ALP 12.9%
Incumbent MP
David Smith, since 2019. Previously senator for the Australian Capital Territory, 2018-2019.
Geography
Bean covers the southern suburbs of Canberra and the southern parts of the ACT. Canberra covers all of the Tuggeranong, Weston Creek and Molonglo Valley districts, as well as the Woden Valley suburbs Farrer, Isaacs, Pearce, Mawson and Phillip. Bean also covers Norfolk Island.
History
The Australian Capital Territory first elected an MP from 1949 onwards, although this MP was only given full voting rights in 1968. Canberra was created in 1974 when the ACT gained a second seat, and the existing electorate was divided into Fraser and Canberra, with Canberra covering the southern half of the city. The ACT gained a third electorate, Namadgi, at the 1996 election, which briefly pushed Canberra into the city centre, before it was abolished in 1998. Canberra has usually been a safe Labor seat, with a few exceptions.
The Liberal Party won the seat at the 1975 and 1977 elections, before it returned to the ALP under Ros Kelly in 1980. Kelly held the seat until 1995, when she resigned from Parliament. The by-election was won by Liberal candidate Brendan Smyth with a 16.2% swing.
The 1996 election saw a redistribution of the territory, with Canberra shifting from a southern electorate to a central electorate. Canberra was won by ACT Senator, and Minister for Trade, Bob McMullan. Smyth ran in the newly-created seat of Namadji, and was defeated by the ALP”s Annette Ellis.
The 1998 election saw the ACT’s seat entitlement return to two, and Canberra returned to the southern parts of the ACT. McMullan moved to Fraser, and sitting Member for Namadgi Annette Ellis was elected in Canberra. Ellis was re-elected in 2001, 2004 and 2007.
In 2010, Ellis retired and the seat was won by Gai Brodtmann. Brodtmann was re-elected in 2013 and 2016.
The redistribution prior to the 2019 election split the ACT into three seats. The name of “Canberra” was applied to a new inner-city electorate taking parts from both existing seats. The new name of “Bean” was applied to a southern seat which had more in common with the former seat of Canberra.
Brodtmann retired at the 2019 election, and Labor’s David Smith won the seat of Bean. Smith had previously served as a Senator for the ACT briefly in 2018-2019 after Katy Gallagher had been forced to resign due to her holding a dual citizenship. Smith was re-elected in 2022.
Assessment
Bean is a safe Labor seat.
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
| David Smith | Labor | 41,060 | 41.7 | +3.6 |
| Jane Hiatt | Liberal | 29,241 | 29.7 | -1.7 |
| Kathryn Jane Savery | Greens | 14,559 | 14.8 | +1.7 |
| Jamie Christie | Independent | 8,023 | 8.2 | -0.1 |
| Sean Conway | United Australia | 2,831 | 2.9 | +0.5 |
| Benjamin Ambard | One Nation | 2,680 | 2.7 | +2.7 |
| Informal | 2,915 | 2.9 | -2.3 |
2022 two-party-preferred result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
| David Smith | Labor | 61,935 | 62.9 | +5.4 |
| Jane Hiatt | Liberal | 36,459 | 37.1 | -5.4 |
Polling places in Bean have been divided into three areas: central, north and south.
Labor won a majority of the two-party-preferred vote in all three areas, ranging from 60.5% in the south to 67.9% in the north.
The Greens came third, with a primary vote ranging from 12.9% in the south to 18.1% in the north, and polled 13.9% of the pre-poll vote.
| Voter group | GRN prim | ALP 2PP | Total votes | % of votes |
| South | 12.9 | 60.5 | 22,121 | 22.5 |
| North | 18.1 | 67.9 | 16,906 | 17.2 |
| Central | 15.7 | 64.6 | 10,086 | 10.3 |
| Pre-poll | 13.9 | 61.7 | 38,062 | 38.7 |
| Other votes | 15.9 | 63.0 | 11,219 | 11.4 |
Election results in Bean at the 2022 federal election
Toggle between two-party-preferred votes and primary votes for Labor, the Liberal Party and the Greens.
I have a hypothesis about teals running in safe Labor seats like Bean.
Some Green voters would vote tactically for the teal because of the teal’s focus on climate change and bread and butter issues like housing or infrastructure. Teal campaigns are generally more active and visible than Green ones especially when Greens normally finish third at best.
Then there are some Liberal voters who would like to unseat Labor but don’t see the Liberals of ever doing so. They might try to shake things up by voting teal. This might not happen in large numbers as Jessie Price is left-leaning and also because of the Liberals’ war against the teals.
Jessie Price’s path depends on her ability to beat the Greens on primary votes and getting their voters’ preferences. An issue for Price is that Greens to Price preference flows may not be disciplined or consistent as Greens voters often have the habit of putting Labor second.
@ Votante
Yes i agree i dont think Green voters are as exicited about getting a Teal elected as they are getting the Libs defeated. Hawthorn at the 2022 state election only 50% of Green voters gave the Teal the second preferences even though HTV recommeded this over Labor. So i dont think Green preferences will be as diciplined as Teal versus Liberal or a classic Liberal/Labor contest.
https://antonygreen.com.au/vic22-election-hawthorn-analysis-of-preferences/
Still it forces labor to divert resources to otherwise safe seats. I can understand them not preferencong the teal in Solomon due to them already being labor greatest challenger and it would easier to beat labor then a teal. In Franklin I imagine the logging and salmon issues mean they don’t want the teal winning there either. So now labor must defend both Fremantle and bean with resources that could be otherwise be used in marginal seats.
Well in hawthorn the labor candidate also had a chance of winning in addition to Pesutto. In bean the liberals are no chance. A marginal seat is different to a safe one.