Wannon – Australia 2022

This seat will be interesting to watch as populations swell along the cost & in Ararat this could make this seat marginal in future elections.

There is likely too much conservative rural territory, with enough of the seat`s population, that that is unlikely. The lower density/smaller built up area living may also increase conservative political views among sea change and tree change voters, particularly if they move to the more conservative rural areas.

That’s an interesting theory, Tom the first and best – where a voter live influences how they vote, even when they have relocated from other areas bring different past voting history. Any evidence??

Tom the first and best I kinda get it, although its the voters and not the areas they reside in. When we look at the typical Australian swing voter, it’s likely to be a mid-fourties blue-collar middle-class white man. An example I could think of where demographics and votes are roughly the same are Cottesloe and Dunsborough in WA, both being wealthy, well-known beachside areas, with high levels of affluence and the same demographics. For both areas the vote is (around) 60% Lib, 20% Green, 15% Labor. Having been to these areas multiple times, they both have the quaint seaside vibe, terrible parking situations, and far too many cafes. I would consider both areas small-L liberal areas, given the high non-religious percentage (42% in Dunsborough). Will they swing? Given the state election, probably not.

actually South West Coast and Polwarth came close last time, Sorry but Henry Bolte territory is not safe blue anymore. It really is becoming more competitive, Labor could very well flip both state seats next year. If you want a conservative region of victory look at the Mildura and the Gippsland and Shepperton. THOSE are what i’d call safe conservative areas in the state.

The Liberals won Polwarth on primaries in an election where they copped a belting. Not sure that signifies “Labor getting close”….perhaps you may be getting mixed up with the post-redistribution margin (which added a bunch of territory that mostly overlaps with Corangamite, not Wannon)?

State figures were ultra Marginal in Ripon………Polwarth 6% and South West coast 2 to 3 % all liberal…. boundary Changes boost the alp vote in the first two by 3%. . The last 2 plus Hamilton make up most of Wannon.
Historically Wannon has averaged 60/40 in… the Liberal party’s favour post Malcolm Fraser. To Win here Labor needs a vote of 55% plus in the big towns……. they are not getting that. Where they do win the big towns,,,,,,, and that is not everywhere the vote is close to 50/50. The Boundary Changes have helped the liberals by less than 1% in Wannon. That said there is a slow drift to Labor in this seat…… and the Surf Coast Area which is now in Wannon will make the drift in this seat stronger

Labor admittedly won a few booths here in 2019, but none of them were particularly large. They won Ararat, Dereel, Halls Gap, Napoleons, Portland Central, Portland North Central, Ross Creek, the external Sebastopol EVC, Smythesdale and Snakes Valley. They had a decent swing against them in Warrnambool and Hamilton (2-5%) while Colac didn’t really swing much. In the rest of the booths they either went slightly towards or against Labor, however these booths were smaller and didn’t affect the result as much, and that’s why the swing was only 1.23% to Dan Tehan.

https://www.tallyroom.com.au/aus2022/wannon2022/comment-page-1#comment-755343
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https://www.tallyroom.com.au/aus2022/wannon2022/comment-page-1#comment-755346

Voters in rural and regional areas are more likely to vote conservative than urban voters. I suspect this is because of rural areas requiring greater self-reliance than urban areas, the social structures in regional areas, the lower population densities lessening the need for rules preventing some activities and city versus country identity politics. All of these are location based, so it stands to reason that there is a reasonable chance that some voters who move are likely to form more conservative voting patterns over time (not necessarily becoming swing voters, some would likely move from being swing voters to conservative voters).

Apart from the area shared with Ripon (and any of the area of Kara Kara* not part of Ripon), the ALP has not won any of the area of Wannon since the 1970 state election (when they had Country Party preferences).

They have come close in the ALP high watermark elections of 2002 and 2018 in South West Coast. However, the recent state redivision it proposing to move some more conservative territory to South West Coast, from Polwarth. Polwarth is looking like it loose more of its conservative eastern territory to South West Coast in the next redivision as Torquay grows (now within Polwarth). Polwarth is likely to become less conservative and South West Coast more conservative.

Just an observation: the LNP don’t do well in the bigger towns on the coast.

Ryan, they do okay. About 50-60% Liberal combined in Portland, Port Fairy and Warrnambool. We’re not talking Airey’s Inlet type numbers here….

That’s more than enough to hold their own given most of the rest of the seat is strong for them.

The seat will continue to shrink with more of the rural territory going into Mallee, this could really benefit ALP in future elections.

Some really bad assumptions being made here. A bit of growth in the Geelong/Surf Coast region is not going to greatly alter the sheer size, nor the political complexion, of Wannon.

Now that places like Anglesea and Winchelsea are in a safe Liberal seat, it will be interesting to see if the Labor vote drops off when there are fewer resources allocated to an unwinnable seat.

