LIB 2.6%
Incumbent MP
David Coleman, since 2013.
Geography
Southern Sydney. Banks covers large parts of the St George area and neighbouring suburbs. It includes a majority of the Georges River council area and south-western parts of the Canterbury-Bankstown council area. Key suburbs include East Hills, Panania, Padstow, Picnic Point, Revesby, Mortdale, Peakhurst, Penshurst, Blakehurst, Carss Park, Kyle Bay and Oatley.
Redistribution
Banks expanded north, taking in Milperra from Blaxland and parts of Punchbowl and Roselands from Watson. Banks also took in Blakehurst, Carss Park and Kyle Bay from Cook and lost Allawah and Carlton to Barton. These changes cut the Liberal margin from 3.2% to 2.6%.
History
Banks was created for the 1949 election, and was held by Labor continuously until 2013.
The seat was first won in 1949 by Labor candidate Dominic Costa. Costa held the seat for twenty years, always as a member of the opposition, retiring in 1969.
Vince Martin was elected in 1969, and held the seat until he was defeated for preselection in 1980 by John Mountford. Mountford held the seat until his retirement in 1990.
In 1990, Banks was won by Labor candidate Daryl Melham. Melham held the seat for over two decades, serving in the Opposition shadow ministry from 1996 to 1998 and again from 2001 to 2004. Successive swings against the ALP wore his margin down to 1.06% in 2004, although a favourable redistribution before the 2007 election, combined with a swing of almost 8%, made the seat much safer.
Daryl Melham narrowly held on in 2010 despite a 9% swing, and in 2013 he lost to Liberal candidate David Coleman with a further 3.3% swing. Coleman has been re-elected three times.
- Allan Taruste (Trumpet of Patriots)
- Todd Nicol (One Nation)
- Phillip Pearce (Democrats)
- Marika Momircevski (Libertarian)
- Natalie Hanna (Greens)
- Zhi Soon (Labor)
- David Coleman (Liberal)
- John Coyne (Independent)
Assessment
Banks is a marginal seat, but has trended towards the Liberal Party over the last two decades. The seat was Labor-held throughout the entire Howard government, and generally voted to the left of New South Wales until 2013. At the 2019 and 2022, the Liberal two-party-preferred vote was substantially higher in Banks than across the state. A strong Labor result could see this seat flipping, but otherwise it will likely stay with the Liberals.
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing | Redist |
| David Coleman | Liberal | 41,622 | 45.2 | -5.7 | 44.6 |
| Zhi Soon | Labor | 32,459 | 35.3 | -1.1 | 35.8 |
| Natalie Hanna | Greens | 8,063 | 8.8 | +2.9 | 8.6 |
| Marika Momircevski | United Australia | 5,048 | 5.5 | +3.3 | 5.6 |
| Malcolm Heffernan | One Nation | 2,628 | 2.9 | +2.9 | 3.3 |
| Elouise Ivy Cocker | Liberal Democrats | 1,264 | 1.4 | +1.4 | 1.2 |
| Steve Khouw | Independent | 961 | 1.0 | +1.0 | 0.9 |
| Informal | 6,550 | 6.6 | -0.6 |
2022 two-party-preferred result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing | Redist |
| David Coleman | Liberal | 48,969 | 53.2 | -3.1 | 52.6 |
| Zhi Soon | Labor | 43,076 | 46.8 | +3.1 | 47.4 |
Polling places in Banks have been divided into three parts: central, east and west. The west covers the former Bankstown council area, while the other two cover the Georges River council area and the small part of the former Canterbury council area.
The Liberal Party won a majority of the two-party-preferred vote in all three areas, ranging from 50.6% in the centre to 55.4% in the east.
| Voter group | GRN prim | LIB 2PP | Total votes | % of votes |
| Central | 8.6 | 50.6 | 20,491 | 20.7 |
| West | 8.2 | 54.7 | 19,588 | 19.8 |
| East | 9.4 | 55.4 | 15,942 | 16.1 |
| Pre-poll | 7.7 | 51.6 | 27,171 | 27.4 |
| Other votes | 9.9 | 51.7 | 15,898 | 16.0 |
Election results in Banks at the 2022 federal election
Toggle between two-party-preferred votes and primary votes for the Liberal Party, Labor and the Greens.
