Banks – Australia 2025

Liberal hold.

@np

I posted on Maranoa thread for you

Will David Coleman be contesting in 2025? If not there could be a possibility of Labor winning here due to the loss of his personal vote.

@Nimalan thanks, will do.

@SpaceFish I think he’s retiring but I still think the Liberals should hold on.

@SpaceFish If he’s retiring he will need to get a move on with announcing it, it’s my understanding that he was preselected along with all other NSW incumbents about midway through this year.

David Coleman is definitely contesting in 2025, confirmed by insider sources

Then if that’s the case then Liberal hold.

@Wombater interesting, I don’t know why I thought he was retiring. I swear I read somewhere that he was. I guess not.

Anyway, Liberal hold as I said before.

Yes, agree – he is a good candidate

New Boundaries shift a lot of Punchbowl Wiley Park into the seat
Those areas can vote 70%+ labor. Current calc of new Boundaries assume 60%

@Mick Quinlivan – none of Wiley Park was moved into Banks, it’s all still in Watson.

As for Punchbowl, I’d estimate around 60% of it is in Watson.

Boundary follows Canterbury Rd to King Georges Rd This is strong Labor Territory.. to see what is possible look at Mr Dib ‘s vote in the state seat of Bankstown. This is possible in the right circumstances for Labor to win. It would be a better prospect if Mr Coleman were to retire .

@Mick Strongly disagree. There are several factors you have not mentioned:

1. Jihad Dib had a very, very strong personal vote in the community whilst his opposition at the 2023 election (Nathan Taleb, Liberals) did not have the same profile. This led him to win an already safe Labor seat by a huge margin, in an election with a huge statewide swing for Labor anyway. To say it is “possible in the right circumstances for Labor to win” based off his result is not very credible, especially considering the general sentiment of suburban voters going into the election is anti-Labor, due to the cost of living crisis.
2. David Coleman has a very, very strong personal vote from representing the area for over 11 years. As someone who lives in the seat, his office sends monthly updates about the area and he does listening posts/phone canvassing to get a feel of the community. He has the incumbent advantage here, similar to Jihad Dib for Bankstown.
3. Bankstown (state seat) has been won by Labor since inception, unlike Banks, which has turned Liberal since 2013 due to David Coleman (who has deservedly held the seat for 4 elections ever since). The seat turned Liberal because the area has massively gentrified (excluding the north suburbs like Riverwood, Narwee and now Punchbowl/Roselands). The state seat of Bankstown hasn’t. Banks went from a socially conservative Labor electorate into a centre-right electorate, with many fibro houses being knocked down for luxury duplexes for young families to move into. The gentrification is still happening and continues to push the seat further and further into strong Liberal territory – I would argue the trend is so strong that Labor has almost no hopes of winning in an election like 2025 where the momentum is very much against Labor.
4. Admittedly, the redistribution also takes in Punchbowl and Roselands – yet during the state 2023 election, these polling booths that overlap with the new suburbs had the lowest 2PP vote for Labor in the whole state seat of Bankstown (60% in the Roselands booth vs. 81% in the Wiley Park booth). What happened at the state seat of Bankstown isn’t as applicable to Banks when you break it down to polling booth by polling booth, as the “strong Labor Territory” you mentioned isn’t part of Banks. Similarly, you’d also have to consider that the redistribution takes in very Liberal suburbs like Carss Park and Blakehurst too.
5. David Coleman still won in the 2022 election, despite facing a very strong Labor candidate of Asian background (Zhi Soon) in a seat with many voters of Asian ancestry (including myself), during a national swing towards Labor. That says something about his staying power as an MP.

To say that “it would be a better prospect” if David Coleman was to retire is a HUGE misstatement as I have explained thoroughly above. A worse prospect would be for the Liberals to run someone unknown, especially when David has stated his intent to run with a strong personal vote and an undeniable incumbent advantage.

Of course it is a better prospect for Labor if Mr Coleman were not the liberal candidate.
State and federal results do not coincide that is obvious. BUT when one vote is higher than the other it shows what is possible. In the new areas added round Punchbowl/Roselands the alp vote could be 10% higher.

To assume the cost of living crisis will help the liberals only applies if they can
Promise more than Labor. This is not the case .

Prediction – Liberal hold, with increased margin. There have been rumours about David Coleman retiring since 2022 but that didn’t happen last election. Because of the narrow margin, I don’t think he’d be forced out before this election.

David Coleman has solidified a personal vote and as Ben Raue above mentioned, he got 2PP results better than the statewide Liberal 2PP. He does focus on Nimby-type issues like overdevelopment and local roads which are vote winners.

North of the T8 (Airport Line) is quite low in socio-economic status and has a larger population that’s either Muslim and/or of Arab descent so I expect an increased third-party vote and 2PP swing away from Labor due to a backlash on cost of living and the Palestine issue.

Votante,
Would I be correct in assuming you don’t live any where near Banks?

Liberal hold for now but definitely might go Labor in future

john,
Please tell us why.
Do you have some inside information on who will be preselected?

