Bean – Australia 2025

This could potentially be a low-priority target for the Liberals to get them a seat in the ACT, but nevertheless it’s unlikely to fall. However, if the Liberals do ever win a House seat in the ACT it’ll be Bean since it includes the outer suburbs and some small towns near national parks and the ski resorts out in the bush, plus it includes Norfolk Island (the only non-mobile booth (Jervis Bay in Fenner has mobile voting) the Liberals won in an ACT seat in 2022 was the Norfolk Island booth).

@ Nether Portal
This is the most friendly part of the ACT for the Greens but you would need a 1996 style defeat to come even close to winning it. It will fall if there is 1975 style defeat.

@Nimalan this is the least friendly part of the ACT for the Greens. They finished second in Canberra and did better in Fenner than they did in Bean. Did you mean the best for the Liberals, not the Greens?

Anyway, at the 2020 ACT general election, Brindabella (which overlaps with much of Bean) was the only seat where the Liberals did better than Labor.

@ Nether Portal
apologies it was a Typo yes i meant to say it is the most friendly part for the Libs sorry.

Bean was not that friendly for Liberals in 2022. 2PP was 63:37 for Labor. Greens vote 14.8% and a left independent & I mean genuinely left in policy terms of 8.1%.
Note that in Brindabella in 2020 – Liberals 38.4%, Labor 40.7%

@Nether Portal – the booths in Bean that aren’t in “Canberra” are only a small handful of people. Norfolk Island has a bigger influence on the outcome than Tharwa, and they’re both tiny.

John Howard said “looks like Killara, votes like Cessnock” about Canberra. That’s generally taken to mean affluent voters that vote Labor. But I think it’s also the case with other demographics that make up the Liberal base that in the ACT are most populous in Bean, that are more Labor inclined in Canberra. Interestingly Bean has the ACT’s only “no” voting booths, but I’m not sensing a realignment over it, and enough of the electorate was very strongly “yes” at any rate.

@ John
There is still an income gradient in Canberra/ACT and the best areas for the Libs in Canberra are still Yarramulma, Deakin and Forrest but there much weaker for Libs compared to Toorak, Point Piper, Peppermint Grove, Toorak Gardens and Ascot. Clearly how income is earned is often more important than the income gradient.

@Doug you are correct and in fact the Greens 3CP was slightly higher in Bean than in Fenner (Christie absorbed a chunk of the vote). I think Greens are more likely to hit 2nd in Fenner before Bean with Greens doing better among the more solidly Labor demographics lately (and the lower LNP vote bar to clear). I expect Greens to laser focus on Canberra in 2025 though, leaving Pocock to do his thing in the other electorates.

The No voting part of Bean is the suburb of Chisholm. I checked it has a significant below average of University Degree attainment (23% Vs 42% ACT average) and signing percentage of trades. I wonder this is Canberra only “Middle Australia” suburb to the likes of Frankston?

@ Marh
in the ACT, the suburbs of Charnwood, Dunlop and Holt are seen as the more rough suburbs. However, by Melbourne standards they was not be considered bad at all and will be like Scoresby. The southern suburbs back in the 1970s when the Liberals represented this area federally was often referred to as “Nappy Valley”. Perhaps a legacy of this is that it may look more like pre 2000s Australia somewhat more socially conservative, more religious etc with a less diverse population. While the Gunghalin area is more what i refer to as “Tommorow’s Australia with a more diverse population, a high % of people who practice minority religions etc and look like many other growth areas today around Capital Cities.

Who was that chap in the news recently….. Bruce L?
Mover and shaker in act libs?

Tuggeranong is the closest thing Canberra has to “outer suburbs”. It probably wouldn’t have been built on Canberra’s current design principles as it’s quite far from the city and extremely car dependent even by Canberra standards.

Chisholm has a bit of a “bogan” reputation but not necessarily a “rough” one, not that anywhere in Canberra is all that rough. It’s more anglo and Christian than Belconnen and Gungahlin, qnd has an ageing population. It’s shrinking due to empty nesters (the children of Nappy Valley are moving out) and other parts of Canberra are getting infill and densifying in a way Tuggeranong isn’t (outside the town centre, which is actually on the western edge of the area).

I get the general vibe it would be a solidly Liberal voting area in any other city. Not sure I can explain it, it just seems more like Eastern Melbourne or Northwestern Sydney than other parts of those cities.

