Blair – Australia 2025

@nether portal Labor currently have 2 women in a caucus with 8 qld mps. Therefore 2 mps needed to go. Neumann was protected by albo from the quotas in order to hold the seat. Even if the new member for Moreton is a woman Labor will only have 3 out of 8 assuming no other seats are won. Therefore in 2028 another man will need to vacate. Even if they gain Brisbane 4 out of 9 is still not 50%.

And the the qld will move a heap of Ipswich into Blair which would then take in parts of Fisher or longman making Blair likely notionally linp

Sry that should readin the redistribution will move a heap ofipswich out of blair into oxley

I’m moving this to a Toss-up the left right split is 53-47 so if they can get some recovery and preferncr discipline they could win this

LNP is running Carl Mutzelburg, reports had been LNP wanted to run former Senator Joanna Lindgren.
https://online.lnp.org.au/carlmutzelburg
Not a bad idea to run someone with German ancestry here, the Ipswich hinterland was heavily settled by Germans, they’re still there, likely one reason Neumann wasn’t forced to stand down for a female candidate.

I’d be surprised if his German ancestry was 1% of 1% of the decision-making matrix behind his ancestry.

*behind his selection as a candidate, I should say. For both candidates.

1% of 1% is stretching it, Real Talk. I know the area a little, here’s the list of the MLAs for Ipswich West, which iis in Blair:https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Electoral_district_of_Ipswich_West
Of those Paff [Pfaff] is a German name, Wendt is a Prussian name [the Wends lived there, Zanow [Zahnow] is also an Eastern German name, as is Neumann.
The old State electorate of Somerset is also part of Blair, was represented by Bill Gunn, his wife’s surname was Geissman and Harold Richter before that. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Electoral_district_of_Somerset#:~:text=Somerset%20was%20an%20electoral%20district,Queensland%20from%201950%20to%201992.&text=
Boonah is also a German area, so i’d say picking a German to run against another German in a German area wasn’t a coincidence.

I don’t think having German ancestry or a German surname were factors in preselection. They are probably more of a coincidence.

Ipswich and Lockyer Valley became home for many German migrants in the 19th century. A lot of the settlements had German names but became anglicised due to anti-German sentiments during WWI.

Gympie the sole reason for protecting Neumann was because Labor would likely lose this seat without him. In any case should Labor hold this this time the redistribution will make it notionally liberal and he won’t hold it next time. And I don’t think he will be protected from gender quotas unless Labor is able to make some gains

Yeah I agree with @Real Talk and @Votante, these candidates having German ancestry is a complete coincidence. And I seriously doubt it anything to sway voters in Blair.

And yeah Shayne Neumann’s ancestry has absolutely nothing to do with him being preselected again. It was a captain’s call from Albo, because Labor will need his personal vote to retain the seat in unfavourable political conditions.

There is a large German community in Blair I should note. 8.3% of the seat’s residents are of German ancestry (making it the fifth most common ancestry after English, Australian, Scottish and Irish).

However, it’s also worth noting that German is not in the top six most spoken languages in this seat (English, Samoan, Punjabi, Malayalam, Tagalog and Hindi), nor is Germany or Austria not in the top six countries of birth in this seat (Australia, New Zealand, England, India, the Philippines and Samoa).

This whole German thing is without doubt the biggest irrelevant rabbit hole that has ever been seen on the Tallyroom.

Lets get back to the core issue – is Shane Neumann in trouble or not?

I’m pretty redistribution would make the seat solely within Ipswich

Darth Vader February 28, 2025 at 9:23 pm
*Gympie the sole reason for protecting Neumann was because Labor would likely lose this seat without him.*
Sure, and why would that be? Because there are many voters of German heritage throughout in the seat?
Otherwise, where does his personal vote come from?
If it’s just Labor Superfans, why not retire him for a quota pick and keep Perrett in Moreton?

Caleb the deficit in qld is on the south side of the brisbane river meaning it will lose parts of Ipswich. If it were to gain a seat then it would be more within Ipswich as the new seat would be on the north side where the surplus is

Because it’s his personal vote that’s likely gonna hold the seat is on a much smaller margin then moreton.

@redistributed I’m saying he is this seat will be close. If he retains it’s only his personal vote that has saved him. He will likely lose it in 2028 to either gender quotas or redistribution.

DV Ipswich City has 155,000+ voters last i checked

Half of which are in Oxley all the divisions east of Ipswich bar Griffith which is at quota areunder quota by a total about .2 of a quota (Oxley, Bonner and moreton)

Some are in Wright also