@watson the margin is only 2.6% based on 2022 which was a god year for labor. id say that will go back to the liberals 3-4% this time but it will defientely now be classed as a marginal seat and be targetted by labor at future elections. the same goes for menzies in vic. as far as i know David Coleman is running again

Why will ?
Cost of living crisis
Gaza crisis
Help.the liberals?
Will they promise more

@Mick Quinlivan COL will definitely help the Liberals but Gaza won’t.

Gaza helps the Greens but does nothing to Labor because of preferential voting. If this were the US, UK, France, etc it might see an independent get elected or perhaps even a Liberal if the Liberal vote is static but we don’t have FPTP voting like they do.

Gaza also hurts the Greens because people who aren’t hardcore Greens voters (like voters in the three Greens seats in Brisbane and even in Maiwar, which is an LNP seat on BCC results) are starting to see the Greens as too woke and too radical caring about things like pronouns and excessive reparations and being anti-Israel when the only people who care about those things are woke ecosocialist uni student activists in the inner-city and the only people who are anti-Israel are either pro-Palestinian/Hamas activists or antisemites or both. They vote for the Greens for the environment, not for woke stuff.

This is why I think a pro-Palestinian independent who focuses on local issues (like the ones in the UK) or perhaps a new party (similar to George Galloway’s Workers Party in the UK) would fair much better than the Greens in Muslim areas because lots of them won’t vote Greens because of their wokeism.

Np:
You. missed some of my point.. what.would the .liberals(include nats).offer re cost of living that Labor would not.
You.cannot.just say the other mob are bad so vote for us!

Whenever I’m reading a comment and I see the word “woke”, I generally skip the rest of it, as I can be safe in the knowledge there’s nothing of any intellectual worth to be read.

Woke is a term of derision invented by the liberals and those further right eg.onp

@mick what the liberals are offering is competent economic management and not overspending to bring down inflation. Also people aren’t voting for them they will be voting against Labor. When times are tough and the govt can’t manage the cost of living people will punish the govt for their inability to control the cost of living.

@Mick Apologies. Your comment “It would be a better prospect if Mr Coleman was to retire” was interpreted as referring to the Libs, not Labor.
Votante has described the seat well – the cost of living crisis is affecting a lot of voters here.

@Mick Quinlivan the people who vote based on Gaza will mostly be too short-sighted to see that the Libs will not do more on a foreign war that has nothing to do with Australia. All they want is to show their anger at the sitting government – Labor.

As for the cost of living crisis – Liberal policies encourage businesses to grow. When they grow, the economy does well – meaning Aussies feel less cost of living pressures. Most of Albanese’s financial policies actually put more pressure on small businesses by substantially increasing their business costs (uncontrolled increases in utilities, COGS and wages) – ironically allowing big businesses to grow even further, whilst small businesses could not survive. This meant that a lot of Aussies employed in such businesses found themselves in a financially tough position – and that’s a lot of Aussies!

Cost of living is the kryptonite. Because of the mix of issues at play, an independent focused on cost of living, like Nether Portal mentioned, could do well. Many voters are apathetic or neutral on the Palestine issue or don’t see it as a high priority. However, I don’t think they’d win but at least they give voters, both pro-Palestine and neutral/apathetic voters, another option. Such independents are running in Watson and Blaxland.

People do feel the compunding effects of inflation even though statistically, the CPI is lower than 2 or 3 years ago. Wholesale electricity prices started rising in late 2021 and more than tripled and peaked in the first half of 2022 in NSW and other states. It has since gone down according to the Australian Energy Regulator.

In both US and UK, there were strong anti-incumbent swings despite the falling unemployment and falling inflation in 2024 as incumbents copped the blame for cost of living pressures.

Labor has preselected Zhi Soon again to be the candidate. He’ll be the second two-time candidate in a row. The last candidate, Chris Gambian, ran for Labor in 2016 and 2019.

This was a Labor seat for over 60 years until 2013, but there were close calls in 1996 and 2010. In 2013, David Coleman picked this up and 2016 was when the Liberal margin beat the statewide 2PP.

Alp candidate repeating his candidacy means he is able to be better known.
Last time the pattern of improvement. Was concentrated more on the Hurstville side hopefully there is more of a swing on the.Revesby side..
Also there is definite room foe improvement in the new Punchbowl/ Roselands area .

Last election, save for Hurstville and Penshurst, there was a dip in both the Labor and Liberal primary votes. In some places, the Liberal 2PP even increased.

I believe the post-pandemic anger really hit Labor’s vote as UAP and Greens increased and ONP and LDP ran and soaked up the anti-establishment vote. Residents endured harsh lockdowns and curfews back in 2020 and 2021 and also had to queue for hours to get covid testing.

@Votante – correct. Coleman actually won every booth west of the Salt Pan Creek. He won decent Labor booths around Revesby and Padstow that likely would have swung to Labor. His personal vote is very strong, and he will hold pretty comfortably until he retires.

It’s massive in comparison to Wendy Lindsay who to my knowledge only won one booth in East Hills south of the M5: Picnic Point High, as well as the Revesby and Padstow EVCs. Massive difference here between her and Coleman.

