the scale and effort required to do something like that, it might indicate potential for a seat like this where pulling off something similar is presumably an easier task given the smaller number of votes that need to be shifted.

In terms of the Green vote here, the Greens seem strongest in the south-eastern end bordering Griffith (e.g. Mt Gravatt) with votes nearly cracking 30% and they’re managing to poll around 20% in the north-eastern part (Wynnum, Manly) which seems promising given the latter areas don’t seem to have typical Green demographics – according to Census, Wynnum/Manly is slightly above the QLD avg in terms of mortgages and slightly below avg for renter numbers – that said, the Greens are still around 10 points away from overtaking Labor in most booths at that end.
The really weak area for both Labor and Greens is the centre – Belmont and Gumdale – probably where Ross Vasta runs up his margins – they seem to be areas with a very low proportion of renters and high proportions of mortgaged homes and houses owned outright, and they’re also around 8 points below the QLD avg for “no religion” and 8 points above avg for those identifying as Catholic, so perhaps more socially conservative than the rest of the electorate.

One final point I’d note is that Labor’s primary vote here has gone backwards at every election since 2010. It last peaked at 48.8% in 2007 and is now sitting at 29.6%.

This is perhaps within striking distance for Labor but will be unlikely. It’s the LNP’s 2nd most marginal seat in QLD. Like Dickson, it’s been mostly marginal LNP (<55% 2PP) going back to the 2000s and Bonner was only lost in 2007 when the Ruddslide happened.

Labor missed their chance in 2016 and 2022 to reverse their declining primary vote and even win this seat. Dutton has improved his appeal and LNP favourability in Queensland, whilst Labor still hasn't recovered much since the 2019 Morrison Miracle. This means that the middle parts of Bonner could hold up for the LNP in 2025. Labor could use this seat to test their Queensland strategy, albeit this is in Greater Brisbane.

Wynnum, Manly and Lota are quite teal suburbs in my view. A teal could win Bonner if they can bring Green and Labor voters to vote tactically and win over small-l liberals or disaffected LNP voters.

Moreton and Lilley had higher Greens primary votes in 2022. I still see Bonner as an ALP vs LNP contest. Moreton will more likely go Green before Bonner does, pending future redistributions. Moreton has polling booths where the Greens polled in the 30s whilst Bonner doesn't.

@votante i highly doubt labor will pickup any seats in qld next election. the qld i going down next year and federal labor arent anywhere near popular enough to win any seats. albo couldnt even pickup seats coming from opposition. he even lost one to the greens

I agree with Votante, this is an LNP seat and will remain one after the next election. Labor haven’t gone anywhere but down here in 15 years, and they can’t win without a serious reversal in their electoral black hole of Gumdale and Belmont. The Greens are coming from a long way back and have better targets in Moreton and Lilley (not to mention ensuring they hold on to their gains from 2022).

For any real change, Bonner would either need a serious shift in demographics, a change in the pattern of development to move Gumdale and Belmont away from acreage land, or for the environment to become the #1 issue in the electorate. I don’t see any of those happening before Vasta decides to call it quits.

I’m pretty sure this is the only seat Labor won in 2007 and not 2022 that had an above average yes vote in the ref (ignoring those lost to independents/greens). Deakin doesn’t count as Labor wouldn’t have won in 2007 or 2010 on current boundaries.

This seat seems to at least be demographically the kind of seat that should be swinging towards the left. Above average amount of people who have a university degree, close to the inner city, relatively socially progressive. All the other parts of Brisbane around it (Lilley, Brisbane, Griffith, Ryan, Bonner, Moreton, Oxley) are all much more pro-ALP compared to 2016. But for some reason, despite similar trends, this area doesn’t want to budge.

This seat was 49.5% on current boundaries in 2004. What is happening here? Is this the rare area federally where gentrification is helping the Libs? Is Ross Vasta just really popular?

Drake, I’m unsure what gentrification you’re referring to. It’s the inner city that’s gentrifying, not the outer suburbs that make up Bonner. The only new development in the area I’m familiar with is a couple of apartment blocks going up in Upper Mount Gravatt, an area that votes Labor on 2PP.

I would say what has happened to make the area Liberal voting is that Gumdale and Belmont remain much like they did 30 years ago, very white, isolated and with big property sizes. The population there and in Wynnum may have aged quite a bit, since Wynnum is full of retirement communities and young people can’t afford to buy the sorts of properties that exist in Gumdale/Belmont.

@drake they also won Leichhardt

@Drake, you might be overstating the “gentrification” of this division. While “gentrification” is a hard metric to quantify, I would argue it would not have seen as much gentrification as other parts of Brisbane LGA. It has two quite disparate halves. Much of the suburbs (by area size) within Bonner are established, acreage, green-belt suburbs that have not seen much demographic change or development in 20 years. The exceptions here of course are the dense corners of the division closest to Griffith University and Garden City. I would also agree with some of the commenters here that this is a considerable Labor target for the next election. Another comment I would add is that Bonner’s boundaries might change considerably in future redistributions. A change to either corner could make an impact to the 2CP. So one to watch in the next couple of elections.

