Bennelong – Australia 2025

I could see Labor holding this and bucking the national trend however if Kylea Tink runs here I could see her possibly winning here as well.

Liberal gain

@Darth Vader this is a notional Liberal seat so technically it would be “Liberal notional hold”.

I agree that the Liberals will win this though.

Kylea Tink isn’t contesting a lower house seat as she announced on twitter so I reckon Labor hold.

I feel Bennelong is definitely lineball. Whilst the redistribution pushes the seat into the Liberal column, the fact that unlike Werriwa or Gorton Bennelong is an inner-city seat, coupled with a possible sophomore surge for Laxale gives Labor some advantage in holding (or regaining) this seat. Given that inner city seats of all persuasions are leaning more and more left wing to Labor or Greens it’s possible Labor could hang on.

Which is why I also would put Tangney in the same boat. Both are inner-city seats with demos that favour Labor somewhat which will help them. They’ll lose the likes of Gilmore, Paterson, Lingiari etc but they do stand a chance at holding Bennelong and Tangney, but it’s far from certain.

I think this is a Liberal gain. Why?

1. Scott Yung (Liberal) is becoming very popular, increasingly showing up at major events e.g. the Granny Smith festival in Eastwood, visiting local businesses etc
2. The redistribution puts Jerome Laxale (Labor) at a loss already
3. Many of Labor’s votes in 2022 were protest votes due to ScoMo’s reckless anti-China stance, given that most of the voters in the seat are of Asian descent

Just liberal with Lots of liberal area shifted into seat
Eg Hunters Hill
It.may well remain alp held

Again I reckon this seat is lineball or toss-up (whichever term you prefer). Liberals have an advantage with the demos in the eastern side as well as their candidate. However, Labor has incumbency (which usually, not always though) produces a sophomore surge, and the inner-city demographic which has been turning more and more left-wing in recent years might mean it could be trending towards Labor generally even without the redistribution. Not to mention the big Chinese population who might credit Albanese with restoring a good relationship between Australia and China.

All I’m saying is that both sides have a chance to win it, and I suspect Albanese and Dutton will be pouring their resources in this electorate along with Tangney and some of the others. I wouldn’t write off a Labor retain/regain but I also think the Liberals stand a good shot at reclaiming this.

Good points. I think the “inner-city demographic” doesn’t really apply here as it is really considered a suburban “mortgage belt” electorate. A substantial portion of the Chinese population (including myself) care deeply about the state of the economy, and although Albanese has repaired the relationship with China, it is largely overshadowed by the perception that the economy is now stalling.

Like Tangney, a lot of the Labor votes were “protest votes” and I feel like they might swing back to Liberal votes at this election. I think all of the factors work in the Lib’s favour to be honest.

You know or these Labor “protest voters” personally, do you wombat??!

Have you ever been to Hunters Hill and Lane Cove? Mortgage belt is definitely ain’t.

My question is will Peter Dutton even turn up here or is Scott Yung on his own? Will be a surprise to see Dutton east of Paramatta

@Mick I’m curious will the Libs gain any seats? Labor actually require a swing to them here since the redistribution has made marginally liberal.

Agree Insider, even the other parts of the district (Ryde council area up to Eastwood) are no longer mortgage belt. Average house prices are over $2 million, and unit prices are also almost $1 million too. Certainly not mortgage belt now.

A better description would be that the boundary change shifted this seat to line ball. Labor only needs to slightly improve their vote to win. Often a sitting mp gets a slight swing their way as a reward for incumbency.
I am not saying the libs will Win no seats off Labor but rather there are NO certain seats… people here besides me assume that this seat and that seat are certain liberal wins based on.the small margins of 2022. This is not certain and you can’t assume state election results translate to federal results. On state figures Dickson is alp held but i think it unlikely that Dutton will be defeated.

@Mick qld is unique in that people often vote one way a state level and different federally based on different issues. At a state level people vote on things like education and health which are natural labor areas and then they mainly vote liberal federally die to things like the economy.

In Sydney, surely up to $2million is mortgage belt today?

If we’re talking about the suburbs with the very highest rates of homeownership with a mortgage, then we’re looking at the new estates in northwest and southwest Sydney, such as:

– Spring Farm (62.1%): $990,000
– Marsden Park (66.5%): $1,020,000
– Caddens (63.6%): $1,170,500
– Denham Court (61.0%): $1,199,000
– Box Hill (68.8%): $1,245,000
– Colebee (68.9%): $1,277,500
– Gledswood Hills (66.1%): $1,332,500

So, just over $1,000,000.

The highest median house price I can find for a suburb with over 50% homeownership with a mortgage is Kellyville, at $1,915,000.