Dyson’s vote impressive and he didn’t just take them from Labor and the Greens. Maybe the new coastal areas would be good terrain for him as a Voices candidate, could he get ahead of Labor? Liberal primary isn’t that high. Unlikely I know but people are getting excited about Goldstein where Libs had higher primary vote and Voices candidate has never been tested.

Wanton post 1955 has stayed 60/40 2pp most times…. Labor is competitive in most large towns except Colac and Hamiliton . But where they win in larger towns it tends to be very close.max 52% 2pp they of course lose in smaller towns and in-between…. maybe the key to this is through the state level .. wins in Polwarth south West Coast and Ripon and Labor mps build personal vote . Plus boundary changes eg moving Hamilton out of Wannon.. but this is in the medium to longer term

Wannon

Alex Dyson must be competitive gentlemen as Dan Tehan frowned through his [Alex’s excellent] performance at Ararat recently and has put him last on his HTVs. ALP have put no resources into Wannon and reportedly the candidate wished to put Alex at number 2 but Head Office would not allow it. There is a real possibility Alex could get more vote than the ALP if people understand that in fact he could win by building on his 10%+ last time. We shall see.

There are a lot more Dyson banners than Tehan in Port Fairy…and I’ve only seen one ALP one. Similar discrepancies in Warrnambool.

Tehan won’t be getting much in my end of the street …6-1 against by my count.

It will be interesting to see if Dyson can come second in 2PP, first overtaking Labor on the back of Green preferences. Dyson polled well in the major towns last time, prior to being a ‘Voices for’ candidate, and both he and the Greens should do well in the Surf Coast/Otways booths that have been added following redistribution.

I am feeling anxious as Saturday night approaches. I’m on the conservative coast of Wannon – the area from Warrnambool to Apollo Bay and its hinterland. There is an undercurrent of anger with the federal govt. I wonder if it will affect the voting.

Alp dyson and gr 42% lib 51 uap 6.. with a swing away from the right.. could be interesting if Dyson performs eell

@Barb What are your thoughts on the support for Dyson in this part of the electorate? Last election he got 17% in Port Campbell (with 11% Green), while the combined support of him and the Greens was good in places like Allansford (21%), Peterborough (16%) and Timboon (16%). Otways booths added from Corangamite also had combined environmental independent/Green vote (which Dyson will presumable tap into) of Lavers Hill (25%), Apollo Bay (24%), Gellibrand River (18%) and Forrest (31%)

@WanderWest I think it will be better this election, but how much so, I don’t know. The trick would be to get 1st preferences in sufficient number to be a direct challenge to Libs. That means taking Lib first preferences especially.

I think Alex’s got improved recognition thanks to social media and corflutes and an excellent campaign getting out amongst the communities. Chatting to people it seems that there is a bit of real hostility to Morrison. I haven’t experienced that level of negativity from ‘general public’ before.

Port Campbell, Peterborough, Princetown and hinterland are edgy with planning problems and serious environmental concerns. Currently a serious blue green algal bloom in Peterborough that brought state MP Riordan to a public meeting of about 100 in Peterborough last week. That’s an extraordinary thing.

Apollo Bay had its big planning issues and locals were again seriously organised and successfully took action.

All this speaks to people getting very dissatisfied with politics as normal. And Dyson’s message is getting through and it’s about voting Tehan out.

Impressive was Dysons video at Easter that compared the federal money going to Wannon vs Mallee and Corangamite (they got 4 to 5 times more). The message is make Wannon marginal.

I was at Colac handing out how to vote cards today and Colac is still a deeply conservative place. I know it can be different though because I remember when Bob Hawke was in town and the electorate was Corangamite. The swing against Libs then was massive (12%). But this was not capitalised with follow up, instead the ALP candidate was given Corio as a gift.

This is Dysons 2nd tilt and I get the feeling that he is in it for the long term. A previous independent who stood first as an ALP candidate, then independent (personal acquaintance) believes it can be done. But it requires organised support…such as the strong Voices of Wannon group that now exists.

If not now, then next time 😉

Sounds like Dyson is real chance.

Saw suggestions that Dyson Was getting good support in areas outside the bigger cities and that he will be in.the final 2

Woohoo! Two candidate preferred vote – Dyson 46.1%. Next election, lookout!

Interesting he won some small booths as well Yes I suspect Tehan has reason to win and the libs should be worried about Polwarth in Nov.

If Dyson is interested in state politics then he’d be a clear favourite to win South West Coast. If not him, then a community backed independent would be in with a good chance.

Could be a competitive contest if Dyson runs again as an independent. Otherwise should be an easy win for Tehan.

I think Dyson’s path to victory lies in consolidating the anti-Liberal vote behind himself to reach at least 30% on primaries to reduce preference leakage, and increasing his margins in the big towns like Warrnambool and Portland to 60% 2CP (currently both 55%ish 2CP) to better offset the inevitable big Liberal wins in the many smaller towns. Evidently he needs to get Tehan’s primary a bit lower too, around 40% probably, which is a tough ask in a blue ribbon electorate.

