Wentworth – Australia 2022

Hi guys, I’m new to page. I just wanted talk about @SCart comments around NW Melbourne being unwinnable for the Libs. As a young 18 year old CALD person growing up in the western suburbs of Melbourne, I don’t see it as far fetched for the Liberals to gain seats in the West and North in the future. Sure the Victorian Liberal party here has been tragic over the past 2 decades but it doesn’t mean they can’t win out here if they can’t their act together. Point Cook, Tarneit, Williams Landing in the west for example are becoming more and more affluent by the day, with IT professionals moving into the area, many from the South Asian community. These people are very very aspirational people and hold family values to a core, much like what the Liberal Party represents so if the state branch can get its act together who is to say seats in the West or even the North in areas like Craigeburn can’t turn Liberal. I also agree with the notion that the Liberals can’t forget seats like Wentworth, Kooyong and Goldstein but that can’t stop them from going after CALD communities which are affluent and aspirational

I’m admittedly a bit biased in this regard as I do hold pretty hard left views, but I’m not really convinced Labor have moved left socially since 2016. Where I think the difference lies is that the Liberals have changed focus from economic issues to more culture war issues which has led to the last couple of elections being fought on those instead – in 2016 Turnbull ran a more moderate Liberal coded campaign, whereas Morrison was happy to use issues like environmentalism etc. as wedge issues (before it blew up in his face in 2022) and didn’t seem to care about economic issues. Also I think an under-rated issue for Labor in working-class areas was that they could use issues like WorkChoices and Medicare privitisation against the Liberals, whereas now the Liberals aren’t really talking about making massive economic changes (and outside of the 2014 budget didn’t do in power) so it’s harder for Labor to run on fears about a radical right-wing economic program that the Liberals are running. Conversly, the Liberals Sky News turn has led them to become more conservative socially so they’ve been easier to hit on social issues from the left than before.

I do think Labor want to regain those ex-Labor seats that have flipped since 2016 but I’m not convinced that’s very likely without a Liberal government who goes full economic rationalist ala the 2014 budget or the last Howard term. And even then I wouldn’t be surprised if they wave the environmentalist card to save them in rural Queensland (for example). But I do think Labor want to run on a more economic coded program rather than trying to fight culture wars, whereas the Coalition, Greens and the Teals absolutely want those culture wars left, right and centre (especially the Coalition).

@ Franky
I certainly agree with you that the Libs at their best could do well in aspirational suburbs like Point Cook, Williams Landing and even Mickleham, Cragieburn etc. I often say Point Cook, Williams Landing are more like a younger/new version of Glen Waverley rather than say Laverton two stops away by train. However, if they are doing well here they are probably also going to do well in the sandbelt, eastern suburbs and this will be sprinkles on the cake for the Libs rather than their path to power. Last State election the aspirational suburbs in NW Melbourne did not really swing against Labor it was more deprived areas like St Albans, Meadow Heights, Deer Park etc. Even in the seat of Point Cook the anti Labor swing was greater in working class Altona Meadows than affluent Point Cook.

@Nimalan I agree while the state as a whole swung against Labor the swing was mostly concentrated in Melbourne’s north and west where there are very safe Labor seats. In Greenvale there was a primary vote swing against Labor of –18.6% which is huge and the TPP swing against Labor was –14.9% which is also huge.

@ Nether Portal
I agree with you even if we look at the seat of Greenvale itself the swing was much higher in the poorer areas in Meadow Heights where there was 33% Primary swing against Labor while in Greenvale suburb which is more affluent, less diverse and Liberal friendly the swing was much less than that and unfortunately for the Libs they recorded a primary swing against them in the suburb of Greenvale. The issue for the Libs is that they cant be the party of Dover Heights in Wentworh and be the party of Meadow Heights in Greenvale so that a decision they need to make. The Libs at the best can be the party of Dover Heights, Longman and maybe even Point Cook though. The Labor party cannot be the party of Hunters Hill and Rooty Hill so it was probably a blessing that they did not win North Sydney even though they did try.

https://www.pollbludger.net/vic2022/Results/LA.htm?s=Greenvale

@Nimalan
While true that being the party of Hunters Hill and Rooty Hill at the same time is indeed not possible, the booth results in North Sydney indicates Labor’s performance in the seat can be attributed to Lane Cove and the train line suburbs from North Sydney to Chatswood, rather than a success in Hunters Hill, Longueville, and Northbridge.
I would also doubt that not winning North Sydney was a blessing given they kinda have to retain the seat with Toorak now anyway.

As a tangent, the state boundaries in the North Sydney are VERY unfortunate for Labor and the Greens. Lane Cove has Hunters Hill, Willoughby has Northbridge, and North Shore has Mosman ruining their day. A seat that excludes these areas, consequently centered on St Leonards or North Sydney would be appreciated by Labor/Greens, though that probably requires a seat to cross the Spit Bridge in a major way.

