Barton – Australia 2025

Labor hold with a big swing away. Linda Burney’s personal vote will be gone. Liberals had a shocker last election and will recover their vote. The Palestine issue could bring down Labor’s vote in various suburbs like Roselands, Belmore, Arncliffe and Turrella.

I hear that Labor is having trouble picking a candidate here because of factionalism.

@Votante depending on who Labor chooses, it could be a big or small swing. If it was say Rose Jackson (minister in the Minns government) for example then it could be a smaller swing as she’s fairly well-known and not really that bad, but if it was Shaoquett Moselmane (former NSW MLC who’s known for being controversial) then I sense a massive swing away from Labor given he’s definitely no perfectionist politically.

I feel like this will remain a Labor seat. The suburbs along the T4 line are becoming more and more dense with apartments with newer Australians, however the eastern side of the seat (Hurstville, Kingsgrove) are also pushing upper middle class now, with house prices now 2m+. The net effect is more apartment renters which tend to vote Labor (most but not all) – Labor retain.

Wombater,
What is a ‘T4 line’?

@watson watch The rail line

The eastern bayside suburbs have been redistributed out. That’s where the expensive, low-density homes and gentrification are. Barton has picked up Kogarah Bay – it has similar demographics. The T4 Line or South Coast Line suburbs are dense with apartments as there are some commercial centres like Rockdale and Hurstville.

@Tommo9. I think there’s a number of name in the mix, most of whom are state MPs. Shaoquett Moselmane would be too controversial and would create headaches.

Wombater,
Thank you.
I’ve now googled it. It is the Illawarra Railway.

@watson watch You are most welcome 🙂

@ Votante
I dont think a Muslim Voters Matter (MVM) candidate will run because i think even on the new boundaries the Muslim % will be less than 20%. By removing Bayside suburbs and Marrickville the Muslim % would have increased but not a % that they can make the 2CP in which case Muslim voters will vote Greens so while there is a primary vote drop probably not much in the 2CP in fact in Kuraby Labor increased it 2CP.

I think the infighting in labor over this seat will damage their margin. Labor retain but probably 6-7%

These boundaries are not winnable for Libs at all so i dont think they will make an effort. The 2013 boundaries were better and included more affluent areas and more of the Greek community.

@nimalan winnable no but the fact labors factions are fighting over the seat might hurt their margin

@ John agree, but not really in any meaningful way. A lot of residents here are more recent immigrants who are probably not engaged enough on Labor internal strike.

Crosby was telling everyone at the Labor Right Xmas function that National exec will split 11/10 in AA’s favour.
This is turning into a massive shitfight for Labor, as Moselmanne has the plurality of branches/member votes- close to but just short of 50%.
Ayoub has the strongest backing of a union in the AWU, Buttigieg would have more but fell out with the ETU but still retains around 30% of branches. Crosby barely nothing but is being propped up by the media and AA is relatively new to the area.
The theory is among branches if anyone other than Moselmanne gets preselected there will be a significant decrease in volunteers, fundraising and election presence.
Head Office will have to spend more money and resources they intended on a safe seat due to an apathetic membership base that will be diverted from marginal and winnable seats.
Burney wanted a person of colour, Albo wants a female. The issue is AA would be better suited in a seat like Reid, Parramatta or Greenway where there is a larger Sri Lankan/Sub-Continental population than Barton.
Barton would be more favourable for Moselmanne being home to a large Muslim community (primarily Lebanese and Bangladeshi)
Libs have nominated as strong a candidate as they could with Dutton being more methodical with the Lib preselection process. Douskou will do well with the Greek community and also helps assuage some issues concerning female Liberal candidacy. She probably has the best CV of all the candidates running

Ashvini Ambihaipahar wins preselection for Federal seat of Barton Via N40/National Exec.
Shaoquette Moselmane has resigned as President of Barton FEC

Just to clarify, Fiona Douskou will be the Liberal candidate for Barton. She’s a recently elected councillor for Bayside Council and was the Liberal candidate for Newtown in 2023 state election.

I don’t think Ash (as Ashvini calls herself) is too much of an outsider, though I note that she ran for Oatley at the last state election and her council ward is in Mortdale, both are just outside of Barton’s boundaries.

For reasons I mentioned in the first post, I still reckon she will cop a swing.

She probably should’ve won Oatley all things considered. I’d expect Shaoquette to covertly suppress his numbers in volunteering which could lead to a Lib upset.
Noting they have won the seat once before

Barton boundaries now are much more pro alp than they were when the liberals last won the seat

Ash was up against a formidable Liberal MP with a strong personal vote in 2023. Came within 1%. I think she was ahead on counting on election night.

There is a large Nepalese community in Barton, but not a large Bangladeshi one. She is ethnically Tamil. I don’t think she’s suited for Parramatta or Greenway as she’s not from either area. Burney got good election results despite very few indigenous people in Barton.

Mick, yes. Barton has lost the more affluent, low-rise bayside suburbs whilst gaining western suburbs like Roselands and Belmore. It’s a lot harder for the Liberals to gain this now.

