ALP 5.5%
Incumbent MP
Anne Stanley, since 2016.
Geography
South-western Sydney. Werriwa covers western parts of the City of Liverpool and a small northern part of the City of Campbelltown. Key suburbs include Casula, Glenfield, Macquarie Fields, Hoxton Park, Prestons, Rossmore, Austral, Green Valley, Cecil Hills, Miller, Ashcroft and Badgerys Creek.
History
Werriwa is an original federation electorate, named after an indigenous name for Lake George, near the ACT. The seat originally covered parts of southern NSW including what became northern parts of the ACT. It gradually shifted northeast to the Illawarra, eventually reaching the Liverpool-Campbelltown area. The seat has been a safe Labor seat since the 1930s, and has been held by a number of prominent Labor figures, including a Prime Minister, a Treasurer and a Leader of the Opposition. The seat has seen a record number of five federal by-elections, which have all seen Labor retain the seat, in 1912, 1952, 1978, 1994 and 2005.
The seat was first won by Alfred Conroy of the Free Trade Party in 1901. Conroy was defeated by David Hall (ALP) in 1906. Hall was re-elected in 1910, but resigned in 1912 to return to state politics. Hall served as Minister for Justice then Attorney-General from 1912 to 1920. Hall was expelled from the ALP in 1916 for supporting conscription, along with Premier William Holman.
Werriwa was won by the ALP’s Benjamin Bennett at the 1912 by-election, but retired at the 1913 election, when Conroy was re-elected for the Liberal Party. John Lynch gained the seat back from Conroy in 1914, and left the ALP in 1916 over conscription, becoming a Nationalist.
Lynch was re-elected as a Nationalist in 1917 but lost the seat to the ALP’s Hubert Lazzarini in 1919. Werriwa began to strongly shift from the Southern Highlands into the Illawarra region at the 1922 redistribution, and over the next thirty years Lazzarini saw the seat shift into the Liverpool district and eventually lose the Illawarra.
Lazzarini followed NSW Premier Jack Lang out of the ALP in 1931, and was one of the Labor splitters who brought down the Scullin government, and lost Werriwa to Country Party candidate Walter McNicoll at that year’s election.
Lazzarini regained Werriwa as a Lang Labor candidate in 1934, and returned to the ALP in 1936. Lazzarini served as a minister in the Curtin government and the first Chifley ministry in the 1940s, and held the seat until his death in 1952.
The 1952 by-election was won by ALP candidate Gough Whitlam. Whitlam ascended to the leadership of the Labor Party in 1967 and was elected Prime Minister in 1972. Whitlam was Prime Minister for three years, losing the 1975 election following the dismissal of his government. He remained Leader of the Opposition and led the ALP into the 1977 election, retiring in 1978.
The 1978 by-election was won by John Kerin, who had previously held the neighbouring seat of Macarthur from 1972 until his defeat in 1975. Kerin served as a minister for the entirety of the Hawke government, rising to the position of Treasurer after Paul Keating moved to the backbench in 1991, but a troubled period as Treasurer saw him move to the backbench just before Keating became Prime Minister, and he retired in 1994.
The 1994 by-election was won by Mayor of Liverpool and Whitlam protege Mark Latham. Latham quickly rose to the ALP frontbench following their 1996 election defeat, although he left the frontbench after the 1998 election because of conflicts with ALP leader Kim Beazley.
Latham returned to the frontbench following the 2001 election, when Simon Crean succeeded Kim Beazley as Leader of the Opposition, rising to the position of Shadow Treasurer before Crean resigned as Leader, and Latham was narrowly elected as Labor leader in December 2003.
Latham led the ALP to a defeat at the 2004 election and resigned in early 2005 as both Labor leader and Member for Werriwa. The ensuing by-election (at which the author stood as a candidate for the Greens) saw ALP candidate Chris Hayes safely elected, and he won re-election in 2007.
The 2010 redistribution saw the seat of Reid effectively abolished in its existing form, and this triggered a reshuffling of Labor MPs in Western Sydney. Laurie Ferguson moved from Reid to Werriwa. Hayes shifted north to Fowler.
Ferguson had been a state MP from 1984 to 1990 and had already served twenty years in federal Parliament when he shifted to Werriwa.
Hayes and Ferguson were both re-elected in their new seats, with Ferguson being hit by a large 8.3% swing. Ferguson was re-elected again in 2013.
Ferguson retired in 2016, and was succeeded by Labor candidate Anne Stanley. Stanley was re-elected in 2019.
Assessment
Werriwa has slowly become more marginal over the decades but it’s not likely to be a critical marginal at the next election.
