Aston – Australia 2025

@ Ben,
For the booth results you’ve put the 2022 results twice.

Also a bunch of the pages are doing error 404.

Thanks SpaceFish, you caught a bug that affected Cook and Dunkley too. Fixed now.

Yes this is a work in progress, I’m gradually adding the maps and publishing the guides today. If you check the Discord I’m giving updates there about where I’m up to. Alphabetically I’m currently up to Calwell.

Liberal gain

Too early to say who will win as Labor have been campaigning really hard here and Mary Doyle has been everywhere.

The libs seem to be ahead based on current polling. It only went labor just when labor was at it height of its honeymoon and the libs had mahor issues can’t see them holding.

@ Darth Vader,
Usually I would agree however, Labor appear to be everywhere whereby the Liberals have basically been invisible. Not a single bit of advertising as of yet whereby Labor has sent a bit surprisingly. I am personally not prepared to write Labor off yet as they wiling to put up a fight here.

“seem willing”

Labor may put their efforts into Aston and Chisholm and basically let Menzies and Deakin go. In 2013, it was pretty obvious in Deakin – then Labor held – that they were trying to save the furniture elsewhere.

Redistributed,
Good point, I have friends that live in both seats and say Labor has been invisible. I do believe that Labor still hasn’t preselected candidates for either seat.

@SpaceFish – coincidentally yesterday, Labor preselected it’s candidates for Menzies and Deakin.

Matt Gregg – Deakin
Gabriel Ng – Menzies

@spacefish ive seen the polling for the seat and its looking good for the libs labor were barely able to win it at byelection by a small margin due to a multitude of factors
1. Labor was at the peak of its honeymoon
2. loss of a popular members personal vote
3. parachuted captains pick of a candidate
4. dutton hadnt found his footing
5. chinese media influencing chinese voters to vote labor instead of liberal
6. liberals on the back foot after election loss scomo effect still happening

since then several things have changed
1. albo and labor have tanked their vote in victoria state govt unpopular as ever so albo will get punished for their problems
2. good local liberal candidate
3. dutton has began reading the pulse of middle australia while albo continues to make blunder after blunder
4. interest rates and CoL wil be central here.
5. i think the chinese community willcome back after the rhetoric has died down a bit.
6. no scomo and the liberals are back on the court with a full team

Some interesting notes to add here, while Labor has been campaigning really hard here with door knocking one weekend about 200 houses (might have heard that wrong but 99% sure I heard that correctly) with the Prime Minster visiting on a few occasions. The Liberals have had Peter Dutton here on a few times and Tony Abbott has visited on multiple occasions along with other Liberal shadow minsters. Peta Credlin was even here at some fundraiser event, it appears that the Liberal right really want Manny Cicchiello to win. I am personally surprised the amount of effort from both sides particularly from Labor.

@spacefish from what im hearing labro dont exect to hold this

3% margin in.alp better times.
Prev mp Mr Tudge had no personal vote
Think he went to the Sophie Mirabella school of electoral success. On that basis the new liberal candidate would be assumed to fare better.
But still hope Mr Tudge has killed the seat for the liberals.

Mick
Alan Tudge built up his majority ate every election from when he was first elected through to 2019. The revelations of is personal dalliances got in the way in 2022 and cast him in a bad light and basically destroyed his career. Not quite in the Sophie class.

Mick. Tudges personal vote is what held this seat for libs in 2022. Variety of factors lost it at the by election. Easy lib pickup this time.

Word on the ground has that Mary is being well received and while voters are upset with the cost of living Dutton doesn’t appear to be that well liked weather or not this will translate into a Labor victory here I am not sure at the moment.

@SpaceFish If it was a few months ago I would’ve said Mary Doyle is gonna be toast. But given that Doyle’s had 2 years to establish herself and isn’t an invisible MP at all, I could see her holding on with a sophomore swing towards her, but the margin could be tight, probably something like 51-49 2PP.

@Tommo9,
Whoever wins here won’t win comfortably. Manny Cicchiello has been invisible which is surprising as he is on long service which you would expect him to be putting more effort in whereas Mary Doyle has been putting in the hard yards with her door knocking almost everyday and she even has the backing of union.

Liberals held this seat in 2022 with Tudge already embroiled in scandal and the Labor brand much stronger in Victoria, if Labor hang on here I don’t think they are losing seats anywhere basically.

