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I sense David Pocock will retain his seat next election because of the sophomore surge and name recognition. Dutton has a really bad rap within the APS as a Health Minister and a Home Affairs Minister, moreso than other ministers, Labor or LNP. The Liberals would be better off focusing on winning/retaining three seats in the states. They do have a shot in QLD and VIC at picking up a third seat out of the six up for election.
The ACT Libs should not preselect Zed Seselja. His hard right politics won’t appeal to an affluent and progressive electorate. He’s also a “seat shopper” as he tried to get a NSW senate seat and ACT voters will question his loyalty. It’s best they preselect new blood.
I believe Labor was more worried about losing than the Liberals were in 2022 because of imminent three horse race where:
– Pocock could split the vote and reduce Labor’s primary.
– Greens and other minor party voters could send their preferences to Pocock instead of Labor.
This and NT will only be two seats next election. I’m going to say this will be
1 Pocock
1 Labor
not sure if Pocock will outpoll Labor but should be re-elected maybe a slightly better result for Pocock than in 2022.
atm id say libs within a chance of retaking the senate spot but would have to analyse the 2022 results and the upcoming act election results before making a definite prediction
Pocock will likely be elected and outpoll Labor if he and the libs strip enough votes off Labor who barely made a quota last time libs could swap out with lab
Based on ACT election, seeing a status quo result.
It wouldn’t take much to shift the Labor seat to liberal especially if the left vote solidifies behind pocock
Pocock has been building a strong profile as an active ACT Senator & on 70% of issues important to Green voters voting with them. Enough Green voters will vote tactically for Pocock to ensure he holds his seat. Liberal candidate is invisible & has no profile. Recent ACT election suggested that ACT voters still regard the local Liberals with deep suspicion & Peter Dutton is doing nothing to dissolve that suspicion.
David Pocock is gonna draw a heap of votes away from the minor partiesand candidates and likely Labor as well. The Liberals might just be able to topple Gallagher instead. Pocock will be reflected i have no doubt about that.
@John Labor wouldn’t lose a Senate spot in the ACT. It’s the ACT. Similarly the NT will always be both major parties.
The ACT is not Tealish due to being dominated by Public servents it is somewhat economically left-wing maybe not to the extent as Blaxland, Watson, Calwell or Scullin but nevertherless strong for the Centre Left, hence the Labor party cannot be knocked out of the 2CP in any ACT Lower house seat.
I’ve done the maths and it’s entirely possible for it to happen
@John Labor’s vote is too high for that to happen and I think David Pocock only won because he captured the centrist vote.
If the Liberal vote increases then Pocock will be defeated. It is like saying the Greens can win more seats than Labor in the ACT Legislative assembly
It is possible that Greens vote will drop as their voters vote tactically and also, given they’ll come fourth at best.
The lead Liberal candidate seems like a political outsider without much local profile, unlike the last two or three Liberal senators. The last two Liberal senators were former ACT opposition leaders and one of them, Gary Humphries, was a Chief Minister.
I feel that Pocock may outpoll Gallagher, but they will both be re-elected comfortably
The lead Liberal candidate, Jacob Vadakkedathu, has a cloud hanging over him. There’s discontent within the ranks about his low-profile and also there’s allegations of branch-stacking. ABC reports that the Canberra Liberals will vote in early February on his future as the lead candidate.
Pocock will easily be relected there is an outside chance the Libs could snag the second spot from Gallagher
@Darth Vader not a chance unfortunately.
IMO the ACT is ideologically left wing for the most part, but largely respects the orthodoxy on foreign policy and Defence, and also won’t go much more economically left than social democracy. This I think will largely keep them with Labor, especially when Labor are in opposition, and not further left than that. The Greens’ left populism will do worse here than earlier incarnations of the party, and I don’t even think they’d be a lock for a seat if it was magnitude 4 (IIRC on 2022 results Labor’s 2nd candidate would have won the 4th seat if there were 4).
Pocock basically is a Richard Di Natale era Green but he’s made overtures to be more pro business to soak up enough of the Liberal base.
Seeing a status quo result
Greens have preselected Christina Hobbs, their 2016 Senate candidate. From memory last time she was preselected before the senate reforms that made the ACT senate seat a lot less winnable for Greens. A surprisingly strong choice who definitely sits on the more moderate/teal side of the party (she runs a superannuation fund).
Don’t see her upsetting the very likely Pocock/Gallagher result. May be ground work for running again when the Senate magnitude increases. I’m reminded though of when recently defeated MLC Sue Pennicuik ran for Goldstein in 2019 at the last minute, or Andrew Bartlett for Clayfield at QLD 2020 – both strong candidates on paper, and paper candidates.
I am not sure all the wishful thinking in the Tallyroom will get the Libs a spot back here
it appears the ACT Liberals have voted to keep their lead Senate candidate in the position amid claims of branch stacking after surviving a motion calling for him to be disendorsed.
It’s quite possible that Dutton becomes Prime Minister but ends up with something of a poisoned chalice due to the Coalition’s significant Senate losses in 2022.
Assuming that the Peter Dutton can find a way to work with Ralph Babet, Pauline Hanson and Tammy Tyrrell, the “Right-bloc” starts a seat behind parity due to the Coalition losing its third seat in WA to Fatima Payman.
Even if the Coalition could replicate its relatively strong result at the 2019 election (ie. an extra seat in Queensland plus regaining its ACT seat), the “Left-bloc” of Labor, Greens and David Pocock would still have 38 seats and enough to block any legislation.
So the Coalition’s options are:
– Work with one of David Pocock or Fatima Payman if at all possible
– Or hope that Labor or Greens retain less than 3 seats in any of the states outside of Queensland, which is a tall order even on the current polling
Either way, that would still require dealing with all of JLN/PHON/UAP which could be tricky.
@angas that’s actually wrong. If the libs took the act seat the left block if you include Thorpe because you know “crazy”. They would only have 37. Labor had 26 greens had 12 + pocock = 39 – Payman and Gallagher = 37. Pocock can probably also be reasoned with and negotiate for a vote. Hanson and Babet can also reliably relied upon to pass legislation. There also the possibility the libs can get back the 3rd seat in Tasmania. It will only be a matter of time before libs get back paymans seat in 2028. Also babet is no longer uap since that party has been deregistered.
Also it’s also in part to the losses of the cross bench in SA.
@John
Yeah I suppose if you remove Payman as a sure vote against the Coalition, then Labor + Greens + Thorpe will be either 36 or 37 depending on if Gallagher loses her seat. So there’d be just enough room to move without relying on every single crossbencher.
I agree that Hanson, Babet and Malcolm Roberts will be reliable enough, so mainly a matter of dealing with Tyrrell, Payman and Lambie if she gets in.
Pocock does seem like he’ll consider things on their merit regardless of who’s in power, but I believe he’d be more ideologically opposed on certain issues like nuclear.
Outside of Queensland, Tasmania definitely seems like the place where the Coalition can pick up an extra seat, either at the expense of Lambie or Labor’s 2nd. I think any of the other states would be too difficult. Maybe the Greens could be at risk in NSW or SA, but it’s hard to tell.