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@ Ben,
For the booth results you’ve put the 2022 results twice.
Also a bunch of the pages are doing error 404.
Thanks SpaceFish, you caught a bug that affected Cook and Dunkley too. Fixed now.
Yes this is a work in progress, I’m gradually adding the maps and publishing the guides today. If you check the Discord I’m giving updates there about where I’m up to. Alphabetically I’m currently up to Calwell.
Liberal gain
Too early to say who will win as Labor have been campaigning really hard here and Mary Doyle has been everywhere.
The libs seem to be ahead based on current polling. It only went labor just when labor was at it height of its honeymoon and the libs had mahor issues can’t see them holding.
@ Darth Vader,
Usually I would agree however, Labor appear to be everywhere whereby the Liberals have basically been invisible. Not a single bit of advertising as of yet whereby Labor has sent a bit surprisingly. I am personally not prepared to write Labor off yet as they wiling to put up a fight here.
“seem willing”
Labor may put their efforts into Aston and Chisholm and basically let Menzies and Deakin go. In 2013, it was pretty obvious in Deakin – then Labor held – that they were trying to save the furniture elsewhere.
Redistributed,
Good point, I have friends that live in both seats and say Labor has been invisible. I do believe that Labor still hasn’t preselected candidates for either seat.
@SpaceFish – coincidentally yesterday, Labor preselected it’s candidates for Menzies and Deakin.
Matt Gregg – Deakin
Gabriel Ng – Menzies
@spacefish ive seen the polling for the seat and its looking good for the libs labor were barely able to win it at byelection by a small margin due to a multitude of factors
1. Labor was at the peak of its honeymoon
2. loss of a popular members personal vote
3. parachuted captains pick of a candidate
4. dutton hadnt found his footing
5. chinese media influencing chinese voters to vote labor instead of liberal
6. liberals on the back foot after election loss scomo effect still happening
since then several things have changed
1. albo and labor have tanked their vote in victoria state govt unpopular as ever so albo will get punished for their problems
2. good local liberal candidate
3. dutton has began reading the pulse of middle australia while albo continues to make blunder after blunder
4. interest rates and CoL wil be central here.
5. i think the chinese community willcome back after the rhetoric has died down a bit.
6. no scomo and the liberals are back on the court with a full team
Some interesting notes to add here, while Labor has been campaigning really hard here with door knocking one weekend about 200 houses (might have heard that wrong but 99% sure I heard that correctly) with the Prime Minster visiting on a few occasions. The Liberals have had Peter Dutton here on a few times and Tony Abbott has visited on multiple occasions along with other Liberal shadow minsters. Peta Credlin was even here at some fundraiser event, it appears that the Liberal right really want Manny Cicchiello to win. I am personally surprised the amount of effort from both sides particularly from Labor.
@spacefish from what im hearing labro dont exect to hold this
3% margin in.alp better times.
Prev mp Mr Tudge had no personal vote
Think he went to the Sophie Mirabella school of electoral success. On that basis the new liberal candidate would be assumed to fare better.
But still hope Mr Tudge has killed the seat for the liberals.
Mick
Alan Tudge built up his majority ate every election from when he was first elected through to 2019. The revelations of is personal dalliances got in the way in 2022 and cast him in a bad light and basically destroyed his career. Not quite in the Sophie class.
Mick. Tudges personal vote is what held this seat for libs in 2022. Variety of factors lost it at the by election. Easy lib pickup this time.
Word on the ground has that Mary is being well received and while voters are upset with the cost of living Dutton doesn’t appear to be that well liked weather or not this will translate into a Labor victory here I am not sure at the moment.
@SpaceFish If it was a few months ago I would’ve said Mary Doyle is gonna be toast. But given that Doyle’s had 2 years to establish herself and isn’t an invisible MP at all, I could see her holding on with a sophomore swing towards her, but the margin could be tight, probably something like 51-49 2PP.
@Tommo9,
Whoever wins here won’t win comfortably. Manny Cicchiello has been invisible which is surprising as he is on long service which you would expect him to be putting more effort in whereas Mary Doyle has been putting in the hard yards with her door knocking almost everyday and she even has the backing of union.
Liberals held this seat in 2022 with Tudge already embroiled in scandal and the Labor brand much stronger in Victoria, if Labor hang on here I don’t think they are losing seats anywhere basically.
I wonder if a possible scenario could occur where let’s say Labor retains government (still more likely minority atm)….and they hold Aston, but lose Chisholm. Seeing some of the comments in the Chisholm thread regarding the local MP that she’s not that visible – both seats are on similar margins post-redistribution after all, so assuming an anti-Labor swing in both, a good local member will be key to whether they hold the seat or lose it.
@WL March 18, 2025 at 11:24 pm
I think the main deciding factor in whether Labor will be able to retain some key seats this election is their candidate quality. That’s why I’ve seen people think Labor is competitive in seats like Tangney and Robertson, retain Macarthur, Greenway and Eden-Monaro whilst dropping the ball in places like Chisholm (and Bennelong, but idk how people there view him besides vague notions from Labor supporters that he’s liked)
But this also leads to another question: how strong can an MP’s personal vote be to overcome swings against them? Even if Mary Doyle is popular, could her personal vote be enough for her to hold Aston despite what seems to be a 5% swing against Labor in VIC and general sentiment that she’s going to automatically lose to the Liberals?