Bennelong – Australia 2025

for your viewing https://antonygreen.com.au/bennelong-map-illustrates-changing-map-technology/

@np the state results are based on an incumbent labor govt sweeping to power after 12 years of liberal rule. plu albo was in hi honeymoon having just won the aston by election a week later.

High Street
Those voters in Longueville etc. Had every reason to NOT vote Liberal lsst time between a Teal and a high profile Labor campaign. There are also people that will haved voted Teal but not vote Labor – they will go Green or back to the Libs. I do agree that this will be the first time that many voters will be subject to a full Labor campaign but I am not sure it is going to yield much.

@Mick no matter how many times you say it, it isn’t going to come true.

Every single factor points to this being picked up by the Liberals.

Not only is the seat technically Liberal now – we are entering an election with a nationwide swing to the Coalition.

What makes you think Bennelong will buck the trend?

@John from 4 Jan.

Could you please point out where my previous statement was not true? I have re-read it and stand by it. Read it closely to see what it is actually saying, not what you infer it to say…

This nonsense about it being technically a LIB seat, therefore that is a factor. Every analyst who has calculated a 0.1% margin acknowledges there is a margin of error on that calc. For the purposes of forecasting the result in the coming election it is essentially tied. A Labor incumbent with a sophomore surge is of greater impact than a 0.1% margin.

And @Wombater and @John – NO SWING IS UNIFORM. Number 1. of rule of election analysis. In 2019, pretty sure there was a swing in NSW away from ALP yet North Shore swung to ALP by 4.3%!!!

Re this seat to ultra marginal does not guarantee a change. If there is a swing to the liberals in nsw.. this makes it hard to retain. It is hard to estimate esp with the new areas added People have under estimated the “Alexander ” factor which I think boosted the liberal vote by 5% or more.

@ high Street yes but the state swing and the fact the libs have a good candidate plus you remove the scomo factor of 2022 pushes it in the libs favour. First term mps can and have been defeated.

@High Street correct, no swing is uniform. But looking more in depth into Bennelong – it swung in the same direction as the nationwide trend in 2022 AND much further – a 6.01% swing away from the Coalition nationwide, whilst Bennelong had a 7.9% swing away from the Coalition. The seat appears to swing in the same direction, yet much more so than the national trend – this is much more relevant than bringing up a seat like North Shore in the 2019 state election.

Bennelong has only been won 2 times by Labor since conception, both in landslide elections for Labor. It will not be won this time in an election where Labor is at risk of being the first one-term government in 96 years.

Not to mention Scott Yung has been incredibly active in campaigning whilst Laxale has been comparatively absent… Labor has given up on this seat it seems.

“Labor has given up on this seat it seems.”

So where are they sandbagging in NSW?

Not sure either. If I had to guess, the neigbouring seats like Parramatta and Reid would garner more positive returns than putting resources towards Bennelong.

May surprise.

Jerome Laxale’s office is now in Berowra. I assume he’ll have to move office if he wins. I wonder if anyone other MP’s office is now outside their electorate.

@Mick highly doubt it. This is like Reid in 2022, but reversed – Sitou was always going to win over Fiona Martin the incumbent.

Lane Cove is better than expected for Labor. Hunters Hill horrible.
I am going to tip an alp retain based upon the expected slight incumbency swing to.the sitting mp and the permanent loss of Alexander ‘s personal vote.
We’ll see

@Adam – Michelle Rowland (Greenway) had her office in Blacktown transferred to McMahon during the recent redistribution.

@mick all are gonna get belted. Alexander’s personal vote went in 2022 no more to be lost.

There will be a swing of 2-3% in nsw and he’s already starting off a negative vote from behind.

@Mick Bennelong has only been won 2 times by Labor since conception, both in landslide elections for Labor. It will not be won this time in an election where Labor is at risk of being the first one-term government in 96 years.

For Laxale, whatever “slight incumbency swing” won’t overcome the expected swing against Labor. Let’s not forget that the only reason Laxale got in was because Labor was in a landslide win election.

