Blair – Australia 2025

This will be a like lnp gain federally. I think the lnp can do some serious damage to Labor at the state election whether that translates federally remains to be seen. I think the lnp can regain those green seats too

I say it is more complicated as Queensland is known to separate state and federal politics compared to other states such as Victoria or NSW. Afterall, Queensland had a Labor government for most of the time since the end of Joh Bjelke-Petersen era but then votes LNP on TPP (except for 2007) at pretty sizable margins.

Let’s not forget that the ALP retained this in 2010, 2013 (with a swing towards them) and 2019, all very poor years for Labor in Queensland, and at this stage I can’t see 2025 being worse for them than those years. I think this is likely Labor with a small swing against them unless Shayne Neuman retires. Also I am surprised by the strength of the Green vote in the heart of Ipswich, somewhere I would have previously thought very hostile to them. They have started cracking 20% in a number of booths.

Its worth noting a few things, Firstly i’d be careful concluding that Labor is finished in QLD as the state election is 7 months away and there is plenty of time to turn things around (I’m highly sceptical that they will). Secondly, there are numerous example throughout history where Labor/Liberal were wiped out and won’t at a federal/state level and still held seats or government at the other end. Thirdly, when Labor was wiped out in 2012 there was a small swing to Labor in 2013 in this electorate despite Labor not holding all the state seats here. Finally, Labor are at there low tide in QLD I don’t see anymore seats that they could realistically lose.

@spacefish I’d argue they are at high tide, despite being in opposition they managed to take no seats

Following the Ipswich West by-election, I’d say this is a tossup, though we shouldn’t extrapolate state by-election results (which themselves are often outliers and erratic) to a general federal election in a year’s time. As Nimalan mentioned, the eastern parts i.e. Greater Springfield would help Labor in the long-run.

If Shayne Neumann retires, this’ll lean LNP, and Labor must improve their candidate selection given their state by-election debacles.

Some wild cards:
1. The decline of UAP and One Nation. LNP could potentially pull in voters of both parties. There’s likely a growing crop of right-wing parties like Libertarians and Christian parties and single-issue parties like Legalise Cannabis. They might split the right-wing vote.
2. Whether the decline in inflation rates and interest rates would boost Labor’s economic narrative and support in the mortgage belt stretching from Karana Downs and Karalee to Springfield Central.
3. The popularity of the QLD LNP and whether voters voting out state Labor in Oct 2024 would make them return federal Labor to ‘balance out’.

A recent Newspoll quarterly aggregate recorded a Labor 2PP of 47% in QLD, 1.05% BETTER than in 2022. If Labor maintains such a good 2PP performance in QLD until the election, Labor will be in a good position to pick up Leichhardt with the loss of Entsch’s personal vote, and should retain Blair as long as Neumann recontests. It will also have a decent chance to pick up at least one marginal LNP seat in Brisbane, especially Bonner, which is the closest to the Brisbane CBD and has the highest Greens vote among all QLD LNP marginal seats. Dutton’s net satisfaction in QLD was -9% and in terms of being better Prime Minister, he was tied at 41% with Albanese. Dutton certainly does not have extraordinary popularity in QLD as some have suggested.

I was surprised that federal Labor recorded a 2PP of 47% in QLD, which was better than their state counterpart, with a recent QLD state Newspoll put QLD Labor at 46%. I thought QLD state Labor should have recorded a better 2PP than their federal counterpart in QLD, since Labor has governed QLD for all but 5 years since 1989, while federal Labor has only recorded a 2PP majority in QLD at one federal election (2007) since. However, it is also reasonable for a third-term and decade-old state Labor government to be much more unpopular in the eyes of Queenslanders than a first-term federal Labor government. If Crisafulli becomes a popular LNP Premier of Queensland, then QLD LNP can well record much higher 2PP in QLD state polls than their federal counterparts in QLD federal polls.

Neumann to Labor is what Entsch is to the Coalition, a key asset that must be kept alive at all costs.

Agree Ian, especially given that Blair is the demographic that Dutton is targetting, White Working Class residents. Longer term however, i feel this seat will become better for the Labor party with the grow of Greater Springfield.

Which is why Perret is sacrificed in Moreton for a female candidate and Neumann stays.

it makes more sense to have Neumann hang on to defend this seat. I mentioned previously that he held on in 2013 and 2019 when there was a huge backlash against Labor in working-class and regional QLD.

To meet gender quotas, Labor may have to field female candidates in winnable seats like Bonner.

@Votante exactly. Given their incumbents in Queensland are their best assets that they’ve got so far (Perrett, Neumann have been there for ages, Chalmers and Wells are ministers and Dick is the speaker), the ALP should be looking to win back as many winnable seats as they can even if the state on a federally level has turned against Labor since 2019. Leichhardt, Bonner etc are both well-within reach and if they field a popular, high quality female candidate for each they’ll have a win-win situation.

The quotas actually exist in their incumbent seats as well. They have to drop sitting at least one male MP for a female.

I thought that the gender quota was meant for new recruits so that no sitting MP like Graham Perrett, would be pushed aside. Women may have to fill in spots 1 and 2 for their QLD senate ticket.