I wonder if a possible scenario could occur where let’s say Labor retains government (still more likely minority atm)….and they hold Aston, but lose Chisholm. Seeing some of the comments in the Chisholm thread regarding the local MP that she’s not that visible – both seats are on similar margins post-redistribution after all, so assuming an anti-Labor swing in both, a good local member will be key to whether they hold the seat or lose it.

@WL March 18, 2025 at 11:24 pm
I think the main deciding factor in whether Labor will be able to retain some key seats this election is their candidate quality. That’s why I’ve seen people think Labor is competitive in seats like Tangney and Robertson, retain Macarthur, Greenway and Eden-Monaro whilst dropping the ball in places like Chisholm (and Bennelong, but idk how people there view him besides vague notions from Labor supporters that he’s liked)

But this also leads to another question: how strong can an MP’s personal vote be to overcome swings against them? Even if Mary Doyle is popular, could her personal vote be enough for her to hold Aston despite what seems to be a 5% swing against Labor in VIC and general sentiment that she’s going to automatically lose to the Liberals?

To be honest, I think comments on this site tend to overrate the importance of MPs for urban marginal seats. Not that it can’t be a factor but it’s unlikely to be the decisive factor in a Federal election, as opposed to the views of the leaders or parties. I particularly don’t rate anecdotes about the visibility of the MP.

As Aston was won during a by-election when Labor was polling very well, it should probably be treated as having a starting margin halfway between the 2022 result and the current margin. IE, notional Liberal and requiring a Labor performance superior to 2022 for a retain. I don’t see a likely scenario where this is retained and a Labor-held seat in Eastern Melbourne is lost – rather, it’s more likely that Menzies and Deakin are at risk should this be a feasible retain.

I agree Adda. I recall a lot of UK Labour members who lost in 2019 who said when doo knocking they got a lot of “You’re great, but I can’t stand that Corbyn bloke’. I reckon a lot of Libs got that last time too re ScoMo.

@spacefish agreed but Libs will win this seat in my opinion because the libs had a long list of factors working against them at the by election that labor took advantage of and they simply wont work this time. Unions backing a Labor candidate is just as common as finding a fish in water.

2023 by election factors
a) loss of a long term sitting members personal vote
b) the china issue
c) parachuted captains picked candidate (partly because Dutton wanted a woman)
d) Dutton was a unknown factor who labor was prtraying as voldemort effectively
e) scomo was still around
f) labor was up in the polls in its honeymoon
g) dan andrews was stil ruling victoria with an iron fist

this time around the following factors are around
a) Cost of Living
b) Cost of Living
c) Cost of Living
d) albo ad labor are on the nose in victoria partly because of the state govt
e) this is mortgage belt seat
f) Dutton is a known factor and theyve already thrown all the mud at the libs at the byelection
g) while they still oppose the actions of the chinese govt they have dialled down the rhetoric and its clearly not because they are chinese.

especially when that candidate used to be a union leader….

Another liberal party lock according to john

Not really sure why being a former union leader would mean a loss of votes. If one voted due to that, their vote was most likely already not in favour of Labor back then. Yes there were other factors as well back then, but former union leader shouldn’t come into the picture now if it didn’t then.

@Wl its not im just stating unions supporting a former union leader running for labor isnt exactly breaking news

Historically, seats gained in by-elections usually revert to their former status at the next general election – Rob Oakeshott is the only federal MP in the last 30 years to successfully defend a by-election gain at the following general election (and the last one in a Labor-Coalition contest was Lowe in 1983). This one’s a bit different as it’s a seat gained rather than lost by an incumbent government, but I’d still consider the 2022 general election result a more realistic reflection of the ‘starting position’ for 2025 than the by-election result.

Liberal Party will regain this seat.

Labor threw the kitchen sink at it during a byelection – they won’t have that luxury this time. Plus the Liberal brand in 2023 was majorly on the nose due to Alan Tudge’s “performance” in the previous term. Area’s still very blue, and decades long voting habits will prevail now that Tudge is a distant memory.

Mark Dreyfus, Clare O’Neil, Anika Wells and Lisa Darmanin with some of them helping with door knocking. I’m not giving them this just surprised that they’re putting this sort of fight up.

Victoria is a battleground state, particularly metro Melbourne.

This is Labor’s 2nd most marginal seat. Labor sees an imminent big swing in Victoria but to be fair, this was their best state last election after WA and Andrews and Albanese were popular three years back.

People voted out the lib after Tudge had er retired. Maybe this could be the vic Tangney should be liberal but ……..

