Bendigo – Australia 2025

This seat was once a close marginal seat, I’d say now with the demographic trend Labor should hold here fairly comfortably still could see a small swing of 2-3% away from Labor.

In Chester’s were to retire and this lost the remainder of Macedon ranges this might be in play. I’d say remove Castlemaine but who are we kidding that would never happen

The Nationals are clearly putting a bit of an effort in here – they’ve got quite a few signs/billboards up and their ads started lobbing in my social media feed within 15 minutes of arriving in town. It’s the first time they’ve run since 2016 (and only the third since it became a Labor seat in 1998); when they do run, they usually struggle to get their deposit back.

It’s interesting that Bendigo and Ballarat have both trended strongly to Labor at both federal and state level over the last 30 years when comparably-sized centres in other states, if anything, have gone the other way. A bit of that is Melbourne spillover into places like Castlemaine but the cities themselves have trended similarly.

Without Castlemaine and Macedon Bendigo would be marginal and in play

The local Liberals got done in by Jeff Kennett in the 90s and the local Libs dropped the ball – and have never come close to picking it up since. Both cities have big public sector workforces so that leads to a Labor bias. Castlemaine / Daylesford have become big tree chsnge / Green destinations so Labor have an advantage. Michael Ronaldson having to step down in 2001 for heakth reasons did the Liberals no favours.

John, all the booths in the city of Bendigo are over 60% ALP. Taking out Castlemaine and Macedon would not make this a marginal seat.

BT – what similar sized cities in other states? Toowoomba is a similar size, (although oddly a lot of people outside Queensland have never heard of it) but that has always been conservative. Albury-Wodonga is a similar size. Perhaps that region would get more attention if they were in the same state, which would make an urban seat based on that area possible, and maybe more competive. Launceston is also similar, I’d agree that area is trending more conservative.

Ballarat and Bendigo are roughly similar in size. Toowoomba and Cairns about 30 % bigger. Albury – Wodonga marginally smaller than Ballarat and Bendigo with Launceston and Mackay just marginally smaller again.

Who finishes second here libs or nats

Nats based on the candidate

You’d think the Nats candidate would have to really run it up in the Rochester and Heathcote area to make the 2PP

I’m beginning to think so. I have friends who live here who I’m visiting in the next two weeks I might sus this one out. I will actually be there 3 times before the end of march. Could get interesting but I imagine a labor hold. Once Lisa Chester’s retires and or the Macedon ranges are gone this could be close

The nats obviously think they can be within a shot if they put in a candidate.

Last time the Nats caught up to the Libs on PV in bendigo was 1987. Since then theyve been way below when both have run. But i think choice of candidate and the state Nats being popular in the area could help them out this time around

Margins too high though for any Coalition candidate to unseat Chesters

Agreed they won’t win until Chester’s retires. Or the Macedon ranges are removed

Went the nat candidate forum yesterday they had andrew there along with Bridget McKenzie and Jacinta place. Nats aren’t playing for second or thrid place. However Chester’s incumbency and that Macedon ranges vote will likely save her.

With Mallee and Nicholls expanding over time as their share of the Victorian population declines, Bendigo’s likely to get pushed further towards the Macedon Ranges, not away from it. The only thing which would change this would be if a northern Victorian seat (presumably Nicholls) were abolished.

The Nationals may be making more of an effort than in previous years but I’d still be surprised if they make double figures.

This is a very safe Labor seat, and is mostly urban. The Nats are pretty much irrelevant here.

Bendigo has pushed up into Rochester which has always been prime Nat territory – they have also contested Bendigo West at state level and done OK. They might be good for a few ON preferences.

bendigo will probably lose the macedon ranges parts to a new seat whether thats by an increase to parliament or when victoria regains its 39th seat.

Bendigo Ballarat and Geelong actual seats at both state and federal levels are out of liberal party range.
Now overflow here and surf Coast helps Labor. Eg
Polwarth state seat

Mallee if grows will take away area from Wannon….any new Area added to Wannon will be better for labor

@mick if you count corangamite as geelong thats not as the 7.9% is below the 8.5% swing redbridge has reported in vic against labor. the state labor vote is dragging dowqn the federal vote. the nats seem to be giving bendigo a crack but as i stated before its probably a bit too far to flip ths elction. expect to see a massive swing at state level as seen in the werribee by election. labor will never win wannon