Votante is correct there is not a large Bangladeshi community in Barton. The Bangladeshi community in Sydney is concentrated in Watson and Macarthur. There is a Nepalese community i am not sure how many will have citizenship as a lot may still be international students unlike the Nepalese community in Bardia who have settled and purchased homes.
It is an interesting question whether Ashvini is suitable for this area due to her ethnic background. Votante is correct there is not a large Tamil community here unlike Greenway, Parramatta or Reid. I live and grew up in Menzies where there is a below Greater Melbourne average of South Asians if i wanted to run for parliament would I be a better fit for Holt or La Trobe where there is a larger population of people who share my heritage even though i have never lived there but i do have relatives.

I wonder which areas are the ones where immigrants have the highest percentages of citizenship. I would say a lot of immigrants on the Gold Coast (where I live) don’t since many are either international students or businesspeople from China and Japan.

As for the Aboriginal population, nowhere in Sydney except the seat of Lindsay has a noticeable Aboriginal community. Something I’ve noticed though is Aboriginal people are younger on average and often have big families hence why in many rural schools there is often one really big Aboriginal family. Take the NT for example, where the median age for people in general is 33 but for Indigenous people it’s only 26. The national median age is 38 but for Indigenous people it’s 24. Plus, Indigenous people have much lower turnout rates. Therefore, the Indigenous vote isn’t as large as the Indigenous population.

@ Nether Portal
I would say suburbs that are often growth areas have high % of immigrants with citizenship these are often areas with single families and families with children. So Harris Park (Parramtta) has a large Indian community it is high density and close to Public transport so probably attracts a lot of international students once they have graduated, got citizenship and ready to start families they often move to areas like The Ponds (Greenway) where there are single familiy homes, a lot of young families. Areas like Barton have high density and to purchase a single family home in this area is hard so many Nepalese people move to areas like Bardia (Werriwa) when they are ready to purchase homes and start families by the time they would have got citizenship.

@Nimalan I wish the census actually asked for whether or not people are citizens. That would be an interesting statistic.

Barton is very diverse with a large Chinese, Greek, Lebanese and Nepalese Communities in the seat.

Votante/Nimalan a simple Google search shows Barton does have one of the highest proportions of Bangladeshi speakers in Sydney, particularly in Arncliffe (where the Al-Zahra Mosque) and Rockdale.
To also note Ashvini is not from the Barton electorate, my understanding is she is from Banks (the overlap with Oatley) where she would’ve struggled to run.
I think this will end poorly for Labor, due to a strong female candidate opposing, the discarding of the popular local candidate who had the plurality of branch support and reticence by some in the Chinese community to vote for someone of South Asian heritage.
Identity politics cuts both ways, as evidenced by Kamala Harris’ defeat and cannot often be adverse to a campaign if viewed as pandering and lacking substance

@ FP
I think the comment “reticence by some in the Chinese Community to vote from someone of South Asian heritage” is a disgusting comment, I am South Asian and i actually grew up an an area that has large Chinese/Southern European communities like Barton does and i am not going to argue further
Secondly,
Bangladesh does not show up in the Top 5 countries of Birth in Arncliffe nor Bengali in the Top 5 languages other than English. There are more Mongolians than Bangladeshis in Arncliffe. The Al Zahra mosque is a Shia mosque built by Lebanese Shia Muslim in the 1980s.

https://abs.gov.au/census/find-census-data/quickstats/2021/SAL10087

Nimalan- I don’t know what you finding the comment disgusting has to do with anything. If you think certain ethnic groups aren’t predisposed to biases both positive and negative then you are highly naive. Such biases, stereotypes and generalisations exist across non-Anglo communities as well as Anglo communities, and even within specific ethnic communities themselves- across religious, tribal and linguistic grounds.
Also, http://bangla-sydney.com/pdf/bd-demographic-profile.pdf
Shows that the former LGAs of both Canterbury and Rockdale, which overlap in various ways across Barton have high proportions of both Bangladeshi speakers and Bangladesh place of birth.
I work with several Bangladeshis who attend the Al-Zahra mosque in Arncliffe and Al Hijarah Mosque in Tempe as well as the Masjid Darul in Wolli Creek and the Masjid Al-Hidayah in Arncliffe. All in the electorate of Barton.
Also from South Eastern Sydney’s Local Health District:

The highest concentration of Bangladeshi people in the Sydney Metropolitan Local Government Areas (LGAs) at the 2006 Census was in Canterbury (2,115) followed by Rockdale (1,205), Botany Bay (1,073) and Campbelltown (1,070).

https://www.seslhd.health.nsw.gov.au/sites/default/files/migration/Multicultural_Health/Publications/docs/EngagingTheBangladeshiCommunityReport.pdf

This number would’ve exponentially grown over the last 2 decades and nearly all areas listed are either in or directly near Barton.
Hopefully the statistics listed weren’t too disgusting

For your reference:
http://bangla-sydney.com/pdf/bd-demographic-profile.pdf
Shows that the former LGAs of both Canterbury and Rockdale, which overlap in various ways across Barton have high proportions of both Bangladeshi speakers and Bangladesh place of birth.
I work with several Bangladeshis who attend the Al-Zahra mosque in Arncliffe and Al Hijarah Mosque in Tempe as well as the Masjid Darul in Wolli Creek and the Masjid Al-Hidayah in Arncliffe. All in the electorate of Barton.
Also from South Eastern Sydney’s Local Health District:

“The highest concentration of Bangladeshi people in the Sydney Metropolitan Local Government Areas (LGAs) at the 2006 Census was in Canterbury (2,115) followed by Rockdale (1,205), Botany Bay (1,073) and Campbelltown (1,070).”

https://www.seslhd.health.nsw.gov.au/sites/default/files/migration/Multicultural_Health/Publications/docs/EngagingTheBangladeshiCommunityReport.pdf

This number would’ve exponentially grown over the last 2 decades and nearly all areas listed are either in or directly near Barton.