Yeah I’m not super familiar with the area as someone not from Queensland but I was under the impression this area used to be quite working class which explained why it used to be very pro-ALP (for Queensland standards) but has become richer lately. This seat, and before that most of it was in Bowman which still voted Labor in quite bad QLD election results like 2001.

@john yes they won Leichardt, as well as a bunch of other Queensland seat, even Dickson and Herbert if you adjust for redistributions. But none of those places had a higher yes vote than the national average. Using Ben’s estimates for current margins, I get 15 seats voting Labor in 2007 but Lib in 2022, Bonner being the only one with a higher yes vote than the national average. So Bonner does stand out a bit.

@ SEQ Observer
what would you say the demographics of the Coastal suburbs here are? The Redlands LGA coastal suburbs are more liberal leaning while the bayside suburbs in Brisbane LGA north of the river are Labor leaning

@drake adjusting for redistribution doesn’t count those weren’t the boundaries at the time. And they lost them just as easily when Rudd fell

@Nimalam, it might seem unusual if one is using the quite basic arithmetic that coastal/waterfront = affluent and inland = poorer. This basic arithmetic doesn’t quite align very nicely with Brisbane due to the fact that the bayside does not resemble the pristine beaches or coast-line someone not familiar with the area might imagine. In fact the bayside is quite soggy, marshy, mangrovey, low-lying, subject to tidal flooding and plagued by midgies. These points are probably most applicable to the Northern parts of the Bayside – from the airport right up the North Pine River. So for these reasons it has typically been a fairly unappealing place to live. This has meant that the bayside has been a relatively more affordable area for much of its history and remains true today. Especially as far as “coastal” suburbs go. This has meant that the bayside has historically attracted quite poor and working class communities which has given the area a strong Labor leaning base. It is also important to note that sites of heavy industry like the airport, factories, ports, warehouses and depots lie within close proximity to the bayside communities on either sides of the river. These types of industry have typically been favourable to Labor. The most fitting analog is probably Melbourne’s portside coast and Geelong.

Now to the Redlands, it is probably more Coalition leaning because it is has a few pockets which does not share the same amount unappealing qualities that I mentioned in the previous paragraph. It has localities of affluence and established canals ie. Raby Bay. Up on the Northern bayside, there is an exception here too – Redcliffe. Redcliffe is another area with established canal waterfront dwellings.

Another factor that I would that I would highlight as important and relevant to both Redcliffe and Redlands is retirement. Both communities are popular retirement havens. When drilling down to state divisions, Oodgeroo https://pseph.io/queensland-election-2024/profile/oodgeroo and Redcliffe https://pseph.io/queensland-election-2024/profile/redcliffe are 6th and 8th for divisions with the most people Aged 85 & Over in Queensland. Both also feature high proportions of residents over 45. As you would all know, these older voters deliver quite considerable support to the LNP. Manly is probably identified by some other commenters here as transforming into a popular retirement destination akin to Redcliffe and Redlands.

Conversely, the state divisions like Sandgate, Nudgee, Murrumba and Bancroft have demographics that are much younger than Redcliffe and Redlands, and much more diverse (which is mostly just representative of the high proportion of millennials in this area). It stands out for residents Aged 0 – 4 too. This makes it seemingly an area popular with millennial families due to its relative affordability of family homes. There is a notable amount of South Asians – which aligns generally with the current wave of migration to Australia ie. typically South Asian families, seeking to live in large extended families where-ever it is affordable to do so (the outer suburbs). Highlighting again the relative dwelling affordability of the Bayside (especially its north).

For some of the reasons I have listed here, I would rate both Redcliffe and Redlands as likely LNP pick ups at the next State Election. I think there will be a winding back of the elated support Labor received from much older Queenslanders at the previous election. Many older Queenslanders were animated in the last election by Covid-19 and were thankful to the government for their strong protective stance. Whereas at 2024 there will likely be a reversion in divisions with high populations of Queenslanders over 65 back to the LNP. Caloundra, Nicklin, Hervey Bay and Bundaberg all likely pick ups too.

Obviously there is something helping the libs retain this seat. What is it ? Personal vote for sitting mp? Demographic change?Queensland being Queensland?

Labor blew this one big time long term, They should never have lost this one in 2010, it was a surprise when this fell in 2010 but not a surprise at the same time when you factor in the ousting of Rudd and the fact the previous Labor MP here was underwhelming. Gillard did not appeal to this seat.