If these suburbs are the “mortgage belt” of Sydney now – then “mortgage belt” surely has very different connotations to what it had 20 years ago. Put it this way – if you’ve recently bought your first home in Sydney, and it’s a house, you’re doing very well for yourself.

As for Bennelong, I’m not sure how one comes to the conclusion that it is in any sense of the word “mortgage belt”.

Well said Nicholas. I mean every seat has some diversity, but you have to look at the average. Although perhaps all the apartments in Lane Cove North give rise to a new style of mortgage belt (and may be less affluent than those suburbs you list above, though having said that, I don’t know what an apartment on Mowbray Road West goes for.

But go and stand down Greenwich road and look down to the water – it neither feels not votes like “the mortgage belt”

@ Nicholas
I agree with you mortgage belt refers to areas that usually have an above average % dwelling being purchased/owned with a mortgage. These are usually growth areas. Ryde would have been a mortgage belt in the post war period. Aston was mortgage belt from the late 1980s to the Mid 2000s now it is settled and established and more homes are now owned outright which is why it trended Liberal. Cook was a mortgage belt seat from the late 1960s to the early 1980s and used to be a swing seat. I would describe mortgage belt seats as Holt, Greenway, parts of Werriwa, Pearce, Hasluck, Hawke, Lalor, Forde, Petrie amongst others.

I was being somewhat tongue in cheek, a comment on crazy Sydney house prices – then I looked at Nicholas’s list and realised I wasn’t out of the ballpark at all!

Agree Labor Voter, and I thought Brisbane house prices were expensive at 700-800k for the mortgage belt area (Springfield, Caboolture etc).

I currently live in the seat of Berowra but am quite familiar with this seat. Bennelong (in current form) can’t really be accurately described as “mortgage belt” or “inner-city”, it doesn’t fit neatly into either of those categories. In categorising the current political character of the suburbs within the electorate it is more useful to look at housing density.

A good portion of the electorate includes high-density apartments, particularly in Ryde, Meadowbank and Macquarie Park. The high-density suburbs contain voters who you would expect to increasingly lean towards Labor versus the Liberals, they are very ethnically diverse (and I think there are still significant questions surrounding Dutton’s appeal to Chinese voters) generally singles or young families, and also contain a disproportionate number of students given the proximity to Macquarie University.

The low-density residential areas between these larger centers are older and more Anglo-Australian. The houses are (by northern Sydney standards) fairly standard middle class, but many would easily be worth upwards of $2 million these days. That puts the residential areas in the higher-end nationally. I think it’s reasonable to expect that the political flow-on from this is that the residential areas should be expected to remain solidly Liberal-leaning, voters living there are doing well but aren’t on the level of prioritising “post-material” concerns, unlike some of the wealthier Teal areas. An exception to this might be the wealthier areas of Hunters Hill council that have now been added to the electorate, but in the absence of a Teal candidate (Tink would be mad to run here) I do not think any residual Hunters Hill ex-North Sydney Teal vote would be significant enough to make too much of a difference. A good chunk of the residential voters in all areas of this seat would earn over the $146k where Labor’s changes to the stage 3 tax cuts start negatively affecting them, you actually need to earn above that to pay a mortgage/raise kids in these types of areas.

An interesting factor to also consider is Lane Cove council now being added to the electorate. This has been trending from a formally safe Liberal area to more of a swing-area over recent years, in elections for all 3 levels of government. The suburbs of Lane Cove and Lane Cove North are medium to high density, however they are more likely than the high-density suburbs in Ryde Council to contain Anglo-Australian, young professional renters who work in the CBD. These voters have been increasingly moving to the left, whether that be Labor, Teals or the Greens.

All up, I think this is a seat where Labor has a shot of retaining, but it’s the Liberals to lose. I’m not the greatest fan of the candidate Scott Young personally, but I think he is likely to be a strong campaigner, and as an Asian-Australian he is likely to change perceptions of the Liberal Party amongst some of the Asian voters in the seat. It is also important to note that Epping has been removed from the seat, which contains the high-density characteristics noted above, and replaced with Hunters Hill and Lane Cove Councils, which while changing, you would still back to vote Liberal all else being equal. There is no point in a Teal running here as the Labor and Liberal Primary votes will be too high, and my feeling is that the medium-high wealth traditional Liberal areas will return in the current environment of an unpopular Labor Government, rated badly on economic management, and where there is no credible Teal alternative.

@Insider yes I do. Suburbs like Ryde, East Ryde, West Ryde, Denistone and Eastwood make up the majority of this seat and ARE “mortgage-belt” suburbs. You’ve listed 2 very low-density suburbs that comparatively make up a tiny portion of this seat – there is no need for the passive aggression here.