As a voter/resident in the electorate, Mary Doyle has been utterly invisible since being elected and, to be honest, a bit of a disappointment. Tudge had many faults but he was always accessible and out and about. The current Liberal candidate is a local too….he should win this back seat easily

Someone on ABC (I think it was PK) said Dutton’s fuel-excise cut was aimed at appealing to outer-suburban voters, more often than not, have poorer public transport options. This policy could be a winner in voters’ minds.

The excise cut might look good at first because you’ll notice an instantaneous drop in bowser prices. However, it is less effective if you just drive on weekends, use public transport, drive an EV or hybrid or bike or walk. It’ll also encourage people to switch to driving and create more demand.

Just briefly off topic for a bit. When people talk about MPs being invisible or being very popular, what do they mean by that? I see a lot of comments about Liberal/Labor MPs being popular in their electorates or being invisible to the point that they’re so bad, but I’m not sure what they’re referring to. Is not attending community events, reaching out to constituents, speaking on behalf of constituents, providing funding for the electorate, and being involved generally speaking part of being ‘visible’? If that was the case then to their credits most of the MPs I’ve seen across Labor/Liberal have been out and about effectively throughout their term, hardly what I’d call invisible.

Unless if there’s something else differentiating them, because I’ve seen some comments about one MP being well received and popular but another referring to the said MP as invisible. Kind of confusing.

Thanks.

Tommo, often just partisan opinion or you see what is in your own electorate and you think it’s more or less than typical due to your own visibility of it.

There are examples of incredibly hard working MPs that seem to be everywhere all the time. Or ones who turn up to nothing. But most are between these extremes and turn up to a standard amount of things.

@LNPinsider Thanks for that insight. Kind of what I was expecting and indeed majority of MPs fall inbetween. It’s hard to find someone who was truly ‘invisible’ in parliament, unless if you’re looking at people like Ralph Babet etc.

@Tommo9 I live in Bean, our local member (David Smith, Labor) is practically invisible. You never hear anything about him except for when he sends out the generic calendars every year or you drive past his office. For all I know, he hasn’t done a single thing for our electorate. Trust me, it’s not cool (I want to vote Labor but I don’t want to vote for him)

Well senate is a special case…

I’ve only had one local member who I felt was really invisible, but I agree with the sentiment that most MPs are somewhere in the middle of what people call ‘hard working’ and ‘invisible’ and people’s opinions on that are generally coloured by their partisan leaning and/or just assuming other MPs must be either more or less visible than them.

Michael Danby was the one invisible MP I had. Compared to other state & federal MPs I’ve had of all stripes – including Simon Crean, Anna Burke, Josh Burns & Martin Foley of Labor, Sam Hibbins of the Greens and Katie Allen of the Liberals – which I feel have all been relatively “visible” and active in their communities, Danby was nowhere to be seen until election time when he sent out his three-yearly attack material against the Greens.

@Trent Danby always seemed to be nothing more than a pro-Israel hack who only occupied Melbourne Ports for so many years thanks to the Jewish vote propping him up when on other occasions he almost lost the seat entirely.

Back to Aston, I daresay that Mary Doyle, at least from the internet perspective, seems to be in that range of between invisible and hard-working. The former in that she (and to be fair, most of the Labor and Liberal MPs) are always parroting the party talking points without deviation, but the latter in that she’s actively involved in the community and participating and supporting local events. In that sense she’s hardly ‘invisible’ like what Nick mentioned about David Smith in Bean who can afford to do so because it’s such a safe Labor seat in the ACT.

I agree. If you’re at local sporting events, school fetes, festivals, actively working with council, unveiling projects etc you’re not invisible and I would say that’s the vast majority of MPs.

It’s possible some people who think their MP is invisible are just never out & about (or following their social media) to see it!

The demise of suburban papers in most areas also means that these days a lot of the “visibility” (or lack thereof) of local MPs (and councillors) comes through social media, which means that if you’re not on their side politically there’s a fair chance the algorithms will send you less of their stuff.

One tip on MP standing that I have seen a few times now after living in marginal state and federal seats for over 20 years.
If you see your MP at a community event and no one is talking to them – they are gawn.
Tallyroomers – just look and watch.

NickG,
Given what you have said you should vote independent,then ALP and then Green or LNP according to your choice.Labor will win,but be sent a message.

Trent, that’s interesting as Danby was such a long term member. There is an argument the longer you are the MP then you can be a little less active. You already have profile.