LIB 0.1%
Incumbent MP
Jerome Laxale (Labor), since 2022.
Geography
Bennelong covers western parts of the north shore of Sydney. The seat covers the entirety of the Ryde, Lane Cove and Hunter’s Hill council areas, along with small parts of the Willoughby and Parramatta council areas. Main suburbs in the seat are Ryde, Eastwood, Gladesville, Hunters Hill and Lane Cove.
Redistribution
Bennelong shifted east, gaining the Lane Cove and Hunter’s Hill council areas from the abolished seat of North Sydney, along with a small part of the Willoughby council area. To compensate, Bennelong lost most of the suburbs within the City of Parramatta, namely Ermington and Epping. These changes flipped the seat’s margin from 1.0% for Labor to 0.1% for Liberal. With the uncertainty in estimating vote for each part of an electorate, it is not possible to be certain as to whether this is a notional Labor or Liberal seat, but my estimate came out as Liberal 0.1%.
History
Bennelong was created in 1949, and was held by only two MPs between then and the 2007 federal election. Bennelong originally covered Ryde, Hunters Hill and Lane Cove, but not areas such as Eastwood and Epping that were later added to the seat.
Bennelong was first won by John Cramer (LIB) in 1949. Cramer served as Minister for the Army under Robert Menzies from 1956 to 1963. During his time holding Bennelong the seat was never a very safe seat, and in 1961 Cramer only held on by 1832 votes. His largest margin was 15.4% in 1966.
Cramer retired at the 1974 election and was succeeded by John Howard (LIB). Howard went on to serve as a minister under Malcolm Fraser, including as Treasurer from 1977 to 1983. He then served in a variety of roles on the opposition frontbench after 1983, including as two stints as Opposition Leader (1985-1989, 1995-1996). He was elected as Prime Minister in 1996 and served until 2007.
The seat of Bennelong had gradually shifted to the north-west over the decades, taking in Epping. The 1992 redistribution saw the last parts of Lane Cove removed from the seat, and Howard’s margin was cut in 1993. After recovering in 1996 to a margin over 10% it gradually declined to a 4.3% margin in 2004, when the Greens ran high-profile former intelligence officer Andrew Wilkie against Howard.
The 2006 redistribution saw Howard’s margin cut slightly and the ALP decided to target the seat, running former journalist Maxine McKew. McKew won the seat with 51.4% of the two-party vote.
In 2010, McKew was defeated by former tennis champion John Alexander. Alexander was re-elected in 2013 and 2016.
John Alexander was found to be a British dual citizen in 2017, and resigned from his seat to recontest without any citizenship concerns. He was re-elected at that by-election, despite a swing to Labor. Alexander was re-elected in 2019 and retired in 2022.
Bennelong was narrowly won in 2022 by Labor candidate Jerome Laxale, a former mayor of Ryde.
Assessment
Bennelong is an extremely marginal seat. The seat could easily go to either Labor or Liberal. It would be easy to assume that any swing to the Liberal Party nationally would see this seat flip, but the loss of Liberal Party incumbency in this electorate could see this seat buck the trend. Laxale now has a personal vote (admittedly just for the two thirds of the seat contained in Bennelong back in 2022), and the entire seat (both the areas previously contained in Bennelong and North Sydney) no longer has a personal vote for a sitting Liberal MP that was defending each seat in 2022. The third of the electorate added from North Sydney has also had an independent MP representing the area for three years which may benefit Laxale in a close race.
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing | Redist |
| Simon Kennedy | Liberal | 41,206 | 41.4 | -9.5 | 41.2 |
| Jerome Laxale | Labor | 37,596 | 37.7 | +3.7 | 31.8 |
| Tony Adams | Greens | 11,395 | 11.4 | +2.0 | 10.3 |
| Independent | 8.2 | ||||
| Rhys Ian Collyer | United Australia | 2,915 | 2.9 | +1.0 | 2.6 |
| Victor Waterson | One Nation | 1,664 | 1.7 | +1.7 | 1.5 |
| Dougal Cameron | Liberal Democrats | 1,539 | 1.5 | +1.5 | 1.4 |
| John August | Fusion | 2,125 | 2.1 | +2.1 | 1.4 |
| Others | 0.9 | ||||
| Kyinzom Dhongdue | Democratic Alliance | 1,208 | 1.2 | +1.2 | 0.8 |
| Informal | 6,130 | 5.8 | +0.6 |
2022 two-party-preferred result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing | Redist |
| Simon Kennedy | Liberal | 48,847 | 49.0 | -7.9 | 50.1 |
| Jerome Laxale | Labor | 50,801 | 51.0 | +7.9 | 49.9 |
Polling places in Bennelong have been split into three parts. Polling places in Hunters Hill, Lane Cove and Willoughby council areas have been grouped as “east”, while the rest of the electorate was split into north-west and south-west.
The Liberal Party won 51.5% of the two-party-preferred vote in the east, while Labor won 50.9% in the south-west and 52.1% in the north-west.
