Blair – Australia 2025

This will be a like lnp gain federally. I think the lnp can do some serious damage to Labor at the state election whether that translates federally remains to be seen. I think the lnp can regain those green seats too

I say it is more complicated as Queensland is known to separate state and federal politics compared to other states such as Victoria or NSW. Afterall, Queensland had a Labor government for most of the time since the end of Joh Bjelke-Petersen era but then votes LNP on TPP (except for 2007) at pretty sizable margins.

Let’s not forget that the ALP retained this in 2010, 2013 (with a swing towards them) and 2019, all very poor years for Labor in Queensland, and at this stage I can’t see 2025 being worse for them than those years. I think this is likely Labor with a small swing against them unless Shayne Neuman retires. Also I am surprised by the strength of the Green vote in the heart of Ipswich, somewhere I would have previously thought very hostile to them. They have started cracking 20% in a number of booths.

Its worth noting a few things, Firstly i’d be careful concluding that Labor is finished in QLD as the state election is 7 months away and there is plenty of time to turn things around (I’m highly sceptical that they will). Secondly, there are numerous example throughout history where Labor/Liberal were wiped out and won’t at a federal/state level and still held seats or government at the other end. Thirdly, when Labor was wiped out in 2012 there was a small swing to Labor in 2013 in this electorate despite Labor not holding all the state seats here. Finally, Labor are at there low tide in QLD I don’t see anymore seats that they could realistically lose.

@spacefish I’d argue they are at high tide, despite being in opposition they managed to take no seats

Following the Ipswich West by-election, I’d say this is a tossup, though we shouldn’t extrapolate state by-election results (which themselves are often outliers and erratic) to a general federal election in a year’s time. As Nimalan mentioned, the eastern parts i.e. Greater Springfield would help Labor in the long-run.

If Shayne Neumann retires, this’ll lean LNP, and Labor must improve their candidate selection given their state by-election debacles.

Some wild cards:
1. The decline of UAP and One Nation. LNP could potentially pull in voters of both parties. There’s likely a growing crop of right-wing parties like Libertarians and Christian parties and single-issue parties like Legalise Cannabis. They might split the right-wing vote.
2. Whether the decline in inflation rates and interest rates would boost Labor’s economic narrative and support in the mortgage belt stretching from Karana Downs and Karalee to Springfield Central.
3. The popularity of the QLD LNP and whether voters voting out state Labor in Oct 2024 would make them return federal Labor to ‘balance out’.

A recent Newspoll quarterly aggregate recorded a Labor 2PP of 47% in QLD, 1.05% BETTER than in 2022. If Labor maintains such a good 2PP performance in QLD until the election, Labor will be in a good position to pick up Leichhardt with the loss of Entsch’s personal vote, and should retain Blair as long as Neumann recontests. It will also have a decent chance to pick up at least one marginal LNP seat in Brisbane, especially Bonner, which is the closest to the Brisbane CBD and has the highest Greens vote among all QLD LNP marginal seats. Dutton’s net satisfaction in QLD was -9% and in terms of being better Prime Minister, he was tied at 41% with Albanese. Dutton certainly does not have extraordinary popularity in QLD as some have suggested.

I was surprised that federal Labor recorded a 2PP of 47% in QLD, which was better than their state counterpart, with a recent QLD state Newspoll put QLD Labor at 46%. I thought QLD state Labor should have recorded a better 2PP than their federal counterpart in QLD, since Labor has governed QLD for all but 5 years since 1989, while federal Labor has only recorded a 2PP majority in QLD at one federal election (2007) since. However, it is also reasonable for a third-term and decade-old state Labor government to be much more unpopular in the eyes of Queenslanders than a first-term federal Labor government. If Crisafulli becomes a popular LNP Premier of Queensland, then QLD LNP can well record much higher 2PP in QLD state polls than their federal counterparts in QLD federal polls.

Neumann to Labor is what Entsch is to the Coalition, a key asset that must be kept alive at all costs.

Agree Ian, especially given that Blair is the demographic that Dutton is targetting, White Working Class residents. Longer term however, i feel this seat will become better for the Labor party with the grow of Greater Springfield.