That 4.5% margin after 2010 should have given Labor at least 2 terms in this seat, and had Rudd not been ousted this is one of the several seats that would have been held in 2010, and they could have held on in 2013 too if they won in 2010 if the events of 2010-2013 didn’t occur.

This is a seat that should have been Labor more often than not but isn’t the case because Labor screwed it up, they will have a chance when Vasta retires or Chalmers is leader but even then, it will be tough.

Same with Forde but that is more LNP leaning traditionally than Bonner.

*after 2007 mb

Interestingly here an independent candidate, Elizabeth Lewis, will be running here in Bonner in 2025. She seems to be a teal, with her website mentioning ‘After watching the rise of the independents in recent elections, all these amazing educated, successful women winning these unwinnable elections,’ She also uses a tinge of teal in her branding.

Curious to see her prospects here with a somewhat tealish-favourable demographic around Wynnum-Manly and probably Mount Gravatt, but up against a strong personal vote from Ross Vasta, and I dare say Labor will also try for Bonner.

Could be a three-way contest perhaps.

@james I doubt she would make the 2cp. Labors vote is quite high and on 2pp terms it’s a marginal seat. Shed need to peel quite a bit off the Labor and greens vote to make the count tbh

with the Craig Moore fiasco playing out, Vasta could potentially lose his seat over his involvement with the Wynnum Community Place which Vasta namedropped two months ago see timecode 3:15 in which Mr. Moore is involved in he returned the favor on his facebook page.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Kt2DaSa-lbs
https://fb.watch/vkmm_OBxmG/

This video doesn’t look good for Vasta on the 3:15 mark If anyone’s been up to date on what’s going on in Lytton?
https://youtu.be/Kt2DaSa-lbs?si=dbeK7XddL91gDAVe

While state Labor would’ve easily won this seat last time this time it would be close on state results. I think Labor would’ve narrowly held on though as they won Lytton and Mansfield but lost Capalaba to the LNP.

@ NP
None of Capalaba is in this seat that is Bowman. This seat is purely in Brisbane council. However, Chatwsorth is in Bonner as is parts of Bulimba in addition to Lytton and Mansfield.

@James the Wynnum-manly area isn’t teal-ish. For the most part, it’s quite middle class, although some parts of Manly (around the marina) are more wealthy. And of course the property price explosion with COVID has meant the whole area has started to gentrify, similar to Sandgate and Redcliffe. Anyways, I don’t think Bonner is teal territory, and I don’t expect the independent to poll well. This will still be a two-party contest, although Labor won’t pick it up until Ross Vasta retires.

I think Bowman would be more suitable for an independent, as that electorate is a lot more environmentally conscious and sensitive about local issues like development. In the 2020 state election, a teal independent polled 21.5% in the overlapping electorate of Oodgeroo. But with Toondah Harbour being vetoed by the Labor government, there would have to be another local issue for a teal campaign to build traction.

@A A – Thank you for clarifying. I’ve been to Wynnum-Manly in 2022 and it did look wealthy/affluent so I presumed that it was kind of teal-leaning. But thank you for the insights. They are most definitely helpful.

I agree with the point that a teal in Bowman could feasibly run. The Oodgeroo example definitely is a good stepping stone.

After that, comfortable LNP hold in Bonner, and a swing to the LNP in Bowman.

@Nimalan yeah I meant to say Chatsworth sorry. Capalaba is in Bowman. Chatsworth is a Liberal seat. I was confused because I was looking at the results in both Bonner and Bowman (both begin with B and are in Brisbane and are right next to each other) and both of them have Liberal seats beginning with C in them.

@AA @James I think a lot of the teal base outside of the typical teal areas is mostly on local issues rather than being similar to the teal areas ideologically as the federal seat of Indi in Victoria voted strongly No in the referendum despite being held by an independent. Similarly, the federal seat of Mayo (which is a small-l-liberal seat) voted No too despite having a pro-Voice MP, Rebekha Sharkie from the otherwise politically irrelevant Centre Alliance (they only contest Mayo nowadays). Therefore I wouldn’t call seats like Bowman in Queensland tealish, nor would I call seats like Indi and Nicholls in Victoria or Cowper in NSW tealish either, as all four of those seats voted strongly against the Voice including in the areas that most strongly voted independent (e.g in Cowper the independent from 2022 is from Coffs Harbour so she did well there, especially in the Coffs CBD, but she didn’t do as well in the more conservative-leaning Port Macquarie and Nambucca Heads and did even worse in Kempsey, the outer suburbs of Port and the rural areas).

However, @AA is right, Lytton (and Wynnum-Manly) aren’t tealish, they traditionally vote Labor. However, in recent years the area has trended away from Labor, with the LNP picking up Wynnum-Manly Ward for the first time in over 70 years after a big swing to the LNP at the 2024 BCC election. While the LNP underperformed in several other Brisbane electorates, Lytton still recorded a +10.4% swing to the LNP on TPP and the Labor TPP is only 52.9%, making it more marginal than even Mansfield which really should’ve been an LNP gain (indeed even Logan is more marginal for Labor than Mansfield is now).