Different matters. Roger cook is far more popular then Albo too.
Libs will gain the seats I stated in WA. And in Nat and in tas. The libs will never gain a seat in act unless under extreme circumstances. QLD is a bit hard to read. But atm status quo. And as both Sturt and booth y could flip. There gains are gonna mainly come in vic and nsw anyway.
Sports bet
Here from 16/1 to 9/1 to 6.5/ 1 for Labor
Hope this reflects something
Noticed that movement too Mick. I think it’s a tough ask for Labor to win here given the changing demographics, but the X-factor could be general global and economic uncertainty driving voters to the safety/stability of the incumbent government.
Margin 2.6% from my knowledge living a little past the other side of Canterbury Rd
This area between Canterbury Rd and King Georges Rd can generate a stronger alp vote.
Coleman overall is seen as better than the liberal party…. which makes it harder to win.
Maybe just maybe Dutton has poisoned the well just enough?????
Odds on sportsbet shortened to
4.25/1
Interesting, I think that’s a sign of the shift to Labor in the polls and theoretically slender margin rather than anything particularly local.
Zhi Soon would be a fantastic MP and has deep roots in the area having grown up there (which can’t be said for Coleman).
Agree Southsider
If this in play so is Hughes
The Labor Party did quite well in overlaying state seats in 2023, but those results aren’t as relevant anymore. Albo never campaigned in this seat in 2022 because he got COVID however he’s hasn’t gone to Banks yet again – which may be a sign that Labor isn’t hedging its bets in Banks. I think realistically this seat could only come into play if Labor continues to rise in Opinion polls.
Labor didn’t announce Zhi Soon until February I believe. It’s a bit late but yes, you’re all right in that the polling/odds started improving for Labor recently.
This is the only HoR contest with a Democrats candidate (if I’m not mistaken).
i agree Banks is a bit of a strech if there was a by-election during the Honeymoon period i think Labor would have won it like they did in Aston. The waterfront areas are now strong Liberal suburbs but the more inland suburbs are still winnable for Labor. If interest rates started falling say before Xmas and there was a better economy then Banks, Bonner would be target seats.
This is the sort of seat which could come into play if the Labor national 2PP vote gets up into the 53-54 range, which looks a lot more possible now than it did a few weeks ago.
What is the State level 2PP in NSW?
Bludgertrack has it as 51.9 (exactly the same as its national 2PP), which would be a 0.5 swing to Labor from 2022. I can’t see any reason to expect a Banks swing to differ much from the state average.
The state 2PP is going to be different thanks to OPV. Taking the primary votes and calculating preference flows based on those primaries probably gets Labor an extra percent or two.
I meant the state component of federal polls.
Comparing state versus federal figures
Oatley snd East Hills make up.a lot of this seat. Oakley down the wire libs just retained by the libs. ALP won East Hills is marginal by a couple of percent. This seat would be alp held on those figures
Yes i meant the state component of the Federal polls. I still expect there to be an Anti-Labor swing in mortgage belt areas like Werriwa, Hume and parts of Paterson so that means there will be a bigger than a 0.5% swing to Labor in many seats and potentially Banks. Banks is not mortgage belt and more white collar and diverse so not reallt where Dutton plays the best
Nimalan, would that make Banks the southern Sydney equivalent of Bennelong district? I know both are considered Liberal leaning swing seats, consisting of established and fairly affluent suburbs.
I am not sure if Banks has the same concentration of ethnic minority voters (those of Asian background) when compared to Bennelong.