Which is why Perret is sacrificed in Moreton for a female candidate and Neumann stays.

it makes more sense to have Neumann hang on to defend this seat. I mentioned previously that he held on in 2013 and 2019 when there was a huge backlash against Labor in working-class and regional QLD.

To meet gender quotas, Labor may have to field female candidates in winnable seats like Bonner.

@Votante exactly. Given their incumbents in Queensland are their best assets that they’ve got so far (Perrett, Neumann have been there for ages, Chalmers and Wells are ministers and Dick is the speaker), the ALP should be looking to win back as many winnable seats as they can even if the state on a federally level has turned against Labor since 2019. Leichhardt, Bonner etc are both well-within reach and if they field a popular, high quality female candidate for each they’ll have a win-win situation.

The quotas actually exist in their incumbent seats as well. They have to drop sitting at least one male MP for a female.

I thought that the gender quota was meant for new recruits so that no sitting MP like Graham Perrett, would be pushed aside. Women may have to fill in spots 1 and 2 for their QLD senate ticket.

@votante nit for seats held. So they must field at least 4 female candidates as they hold8 seats. So lilley and their Senate spot make 2 meaning 2malempshave to make way. Given Chalmers is treasurer and dick the speaker.neumannand perrett must make way. But also is said tohave overruled the quota to protectmeumann in order to retain Blair. Meaning theyust know that is neumann is pushed aside tht would lose Blair. Labor will be hoping they can make gains elsewhere in order to balance the quota by getting females elected elsewhere. If they were to loseblair to the lnp. The next election they would still require 2 male mps to be pushed asidewhich would likely mean chisholm would lose his preselction. Though I doubt whoever wins second spot wouldn’t be elected due tothe rebalancong in 2028 meaning after 228 they will have 3 males and 3 females

Labor’s gender quota rules do not protect incumbent MPs, but only one of Neumann and Perrett has to retire in order to meet the quota. All reporting has suggested it’s going to be Perrett.

The media coverage is acting like the number 2 spot on the senate ticket (looking like Kate Jones but possibly Jenny Hill or Mulholland who is Star’r PR head) is being offered to a female to enable Neumann to stay in Blair.

@Babaluma Actually they need to lose two male MPs. Maybe one if Albo puts his foot down and says one of them gets a pass because they have a retirement plan that guarantees a female successor.

So it’s likely to be Neumann and Perrett, or one of them and possibly either Senators Murray Watt or Anthony Chisolm fall on their sword to allow a woman to fill the vacancy. Probably for “health” or “family” reasons and then a 5-year appointment to a trade office overseas shortly after.

It won’t be Chalmers and it won’t be Dick. But it’s a bad look for Jennifer Howard in Ipswich to challenge for Blair and not commit to leaving her state seat. If she wins the preselection she hands a poisoned chalice to her successor who has five months to put a campaign together; if she loses she goes to the next election having handed the LNP a pretty potent campaign issue.

@Votante The temporary rules that allow a relaxation of the quota become permanently fixed in 2025. Could Albo say no? Whatever happens it’s going to create problems.

LNPinsider, Why would it be Mulholland? she got trounced in Petrie in 2019. worst result for Labor on the TPP in a long time (even worse than 1996 and 2004)

The rules say 2 have to go.however albo has already committed to overruling the quota to protect neumann in Blair.

LNPinsider, Why would it be Mulholland? she got trounced in Petrie in 2019. worst result for Labor on the TPP in a long time (even worse than 1996 and 2004)

@Daniel T

Daniel your rationale is kind of lame and selective in dismissing Corinne Mulholland chances. Dave Sharma lost his federal seat of Wentworth and he was given a senate seat. Deborah O’Neill lost her seat of Robertson she was given a senate seat. Santo Santora lost his state seat of Clayfied he was given a federal senate seat. Even Jenny Hill who failed to win Herbert in 2001 for Labor is contesting the senate preselection for Labor. Lets face it Labor have had some bad federal election results in Queensland the last couple of elections. To blame it all on the candidates when the state swing on the pendulum is giving them no help is unfair.

On to Blair the Australian has reported Labor state Ipswich MP Jennifer Howard has withdrawn her preselection challenge against Shayne Neumann in the federal seat of Blair.

