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Liberal hold.
@np
I posted on Maranoa thread for you
Will David Coleman be contesting in 2025? If not there could be a possibility of Labor winning here due to the loss of his personal vote.
@Nimalan thanks, will do.
@SpaceFish I think he’s retiring but I still think the Liberals should hold on.
@SpaceFish If he’s retiring he will need to get a move on with announcing it, it’s my understanding that he was preselected along with all other NSW incumbents about midway through this year.
David Coleman is definitely contesting in 2025, confirmed by insider sources
Then if that’s the case then Liberal hold.
@Wombater interesting, I don’t know why I thought he was retiring. I swear I read somewhere that he was. I guess not.
Anyway, Liberal hold as I said before.
Yes, agree – he is a good candidate
New Boundaries shift a lot of Punchbowl Wiley Park into the seat
Those areas can vote 70%+ labor. Current calc of new Boundaries assume 60%
@Mick Quinlivan – none of Wiley Park was moved into Banks, it’s all still in Watson.
As for Punchbowl, I’d estimate around 60% of it is in Watson.
Boundary follows Canterbury Rd to King Georges Rd This is strong Labor Territory.. to see what is possible look at Mr Dib ‘s vote in the state seat of Bankstown. This is possible in the right circumstances for Labor to win. It would be a better prospect if Mr Coleman were to retire .
@Mick Strongly disagree. There are several factors you have not mentioned:
1. Jihad Dib had a very, very strong personal vote in the community whilst his opposition at the 2023 election (Nathan Taleb, Liberals) did not have the same profile. This led him to win an already safe Labor seat by a huge margin, in an election with a huge statewide swing for Labor anyway. To say it is “possible in the right circumstances for Labor to win” based off his result is not very credible, especially considering the general sentiment of suburban voters going into the election is anti-Labor, due to the cost of living crisis.
2. David Coleman has a very, very strong personal vote from representing the area for over 11 years. As someone who lives in the seat, his office sends monthly updates about the area and he does listening posts/phone canvassing to get a feel of the community. He has the incumbent advantage here, similar to Jihad Dib for Bankstown.
3. Bankstown (state seat) has been won by Labor since inception, unlike Banks, which has turned Liberal since 2013 due to David Coleman (who has deservedly held the seat for 4 elections ever since). The seat turned Liberal because the area has massively gentrified (excluding the north suburbs like Riverwood, Narwee and now Punchbowl/Roselands). The state seat of Bankstown hasn’t. Banks went from a socially conservative Labor electorate into a centre-right electorate, with many fibro houses being knocked down for luxury duplexes for young families to move into. The gentrification is still happening and continues to push the seat further and further into strong Liberal territory – I would argue the trend is so strong that Labor has almost no hopes of winning in an election like 2025 where the momentum is very much against Labor.
4. Admittedly, the redistribution also takes in Punchbowl and Roselands – yet during the state 2023 election, these polling booths that overlap with the new suburbs had the lowest 2PP vote for Labor in the whole state seat of Bankstown (60% in the Roselands booth vs. 81% in the Wiley Park booth). What happened at the state seat of Bankstown isn’t as applicable to Banks when you break it down to polling booth by polling booth, as the “strong Labor Territory” you mentioned isn’t part of Banks. Similarly, you’d also have to consider that the redistribution takes in very Liberal suburbs like Carss Park and Blakehurst too.
5. David Coleman still won in the 2022 election, despite facing a very strong Labor candidate of Asian background (Zhi Soon) in a seat with many voters of Asian ancestry (including myself), during a national swing towards Labor. That says something about his staying power as an MP.
To say that “it would be a better prospect” if David Coleman was to retire is a HUGE misstatement as I have explained thoroughly above. A worse prospect would be for the Liberals to run someone unknown, especially when David has stated his intent to run with a strong personal vote and an undeniable incumbent advantage.
Of course it is a better prospect for Labor if Mr Coleman were not the liberal candidate.
State and federal results do not coincide that is obvious. BUT when one vote is higher than the other it shows what is possible. In the new areas added round Punchbowl/Roselands the alp vote could be 10% higher.
To assume the cost of living crisis will help the liberals only applies if they can
Promise more than Labor. This is not the case .
Prediction – Liberal hold, with increased margin. There have been rumours about David Coleman retiring since 2022 but that didn’t happen last election. Because of the narrow margin, I don’t think he’d be forced out before this election.