@votante nit for seats held. So they must field at least 4 female candidates as they hold8 seats. So lilley and their Senate spot make 2 meaning 2malempshave to make way. Given Chalmers is treasurer and dick the speaker.neumannand perrett must make way. But also is said tohave overruled the quota to protectmeumann in order to retain Blair. Meaning theyust know that is neumann is pushed aside tht would lose Blair. Labor will be hoping they can make gains elsewhere in order to balance the quota by getting females elected elsewhere. If they were to loseblair to the lnp. The next election they would still require 2 male mps to be pushed asidewhich would likely mean chisholm would lose his preselction. Though I doubt whoever wins second spot wouldn’t be elected due tothe rebalancong in 2028 meaning after 228 they will have 3 males and 3 females

Labor’s gender quota rules do not protect incumbent MPs, but only one of Neumann and Perrett has to retire in order to meet the quota. All reporting has suggested it’s going to be Perrett.

The media coverage is acting like the number 2 spot on the senate ticket (looking like Kate Jones but possibly Jenny Hill or Mulholland who is Star’r PR head) is being offered to a female to enable Neumann to stay in Blair.

@Babaluma Actually they need to lose two male MPs. Maybe one if Albo puts his foot down and says one of them gets a pass because they have a retirement plan that guarantees a female successor.

So it’s likely to be Neumann and Perrett, or one of them and possibly either Senators Murray Watt or Anthony Chisolm fall on their sword to allow a woman to fill the vacancy. Probably for “health” or “family” reasons and then a 5-year appointment to a trade office overseas shortly after.

It won’t be Chalmers and it won’t be Dick. But it’s a bad look for Jennifer Howard in Ipswich to challenge for Blair and not commit to leaving her state seat. If she wins the preselection she hands a poisoned chalice to her successor who has five months to put a campaign together; if she loses she goes to the next election having handed the LNP a pretty potent campaign issue.

@Votante The temporary rules that allow a relaxation of the quota become permanently fixed in 2025. Could Albo say no? Whatever happens it’s going to create problems.

LNPinsider, Why would it be Mulholland? she got trounced in Petrie in 2019. worst result for Labor on the TPP in a long time (even worse than 1996 and 2004)

The rules say 2 have to go.however albo has already committed to overruling the quota to protect neumann in Blair.

LNPinsider, Why would it be Mulholland? she got trounced in Petrie in 2019. worst result for Labor on the TPP in a long time (even worse than 1996 and 2004)

@Daniel T

Daniel your rationale is kind of lame and selective in dismissing Corinne Mulholland chances. Dave Sharma lost his federal seat of Wentworth and he was given a senate seat. Deborah O’Neill lost her seat of Robertson she was given a senate seat. Santo Santora lost his state seat of Clayfied he was given a federal senate seat. Even Jenny Hill who failed to win Herbert in 2001 for Labor is contesting the senate preselection for Labor. Lets face it Labor have had some bad federal election results in Queensland the last couple of elections. To blame it all on the candidates when the state swing on the pendulum is giving them no help is unfair.

On to Blair the Australian has reported Labor state Ipswich MP Jennifer Howard has withdrawn her preselection challenge against Shayne Neumann in the federal seat of Blair.

Qld like wa generally votrs more to the roght. This balances out the left vote in states like sa and vic

Jennifer Howard has withdrawn her challenge after Albo publicly backed Shayne Neumann, looks like he’ll be on the ballot in 2025.

This is the sort of seat that is at high risk of falling if the LNP is too woke. Ipswich isn’t Inner Brisbane or Sydney.

@Daniel T don’t you mean if the ALP is too woke?

Yes sorry, I meant to say ”If the ALP is too woke, it will fall”

Suspending senator Payman is something, but not enough. But if they kept her and defended her. Labor would lose this seat and do really poorly in QLD because One Nation would weaponize it, do well. and they would flow preferences back to the LNP.

I think all this Palestine protest stuff will actually help Malcolm Roberts HOLD his senate seat next year. One Nation has the perfect storm right now. (especially if the protests and war are still on by mid-next year)

I’m thinking Neumann may just hold this seat given past voting trends and the fact people will have taken out their anger on the state govt. But I’d expect it to be lost in 2028. But it will depend on if qld gains an addition seay

@mark yore they can’t force watt or Chisholm to retire mid term. Albo has overruled the quota for Neumann to try and save the seat as it would likely fall wiout his personal vote/retaliation for forcing out. Perfect has been forced to retire. I doubt the old health and family reason would if they soon get a 5 year overseas job because that’s more demanding then being a local member.

@daniel t I think Malcolm Roberts will hold his senate seat as the difference between the right getting a 4th seat is only about 55k votes more then 2022. And g9ven the impending state result that should be achievable at a federal level

Based on the deficits in Bonner Moreton and Oxley and the fact Griffith is at quota and will likely be left alone and that rankin will expand into forde to maintain the brisbane/Logan boundary that pushes Oxley into ipswich/Blair to the tune of about 22% and given Blair is only 12% over quota I’m assuming Blair then needs to gain some excess from either wrigh t or the excesses in Fairfax longman etc. So on that note Blair is an obvious lib gain in 2028 if it doesn’t fall in 2025 which will depend on how badly they want to punish albo. State results will likely make it a lnp seat but how badly state results bleed into federal politics we will see