Qld like wa generally votrs more to the roght. This balances out the left vote in states like sa and vic

Jennifer Howard has withdrawn her challenge after Albo publicly backed Shayne Neumann, looks like he’ll be on the ballot in 2025.

This is the sort of seat that is at high risk of falling if the LNP is too woke. Ipswich isn’t Inner Brisbane or Sydney.

@Daniel T don’t you mean if the ALP is too woke?

Yes sorry, I meant to say ”If the ALP is too woke, it will fall”

Suspending senator Payman is something, but not enough. But if they kept her and defended her. Labor would lose this seat and do really poorly in QLD because One Nation would weaponize it, do well. and they would flow preferences back to the LNP.

I think all this Palestine protest stuff will actually help Malcolm Roberts HOLD his senate seat next year. One Nation has the perfect storm right now. (especially if the protests and war are still on by mid-next year)

I’m thinking Neumann may just hold this seat given past voting trends and the fact people will have taken out their anger on the state govt. But I’d expect it to be lost in 2028. But it will depend on if qld gains an addition seay

@mark yore they can’t force watt or Chisholm to retire mid term. Albo has overruled the quota for Neumann to try and save the seat as it would likely fall wiout his personal vote/retaliation for forcing out. Perfect has been forced to retire. I doubt the old health and family reason would if they soon get a 5 year overseas job because that’s more demanding then being a local member.

@daniel t I think Malcolm Roberts will hold his senate seat as the difference between the right getting a 4th seat is only about 55k votes more then 2022. And g9ven the impending state result that should be achievable at a federal level

Based on the deficits in Bonner Moreton and Oxley and the fact Griffith is at quota and will likely be left alone and that rankin will expand into forde to maintain the brisbane/Logan boundary that pushes Oxley into ipswich/Blair to the tune of about 22% and given Blair is only 12% over quota I’m assuming Blair then needs to gain some excess from either wrigh t or the excesses in Fairfax longman etc. So on that note Blair is an obvious lib gain in 2028 if it doesn’t fall in 2025 which will depend on how badly they want to punish albo. State results will likely make it a lnp seat but how badly state results bleed into federal politics we will see

@ NP
to assist with calculating Blair. This seat has a lot of areas represented by the LNP at a state level but they are much lower population density than what is represented by Labor
State seats
1. All of Ipswich and Ipswich West Labor (Both Labor)
2. Parts of Bundamba (ALP), Lockyer (LNP) Moggill (LNP), Nanango (LNP), Scenic Rim (LNP) and Jordan (ALP)

Booths/Suburbs
1. Brassall
2. Budamba
3. Churchill
4. Collingwood Park
5. Cooominya
6. Deebing Heights
7. Esk
8. Fernvale
9. Flinders View
10. Glamorgan Vale
11. Grandchester
12. Haigslea
13. Ipswich
14. Karalee
15. Karana Downs (only booth in Moggill)
16. Kilcoy
17. Leichardt
18. Lowood
19 Marburg
20. Minden
21. Moore
22. Mount Kilcoy
23. Mount Tarampa
24. Newtown- Ipswich
25. North booval
26 One Mile
27. Pine Mountain
28 Raceview
29. Raceview West
30. Raymonds Hill
31.Redbank Plains
32. Rosewood
33. Sadliers Cross
34. Silkstone
35. Springfield Central
36. Springfield Lakes
37. Tarampa
38. Tivoli
39. Toogoolawah
40. Walloon
41. Willowbank
42. Yamato

@Nimalan thanks, will calculate now. This one will be harder to calculate.

What of the prepoll and postal?

@ MQ that is a good point if we include too much pre-poll and postal from Nanango it will overestimate the LNP especially since the LNP voting areas are very low density,

State level TPP here (2024):

* Labor: 55.2%
* LNP: 44.8%

Identical to the federal results when rounded to one decimal place, but when rounded to two decimal places Labor is at 55.21% and the LNP are at 44.79%, so Labor actually did 0.02% worse on the state level than on the federal level.

Why Labor did worse is anyone’s guess as the margin is extremely small, but I’d say it was crime that caused this. The LNP also overperformed in the rural areas (while they always do well in the rural parts of Blair and usually do poor in Ipswich, there is a noticeable difference, e.g in Grandchester the LNP’s TPP was 73.0% on the state level and 64.3% on the federal level, while in Esk the LNP’s TPP was 66.3% on the state level and 54.6% on the state level).