David Coleman has solidified a personal vote and as Ben Raue above mentioned, he got 2PP results better than the statewide Liberal 2PP. He does focus on Nimby-type issues like overdevelopment and local roads which are vote winners.
North of the T8 (Airport Line) is quite low in socio-economic status and has a larger population that’s either Muslim and/or of Arab descent so I expect an increased third-party vote and 2PP swing away from Labor due to a backlash on cost of living and the Palestine issue.
Votante,
Would I be correct in assuming you don’t live any where near Banks?
Liberal hold for now but definitely might go Labor in future
john,
Please tell us why.
Do you have some inside information on who will be preselected?
@watson the margin is only 2.6% based on 2022 which was a god year for labor. id say that will go back to the liberals 3-4% this time but it will defientely now be classed as a marginal seat and be targetted by labor at future elections. the same goes for menzies in vic. as far as i know David Coleman is running again
Why will ?
Cost of living crisis
Gaza crisis
Help.the liberals?
Will they promise more
@Mick Quinlivan COL will definitely help the Liberals but Gaza won’t.
Gaza helps the Greens but does nothing to Labor because of preferential voting. If this were the US, UK, France, etc it might see an independent get elected or perhaps even a Liberal if the Liberal vote is static but we don’t have FPTP voting like they do.
Gaza also hurts the Greens because people who aren’t hardcore Greens voters (like voters in the three Greens seats in Brisbane and even in Maiwar, which is an LNP seat on BCC results) are starting to see the Greens as too woke and too radical caring about things like pronouns and excessive reparations and being anti-Israel when the only people who care about those things are woke ecosocialist uni student activists in the inner-city and the only people who are anti-Israel are either pro-Palestinian/Hamas activists or antisemites or both. They vote for the Greens for the environment, not for woke stuff.
This is why I think a pro-Palestinian independent who focuses on local issues (like the ones in the UK) or perhaps a new party (similar to George Galloway’s Workers Party in the UK) would fair much better than the Greens in Muslim areas because lots of them won’t vote Greens because of their wokeism.
Np:
You. missed some of my point.. what.would the .liberals(include nats).offer re cost of living that Labor would not.
You.cannot.just say the other mob are bad so vote for us!
Whenever I’m reading a comment and I see the word “woke”, I generally skip the rest of it, as I can be safe in the knowledge there’s nothing of any intellectual worth to be read.
Woke is a term of derision invented by the liberals and those further right eg.onp
@mick what the liberals are offering is competent economic management and not overspending to bring down inflation. Also people aren’t voting for them they will be voting against Labor. When times are tough and the govt can’t manage the cost of living people will punish the govt for their inability to control the cost of living.
@Mick Apologies. Your comment “It would be a better prospect if Mr Coleman was to retire” was interpreted as referring to the Libs, not Labor.
Votante has described the seat well – the cost of living crisis is affecting a lot of voters here.
@Mick Quinlivan the people who vote based on Gaza will mostly be too short-sighted to see that the Libs will not do more on a foreign war that has nothing to do with Australia. All they want is to show their anger at the sitting government – Labor.
As for the cost of living crisis – Liberal policies encourage businesses to grow. When they grow, the economy does well – meaning Aussies feel less cost of living pressures. Most of Albanese’s financial policies actually put more pressure on small businesses by substantially increasing their business costs (uncontrolled increases in utilities, COGS and wages) – ironically allowing big businesses to grow even further, whilst small businesses could not survive. This meant that a lot of Aussies employed in such businesses found themselves in a financially tough position – and that’s a lot of Aussies!
Cost of living is the kryptonite. Because of the mix of issues at play, an independent focused on cost of living, like Nether Portal mentioned, could do well. Many voters are apathetic or neutral on the Palestine issue or don’t see it as a high priority. However, I don’t think they’d win but at least they give voters, both pro-Palestine and neutral/apathetic voters, another option. Such independents are running in Watson and Blaxland.
People do feel the compunding effects of inflation even though statistically, the CPI is lower than 2 or 3 years ago. Wholesale electricity prices started rising in late 2021 and more than tripled and peaked in the first half of 2022 in NSW and other states. It has since gone down according to the Australian Energy Regulator.
In both US and UK, there were strong anti-incumbent swings despite the falling unemployment and falling inflation in 2024 as incumbents copped the blame for cost of living pressures.