ALP 11.2%
Incumbent MP
Lisa Chesters, since 2013.
Geography
Bendigo and surrounding parts of northwestern Victoria. Bendigo covers Greater Bendigo and Mount Alexander council areas, as well as parts of Campaspe, Mitchell and Macedon Ranges council areas. A majority of the population lives in Bendigo, and the other major town is Castlemaine.
Redistribution
Bendigo expanded to the east and north, taking in Pyalong, Tooborac and Rochester from Nicholls. These changes cut the Labor margin from 12.1% to 11.2%.
Bendigo is an original federation electorate. The seat has switched back and forth between the major parties over its long history.
Bendigo was first won in 1901 by Protectionist candidate John Quick. Quick was a Victorian colonial MP and a delegate to the Constitutional Conventions. Quick served as a member of Alfred Deakin’s third ministry in 1909, and held the seat until his defeat in 1913.
Bendigo was won in 1913 by prominent lawyer John Arthur, standing for the ALP. Arthur won re-election in 1914 and was appointed Minister for External Affairs in the third Fisher government, but quickly fell ill and died in December 1914, aged 39.
The 1915 Bendigo by-election was won by the ALP’s Alfred Hampson. Hampson remained loyal to the ALP when it split over the issue of conscription in 1916, but at the 1917 election he was challenged for his seat by Prime Minister Billy Hughes, who had switched from the ALP to the new Nationalist Party.
Hughes had been a member of the House of Representatives since federation, holding the seat of West Sydney. He had served as a minister in the Labor governments of Chris Watson and Andrew Fisher, before becoming Prime Minister in 1915 upon Fisher’s retirement.
Hughes held Bendigo until 1922, when he switched to the seat of North Sydney. At that election his party lost its majority, and the price of Country Party support for the Nationalist government was Hughes’ replacement as Prime Minister by Stanley Bruce.
Hughes remained in Parliament for another three decades. He served on the backbench through Stanley Bruce’s government, before leading a group of rebels in 1929 which saw Bruce lose his majority and then lose the following election. Hughes later served in ministerial roles and indeed as leader of the United Australia Party, and served as an MP until his death in 1952.
Bendigo was won in 1922 by Nationalist candidate Geoffrey Hurry, who defeated the Country Party’s Edmund Jowett, whose seat of Grampians had been abolished in the redistribution. Hurry held the seat until the 1929 election, when he lost his seat.
Bendigo was won in 1929 by Richard Keane, who was General Secretary of the Australian Railways Union. He only held Bendigo for one term, losing in 1931, but later was elected to the Senate in 1937. He served as a minister in the wartime Labor governments, and died in 1946 while on government business in Washington DC.
Eric Harrison of the United Australia Party won Bendigo in 1931. He was re-elected in 1934, and attempted to move to the new seat of Deakin in 1937, but failed to win preselection, and retired.
In 1937, Bendigo was won by the Country Party’s George Rankin. Rankin held the seat until 1949, when the redistribution changed Bendigo substantially, and he was successful in winning election to the Senate. He served in the Senate until he retired in 1955.
In 1949, the ALP’s Percy Clarey won Bendigo. Clarey had been a member of the Victorian upper house and a state minister, while also serving as President of the ACTU. Clarey held the seat until his death in 1960.
The 1960 by-election was won by the ALP’s Noel Beaton. He held the seat until he resigned in 1969, triggering another by-election. The second by-election was won by the ALP’s David Kennedy. Kennedy lost Bendigo in 1972, against the flow of an election where Gough Whitlam won power for the ALP.
The Liberal Party’s John Bourchier won Bendigo in 1972, and held it until 1983, when he lost to the ALP’s John Brumby.
Brumby was re-elected in 1984 and 1987, but lost in 1990. Brumby was elected to the Victorian Legislative Council at a by-election in 1993, and only four months later was elected Leader of the Victorian ALP and won a second by-election for a Legislative Assembly seat. Brumby served as Opposition Leader until early 1999, when he stepped aside for Steve Bracks. Brumby served as a senior minister in the Bracks government from 1999 until Bracks’ retirement in 2007, when Brumby was elected as Premier. Brumby served as premier for three years before losing the 2010 election, and retiring from Parliament.