What we can see from this though is that the state results are starting to match the federal results and that the LNP are making serious inroads into Ipswich (especially the outer suburbs like Marburg) on both the federal and state level, not to mention that Ipswich elected an independent LNP Mayor in 2020.

@Mick Quinlivan what I do for prepolls is I include EVCs that are in towns that are part of the electorate but not ones outside it. As for postals we can’t tell where they’re from so they only get included when they are part of whole electorates (e.g Ipswich and Ipswich West in Blair or Redcliffe in Petrie).

This means that the LNP vote is actually underestimated in most seats (same goes for my federal and BCC calculations of state electorates in Brisbane). My calculation of Bowman on federal results would have to be by far the most accurate as only one booth is not in one of the three state seats that make up Bowman (there’s a booth in Springwood that’s in Bowman but other than that all of Capalaba, Oodgeroo and Redlands are in Bowman).

@ NP
Sometimes discrepancies can be explained by different campaign decisions. For example, Labor will campaign at a Federal level in Somerset region but not at a State Level. Also the LNP will not campaign in Ipswich Central at a state level but will at a Federal level. Blair is the old Oxley and Fun Fact Silkstone is where Pauline Hanson Fish Chips shop was and is still around although ownership has changed.

@Nimalan in the future I think the LNP may need to campaign in Ipswich Central and Logan Central. Ipswich West is a marginal seat now and Ipswich itself is only fairly safe for Labor, and the LNP may want to target that area as part of their Greater Brisbane strategy.

Personally I think it would be better to focus on bringing down Labor’s margins in ethnic seats like Stretton and Toohey as well as flipping Mansfield while sandbagging their other seats. A redistribution is due before the next state election so this could make things better or worse for the LNP depending on where the specific seat in question is located. If Aspley expands it will become safer for Labor as it’s surrounded by Labor seats but if it shrinks then depending on which areas stay and which ones go it could flip to the LNP given the tiny margin.

@ NP
Stretton is not very well off so i think unless it a thumping win it is hard so while it is ethnic it tends to be much less well off than Mansfield or Mount Omaneny. I think Ipswich is more likely than Logan Central (woodridge electorate) which way too poor. Ipswich township while blue collar is somewhat like a country town it has more asset owners and self-employed people which is why ONP appeals there while Woodridge/Waterford maybe among the poorest places not just in Greater Brisbane but also in Urban Australian. Spanian vististed area. Toohey is possible but i think Mansfield and Mount Omananey will be won by LNP before Toohey.

Some say the future of the Liberal Party is in ethnic voters [Tony Barry], perhaps so, but it’s not paying dividends yet.
Dutton is betting on the Peasants, a canny move which Labor has no answer to.

@Nimalan agreed, and also if Spanian visits an area that basically defines it as “The Hood”.

@ NP
I dont feel Ipswich would meet the “The Hood” threshold so better for LNP. One Nation voters are not from such areas.

@Nimalan true, hence why Ipswich Central is an area the LNP can campaign in.

@ NP
Also i will get Forde ready for you tommorow afternoon

@Nimalan thanks.

if its 55-45 on state results id expect that to be somewhere albot closer to 50-50 federally

As Long as most of Ipswich is in.this seat Labor is likely to retain in
Most circumstances short of an absolute disaster.. worse than 1975

@Mick it will flip in 2028 if it doesn’t fall in 2025. The redistribution will move a big chunk of Ipswich into Oxley and Neumann will be forced out by the gender quota if labor can’t make any gains with female mps at the next election.

@Darth Vader no, Graham Perrett is retiring for the gender quotas so it won’t matter unless Labor gains Brisbane (which I think they will but I think their candidate there is female).

According to The Poll Bludger, this seat contains:

* 50% of Bundamba
* 100% of Ipswich
* 100% of Ipswich West
* 9% of Jordan
* 23% of Lockyer
* 26% of Nanango
* A small part of Moggill (Karana Downs, Kholo and Mount Crosby)
* 7% of Scenic Rim