Blaxland – Australia 2025

Good article featuring some quotes from Ben Raue about the electorate and Ouf’s chances as an independent:

https://amp.theguardian.com/australia-news/2024/oct/22/i-believe-i-can-win-the-immigrant-hoping-to-upset-labor-in-western-sydney-stronghold

Always found Clare to be unimpressive in my dealings with him, even though he has had every advantage afforded to him. Seems the laziest and least ambitious out of the Western Sydney Right faction: Husic, Burke, Rowland, Clare, Bowen and Charlton. Even Sitou has more go.
The member for Kingsford-Smith not setting the world on fire either and could be susceptible to a strong independent challenger as well.

Within the Cumberland Council, the councillor Steve Christou has made starting a culture war about Indigenous Issues like banning Welcome to Country and flags his priority.

Our may actually be within a shot if he doesn’t show any extreme or controversial views the libs may choose to prefernce him and or run dead so he makes the 2cp. If he makes the 2cp and gets lib preferences he will win.

This is my electorate . I have found Jason to be both intelligent and competent and approachable. MR Ouf only just got elected to Cumberland Council.
Steve Christo used to work for a left wing mp.. he decided he wished to be mayor when he couldn’t manage this within the alp he switched. Good thing is he will not be mayor this term. Of interest with the boundary changes this is close to the boundaries of the old Reid when it was a safe alp seat.

@Mick Quinlivan, why is is the Federal Labor margin low in the Merrylands area (with even one voting booth voting for the Libs)?

What I’m curious about is why there isn’t a big minor party in Australia that is economically left-wing but socially right-wing. I mean there’s the DLP but they don’t even exist outside Victoria anymore as far as I know. They aren’t my views, but you’d think that people (especially CALD people) would hold those views in Australia like they do in Europe.

Parties with economically left-wing but socially right-wing views hold seats in a number of European countries, including Germany, Greece, Ireland, Slovakia and many others.

And formerly in the UK too

@Marh Merrylands is near Parramatta so maybe that’s why?

@np the LDP could fit that description. I believe there are others too

Certainly not the LDP, @John. LDP is right-wing libertarian economics. The closest to home party that economically left-wing but socially right-wing is NZ First in New Zealand

@ Nether Portal
Good Question, it depends on what you mean by socially right wing. In Seats like Blaxland will be socially conservative on religious matters (LGBT, Abortion, Euthansia etc). However, i would not classify many poor CALD voters as being blanket social conservatives on other matters for example indigenous issues, nationalism, Hawkish on China etc. Many residents in Blaxland maybe concerned about LGBT issues taught to young children but will not give a damn if Critical Race Theory is taught in schools. I think once of the first conversations we had was on the Parkes thread was about comparing Blaxland to Maranoa to see which one is more socially conservative. Have a thread through your comments then and others on the link below and that may explain a lot.

Recently i mentioned in the Melbourne 2025 thread if Australia had kept the White Australia Policy, Blaxland would have probably voted YES to SSM and the only seats that would have voted no are Maranoa, Kennedy and Groom.

https://www.tallyroom.com.au/archive/aus2022/parkes2022

The LDP is decidedly not economically left wing. I would say the Anglosphere in general has a lacking niche in this aspect, partially thanks to non-PR voting systems, partially thanks to economics being the bigger priority among culturally conservative voters and partially because many European countries NP brings up are former communist economies where there is a large cohort of culturally conservative older voters who are nostalgic for left-wing economic systems.

NZ First is definitely an interesting exception to the rule in the Anglosphere, and it comes in the sole country with PR.

@ Adda
I think maybe KAP is something that fits that description. However, I dont see KAP appealing to a seat like Rankin where there poor ethnic voters.

@marh sry I read that around the wrong way. I though said socially liberal and economically conservative. I believe JLN fits the bill.as well as KAP.. The centre Alliance possibly too.

@adda if they have of kept the white Australia policy we likely wouldn’t even be voting on that.

@ John
I dont think Centre Alliance is socially conservative at all, they are Protectionist as their base is South Australia. Also do you meant if Australia was a more White country then the Libs would have decided not to hold the SSM postal survey?
Brand, Shortland and Port Adelaide are example of white working class areas that voted strongly for SSM?

@nimalan sry that was another error in reading stuff wrong they are socially liberal. If they hadn’t removed a clearly racist policy why would they introduce an inclusive one. Homosexuality would probably still be illegal. If you examples of this look to the middle east. What country on earth acknowledges homosexuals but not people from different backgrounds.

@ John
Fair point interesting. I was thinking more about the point that views on LGBT matters, Abortion, Euthanasia are driven more by someone’s religious/cultural views than educational attainment/income. It is why seats like Bennelong, Parramatta, Reid, Mitchell, Menzies, Banks, Berowra all either voted No or had below average support for SSM while seats i mentioned that are more white working class had much higher support. In Australia, the level of religiosity is much higher among ethnic communities compared to Anglo Australians. I mentioned in the Kingston thread two days ago that Kingston was the least religious seat in the country while Werriwa is the most religious both are outer suburban but the difference is mainly due to ethnic differences. Also seats like Longman even have a higher % of people without a religion compared to Teal seats like Goldstein, Wentworth .

