Bennelong – Australia 2025

for your viewing https://antonygreen.com.au/bennelong-map-illustrates-changing-map-technology/

@np the state results are based on an incumbent labor govt sweeping to power after 12 years of liberal rule. plu albo was in hi honeymoon having just won the aston by election a week later.

High Street
Those voters in Longueville etc. Had every reason to NOT vote Liberal lsst time between a Teal and a high profile Labor campaign. There are also people that will haved voted Teal but not vote Labor – they will go Green or back to the Libs. I do agree that this will be the first time that many voters will be subject to a full Labor campaign but I am not sure it is going to yield much.

@Mick no matter how many times you say it, it isn’t going to come true.

Every single factor points to this being picked up by the Liberals.

Not only is the seat technically Liberal now – we are entering an election with a nationwide swing to the Coalition.

What makes you think Bennelong will buck the trend?

@John from 4 Jan.

Could you please point out where my previous statement was not true? I have re-read it and stand by it. Read it closely to see what it is actually saying, not what you infer it to say…

This nonsense about it being technically a LIB seat, therefore that is a factor. Every analyst who has calculated a 0.1% margin acknowledges there is a margin of error on that calc. For the purposes of forecasting the result in the coming election it is essentially tied. A Labor incumbent with a sophomore surge is of greater impact than a 0.1% margin.

And @Wombater and @John – NO SWING IS UNIFORM. Number 1. of rule of election analysis. In 2019, pretty sure there was a swing in NSW away from ALP yet North Shore swung to ALP by 4.3%!!!

Re this seat to ultra marginal does not guarantee a change. If there is a swing to the liberals in nsw.. this makes it hard to retain. It is hard to estimate esp with the new areas added People have under estimated the “Alexander ” factor which I think boosted the liberal vote by 5% or more.

@ high Street yes but the state swing and the fact the libs have a good candidate plus you remove the scomo factor of 2022 pushes it in the libs favour. First term mps can and have been defeated.

@High Street correct, no swing is uniform. But looking more in depth into Bennelong – it swung in the same direction as the nationwide trend in 2022 AND much further – a 6.01% swing away from the Coalition nationwide, whilst Bennelong had a 7.9% swing away from the Coalition. The seat appears to swing in the same direction, yet much more so than the national trend – this is much more relevant than bringing up a seat like North Shore in the 2019 state election.

Bennelong has only been won 2 times by Labor since conception, both in landslide elections for Labor. It will not be won this time in an election where Labor is at risk of being the first one-term government in 96 years.

Not to mention Scott Yung has been incredibly active in campaigning whilst Laxale has been comparatively absent… Labor has given up on this seat it seems.

“Labor has given up on this seat it seems.”

So where are they sandbagging in NSW?

Not sure either. If I had to guess, the neigbouring seats like Parramatta and Reid would garner more positive returns than putting resources towards Bennelong.

May surprise.

Jerome Laxale’s office is now in Berowra. I assume he’ll have to move office if he wins. I wonder if anyone other MP’s office is now outside their electorate.

@Mick highly doubt it. This is like Reid in 2022, but reversed – Sitou was always going to win over Fiona Martin the incumbent.

Lane Cove is better than expected for Labor. Hunters Hill horrible.
I am going to tip an alp retain based upon the expected slight incumbency swing to.the sitting mp and the permanent loss of Alexander ‘s personal vote.
We’ll see

@Adam – Michelle Rowland (Greenway) had her office in Blacktown transferred to McMahon during the recent redistribution.

@mick all are gonna get belted. Alexander’s personal vote went in 2022 no more to be lost.

There will be a swing of 2-3% in nsw and he’s already starting off a negative vote from behind.

@Mick Bennelong has only been won 2 times by Labor since conception, both in landslide elections for Labor. It will not be won this time in an election where Labor is at risk of being the first one-term government in 96 years.

For Laxale, whatever “slight incumbency swing” won’t overcome the expected swing against Labor. Let’s not forget that the only reason Laxale got in was because Labor was in a landslide win election.

Last time the Liberals also did not have a candidate until 5 or 6 weeks before the election. It was a mess. And there was a loss of Alexanders personal vote. In most cases the Libs have learnt that lesson.

For these reasons and Scott Yung being a good pick this couls actually be a reasonable sized swing.

Well that could be a reason for this article with efforts of campaigning for Laxale:
“https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2025/feb/22/eight-labor-climate-champions-to-get-election-help-from-partys-grassroots-environment-action-group”

LEAN (Labor Environment Action Network) is supporting eight ‘climate and environment champions’. Make of that what you will. The electorates are: NSW: Bennelong & Reid, VIC: Cooper, Macnamara, Jagajaga QLD: Griffith, WA: Fremantle, ACT: Canberra.

The key parts of the article are this:
“The group will raise funds from supporters to back the effort but won’t directly donate to the candidates.
The on-the-ground campaigning is expected to focus on Laxale’s seat of Bennelong, Payne’s seat of Canberra and Coffey’s bid for Griffith.”

So, there’s a recognition this seat needs support to get Laxale over the line. (that’s your sandbagging for you @redistributed) I still think ALP is in the box seat here with Kylea Tink not running.

I’d be quite surprised if the Liberals don’t win here