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
| Anne Stanley | Labor | 45,002 | 47.8 | -4.4 |
| Shayne Miller | Liberal | 33,234 | 35.3 | -1.3 |
| Signe Westerberg | Greens | 5,060 | 5.4 | +0.8 |
| Narelle Storey | Christian Democratic Party | 4,841 | 5.1 | -1.6 |
| Ignatios Tsiriplis | United Australia Party | 3,957 | 4.2 | +4.2 |
| Michael White | Independent | 2,135 | 2.3 | +2.3 |
| Informal | 12,324 | 11.6 | +2.8 |
2019 two-party-preferred result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
| Anne Stanley | Labor | 52,270 | 55.5 | -2.7 |
| Shayne Miller | Liberal | 41,959 | 44.5 | +2.7 |
Booths have been divided into four parts. Most of the seat’s population lies in the eastern half of the seat, and these areas have been split into central (including West Hoxton and Prestons), north-east (including Cecil Hills, Green Valley and Hinchinbrook) and south-east (including Casula, Glenfield and Macquarie Fields). The remaining rural booths in the western end of the seat were grouped as “west”.
The ALP won a majority of the two-party-preferred vote in three areas, with a vote ranging from 52% in the centre to 60.4% in the south-east. The Liberal Party won 73.2% in the sparsely-populated west of the seat.
| Voter group | ALP 2PP % | Total votes | % of votes |
| North-East | 59.1 | 23,993 | 49.5 |
| Central | 52.0 | 16,400 | 33.9 |
| South-East | 60.4 | 15,724 | 32.5 |
| West | 26.8 | 1,914 | 4.0 |
| Pre-poll | 54.7 | 25,751 | 53.2 |
| Other votes | 52.5 | 10,447 | 21.6 |
Election results in Werriwa at the 2019 federal election
Toggle between two-party-preferred votes and primary votes for Labor and the Liberal Party.
@nimalan exactly im tipping werriwa as a flip anne stanley is gone as it would take in strong liberal areas from fowler which ive abolsihed given its gonna get gutted at least 3 ways. given walton will be most created in GWS there wont be any net loss of a seat named after a woman so that shouldnt be an issue
@ John interestingly, Dai Le wanted the affluent Liberal suburbs of Cecil Hills, Elizabeth Hills to be transferred to Fowler to help her retain the seat. Even on current boundaries i expect suburbs like Middleton Grange, West Hoxton, Austral to improve for the Libs as they are quite Aspirational McMansion Suburbs longer term. The issue for Labor that Anne Stanley has caused Labor to under perform in areas like Casuala, Lurnea and Hichinbrook which should not be trending Liberal at all. In any case, the Labor should be wise to have a new candidate.
@nimalana as much as i want dai le to keep a seat off labor im in agreement with labor on gutting that seat, while labor does it probably at least partially for self beneficial reasons i believe its in that sweet spot like NS that its in the middle off an ideal spot to chop up as it cotains parts of 3 lgas. if she ran for the new werriwa shed have a chance or she could chris bowen a run for his money
my proposal also sheds werriwas parts of fairfield and campbelltown to what ive called Bradman but i suppose they could retain the Fowler name even though its contains less then 50% of fowlers vters and ceed campbelltown back to macarthur makin this a liverpool/holsworthy based seat
Dai le won for one reason and one reason only… kkk’
Lack of support. You don’t normally win the lottery twice. Look at Villawood which straddles Fowler and Blaxland… the Labor vote was I think 10% higher in Blaxland
@mick true but she could benefit from incumbency especially if labor has fallen out of favour. but the redistribution is gonna hurt her so i think shes gone too
This would be a very good get for the LNP – their media allies would spend the next 3 years talking about how the “red wall” in Western Sydney is breaking (a big feature of the Gillard years), that a political realignment is on, that they are a dead government walking (especially if they’re in minority).
@ John (from Canberra)
As mentioned above. Maybe wait for the redistribution to be finalized before seeing what the a potential realignment might do. As i mentioned above on the current boundaries Werriwa is 16% Muslim so Palestine will likely be an issue here and may actually drive a swing to the Greens in the poorer suburbs here such as Lurnea/Casuala similar to comments in the Wills thread. As the other John said if boundaries change it will be a more affluent seat in anycase and be liberal friendly.
I don’t see how the Liberals can win a seat like this with a high proportion of voters who identify as Muslim or who are of Lebanese or Iraqi ancestry given the Liberals’ blank check support for Israel. If the Liberals ever want to “crack” Labor’s red wall in Western Sydney, I think they will need to moderate their support for Israel, and there is no indication that they are interested in doing that.