@Nimalan, interestingly I feel Steve Christou and Peter Dutton talking on nationalistic culture war issues on Indigenous like banning Welcome to Country and flags may resonate better in Anglo heavy No Vote heavy areas rather than a seat like Blaxland where CALD is probably more meh about these topic.

@ Marh
I agree which is why it surprises me that Steve Christou is playing this issue when most people in areas like CALD parts Western Sydney probably dont give a damn about Welcome to Country, flags etc while a culture war about Drag Story time for Children, Pride Flags in Schools, Safe Schools probably resonate due high levels of religiosity a nationalistic culture war suits better in the Hunter seats, Lindsay, Moreton Bay region while LGBT issues probably are not of interest there. I think that is Why Dutton said he does not really care about the LGBT census question and did not really talk about Trans issues which i actually thought he may back when he became Liberal leader.

Another politician that is playing issues that largely non-issue for the area or even the quite opposite is Port Hedland Councilor Adrian McRae who focuses on his pro-Russia/Putin view and even went to Russia to interview of state TV. I overwhelm majority of Australians including the outback would oppose Putin’s Invasion of Ukraine and hence his politics would backfire. It might somewhat work in certain CALD Heavy areas but then again I don’t think even CALD Voters would vote just because of his “Anti-west Foreign Policy” as McRae is a far-right candidate.

yeah i agree Marh it seems weird than an Outback seat you will get an Anti-Western Foreign policy candidate. in Blaxland an Anti-Western Foreign policy may resonate but like you said McRae is far right and foreign policy is just one issue people vote on.

I think a few things that might have contributed to there not being a “big minor party” that’s economically left-wing and socially conservative are:
1. Our historical two-party culture has meant these views have found representation in factions of the major parties, especially the ALP right.
2. The design of most of our electoral systems mean there are only a limited number of seats that are winnable for minor parties, so it’s relatively hard for a minor party to establish and maintain a parliamentary presence in multiple juristictions. Minor parties representing other political positions have managed to win many of those seats.
3. A variety of minor parties and independents have represented this intersection of views over the years, most notably the DLP (I’d say it’s the best example of such a party) and arguably One Nation (although very inconsistently), and those that combine it with parochial interests like the KAP, Brian Harradine, JLN, etc. Hence, those votes have scattered across those various representatives.
4. The parties focused more purely on (religious) social conservatism, like the CDP and Family First, can out-compete more generalist rivals for the small-ish pool of voters motivated enough by social conservatism to vote for a minor party.

@John provided that other countries still legalised LGBT rights, Australia could’ve still legalised it even if the White Australia Policy was still in place, but I can see your thinking.

As for CA they are socially liberal. Another example of a party that is socially liberal but economically conservative would be factions of the Coalition, especially the Liberal Party. The Libertarian Party (and the ACT Party in NZ) is pro-same-sex marriage but still seems to support parental rights in education especially in regards to religion.

As for Dutton I agree he is not a religious conservative and is more of a nationalist conservative. While he is still socially conservative and has backed extending religious freedoms, he probably hasn’t even said any LGBT-related words (“gay”, “lesbian”, “bi”, “trans”, “SSM”, “homosexual”, “transsexual”, “LGBT”, “queer”, etc) on the campaign so far.

None of that is to say that such a party couldn’t become established. Of course, my Point 2 is predicated on Point 1 (i.e. a two-party culture), but if the decline of major party primary votes continues, even single-member electorates wouldn’t necessarily be an impediment.

I agree that it’s an interesting question.

@np rights or marriage? What countries BTW. So your saying a country that still hasn’t given rights to original inhabitants would give rights to lgbt people first?

@John none because all the countries with LGBT rights gave rights to their original inhabitants first.

Re Steve Christo at the moment he stops the alp winning one seat in the Granville ward of Cumberland council. His influence does not extend past that despite his hopes . He will not serve as mayor during the current term of Cumberland council. He is sort of an example of what might happen if some one from Sky news was elected to Cumberland council. He recognised there is a social conservatism in strong Labor areas.. so he has moved to the right on such issues. The higher the levels of govt you reach the greater is the ability to redistribute in a just and fair way
This is recognised by the socially conservative Labor voters…. you need a job and accommodation before you worry about same sex marriage or similar

I always consider the matter of redistribution or potential redistribution is much more important in influencing voting behaviour. FOWLER was an exception to this influenced by an anti
KKK vote and the Collapse of the old Tripodi machine.

@Mick, the problem is that Christou has also moved economically Right Wing as well (explains why he joined the Libertarian Party) which I doubt would resonate in a seat with many low-income CALD Voters. Although I doubt Christou would even be Libertarian given he was well known on banning books.

BREAKING
Israel and Hamas now announce a three phrase ceasefire deal so I wonder how would the Gaza Issue pan out assuming if Trump adhere to it.

