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I sense David Pocock will retain his seat next election because of the sophomore surge and name recognition. Dutton has a really bad rap within the APS as a Health Minister and a Home Affairs Minister, moreso than other ministers, Labor or LNP. The Liberals would be better off focusing on winning/retaining three seats in the states. They do have a shot in QLD and VIC at picking up a third seat out of the six up for election.
The ACT Libs should not preselect Zed Seselja. His hard right politics won’t appeal to an affluent and progressive electorate. He’s also a “seat shopper” as he tried to get a NSW senate seat and ACT voters will question his loyalty. It’s best they preselect new blood.
I believe Labor was more worried about losing than the Liberals were in 2022 because of imminent three horse race where:
– Pocock could split the vote and reduce Labor’s primary.
– Greens and other minor party voters could send their preferences to Pocock instead of Labor.
This and NT will only be two seats next election. I’m going to say this will be
1 Pocock
1 Labor
not sure if Pocock will outpoll Labor but should be re-elected maybe a slightly better result for Pocock than in 2022.
atm id say libs within a chance of retaking the senate spot but would have to analyse the 2022 results and the upcoming act election results before making a definite prediction
Pocock will likely be elected and outpoll Labor if he and the libs strip enough votes off Labor who barely made a quota last time libs could swap out with lab
Based on ACT election, seeing a status quo result.
It wouldn’t take much to shift the Labor seat to liberal especially if the left vote solidifies behind pocock
Pocock has been building a strong profile as an active ACT Senator & on 70% of issues important to Green voters voting with them. Enough Green voters will vote tactically for Pocock to ensure he holds his seat. Liberal candidate is invisible & has no profile. Recent ACT election suggested that ACT voters still regard the local Liberals with deep suspicion & Peter Dutton is doing nothing to dissolve that suspicion.
David Pocock is gonna draw a heap of votes away from the minor partiesand candidates and likely Labor as well. The Liberals might just be able to topple Gallagher instead. Pocock will be reflected i have no doubt about that.
@John Labor wouldn’t lose a Senate spot in the ACT. It’s the ACT. Similarly the NT will always be both major parties.
The ACT is not Tealish due to being dominated by Public servents it is somewhat economically left-wing maybe not to the extent as Blaxland, Watson, Calwell or Scullin but nevertherless strong for the Centre Left, hence the Labor party cannot be knocked out of the 2CP in any ACT Lower house seat.
I’ve done the maths and it’s entirely possible for it to happen
@John Labor’s vote is too high for that to happen and I think David Pocock only won because he captured the centrist vote.
If the Liberal vote increases then Pocock will be defeated. It is like saying the Greens can win more seats than Labor in the ACT Legislative assembly
It is possible that Greens vote will drop as their voters vote tactically and also, given they’ll come fourth at best.
The lead Liberal candidate seems like a political outsider without much local profile, unlike the last two or three Liberal senators. The last two Liberal senators were former ACT opposition leaders and one of them, Gary Humphries, was a Chief Minister.
I feel that Pocock may outpoll Gallagher, but they will both be re-elected comfortably
The lead Liberal candidate, Jacob Vadakkedathu, has a cloud hanging over him. There’s discontent within the ranks about his low-profile and also there’s allegations of branch-stacking. ABC reports that the Canberra Liberals will vote in early February on his future as the lead candidate.
Pocock will easily be relected there is an outside chance the Libs could snag the second spot from Gallagher