Yes I agree with you @Nether Portal, the teal vote at the 2020 election was due to a local issue (Toondah Harbour), and it’ll take another local issue like that for a serious teal contest in Bowman or its overlapping state electorates. Bowman is an electorate that is socially and economically conservative, but seriously values the environment.

Also Wynnum-Manly is becoming an affluent area, but it’s still mostly middle class. It started gentrifying when property prices rose during COVID and due to inserstate migration. This trend has only continued after COVID, and Wynnum-Manly will become affluent in the next few decades as more wealthier people move into the area. It seems to be a mirror image in Redcliffe and Sandgate.

@AA so do you think Sandgate will trend LNP too?

Demographically, it should be trending towards the LNP. Have a look at the changes in house prices in Sandgate over the past few years – this should only make the area trend towards affluence. But it could end up like Bulimba – an affluent area that votes Labor.

I believe that Jared Cassidy and Annika Wells are very popular too (in part due to troubles with the LNP candidates at both levels of government). If Bisma Asif builds up a personal vote, we might see a minimal swing to the LNP until any of them retire.

@ AA/NP
I would actually say the long term trend in Lilley (overlapping sandgate) is that it is gradually improving for Labor. Prior to 1980 it was generally a Coalition seat and only won by Labor at good elections. Remember in 1974 Whitlam lost Lilley but still had a majority Labor government. That is not possible now. If Labor loses Lilley the Coalition can form government without the Teals. If we compare 2007 and 2022, Labor actually had a better result in 2022 than 2007 despite a worse statewide and national result. I would say the Federal electorate of Perth is another one that shows a trend of becoming better for Labor. Prior to 1983 it was a swing seat and every single member was defeated. All members since then have been Labor and have been able to retire at a time of their choosing and passed on the seat.

Also adjusted to current boundaries The Voice did better in Lilley than the Republic did in 1999 which shows a more progressive trend.

Lilley has gotten better for Labor since the 80s, it’s been a very middle class seat with progressive tinges on the southern end of the electorate. The strong result in 2022 for Annika Wells was also partially due to the LNP candidate being a complete dud.

I’m saying that areas like Sandgate will start to become more affluent and gentrify over the coming years, a trend that started in 2020 as house prices skyrocketed. Whether this translates into an increased LNP vote is yet to be seen.

You all seem to forget that the Lilley boundaries now are very different from what they were in the 70s and 80s. In those days Brisbane crossed the river and Lilley included areas like Ascot and Clayfield. Once Brisbane was all northside then everything had to go north. Todays Lilley combines what were then the Labor voting parts of Lilley and Petrie. The latter then included Chermside as well.

@ Nether Portal
To assist with calculating Bonner based on state results
State seats
1. All of Lytton
2. Parts of Bulimba, Chatsworth, Greenslopes, Mansfield and Toohey
Booths/Suburbs
1. Belmont
2.Gumdale
3. Carina
4. Hemmant
5. Lota
6. Mackenzie
7. Manly
8. Mansfield
9. Mount Gravatt
10. Mount Thompson (Mount Gravatt)
11. Murrarie
12. Rochdale
13. Roles Hill (Manly West)
16. Tingalpa
18. Upper Mount Gravatt
19. Wishart
20. Wondall Heights (Manly)
21. Wynnum

@Nimalan thanks, will calculate now.

@ NP
Let me know which seat you would like me to get ready for you and I will do tonight.

State level TPP here (2024):

* Labor: 53.5%
* LNP: 46.5%

Labor did 6.9% better on the state level in 2024 than on the federal level in 2022. On council results this would be a safe LNP seat.

The general trend seems to be that Labor are doing around 7% better on the state level in Brisbane except in Brisbane and Ryan.

Anyway, of the 14 seats that are predominantly within Brisbane, I’ve calculated the state results for six of them so far: Bonner, Brisbane, Longman, Petrie, Rankin and Ryan. I still need to do Bowman, Dickson, Forde, Griffith, Lilley, Moreton and Oxley. Not to mention the 16 non-Brisbane seats, where I’ve only calculated the results for one of them (Leichhardt, which I need to redo when the TPP in Mulgrave is finalised).

@Nimalan maybe Bowman? I believe that would be an LNP seat on state results.

@ NP
posted on Bowman thread for you it should be pretty easy and will be an LNP seat. Let me know which seat next you would like to look at

Thank you np for working out the state results as transposed to federal seats

According to The Poll Bludger, this seat contains:

* 11% of Bulimba
* 70% of Chatsworth
* 14% of Greenslopes
* 100% of Lytton
* 96% of Mansfield
* 6% of Toohey