Greens will be running Omar Sakr an Arab Australian poet and pro-Palestine activist as their candidate for Blaxland. Could help Ahmed Ouf get into the 2CP, question is how Liberal prefeb

(accidently pressed post comment too soon) question is how Liberal preferences will flow. May be quite favourable if the general mood is to get Labor out of government.

the liberals should absolutely be helping out here. he hasnt shown any controversial views like the guy in Watson and being pro palestine doesnt mean anti israel or wanting the destruction of israel. jason clare is an important member of the labor govt and blaxland has 46% new voters after the redistribution other then rusted on labor voters the rest are up for grabs. the uap and onp voters would likely be prefering labor over the ind but with lib & grn preferences plus any votes they can take from jason clare and labor he could absolutely win this seat the libs only need to unseat clare this time around then switch back to labor next election assuming clare doesnt run again to achieve the goal of unseating senior labor ministers. and if the use the same strategy across the country they could cause labor some serious problems this election

@ john
This is my electorate both before and after the boundary change .Jason Clare will win here.
A liberal strategy of shifting preferences back and forward to create mahem is not sound and will even in the medium term will be ignored by liberal voters
There is now no such thing as a safe seat for any party. The balkanisation of the major party vote ensures this.
Latest opinion polls only 70% combined major party votes.
Single member electorates will always throw up strange results and disadvantage the losing major party.
My suggestions which probably won’t happen in my lifetime, is an adjustment mechanism similar to nz..pr list system
And a test of formality based on identified voter intention.

@mick never say never on top of Ouf if Carbone and Le network put in a condadate as well that wil cause Clare even more problems and likely they will unseat him due to spliting Clare primary vote

Apart from areas round Chester hill
Yagoona and part of Villawood in Bankstown council the bulk of Blaxland is in Cumberland council area.
The le-Cabone axis has no influence.
I am sure Jason will win.

Still they have vowed to contest seats in western Sydney. If they are able to split the vote enough and preference each other against labor along with liberal and the centre right voters they could unseat him

No campaigns are expensive.. it will take all their effort to try and protect Dai le

@mick Dai Le will win Fowler no question. yea they are and labor is gonna be defending not only their marginal seats but their safe ones as well. they wil be spreading their resources pretty thin.

@ john
If this is the case she should come out and say so
So far
We have suggestions Cabonne to possibly stand for McMahon and now their machine supposedly runs a candidate in
Blaxland
I think Dai Le is the only one who will nominate

@mick well for starters the election has yet to be called. they wont tip their hand until they have to.but they have publicly commited to rnning candidates in western sydney seats

There were rumours at the state election that Cab9ne was to stand in Cabramatta then Fairfield. But nothing happened. The dying throws of the Tripodi machine harmed Labor in Fairfield council..the le- Cabone group control that council think they have 10/12. I suspect they will not nominate here or in McMahon despite the noises/promises made.

Dai Le nominated quite late in 2022 no?

From memory, there were rumours in late 2021 and early 2022 of either Carbone or Le running in reaction to Kristina Keneally getting a captain’s pick or parachute into Fowler. This was to capitalise on the angst and protest vote. I think they were egged on and then Dai Le stepped up in March or April when the election was in May 2022. The rest is history.

I doubt Carbone or a Fairfield council-based ally would run here as only a very tiny part of Blaxland is in the council.

@volante
Yes That was the point I was making. One side of Woodville Rd Villawood
Is in Fairfield council area.
For what it is.worth I don’t think Frank Cabone will nominate at all

“We have suggestions Cabonne to possibly stand for McMahon and now their machine supposedly runs a candidate in”
Mick, there might be a “crowded field” in Blaxland and McMahon. There are already somewhat high-profile independents running in both Blaxland and McMahon, albeit of different political persuasions. That’s not to say the DL and FC Network would forgo this seat here.

Jason Clare is not Kristina Keneally. He has been the member for 18 years and is not a parachute. Dai Le’s candidacy arose following the backlash against KK as the captain’s pick. Dai Le was a very well known local figure at the council and community level and from her time running for a state seat. Another thing is that Clare will likely get Liberal preferences ahead of Omar Sakr (Green) and maybe Ahmed Ouf (IND) as well. I think both Sakr and Ouf would split the non-major party vote, maybe even soaking up ex-UAP voters, and likely direct preferences to Jason Clare.

The issue for him this election is that he’s not the incumbent for a large chunk of the electorate. This is perhaps the largest redistribution of his tenure.

Interesting announcement (and very very surprising) but apparently a bunch of the Muslim Votes candidates are likely to preference the Coalition ahead of Labor to heed in on voter anger over Israel-Palestine? Very surprising due to their differing stances but could be lethal next election to Labor.

Article: https://au.news.yahoo.com/unlikely-alliance-spells-danger-labor-163000820.html

The Liberals are Pro-Israel in a lot of ways. Why does the Muslim Votes movement think this is a good idea? Doesn’t this go against everything they stand for?