Last time the Liberals also did not have a candidate until 5 or 6 weeks before the election. It was a mess. And there was a loss of Alexanders personal vote. In most cases the Libs have learnt that lesson.

For these reasons and Scott Yung being a good pick this couls actually be a reasonable sized swing.

Well that could be a reason for this article with efforts of campaigning for Laxale:
“https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2025/feb/22/eight-labor-climate-champions-to-get-election-help-from-partys-grassroots-environment-action-group”

LEAN (Labor Environment Action Network) is supporting eight ‘climate and environment champions’. Make of that what you will. The electorates are: NSW: Bennelong & Reid, VIC: Cooper, Macnamara, Jagajaga QLD: Griffith, WA: Fremantle, ACT: Canberra.

The key parts of the article are this:
“The group will raise funds from supporters to back the effort but won’t directly donate to the candidates.
The on-the-ground campaigning is expected to focus on Laxale’s seat of Bennelong, Payne’s seat of Canberra and Coffey’s bid for Griffith.”

So, there’s a recognition this seat needs support to get Laxale over the line. (that’s your sandbagging for you @redistributed) I still think ALP is in the box seat here with Kylea Tink not running.

I’d be quite surprised if the Liberals don’t win here

I don’t like Labor’s chances here.

Labor won with a super-sized swing here in 2022. To be fair, swings in electorates with large ethnic Chinese communities like Reid and Bennelong swing hard. John Alexander was a popular member who retired that election. Also, the Liberals preselected Simon Kennedy very last-minute which was silly as this was an at-risk seat.

Because of the large swing last election and a redistribution that made this notionally Liberal, it’s very hard to see Labor holding on. In Lane Cove part, if the teal vote converts into a Labor vote and Labor holds up elsewhere then Labor has some chance. The ex-teal vote will be critical as Ben kind of alluded to above.

Im so annoyed there is nobody to vote for now. LNP with their Temu Trump is unvotable, ALP cant get a decent policy together and they cant stop fighting themselves to govern properly. At this rate even the greens would be a better choice. But unfortunately we dont have a choice to vote for anybody but the ALP now.

Labor to retain Reid and Robertson
Most likely Banks and Hughes remain.lib
Labor retains Werriwa and Paterson.
The other hunter Valley seats remain Labor.
Fowler….. cannot pick

Parramatta alp retain

@mick labor to lose robertson werriwa and paterson. Reid labor retain on a smaller margin. Banks hughes lnp retain. hunter tossup shortland small labro retain. Fowler Dai le retain. Parramtta ultra marginal im tipping as the most marginal in the country too early to say who wins

ALP retains Parramatta.

ALP gains Fowler.

Also:
ALP gains Fowler.

Non / vic/ nsw
Wa at best alp +1
@ worst alp – 2
Tas
Alp even to +1
Act no change
Nt no change
Qld
Lots of chances of alp gains based on margins
But a lot are like Dutton ‘s seat lib retain
Alp will not lose existing held seats
Greens could drop 2
1 to libs
1 to alp
Leichhardt possible alp win.. I think retiring mp is very popular much more than We think.
Very Very Very outside chance Brisbane based seats based on state election result
Where is Kap to blow up the libs?

Tas should be even to -1

Tas should be even to -1
Sa even to plus 1

Can we go back to Bennelong, which is a really interesting contest?

The other stuff bongs in the general election thread.

Sorry had trouble finding it

@mick in wa libs will gain curtin bullwinkel and tangey.
alp will gain no seats in tasmania and will lose lyons to the libs and maybe franklin to the teal.
act bean is at risk to the teal
nt they will lose lingiari and maybe solomon
qld. possible gains for labor of brisbane leichardt and griffith. all alp seats bar oxley could be lost but the libs would need a landslide so not indicating any change. blair is their most likely loss, moreton could be close. all alp qld seats will be marginal. the retiring mp factor will be negated by the swing back to the libs. i think maybe a 1 maybe 2% swing. KAP only popular in the seats that overlap kennedy. SA only seats that could flip are Sturt and Boothby. people seem to be writing off Flint but i think there will be some swing to them over CoL not sure if enough.