@Nimalan, isn’t this just the realignment at work, Labor are becoming less the party of Rooty Hill and the Libs are less the party of Hunters Hill? Labor are becoming less the party of Rooty Hill and the Libs less the party of Hunters Hill?

@ MLV
Labor did not win North Sydney even though they did try unlike the other Teal held seats so my point was for the Labor party not to try again. Chifley which contains Rooty Hill had pretty much a status quo result last time. I would argue the reason for both parties underperfoming in their respective strongholds in both parties have focused on social issues rather than economic. If the libs want to avenge the losses of the Teals they ought to run dead in Chifley and support a Dai Le style independent which they did in Fowler. If they had an election on industrial relations we we had have seen Libs do better in Hunters Hill and Labor better in Rooty Hill.

@nimalan il agree on those 3 gains you mentioned. leichardt with a retiring member, sturt being in a state where labo is strong but given they barely took the state seat recently of dunstan with a retiring member its looking less likely. but yea they will get either menzies or deakin at least notionally after redistribution is complete but that doesnt mean they will win it at the election

@Nimalan I do agree with your assessment of Point Cook/Williams Landing being a younger version of Glen Waverley, similar sort of demographic appears to be in both sets of suburbs as well as similar levels of aspiration. I also agree that the Liberals can’t be the party of Rooty Hill/ Deer Park and Dover Heights/ Kew. They have to pick to go one side or another and imo the better long term sustainable option would be base your in Dover Heights/ Kew areas but then branching yourself off to the Point Cook’s, Williams Landing’s and Mickleham’s of the world.

As you all have stated we did big swings in the lower-social economical areas of Melbourne such as Broadmeadows, Meadow Heights and St Albans, but these swings weren’t carried in areas around Melton. Strathtulloh which is a suburb just outside of Melton had the biggest swing against the government at 7.3%, but parts of Melton such as Melton West and Melton South hardly had a swing against the government. Does this show that the strategy of going after the outer lower social economic regions of Melbourne is a dud strategy for the Liberals or did the swings against Labor already occur in 2018 due to the Don Nardella saga?

Either way seats Wentworth are still integral imo for the a future coalition federal government.

The swings in Melton are basically the same as everywhere else in the west if you factor in swing since 2014. It’s just most of the big swings were in 2018. Also no incumbent in 2018 and incumbency in 2022

@ Franky
Have a look through the Kalkallo thread prior to election and i think in hindsight actually predicted a lot of what happened in Melton. i mentioned in that thread that areas like Kalkallo and Melton were evidence of Victoria being a victim of its own success. I also mentioned that on the Virigina Trioli program where there was little mentioned of Covid and more about Hospital, rail electrification etc. Melton LGA is the fasted growing LGA in Victoria so i believe the under performance of Labor in Melton has more to do with the fact services are not being delivered as quickly as residents would like. If you watch the coverage from 2022 state election, Kos Samaras mentioned that in Melton there were two demographics. The more established residents who have lived for over 20-30 years were those who are leaving Labor while Labor is increasingly reliant on support from the Indian community in the new housing estates to survive in seats like Melton. Kalkallo had very little swing in 2022 while Meadow Heights had a big swing. Problem for Liberals is the post covid backlash was concentrated in the wrong parts of the West/north. With the Palestine issue i dont think Libs can make any further ground in Meadow Heights for sometime and probably see an increase in support for Victorian Socialists.

https://www.tallyroom.com.au/archive/vic2022/kalkallo2022

* Melton is the fasted growing LGA in Australia i mean.

Thanks @nimalan and @drake for that great analysis.

Overall I do agree in those more well established working class areas (Meadow Heights, Broadmeadows and St Albans) those anti lockdown swings really showed a disconnect with mainstream politics from those typical Labor Voters working class voters and as you pointed out @Nimalan those significant swings didn’t appear in outer suburb growth areas with infrastructure issues like Melton (even though Melton itself is a well established working class suburb but it contains an ever growing South Asian community) and Kalkallo. Thats not a good sign for the liberals, even as you said they are gaining voters 20-30 year residents of an Anglo background in Melton. These are normally Labor voters who are disaffected with lockdowns and the like so as I’ve previously stated for the Liberals to gain seats in the western suburbs the more affluent, aspirational people (in this case the south Asian community in Melton) need to be onside, but on current trends this doesn’t seem to be happening.

I also agree with you about the analysis of the swings in Meadow Heights, with majority of the swings being from the Arabian community these swings could be reversed due to the on going conflict in Gaza, making Greenvale almost unwinnable for the foreseeable future.

The more affluent western suburbs such as Point Cook etc. are demographically and socioeconomically similar to much of the eastern suburbs of Melbourne that the Libs have been absolutely decimated in recent elections. In theory they should be areas the Libs are competitive in but the Libs are doing very poorly with this sort of demographic recently. A focus on bread and butter issues rather than culture war and niche issues like COVID lockdowns would help the Libs with this demographic.

I think this is the second-most Jewish electorate in Australia after Macnamara in Melbourne. It’s definitely the most Jewish electorate in NSW.