I am still surprised by the 2020 ACT result in Brindabella. I thought 2-2-1 was possible but I still thought Liberals would beat Labor on primaries.

South of Isabella Drive, uni degree attainment is lower than the Australian average and there’s less cultural and linguistic diversity. The Greens vote is low, UAP and ON votes were high, and “No” voice vote was high, by ACT standards.

There is a Voices of Bean group, but then again, not all Voices groups will field a candidate or will even get traction. If an independent candidate were to be successful, it would have to one running on a “we’ve been taken for granted” platform, rather than a teal or Climate 200 one.

Otherwise, Labor would easily hold this. The Libs may be better off trying to get their Senate spot back.

@ Votante/John
It is difficult to make a Melbourne/ Sydney comparison with the ACT. However, i am think maybe Outer Eastern suburbs around Croydon, Ringwood North or Hughes would be a good comparison in some respects they were largely all mortgage belt areas in the Mid 70s to the the late 80s , generally less diverse fairly affluent yet less educated.

I think the outer eastern suburbs of Melbourne and Berwick is the most correct comparison to Nappy Valley as incomes are still above the national median (but slightly lower than ACT median) although the only difference is Labor performs better there than the Melbourne areas mentioned

Labor have re-preselected sitting MP David Smith for the next election.

Voices for Bean are running a candidate – she has something to work with – 8% of the vote in 2022 went to a local independent with strong support for Labor policies. There is discontent in the electorate over his invisibility. nOt enough I suspect to see him lose but it could prove embarrassing for labor

@DOUGLAS AGREED while the libs cant win they would be better off running dead and directing preferences towards the independent

last time labor only managed 41% of the primary so if they make the 2cp they should easily win off lib grn preferences

This sort of seat would only fall in landslides like a 1975, 1977, 1996 & 2013 style Labor defeat, otherwise it might get close but that’s it. I am aware that on these boundaries on the history of the ttp it wouldn’t have fallen in 1996 or 2013 but, I think the more Labor friendly parts have been moved out so on these new boundaries it would’ve fallen in 1996.

@ Space Fish
In 2013, Ben has already calculated it would have been won by Labor with 7.5% margin still safe I dont know what would be the exact result on 1996 results, there was a seat of Namadgi which had a sitting Liberal member contesting Labor still won and regained the seat. I am not sure what these boundaries would have been in 1996. A few points
1. Tuggerong once known as Nappy Valley is a good Liberal area by ACT standards
2. The Molonglo Valley is rapidly growing no booths only 1 booth so far strong for Labor much better than Tuggerong

*1 booth in the Molonglo Valley

Nimalan,
I am aware that Labor would have held it 2013, I was more referring that such a decisive defeat would give the Liberals a chance as maybe they could spend time here. I don’t think that Liberals really have a shot with any of the seats in the ACT especially like you said above as the population growth as it doesn’t usually favour the Liberals. I was aware that that there was a third seat but, who really knows what the outcome would’ve been as I can’t recall the exact boundaries & like you said above Labor gained the seat back after 1995 by-election loss. I believe it was the last time to date when Labor lost office in the ACT in 1995.

@ Spacefish
I have included a link to an interactive tool where you can see the past boundaries over the years. In 1996, the seat of Namadgi was pretty much only Tuggerong and a part of Woden Valley the northern most suburbs being Mawson, Pearce, Torrens and Kambah. It did not include any of Weston Creek which is better for Labor than the Far South of Canberra. Therefore my guess is that on current boundaries Labor would have won this seat in 1996 better than the result they got in Namadgi in 1996 which was 51.5% ALP. I do agree in a landslide defeat Labor would loose this. However, i think it would need to be worse than 1996 and 2013 it has to be the Whitlam era defeats. What is happening in Canberra is that population is growing faster in the north so the voting power of Tuggergrong, which is slow growing ,is being diluted.

https://pappubahry.com/pseph/aus_stats/?plot=map&year=2013&colour_by=informal&multiple=max&geo_map=1

@ Nimalan,
Thanks for that link, very interesting as Fraser was even closer. I agree you would need a 1975 style defeat the to cut through.

we arent talking landslide we’re talking strategic voting by liberals voters to get the ind into the 2cp labor would lose in a 2cp against the ind

This isn’t out of reach for the Liberals they just need the right leader.

Nether Portal. I think if the Liberals run dead and the teal can make it into the contest perhaps by tactical voting by Liberal voters. Labor would not stand a chance because they would get green preferences likely as well.