@ Yon An
I think there are some comparisons to Bennelong but some differences as well. Both have large East Asian communities although Bennelong and Reid have Korean in addition to the Chinese community while Banks is only Chinese. Banks also has a large Greek community especially closer to the Waterfront while Bennelong does not really have Greeks but as an Armenian community as well. Bennelong has some Muslims on the poorer northern Fringe which is a spillover of Watson/Blaxland which is not there in Bennelong. Banks is less affluent than Bennelong as it still has poorer areas inland such as Riverwood while Bennelong is mostly middle class and now has Elite areas like Hunters Hill. While i would not describe any part of Banks as Elite but areas like Kyle Bay, Oatley, Lugarno are Upper Middle Class.
@Nimalan well said.
Banks has a very strong Greek/Italian community in the eastern part of the seat (i.e. Carss Park, Blakehurst) which Bennelong lacks. As you mentioned, Banks also consists of some of the poorer suburbs which are Labor strongholds. However, the majority of the seat is somewhat similar to Bennelong, compared to other seats. I can’t think of another Sydney seat that would be as similar in demographics and feel.
@ Wombater
I think there are some comparisons for Banks with Reid. Reid also has a large East Asian community but has a very strong Italian community along the Waterfont. It has some traditional Labor strongholds like Silverwater and Lidcombe. The watefront areas in both Banks/Reid have trended Liberal at both levels of government. The 2013 version of Barton is also also interesting when it hit the Georges River. IMHO, in the 2013 election Reid, Banks and Barton were the prized Liberal wins just like Hughes and Lindsay were in 1996. I would attribute part of that also to increased affluence in Italian/Greek communities who have built up intergenerational wealth.
@Nimalan
I actually never considered the comparison with Reid. I think it’s because Reid has much higher density living in suburbs like Burwood, Rhodes and Wentworth Point, which Banks doesn’t really have (Hurstville is not that apartment heavy compared to the areas in Reid). Also interestingly, I find that the “type” of Chinese voter is very different in Banks and Reid – Banks tends to have the more family-oriented Chinese voter with intentions to assimilate into Australian culture, whereas most of the Chinese population in Reid is first-generation, very young, and very closely tied to China/Chinese social media etc.
Just my thoughts I guess – interesting that Barton and Reid swung back to Labor, but Banks didn’t. I think the higher density areas were the reason why, as they tend to attract Labor-leaning voters, whereas Banks was insulated by a lower-density demographic that would lean Liberal.
@ Wombater
Good point about the Higher density living. Another comparision in Melbourne would be between Doncaster and Box Hill. Both areas have large Chinese communiies but my experience growing up in Menzies is that ethnic communities there tend to assimilate more. I would also say that is the difference between an South Asian voter in Wentworthville and one that lives say in The Ponds/Kellyville Ridge etc.
@Nimalan great points. Very accurate insights indeed
Overlaying the state election results the seat would clearly be thought as lost for the liberals. Overlaying the Council results is a bit different. Strong primary vote on the Bankstown side of the electorate. Harder to tell how they will go in the Georges River side due to no Liberal vote in certain wards (nomination blunder etc…) minimal skulduggery afoot, highly likely lib retain.
Potential s44 concerns re: Momircevski (Libertarian) (Macedonian), Hanna (Green) (British), Coyne (British).
All potentially dual citizens by descent with steps seemingly not taken to renounce according to the disclosure documents on the AEC website.
Labor has the donkey vote here & it may be enough if the local ALP has worked hard enough. Voters know that Coleman lives in Cronulla but it hasn’t troubled them in the past. If LNP go below 50 seats expect Coleman to leave mid term? 15 years is enough?
Sportsbet has re-priced a heap of seats. Labor now in to $3.50 in Banks.
here and hughes are now interesting
Albanese visted the seat today went to Padstow and was heckled by Fatima Payman’s candidate on Palestine.
If Banks is in play, I’d say Menzies would be so too.
@ dan m
Casey Briggs said that both parties think Menzies is play
The PM did a blitz of marginal seats in Sydney including Bennelong and Fowler. Regarding Banks, I get that Labor is mostly sandbagging seats, save for a few like Fowler. I would’ve been more bullish on Labor if they had preselected several months earlier. They might as well have since it’s the same candidate as last time (assuming he was waiting for a tap on the shoulder all this time).