The census does ask about citizenship…

Top five ancestries in Barton:
1. Chinese: 19.0%
2. Australian: 12.5%
3. English: 12.5%
4. Greek: 9.6%
5. Lebanese: 6.1%

Top five countries of birth in Barton:
1. China: 9.7%
2. Nepal: 4.7%
3. Greece: 3.0%
4. Lebanon: 2.4%
5. Philippines: 2.0%
* Australia: 45.8%

Top five languages spoken at home in Barton:
1. Mandarin: 9.2%
2. Greek: 7.3%
3. Arabic: 6.3%
4. Cantonese: 6.0%
5. Nepali: 4.7%
* English: 37.1%
* Non-English: 64.6%
* Chinese: 15.2%
* Non-English or Chinese: 49.4%

@Ben Raue oh then why doesn’t the ABS website have that stat?

@ NP
Is there a way to get how many people have Bangladeshi ancestry/speak Bengali in Barton>

i think there is a way like you did for the religion maps

@Nimalan yep. 1.0% of the population of Barton was born in Bangladesh, 1.2% speak Bengali (which is also spoken in parts of India). I can’t find the ancestry but in the file but that should give a rough idea.

So technically yes, there is a larger than average Bangladeshi community in the seat of Barton, but it’s not that significant especially when compared with other ethnic groups such as Chinese, Greeks and Nepalese.

Thanks Nether Portal
Much appreciated, yes there are Indian Bengalis as well Senator Varun Ghosh is Bengali and Hindu.

You may need to use Table Builder or Datapacks to access it but citizenship is definitely a question.

while the Lbs cant win now that the facional war has resulted in a seat claimed by the right being taken by the lefts Ashvini Ambihaipahar. if Shaoquett Moselmane runs as an independent could he win if the vote were to split and the liberals run dead?

I doubt the Liberals welcome a Moselmane victory.
No chance they preferencve him over Labor, imo.
They’re better off trying to win it themselves, not impossible, they won in 2013.

Shaoquett Moselmane might have felt betrayed but if he runs as an independent, it’s likely the Liberals would preference Labor over him. I think he and the Greens could split the third-party vote but both he and the Greens would preference Labor over Liberals.

“Reticence by some in the Chinese community to vote for someone of South Asian heritage.”
Ashvini ran in Oatley in 2023 and her biggest swings to her were in the eastern part, along King Georges Road. This area has a larger ethnic Chinese presence. How much of the swing is attributable to Minns’s personal vote (who grew up in the area and represents the electorate next to Oatley) is a question of its own.

@Gympie they did but it was on more friendly boundaries and it was one of the narrowest victories (<1%) in 2013 which was wiped out in 2016 when all the Liberal areas moved to Banks. On current boundaries, it will be difficult even in a Liberal landslide.

@gympie they won it in a year where they were at the peak of a high tide election in the landslide of 2013 and that was just barely. by about 500 votes with a retiring member. this isnt gonna be a landslide election but the member is retiring so it will be impossible for them to win it atm.

This will be a seat to watch on election night, but I’d still say Labor retain

This seat will not be won by the liberals on current boundaries
This could of course change in the future if Blakehurst Oatley shifted from Banks to.here

The Greens have announced Manal Bahsa, a local community centre Lawyer as their candidate. With the cost of living crisis, Labor’s failure in Gaza, and Labor’s lost incumbency advantage they could make good gains. Especially after winning back Canterbury Ward, and getting a record vote in Bayside.

@Earlbury, I agree that there’s a potential upswing in the Greens vote but I don’t agree with you on the council elections part. In Bayside, the Greens vote fell in all wards that they recontested. They contested in a ward that is outside Barton that they were absent from in 2021 and so it shows as a swing. Their Canterbury Ward result was a retain rather than a win back.

Alp retain probable swing to libs

Was driving through Bexley (around Forest Road) and I believe I have seen my first candidate posters of 2025 so far: two barbershops next to each other had posters for Manal Bahsa (Greens candidate).

@mick obv no lib gain here but the Ind could be a threat. This seat is claimed by labor’s right faction but was given to the left in order to install the first indigenous member into parliament in Linda burney it was meant to revert to the right but Albo used the lefts numbers on the Nat executive to put their own member in instead. Therefore moselamen quit the labor party and may run as an independent if he does he could be a threat to lab with lib prefernces and labor may have to horsetrade.

John I don’t think he has quit the alp