@James yes, he won them because he is a great MP who bothers to listen and actually implement solutions for the local area e.g. road safety and roundabouts (I live in Banks).

Meanwhile Wendy Lindsay was seen to be a very complacent member – ironic, considering she held the most marginal Liberal seat in state NSW parliament. She never replied to emails, never really did much – especially when Coleman (who would have been so much busier, being an actual Minister/Shadow Minister) constantly shows how hard he works. It was no surprise that she didn’t win again in 2023 – although I lean Liberal, I was glad to see Kylie Wilkinson win, as she actually bothered to listen to us and implemented a school bus route to Menai from Padstow. She did in 1 month what Wendy Lindsay couldn’t do in 4 years – harsh but true. Being a Liberal supporter myself is no excuse for complacency.

@Wombat – 100% correct. I just remember seeing the images at the polling places in East Hills of ‘Wendy Lindsay delivered a new Service NSW centre at Revesby’ copypasted everywhere. Nothing else. Milking one achievement is most definitely complacency. Definitely would say that Wilkinson won because of that.

I would say the Liberals would regain in 2027 but if Wilkinson is popular she could buck the trend. Either way she’s on a tight margin and the swing would be enough to tip this seat.

If you used state results from East Hills and Oatley and part of Bankstown and Kogarah then Banks would be a Labor seat. The Liberals marginally held onto Oatley at the state election.

The Labor candidate is:

https://www.nswlabor.org.au/zhi_soon

Margin 2% most likely Coleman retains.
Could be swing to labor

@ Mick I see Labor supporters can not read polls. Coleman is popular and will get a swing to him 100%

Not 100% as a swing but 100% chance there will be a swing to him

@Mick It will not swing to Labor at ALL, it will swing to Coleman. If Labor could not grab it from Coleman in the landslide 2022 election, they will certainly not grab it from him now when his personal vote has only INCREASED.
Sportsbet isn’t even opening bets for Banks because of how obvious the outcome is. It is one thing to be a Labor supporter, and another thing to be completely incognisant of political reality.

@Damo a 100% swing – made me chuckle. Glad you made a clarifying comment even though it was somewhat clear what you meant

I said Coleman most likely to retain but with a swing to Labor. This is based on staying roughly static in Hurstville side
Improve in areas gained from Watson
Round Punchbowl and performing better
In the East Hills side of the electorate.
We will see.

Personal vote does not automatically increase with extended incumbancy

A swing to Labor on a tenuous Hurstville theory seems a bit wild and one eyed.

Swings Coleman
+3. 2013
-1.3. 2016
+ 4.8 2019
-3. . .2022

I point out that polls only list a global figure eg 51% lib 49% alp.
Seats can vary from this even in the same state..
Seat polls are notoriously unreliable.
I do not have access to any internal party polls for Banks.
Does any one here have internal liberal party polling for Banks?
If so care to share here?
We can make guesses election day will show?

It’s funny, ‘personal vote’ seems to be a thing that only exists for LNP members if they are retiring according to certain posters on this site.

Coleman likely wouldn’t have been promoted if he was in trouble here, he’ll get a handy swing to him and take this seat off the map for at least a few cycles

I don’t expect Coleman to lose.
But if you look at the figures since his election. Apart from 2019 ( 6%) his vote margin approx 2 to 3%. Still in that range on new boundaries 2.6%. What is his personal vote?

A 3% swing against in what was then an electorate with one of the highest concentrations of Chinese speakers in an election where the Liberals were lashed elsewhere by that demographic and where the nationwide swing was 3.6% suggests a half decent personal vote

@Mick there will not be a swing to Labor this time. I can guarantee you that much. I live in the seat and CoL is hitting us all hard here.

Coleman is insanely popular and has shown himself to be effective, a quiet achiever and a good listener.
The Hurstville side of Banks swung against the Liberals in 2022 (albeit less than other Chinese speaking seats as mentioned above) because of the anti China sentiment pushed by the ScoMo government. It has no room to swing further to Labor, and will more likely swing to the Liberals due to them likely not seeing an immediate threat to their existence under Dutton.

As multiple commenters have stated multiple times, the East Hills side continues to prove itself becoming more and more Liberal with every election. In 2022, despite the swing against Coleman, his 2PP swing INCREASED in most polling booths in the East Hills side, unlike the eastern part of Banks. The area is gentrifying, becoming more affluent (slowly growing out of its working class history which would’ve been strongly Labor) and Coleman is increasing his 2PP swing at every single election since 2016. Increasing, not decreasing.

Will he have a tougher time with the new areas gained from Watson? Yes. But he also gained affluent Blakehurst and Carss Park from Cook, with a net margin change of -0.6% before considering a) East Hills side increasing its Liberal vote due to gentrification b) the eastern part of the seat swinging back to its natural inclination of voting for Liberals and c) CoL crisis hitting many families, meaning Banks would likely follow the expected nationwide swing towards the Coalition, against Labor

I don’t think your comments have any grounding in actual poll statistics, nor do you understand the nuances of the East Hills side of the seat. We will see.