Bruce Reid won Bendigo for the Liberal Party in 1990. He held the seat until 1998, when the ALP’s Steve Gibbons won the seat. Gibbons was elected in Bendigo six times, and retired in 2013.
Labor candidate Lisa Chesters won Bendigo in 2013, and has been re-elected three times.
- Avery Barnett-Dacey (Greens)
- Lisa Chesters (Labor)
- Matt Evans (Liberal)
- Evelyn Keetelaar (Family First)
- Andrew Lethlean (Nationals)
- Wayne Taylor (Legalise Cannabis)
- Rohan Tyler (Victorian Socialists)
Assessment
Bendigo is a safe Labor seat
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing | Redist |
| Lisa Chesters | Labor | 42,883 | 43.0 | -0.6 | 42.5 |
| Darin Schade | Liberal | 26,576 | 26.6 | -5.2 | 26.6 |
| Cate Sinclair | Greens | 14,026 | 14.1 | +3.2 | 13.9 |
| Ben Mihail | One Nation | 5,508 | 5.5 | -0.7 | 5.6 |
| James Laurie | Independent | 4,319 | 4.3 | +4.3 | 4.2 |
| Elijah Suares | United Australia | 3,579 | 3.6 | -0.7 | 3.6 |
| Matt Bansemer | Liberal Democrats | 2,888 | 2.9 | +2.9 | 3.0 |
| Others | 0.6 | ||||
| Informal | 3,764 | 3.6 | -0.5 |
2022 two-party-preferred result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing | Redist |
| Lisa Chesters | Labor | 61,968 | 62.1 | +3.3 | 61.2 |
| Darin Schade | Liberal | 37,811 | 37.9 | -3.3 | 38.8 |
Booths have been divided into five areas. Polling places in the Mount Alexander and Macedon Ranges shires have been split up into two groups.
Polling places in the Greater Bendigo council area have been split into three groups. Those polling places in the Bendigo urban area have been split into “south” and “north”, with the remainder grouped as “Bendigo Rural”.
Labor won a majority of the two-party-preferred vote in all five areas, ranging from 53.3% in Bendigo Rural to 72.9% in Mount Alexander.
The Greens primary vote ranged from 10.0% in Bendigo Rural to 27.6% in Mount Alexander.
| Voter group | GRN prim | ALP 2PP | Total votes | % of votes |
| Bendigo Rural | 10.0 | 53.3 | 11,994 | 11.7 |
| Bendigo South | 15.7 | 64.1 | 11,853 | 11.5 |
| Bendigo North | 12.6 | 66.5 | 7,687 | 7.5 |
| Mount Alexander | 27.6 | 72.9 | 6,482 | 6.3 |
| South-East | 18.1 | 59.8 | 4,207 | 4.1 |
| Pre-poll | 12.6 | 60.5 | 44,968 | 43.7 |
| Other votes | 12.2 | 60.0 | 15,649 | 15.2 |
Election results in Bendigo at the 2022 federal election
Toggle between two-party-preferred votes and primary votes for Labor, the Liberal Party and the Greens.
This seat was once a close marginal seat, I’d say now with the demographic trend Labor should hold here fairly comfortably still could see a small swing of 2-3% away from Labor.
In Chester’s were to retire and this lost the remainder of Macedon ranges this might be in play. I’d say remove Castlemaine but who are we kidding that would never happen
The Nationals are clearly putting a bit of an effort in here – they’ve got quite a few signs/billboards up and their ads started lobbing in my social media feed within 15 minutes of arriving in town. It’s the first time they’ve run since 2016 (and only the third since it became a Labor seat in 1998); when they do run, they usually struggle to get their deposit back.
It’s interesting that Bendigo and Ballarat have both trended strongly to Labor at both federal and state level over the last 30 years when comparably-sized centres in other states, if anything, have gone the other way. A bit of that is Melbourne spillover into places like Castlemaine but the cities themselves have trended similarly.