So this brings up the question of what might happen to the teal vote in this seat? I don’t think the Liberals will pick it up because Dutton is too hard-right unlike Turnbull or Dave Sharma who are moderate or even Scomo who was a middle-ground figure. But because of this the Liberals should still finish first and Allegra Spender wins on Labor and Greens preferences.

i want to have another attempt like i did in the Kooyong thread about what would have happened if the Teals did not exist.
1. First question, Can the Liberal vote fall under 50% without an independent? Lets look since 1983 and when the Liberal vote fell below that threshold without an independent.
2. There is only one example in 1998 when the Libs got 49.8% however, ONP got about 2% so it is clearly a right wing majority in 1998.
3. In 2004, Sitting Liberal MP Peter King ran as an independent so the Libs were forced to preferences but again that is a split in the Liberal vote not really a major shift to the Left.
4. Therefore even in 2007 the Libs got a majority without the need for preferences.Therefore reaching the first threshold would have still been a challenge in 2022. In 2007, the Labor party ran a good campaign for this seat and chose a High Profile Jewish Candidate back in 2007 he got 30.5% while the Greens only got 15% by 2016 the gap between Labor and Greens had narrowed to only 3%. If there was no Teal and Labor ran George Newhouse again the gap between Labor and Greens would be a lot narrower. I think Dave Sharma in 2022 would have underperformed Turnbull in 2007 so may have gone to 45-47 primary%. Jewish moderate Liberals would have switched to Labor while many non-Jewish Liberals may have gone to Greens so there is a clear battle for second place may guess in Sharma would have still won albeit narrowly so without Teals 2022 maybe the first time the Libs really went to preferences.

I think Wentworth could’ve been like Higgins in 2022 in some ways, except Labor wouldn’t have won. Labor’s candidate for 2019 and 2022 is a businessman with an impressive resume, but would still fall short.

Malcolm Turnbull had a massive personal vote. The Labor and Greens vote were surpressed for decades. It was also surpressed when Kerryn Phelps ran due to tactical voting. The voters weren’t used to voting Labor despite the demographic and political changes and the influx of moderate liberals.

In 2019, Shorten’s bold economic reform agenda frightened voters. In 2022, the economic policies of both major parties were more or less aligned (namely stage 3 tax cuts, negative gearing and CGT concessions). This would’ve shifted climate change and integrity closer to the top of the agenda. Remember – Morrison copped a lot of criticism for his response to the bushfires and floods and Covid in his final term. The repudiation of Morrison helped the Greens win three seats in metro Brisbane. Similar factors would’ve drove up the Greens vote and Labor vote (if Labor had tried).

@Votante out of all the Teal seats, only North Sydney was the one that was somewhat winnable for Labor if the Teals weren’t present. I suspect if Kylea Tink didn’t run in 2022 Catherine Renshaw (who was a great candidate for the electorate) may have narrowly scraped in and defeated Zimmermann. It’s one of those mixed electorates that has the affluent Lower North Shore combined with the more suburban areas north of the Harbour (Hunter Hill, Castle Cove etc) and the western part would generally favour Labor in the absence of a Teal candidate.

The others are really out of reach for Labor overall, for example they certainly won’t be able to win Warringah, Mackellar, Goldstein, Kooyong or Curtin ever. Those electorates have blue painted all over them, except perhaps with a slight dash of Green in Warringah and Kooyong given Greens have made 2PP before. Wentworth is interesting especially post-distribution that some of the newly distributed areas from Sydney and Kingsford Smith are all Labor friendly areas (which explains the increase in Allegra Spender’s margin). It’s probably the most realistic chance of a blue ribbon seat turning red in Sydney once Allegra Spender leaves (until then, that seat is hers for eons), but the challenge is to overcome the hardcore Liberal voters on the edge of the Harbour in Double Bay, Point Piper, Vaucluse etc and the hippie, Green-skewing Bondi.

Re Wentworth
Turnbull on his second election got a 10% swing which he kept till he resigned

@ MQ
The 10% swing in 2007 in part was due to the absence of an independent. Labor also increased its vote then. I do agree that Turnbull built a strong personal vote though especially after the 2010 election.
@ Votante, I agree that Wentworth is somewhat like Higgins it does have more left-leaning areas and i agree with your analysis that Labor probably would not won in 2022 in the absence of an independent but would have come closer than many other currently Teal held seats.
@Tommo9 I do think North Sydney was the best prospect but even then it important to note that the Liberal primary never fell below 50% in the absence of an independent the only other time it did was when Ted Mack won the seat. Re Mackellar i think it would be LIB V GRN as there is areas on the Northern Beaches where the Greens do well. However, in Bradfield with no Teal i think it would be LIB V ALP same as Goldstein.

Interestingly this was one of the few seats that swung TO the Coalition in 2007. The others were Calare in NSW and Franklin in Tassie plus the two seats the Liberals gained in WA (Cowan and Swan in Perth).

@ np
The swing to Libs in 2007 was in part due to the absence of an independent from 2004. Also virtually no swing in Kooyong in 2007