Looking at booth results, it’s clear where Dyson’s campaign was weak – basically anywhere where Labor was substantially outpolling Dyson like Ararat, Colac, and Portland. Strong points were Warrnambool and the Surf Coast. It’s a big electorate to campaign and Dyson might be tired of it given he’s run twice. Therefore incumbency gives Tehan a big advantage.

Kind of agree GPPS – an independent can win if they can secure a solid anti Liberal vote that isn’t the Green curious voters in the touristy/sea change part. Better if not associated with the “teal” movement and more an anti-politics rural independent. Dyson put in.a solid effort but I think he’s tapped out and seems too much like a Greens candidate – you’d want someone older and with a farming background or something like that.

No shot here with lnp in opposition

@ GPPS
One challenge in regional seats where the Teal ran and made the 2CP (Cowper, Calare and Wannon) is that there is a higher right wing minor party vote (ONP, UAP etc) so the L/NP can win with a lower primary vote for example in Cowper the Nats only got 39% primary and won which was actually a lower primary than JF got in Kooyong or Katie Allen got in Higgins. The more affluent inner city seats the right wing minor party vote is very low so the Libs need around 45% primary to win.

@nimalan the the libs tend to fare better in opposition against independents especially the national because they don’t waver from their base. Hence why they won swan Hill and shepparton back from left leaning independants

@ John
Fair point. However, my point was more about how high the L/NP primary vote needs to be to defend various seats from challengers rather than making a prediction on the likelihood of Teals winning rural seats. In an affluent seat there is no way the L/NP can win with 39% of the primary vote. Dan Tehan could have theoretically got a lower primary vote than JF and won the seat against a Teal challenger.

@John @Nimalan that’s because the centrist or centre-right independents are often defects from the Nationals who end up becoming independents and want to support a Liberal leader from the Moderate faction but end up supporting Labor despite their communities being conservative. Hence why Rob Oakeshott became really unpopular in Lyne and Tony Windsor became really unpopular in New England, because these are among the safest seats in the country. While northeastern NSW has throughout history leaned conservative, Cowper, Lyne and New England have always been conservative, including in the main cities of Armidale, Coffs Harbour, Port Macquarie, Tamworth and Taree. Labor has never won a state or federal seat that includes Port Macquarie or Taree; Labor has also never won a state seat that includes Coffs Harbour and they’ve only won a federal seat that includes Coffs Harbour once in history (Cowper in 1961, Sir Earle Page died without knowing he’d narrowly lost his seat).

@nether portal the curent independants in parliament are left of centre independants masquerading as centrists to win over votes from the coalition. if you notice most of their votes come from labor. the exception of that rule is dai le and to an extent andrew gee though he was elected as a national. it will be interesting to see if he can hold calare as an independant. i dont think any more independants will get up this coming election with the exception of maybe Bradfield. i think monique ryan can be beaten in kooyong and Kate Chaney in Curtin due to the redistribution and realignment of voting patterns after the 2022 abnormality

@John
You say “most of their votes come from labor” but that is just a quirk of tactical voting. Though its necessity is fading given the Liberal vs Labor margin in half of them is tiny, it is still there.

On a separate note, 6 of the 7 teal seats are no longer in the “safe” category of seats (<6% margin) even in a Liberal vs Labor contest so the incumbents will be nowhere near as likely as Oakeshott or Windsor to become unpopular from backing Labor. Wannon is a bit safer on that scale at 9% so if Dyson wins but then supports Labor he *may* be in trouble at the next election.

Labor get a sugar hit from Independents up ending Coalition MPs, however, it has come at a cost. Across all of Western NSW (with the exception of Broken Hill), the mid North get Coast and Northern Sydney, Labor have been hollowed out – they are lucky to get 10% of the primary vote – that impacts on local branches and morale and that in turn impacts how you volunteers and ultimately it will affect the senate vote. Look at New England and Northern Tablelands – in the 1980s New England was a marginal seat and Northern Tablelands was a Labor state seat. Now they struggle to get 20% and that it was in a good Labor year. The same has also happened in Western and Northern Victoria – Labor are relying on a narrowing voter base – much more so than the coalition.

@leon thats a notional margin though so it cant be relied upon as accurate

The notional 2pp even if this was not the actual 2 candidates is real eg in the teal won seats in Sydney they showed the alp was outpolled by the liberals as expected

@mick quinlivan
notional
/ˈnəʊʃən(ə)l/
adjective
1.
existing as or based on a suggestion, estimate, or theory; not existing in reality.
“notional budgets for hospital and community health services”

@Ben Raue please fix the colour mistake.

The colours in the first preferences are correct but you’ve swapped them around in the TPP part. Labor should be red and Liberal should be blue. When I had a look at it I initially read it as Labor having won the TPP vote despite not coming close to winning the seat, but then I noticed the colours were wrong.