I don’t see you asking Tommo9 if he’s been to any suburbs in the seat, despite mislabelling it as an “inner-city demographic” – why ask me, but not him?

@Yoh An and @Nicholas
My idea of a “mortgage belt” suburb are suburbs where there are families that have a mortgage that hasn’t been paid off, and are thus more sensitive to economic changes that affect household mortgages.
ABS data shows Bennelong to have a higher percentage of households than nationwide where the mortgage repayments are greater than 30% of their household income (23.6% vs. 14.5% nationally). This indicates that homeowners in Bennelong would be at greater risk of mortgage stress, which to me classifies them as a “mortgage belt” electorate due to being more sensitive to economic changes (excluding the new suburbs of Hunters Hill and Lane Cove).
Yes, the area has median house prices surpassing 2 million in most, if not all suburbs here – however, this does not mean that they’re mortgage free. In fact, the median mortgage repayments in Bennelong was $2600 in ABS 2021 data, more than NSW ($2167) and Australia ($1863). So in fact, voters in Bennelong are more likely to be under “mortgage stress” than NSW and Australia in general. I therefore think of Bennelong as being mostly “mortgage-belt” suburbs especially when you compare it to electorates like Wentworth and Warringah.

I wouldn’t consider the suburbs of Ryde LGA – with over 60 years of suburban development – to be part of Sydney’s mortgage belt. They’re middle-city suburbs – not inner-city or outer-city.

Wombater – I think you are not giving enough credence to the fact that Bennelong has moved so far east. Much of the seat is now closer to the city than Reid, and it is generally considered and “inner city seat”.

I have gone back and read Tommo9’s comment and think they are quite sensible – I don’t think he has mislabeled it as inner city. Even Ryde is 40km from Penrith. Although I am willing to partly agree with Ian that it’s at least a bit of a mix, but only just.

I think you have a misguided view of mortgage belt – it is not generally considered to be just people with mortgages. I live in southern parts of Bradfield and still have a sizeable mortgage, and so does everyone when they first move in, but no one is going round saying they live in the mortgage belt.

Agree insider, if you are in the mid to late stages of mortgage repayments due to living in an established area for many decades, you are in a much secure position compared to someone who has just bought a house and hence started their mortgage repayments. The latter group of people would be living in the outer suburbs and tend to be younger, being in a more precarious financial situation compared to those who are older and in a more stable situation.

@Ian I think I have a different idea of “mortgage-belt” to most commentors here. To me, a “mortgage-belt” suburb is more prone to mortgage stress, and to economic changes that affect mortgages, e.g. interest rates. This therefore applies to Bennelong where voters have a) higher mortgage repayments than NSW and Australia, and b) have a greater percentage of homeowners where their mortgage repayments are >30% of their household income (the widely accepted definition of mortgage stress).

Although many may “think” that the suburbs in Ryde LGA are not facing mortgage stress and wouldn’t be as affected by changes that would impact “mortgage-belt” suburbs (based on the perception that high house prices = less mortgage stress), ABS data suggests otherwise.

@Insider Yes, Bennelong has moved east, however, I would strongly disagree that it is considered an “inner city seat” – these would be seats such as Sydney, Wentworth, Warringah, the now-defunct seat of North Sydney and Grayndler. Reid and Bennelong may be equidistant to Sydney CBD but one is made of suburbia (Bennelong) and the other is not.

Most of Reid is made up of Inner West suburbs that are culturally similar to Grayndler. Most of Bennelong is made up of suburbia, waterfront mansions or apartments – which is culturally distinct from the “inner city” demographic that we were all talking about in the first place. To be classified as an “inner city” electorate, it would either a) be a wealthy and socially progressive Teals electorate like Warringah and Wentworth or b) be a very socially progressive Labor/Greens electorate like Grayndler and Sydney.
Bennelong does not fit either at this stage. Even with the addition of Hunters Hill, Woolwich and Longueville (all of which are low-density and largely conservative suburban suburbs that voted for the Liberal Party instead of the independent Kylea Tink during 2022), Bennelong remains an electorate comprised mostly of middle ring suburbs, as Ian has mentioned.
I accept that I have a different view of a “mortgage-belt” suburb – however I’m not too sure why people going around talking about being “mortgage-belt” or not would actually affect whether they were mortgage-belt… the data speaks for itself.