Without Castlemaine and Macedon Bendigo would be marginal and in play
The local Liberals got done in by Jeff Kennett in the 90s and the local Libs dropped the ball – and have never come close to picking it up since. Both cities have big public sector workforces so that leads to a Labor bias. Castlemaine / Daylesford have become big tree chsnge / Green destinations so Labor have an advantage. Michael Ronaldson having to step down in 2001 for heakth reasons did the Liberals no favours.
John, all the booths in the city of Bendigo are over 60% ALP. Taking out Castlemaine and Macedon would not make this a marginal seat.
BT – what similar sized cities in other states? Toowoomba is a similar size, (although oddly a lot of people outside Queensland have never heard of it) but that has always been conservative. Albury-Wodonga is a similar size. Perhaps that region would get more attention if they were in the same state, which would make an urban seat based on that area possible, and maybe more competive. Launceston is also similar, I’d agree that area is trending more conservative.
Ballarat and Bendigo are roughly similar in size. Toowoomba and Cairns about 30 % bigger. Albury – Wodonga marginally smaller than Ballarat and Bendigo with Launceston and Mackay just marginally smaller again.
Who finishes second here libs or nats
Nats based on the candidate
You’d think the Nats candidate would have to really run it up in the Rochester and Heathcote area to make the 2PP
I’m beginning to think so. I have friends who live here who I’m visiting in the next two weeks I might sus this one out. I will actually be there 3 times before the end of march. Could get interesting but I imagine a labor hold. Once Lisa Chester’s retires and or the Macedon ranges are gone this could be close
The nats obviously think they can be within a shot if they put in a candidate.
Last time the Nats caught up to the Libs on PV in bendigo was 1987. Since then theyve been way below when both have run. But i think choice of candidate and the state Nats being popular in the area could help them out this time around
Margins too high though for any Coalition candidate to unseat Chesters
Agreed they won’t win until Chester’s retires. Or the Macedon ranges are removed
Went the nat candidate forum yesterday they had andrew there along with Bridget McKenzie and Jacinta place. Nats aren’t playing for second or thrid place. However Chester’s incumbency and that Macedon ranges vote will likely save her.
With Mallee and Nicholls expanding over time as their share of the Victorian population declines, Bendigo’s likely to get pushed further towards the Macedon Ranges, not away from it. The only thing which would change this would be if a northern Victorian seat (presumably Nicholls) were abolished.
The Nationals may be making more of an effort than in previous years but I’d still be surprised if they make double figures.
This is a very safe Labor seat, and is mostly urban. The Nats are pretty much irrelevant here.
Bendigo has pushed up into Rochester which has always been prime Nat territory – they have also contested Bendigo West at state level and done OK. They might be good for a few ON preferences.
bendigo will probably lose the macedon ranges parts to a new seat whether thats by an increase to parliament or when victoria regains its 39th seat.
Bendigo Ballarat and Geelong actual seats at both state and federal levels are out of liberal party range.
Now overflow here and surf Coast helps Labor. Eg
Polwarth state seat
Mallee if grows will take away area from Wannon….any new Area added to Wannon will be better for labor
@mick if you count corangamite as geelong thats not as the 7.9% is below the 8.5% swing redbridge has reported in vic against labor. the state labor vote is dragging dowqn the federal vote. the nats seem to be giving bendigo a crack but as i stated before its probably a bit too far to flip ths elction. expect to see a massive swing at state level as seen in the werribee by election. labor will never win wannon
Nats really gonna give this a go I hear. I doubt they can overcome the 13% margin. But it will be back to a marginal seat.
Given that last time a Nat ran in Bendigo they lost their deposit I very much doubt they will bother giving it a serious go, and if they do someone should check Nat HQ for moles cause it would be a magnificent waste of resources.
Nats seem to have a high profile candidate with large volunteer and fundraising base this time. If they can make it to the 2CP that would be quite the achievement.