LNP 3.4%
Incumbent MP
Ross Vasta, since 2010, previously 2004-2007.
Geography
Eastern suburbs of Brisbane. Bonner covers eastern parts of the City of Brisbane south of the Brisbane River. Main suburbs include Wynnum, Manly, Mount Gravatt and Carindale, as well as the sparsely populated Moreton Island.
History
Bonner was created at the redistribution prior to the 2004 election as a notionally Labor seat, taking in the most pro-Labor parts of Bowman, then held by the ALP.
At the 2004 election, sitting Member for Bowman Con Sciacca ran for Bonner. Sciacca had held Bowman since 1987, except for one term after losing the seat in 1996. A swing to the Liberal Party saw Sciacca defeated by Ross Vasta (LIB) by less than 800 votes.
A 5% swing to the ALP gave the seat to Kerry Rea in 2007. In 2010, Rea was challenged by Vasta, who won the seat back for the Liberal National Party. Vasta has been re-elected at the last three elections.
Assessment
Bonner is a marginal seat.
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
| Ross Vasta | Liberal National | 43,191 | 44.8 | -4.7 |
| Tabatha Young | Labor | 28,491 | 29.6 | -1.5 |
| Bernard Lakey | Greens | 16,144 | 16.8 | +5.1 |
| Amanda Neil | One Nation | 5,371 | 5.6 | +1.6 |
| Serge Diklich | United Australia | 3,177 | 3.3 | +0.8 |
| Informal | 2,467 | 2.5 | -0.4 |
2022 two-party-preferred result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
| Ross Vasta | Liberal National | 51,471 | 53.4 | -4.0 |
| Tabatha Young | Labor | 44,903 | 46.6 | +4.0 |
Booths have been divided into three parts: central, north and south.
The LNP won 54.6% of the two-party-preferred vote in the centre, while Labor polled 50.7% in the south and 52.1% in the north. The LNP won substantial majorities of the pre-poll and other votes.
The Greens came third, with 15.2% of the pre-poll primary vote and a primary vote ranging from 17% in the centre to 21% in the north and south.
| Voter group | GRN prim | LNP 2PP | Total votes | % of votes |
| South | 20.9 | 49.3 | 13,551 | 14.1 |
| Central | 17.0 | 54.6 | 11,971 | 12.4 |
| North | 21.0 | 47.9 | 10,349 | 10.7 |
| Pre-poll | 15.2 | 53.8 | 36,067 | 37.4 |
| Other votes | 14.8 | 56.9 | 24,436 | 25.4 |
Election results in Bonner at the 2022 federal election
Toggle between two-party-preferred votes and primary votes for the Liberal National Party, Labor and the Greens.
Yeah i have this as a dark horse for a flip along with Banks i think the LNP are favourites. I see Sturt, Leichardt falling before this. This seat is pretty close to the median in terms of income etc so it is very much a middle Australia seat. Nether Portal calculated this would be marginal Labor seat on state results. I does have the advanatage of a sitting Liberal MP with a personal vote. Queensland is the state where Labor should ideally make gains for example seats such as Petrie/Forde are bellwethers but also mortgage belt/outer suburban so Dutton will probably do well there.
Speaking of middle, this is also as middle-ring as it gets when it comes to the geography of Greater Brisbane.
I’d question the claim that Vasta has much of a personal vote. Yes, he’s a long term incumbent, but he’s also a fairly low-profile back-bencher. I’d attribute a lot of his electoral success to Queensland being at such a high watermark for LNP post-Rudd. As far as Brisbane divisions go, Bonner has relatively low political engagement.
@SEQ Observer:
Can’t say whether Vasta has a personal vote, though i’d say he might have, if only from Italians and Sicilians [and Roman Catholics?].
However, he definitely has always had an organised ground game in the Seat with volunteers and experienced scrutineers.
Driving round the area there seems to be pretty even candidate sign coverage. Agree Vasta has kept a very low profile over the years despite being in parliament for so long. Kara Cook had a high profile as a city councillor but I think most of her ward was just outside the Bonner boundary.
Whilst sportbest and Ladbrokes don’t give her a chance I think this might be an upset win for Kara.
Sportsbet have betting on ALP suspended for this seat. LNP still listed at 1.13 favourites
I can understand why Labor put in a last-minute candidate. For most of the past year, Labor was more concerned about sandbagging seats and aiming for Leichhardt, Sturt and the three QLD Green seats.
Someone must’ve ploughed a lot of money into Labor on Sportsbet.
The reason i said that Vasta may have a personal vote is it was actually notionally Labor when created in 2004 based on the 2001 election.
Ben did an analysis and Bonner was one the seats that moved rightwards from 2004-2019 so even compared to 2004 Latham election Labor underperformed in 2019 with Shorten
https://www.tallyroom.com.au/47432
@Votante must be a big better following this thread. No co-indidence that it is talked up as a Labor flip on here and then betting is closed 🙂
@Nimalan:
When Con Sciacca lost to Vasta in 2004, he made a comment to the effect that if he had to lose, at least he lost to another Sicilian.
Sciacca was an unsuccessful candidate at the 1977 Qld election for LLew Edwards seat of Ipswich. Ipswich has since elected Andrew Antonelli and Paul Pisasale, both Sicilians, to Council.
Now, Bowman/Bonner are a long way from Ipswich, so my guess is there’s enough of a close knit Sicilian presence there to make a run there worthwhile.
@Jono – all of Morningside Ward (Kara Cook’s old council ward) was outside of Bonner.
@Nimalan, Labor has been doing poorly in QLD post-Rudd especially in 2019 and 2022 where there was a bigger gap between the QLD 2PP and federal 2PP. Most of Kevin 07’s Labor pickups in QLD have shifted to the right. I think the poor Labor showing in Bonner doesn’t have much to do with Ross Vasta.
Labor are now unsuspended here again – now paying $4.70.
In from $5.25 a couple of weeks ago.
@ Votante
Fair point. A major issue in QLD has been the massive decline in support in Regional QLD electorates Herbert, Capricornia, Dawson, Flynn etc in 2019 and there was only a slight recovery in 2025. Bonner is quite different demographically. In any case, if Labor wants a stable majority they will need to win seats in QLD.
A data-point not boding well for Labor here is that postal application rates (across all of Australia) is highest currently in Bonner at 24.6%. Postal-votes application call-to-actions are sent out as a mail-out by incumbent LNP members. In this context, it would have included a pack explaining the achievements of Ross Vasta. Not everyone opts to vote for LNP with these mail-outs of course, but they typically do have a higher rate of LNP TPP than election day votes. It is a deliberate incumbent strategy to secure early-votes early in the campaign. It ensures that the candidate is top-of-mind while the postal vote is being filled out and that the voter is distracted with any other messages or candidates.
*and that the voter is NOT distracted with any other messages or candidates.