I sense that mortgage/rental stress will correlate with Labor’s performance at the next election. Mortgage stress is defined by repayments being more than 30% of pre-tax income. Even this definition doesn’t take into account other factors such as life situation, household expenses, family size and even income. A single parent in precarious or unstable work would be in more financial stress than a dual-income, empty nester couple with stable employment, even if both have the same repayment to income ratio.

One underrated demographic in Bennelong is the renter demographic. There are many renters who live here due to its proximity to white-collar employment hubs like Chatswood, North Sydney, Macquarie Park and North Ryde as well as transport hubs like Epping and unis like Macquarie Uni and ACU.

Bennelong, on its pre-redistribution boundaries, has 30.2% of its households with a mortgage, slightly below the state and national averages.

The suburbs I mentioned in my earlier comment are over 60%. If Bennelong is mortgage belt, then so is half the country.

And as Yoh An alludes to – a couple who just bought a house in The Ponds for $1,000,000 is in a very different situation from a couple who bought their now-$2,500,000 house in Denistone 20 years ago for $500,000.

@Votante well said. I think I have confused “mortgage-belt” suburbs with “mortgage-stress” suburbs as both definitions lead to the same political outcomes/affected by the same economic factors.

@Nicholas yes, my mistake. I actually meant to refer to “mortgage stress” it seems. A lot of homeowners in the Ryde LGA are young families with substantial mortgages – these families would be most prone to mortgage stress and would vote accordingly, not unlike “mortgage-belt” suburbs which I have mistaken it for. Sorry!

Somehow it has only just occurred to me that under the definition of “mortgage stress” given by @Votante, I will be under mortgage stress once my mortgage begins. (I recently bought my first home.) But my many calculations and spreadsheets tell me I won’t be in any trouble.

As @Votante points out, that definition, while convenient, does seem too coarse.

Perhaps it is not a coincidence that I intend to vote Coalition above Labor for the first time in my life in 2025?

@Wombater

I just checked the stats on mortgage stress specifically, and that checks out. Who are these people and what are they buying?

Liberal by 200 to 300 votes

@Wombater: Dutton is also anti-China, just like ScoMo. I don’t think Dutton will help the Liberal Party recover support among Chinese Australians. The Liberal candidate for Bennelong being a Chinese Australian may help a little, but not much.

The margin post the redistribution is liberal by 200 to 300 votes… this is super
Marginal

if you look at the polls a 2-3 swing is coming in nsw so given then labor are already behind its hard to see them making this.

@joseph they arent going hard on the anti-cinese rhetoric like morrison and they certainly arent anti-chinese people. they are however protesting things being done by the chinese communist government. but they are certainly not anti-chinese people. this will be a liberal gain unless dutton says he intentds to invade cchina

When you talk of a gap of 200 to 300. It is Possible that population changes by themselves could shift this to 200 the otherwise. The opinion polls if correct are suggesting 2 to 3 % anti Labor.swing but this prior to the budget and without any intensive campaigning.

@Mick yea like the the budget is gonna help Labor with defectors as far as the eye can see.

@mick and they could go 200 furher to the libs

@Joseph While Dutton is a China hawk, they aren’t making “tough on China” one of their main principles as it was in 2022.

+ This time they’re running a Chinese Australian, as opposed to last time when they ran a vaccine/lockdown sceptic in what was probably one of the most pro-vaccine/lockdown areas of the country.

++ They’ve technically already got this seat.

@SCart correct its technically now a liberal seat in the same way Menzies is technically now a Labor seat

@john
And both may well.be retained by their
Current parties

Oh – everyone is soooo confident about the outcome of this seat. The reason is is now 0.1% to the Liberals is because of the high Liberal primary vote in places added to the seat in Hunters Hill and Riverview plus Longueville. The Liberals have a very high primary vote in these places so there is plenty of room for it to fall – don’t forget these people have never had a Labor MP campaigning in their area trying to win their vote.

It could be argued that the Liberal vote in both Bennelong and North Sydney was to some extent suppressed in 2022 because there were not endorsed candidates until 7 – 8 weeks before the election. No endorsed candidate meant no money coud be spent. No candidate – no campaigning. The process was a mess and widely reported. Both time and momentum was lost.

@Redistributed that’s true.

@mick libs will win both.

@high Street that’s not true btw

@high treet until 1993 election it had always contained both hunters hill and riverview since its creation in 1949. it lost riverview in 1993 and hunters hill in 2001. and besides the elections where labor was in opposition or did very well in govt the libs have alway maintained a good margin. labor is gonna go backwards this election and given they are already behind i dont see how they hold this division given its technically a liberal seat. i predict about a 6% swing here to the liberals

@John I doubt it’d be 6%. Maybe 2-3%. Should look a bit like the state results which I’ll calculate some time today or tonight.