ALP no chnace in Bennelong. this seat only flips to Labor when they come into government.

@Politik ALP will likely not gain Fowler. Dai Le is very well regarded in her community as a strong representative and the Vietnamese community would likely not see any reason to vote otherwise. As someone who has several friends of Vietnamese heritage that live in Fowler, I can tell you that their community is very, very strongly knit. I do not think that Labor can win with:
a) anti-Labor swing in CoL crisis-hit areas like Fowler
b) Dai Le’s incumbency factor and
c) Preferences from Liberals flowing to Dai Le

Let’s remember Dai Le as a new independent in 2022 had already gained 25,000+ votes whilst Labor had 30,973 votes. That vote will only increase from 2022 with the factors above.

Anyway, Bennelong: ALP has no chance here as John said – only won 2 times, both in landslide Labor wins. Won’t be happening this time round.

@wombater exactly the CoL crisis in this seat is hitting especially hard why woud voters reward labor? and bth wins in Bennelong can attributed to one other factor. John Howard was under pressure over Work Choices in 2007 and John Alexander retired in 2022. if he hadnt he probably would of narrowly held here.

I doubt Labor would have won here in 2007 if John Howard had not been the local MP. They had a PM who was ‘reachable’ but even then Labor had to throw everything at it including celebrity candidate and the kitchen sink. A normal MP and Labor would not have allocated the resources. They could see a scalp and then had to go for it. However , we will never know.

until we can see/travel into an alternate universe

John….
Made a typo re tas.. intended even to minus 1
Fowler I don’t know… but if Labor does win it will be a very difficult contest.
If only Mr Hayes had been taken notice of!
Wa I would not be sure of +3 to the libs
At a state level Darling Range and Kalamundra have safe margins. This result will give an indication re Bullwinkel.

They will lose both darling range and kalminda anything under 15% is not safe

Re Bennelong has the alp mp built a personal vote. ..he has been mayor of Ryde before hand.
I guessed once it was clear that John Howard was to retire, Labor would keep the seat because Howard was the best possible candidate. How wrong I was
John Alexander quickly built a personal vote.The other issue is how Lane Cove and Hunters Hill behave in a non teal seat.
Lane Cove is possibly the key to this question..
All in All I would not be certain of the outcome here……

Darth
You are.more certain than I am.
The 2017 election gave both seats to Labor . Pills suggesting similar 2pp.
Labor do not need to win both to be travelling ok for Bullwinkel just not crushed

@Wombater Interesting comment, thanks. I know Dai Le personally, and helped on her campaign in 2022. I gather that she has been a good MP for her constituency. But the result from last election was solely due to Kristina Keneally parachuting in. Now that the local, Tu Le, is running where she was meant to in 2022, I think that the ALP’s primary vote will modestly recover. The result may be frightfully close, but we will see. Fowler is a politically disengaged electorate, and given that both candidates are Le, I expect that some voters won’t really know the difference, and they will resolve to vote Labor because in ordinary circumstances, they always used to. Yes, I agree that the cost of living is a big factor here, as it is in most other seats, but it is worth remembering how much of a safe Labor seat Fowler was in all elections up to the 2022 fiasco. Tu Le is a young, appealing and engaging candidate and she has a level of support within the community that Kristina did not. We’ll see how it goes.

@Politik thank you for your insightful comment. I thoroughly enjoyed hearing your perspective on the matter. Either way, I think the electorate will be served well by either candidate. 🙂

The thing is this electorate has become more into Fairfield council. A council that dai Le and frank carbone control. Also there will be a swing against the alp on primary due to col. Dai Le should retain.

Also re been long personal vote or not the MP is now behind an it’s notionally liberal this is a normal liberal seat that only swings to Labor in landslides.

@Wombater, yeah, either would be fine. I would expect for the ALP to start saying “a vote for Dai Le is a vote for Dutton”. And if Frank runs in McMahon, then they may try something similar ‘don’t gamble on Frank” or something.

Trouble with Fairfield council used to be controlled by Joe Tripodi. His machine trashed the alp in that council.
The evil lives after them.