The Greens came third, with a primary vote ranging from 8.2% in the east to 12.1% in the north-west. Independent candidate Kylea Tink polled 23.6% of the vote in the east of the electorate, which lines up with the former North Sydney boundaries.
| Voter group | GRN prim | IND prim | LIB 2PP | Total votes | % of votes |
| East | 8.2 | 23.6 | 51.5 | 20,333 | 19.2 |
| North-West | 12.1 | 0.0 | 47.9 | 19,451 | 18.4 |
| South-West | 11.9 | 1.0 | 49.1 | 16,703 | 15.8 |
| Pre-poll | 9.6 | 7.6 | 49.6 | 29,893 | 28.3 |
| Other votes | 10.7 | 7.6 | 52.2 | 19,269 | 18.2 |
Election results in Bennelong at the 2022 federal election
Toggle between two-party-preferred votes and primary votes for the Liberal Party, Labor and the Greens.
They haven’t lost is John – there is nothing technical about that. You are just referring to how the election analysts look at the numbers.
If Labor doesn’t win they seat, they will have failed to “retain it”
This might be quite tricky for Labor. It could be tighter than i first thought. There are some wildcard factors I mentioned before about Laxale’s personal vote factor and the newly absorbed North Sydney parts.
I’ve seen physical ads for Scott Yung including the big billboard over the main road just outside Top Ryde.
I see Laxale’s campaign has gathered steam. Penny Wong has had a fair few public engagements in Bennelong (and Reid) so far this year.
redistributed,
The ICAC referral related to several Ryde Councillors, but did not include Jerome Laxale.
The full ICAC report:
https://www.parliament.nsw.gov.au/tp/files/6403/investigation-into-the-conduct-of-certain-city-of-ryde-councillors-and-others-operation-cavill-30-06-2014.pdf
SMH gives a summary of the case and outcome of the trials.
https://www.smh.com.au/national/nsw/former-ryde-mayor-ivan-petch-gets-18-month-sentence-20191218-p53l9m.html
WW – not the same case – the Jerome Laxale case started in 2019 and then kept going for a while.
More stuff out on Scott Yung which is negative, might be ideal for the Liberals to ditch the candidate and replace with some less accident prone.
Nominations have closed so it’s too late for stuff like that. That being said, Scott Yung isn’t the worst candidate out there. The previous one in 2022 was a lot worse.
SpaceFish, it’s too late. Ballots have been drawn. It shows that all parties, especially the Liberals in a marginal seat, should have a proper vetting process and should make aware of guidelines.
Some one, somewhere has it in for Scott Yung big time and won’t stop until he is brought down.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/frantic-calls-party-concern-as-lib-candidate-under-spotlight-20250409-p5lqkx.html
The Liberals candidate selection may cost them dearly. The Liberal candidate in Bruce seems to be in the news for all the wrong reason as well.
Maybe Liberals should call John Alexander out of retirement and contest in 2028 😀
Though not sure if John would resonate with the rightward shift of the Liberals since 2022
Re: Scott Yung, I’ve seen this movie before in Chisholm 2019, and it didn’t stop Gladys Liu from winning the seat.
Indeed “controversy” about a candidate being too pro China may swing a few 2022 ALP votes in their favour
@ redistributed
Enemies on his own side
@Blue Not John
Since new Bennelong is far less Chinese (still high) than the old Bennelong thanks to replacing Epping with Hunters Hill and Lane Cove, it makes me wonder if the redistribution was a blessing in disguise for Labor/Laxale.
I can’t comprehensively determine Lane Cove’s attitude towards China but demographic change and a potential general corruption issue could swing it Labor I guess?
Question: Is Hunters Hill a genuine anti-China area? I am unfamiliar with that area.
The chances of John Alexander coming out of retirement are the about equal to John Howard doing the same…
Zero
Leon, I think the border suburbs (Gladesville, Hunters Hill and Lane Cove) whilst being considered more ethnically white and less diverse also feature many private schools where children come from the neighbouring Chinese/Asian background suburbs (Ryde and Chatswood). As a result, I don’t think there will be significant anti-China sentiment in these areas.
I agree with Yoh An about those suburbs i dont see there will be much anti-China sentiment there. Anti-China sentiment will be stronger in seats like Herbert and Soloman due to significant milltary vote. Areas with large Muslim communities will be Pro-China as there is Anti-American sentiment there. It maybe the case in Wentworth there is anti-China sentiment among the Jewish community as they are Pro-American for example Michael Danby is a China Hawk.
@Redistributed There was a push to dump Scott Yung after the redistribution by the Hunter Hill LGA Mayor on the grounds of safer boundaries for the Libs so all those stories are likely some factional drama.
What faction didn’t like him loitering outside a primary school handing out lollies?
No matter what else appears if anything
Noms are closed so the libs are stuck with him
If one accepts the conventional wisdom that Labor are likely to underperform in outer suburban seats, the flipside to that is that they’re likely to overperform in seats like this (and Sturt), even without adding any impact of whatever baggage candidates have.