What is possible is that the protest vote against Labor/Liberal due to lockdowns and pandemic politics may have converted into anger over the Palestine issue. If the effect is around the same and the preference flows don’t change then Labor can still hold on based on current boundaries.
Loyal Labor voters may vote for other parties as a protest but still preference Labor ahead of the Liberals. This is how Labor’s primary vote fell yet their 2PP didn’t. I doubt that Labor-voting or Labor-preferencing voters who upset over the Palestine issue will be flocking to the Liberals.
@ John
continuing from Fowler thread on Werriwa. I agree 100% Labor is struggling and i have often called for there to be a preselection challenge for Anne Stanley. I also think Dai Le can easily defeat Anne Stanley i also believe Dai Le can do better among Muslim voters than Labor or Liberal she called for a ceasefire much earlier. The only reason i want to be cautious until the redistribution is finalized is i need to work out what the % of Muslims would be in the new Werriwa currently it is 16% but can grow or decrease.
@nimalan i think labor will lose werriwa to either dai le or the coalition if its redistributed before or after the election. i here there are concerns in labor about dai le as shes pretty popular and she will probably be running against chris bowen, jason clare or anne stanley i think she could beat all of those
@ John, i personally doubt she can beat Chris Bowen. Chris Bowen is no KK he grew up locally and is still raising his children in the area. He was a local mayor as well so while he is Anglo and an athiest he still is not a parachute. Dont take it the wrong way i did not say that the Coalition cannot win Werriwa i just said i will give a prediction closer to the election when i know the actual boundaries rather than focusing on hypotheticals.
@nimalan perhaps not on current boundaries but the redistribtion would favour Dai Le demographically speaking and was marginal when labor were in government last time and even in 2019. i think she could beat him as independant and this particular part of sydney has been hit hard by interest rate rises and CoL pressures labor are worried about a matchup between her and Bowen from what i hear too. if she didnt win she would get real close in my opinion. im saying the coalition or dai le will win werriwa not just on the boundaires but the local mp seems to be one of the weakest members of the party.
I’m putting this a lib likely. Stanley has squandered the Labor vote here and I think it’s just with Range for a lib gain
@John if the northwestern part is removed in the redistribution then it would be much less safe for Labor. This is another one of those polarised seats like Lingiari, Macquarie, McEwen, Wentworth, etc: in the case of Werriwa there is a clear east-west political divide.
@np its losing its campbelltown parts of the division to hughes as well
@John that wouldn’t be enough to notionally flip it, it would need to also lose suburbs like Ashcroft, Bonnyrigg, Bonnyrigg Valley, Busby, Green Valley, Heckenberg, Hinchinbrook, Lurnea, Miller and Sadleir in addition to Glenfield, Long Point and Macquarie Fields to become a notional Liberal seat.
@np no but i imagine there wil be a swing against the government in 2025. several seats will be at risk seats like werriwa hunter mcewen. i think several other seats may become marginal frm safe and ultimately fall in 2028
Interesting to know how the fact that War has now spread to Lebanon with over 700 dead in the bloodiest day since the Civil War. This is an area where the Libs have been making inroads into the Lebanese community the suburbs of Lurnea and Casula have been where Labor has weakened significantly.
So… where’s that vote gonna go? The Greens? Left-conservative independents?
I would say either Muslim vote endorsed candidate or Greens
The Lebanese Christian vote should stay the same but some of the Muslim vote will go to Muslim Vote candidates.
@ Nether Portal
The Lebanese Christians generally live around Parramatta especially Oatlands and typically more affluent. There are Assyrians Christians here though. Btw, i know you are of Lebanese heritage and i do hope your family in Lebanon are safe given everything going on.
@Nimalan thanks, none of my family from Lebanon are still alive though (as far as I know). But I do hope everyone over there is safe.
As far as I’m aware most Lebanese hate hezbollah as much as the Israelis do and blame hezbollah for their problems.
@John yes that is true.
@np it’s unlike Gaza and Palestine in general where they hate Israel and both blame Israel for their problems and support hamas. In Lebanon while they have support in the little enclaves they are generally blamed for the problems both politically and for the bloodshed. They use the political and democratic system they are opposed to to create disfunction in parliament and then provoke Israel into causing conflict but they don’t have control of the country and therefore are unable to brainwash the general populace.
A lot of controversy has emerged that Hezbollah flags and photos of Nasrallah are being used in protests especially as it will be the anniversary of October 7 next week.
it looks like labor is commiting to spending up big here to defend this seat