ALP 21.7%
Incumbent MP
Andrew Giles, since 2013.
- Geography
- Redistribution
- History
- Candidate summary
- Assessment
- 2019 results
- Booth breakdown
- Results maps
Geography
Outer northern suburbs of Melbourne. Scullin covers southern parts of the City of Whittlesea, including the suburbs of Mill Park, Thomastown, Lalor, South Morang and Epping.
Scullin has existed since the 1969 election, and in that time has always been held by the Labor Party, and specifically by the Jenkins family.
The seat was first won in 1969 by Harry Jenkins Sr, who had previously been a state Labor MP since 1961. Jenkins was elected Speaker of the House of Representatives upon the election of the Hawke government in 1983. He retired from Parliament in late 1985.
The 1986 Scullin by-election was won by Harry Jenkins Jr, son of the former MP. The younger Jenkins served as Deputy Speaker from 1993 to 2007, and he was elected Speaker in early 2008 after the election of the Rudd government. Jenkins was re-elected in 2010, stood down as Speaker in 2011, and retired in 2013.
Labor’s Andrew Giles won Scullin in 2013, and has been re-elected twice.
Assessment
Scullin is a very safe Labor seat.
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
| Andrew Giles | Labor | 55,467 | 60.4 | +1.0 |
| Gurpal Singh | Liberal | 20,484 | 22.3 | -3.5 |
| Cynthia Smith | Greens | 6,128 | 6.7 | -0.6 |
| Firas Hasan | United Australia Party | 4,625 | 5.0 | +5.0 |
| Rod Whitfield | Animal Justice | 3,500 | 3.8 | +0.5 |
| Yassin Akram Albarri | Independent | 1,605 | 1.7 | +1.8 |
| Informal | 5,055 | 5.2 | -0.6 |
2019 two-party-preferred result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
| Andrew Giles | Labor | 65,787 | 71.7 | +2.1 |
| Gurpal Singh | Liberal | 26,022 | 28.3 | -2.1 |
Polling places in Scullin have been divided into three parts: north, south-east and south-west.
Labor won a majority of the two-party-preferred vote in all three areas, ranging from 70.8% in the south-east to 79.8% in the south-west.
| Voter group | ALP 2PP % | Total votes | % of votes |
| South-East | 70.8 | 15,111 | 16.5 |
| North | 73.9 | 14,635 | 15.9 |
| South-West | 79.8 | 13,437 | 14.6 |
| Pre-poll | 68.4 | 32,371 | 35.3 |
| Other votes | 70.2 | 16,255 | 17.7 |
Election results in Scullin at the 2019 federal election
Toggle between two-party-preferred votes and primary votes for Labor and the Liberal Party.
I was going to jokingly call this a Liberal gain in reference to the bullishness on the Coalition’s prospects, but that bullishness has since died down.
Liberal Candidate was a real dud here last time hence the swing to labor here.
MAJORS LAST!!….it’s the only way outa this sh1t show nightmare! 😖😖
I had hoped to vote for the Animal Justice Party. Am very disappointed. That said, I know whom to put last on the ticket and shall research Doctor Google for information on each of the other four candidates! This election is our chance to turn the rotten tide around!!!!
There was an interesting article (Link below) i read in the aftermath of the last federal election suggesting that the Libs should look at this in the future due to the strong Anti-Andrews sentiment. I compared federal result with the overlapping state result looking at same booths. What i found was that unlike areas such as Hume LGA or Brimbank LGA, the Labor primary vote was actually better by an average around 3-4% in each booth. However, the TPP against Labor was worse due to the Put Labor last strategy. It seems in Whittlesea LGA like South East Melbourne the anti-lockdown sentiment stated to deflate with the lapse of time.
A few examples
ALP Primary vote
Mernda Park Fed-45.4 State 45.9
Epping Views Fed-45.7 state 49.1
Lalor East Fed 46 state 49.8
Plenty Parklands PS: Fed 40.8 State-45.2
South Morang Fed-42.3 State 47.6
Norris Bank: Fed 47.3 state 48.5
Findon Fed: 46.8 State-52.9
In these sort of seats the postal/prepoll was not that different for Labor compared to the election day vote so Labor primay vote was definately higher at the state election even when Andrews was the subject of the election.
https://www.skynews.com.au/australia-news/the-liberals-need-to-embrace-their-working-class-voters-to-win-over-the-outersuburban-freedom-fighters/news-story/2213b607fc9c81f8627de427f92871f8
Apart from maybe Lalor, I don’t see these areas as being as disadvantaged as the Hume and Brimbank LGAs, and the anti-Andrews lockdowm swings seem to be most concentrated in those areas.
@ Adam,
Totally agree Whittlesea LGA does not really have the same level disadvantage as much of NW Melbourne. Even in Hume LGA there was variation with the growth areas of Cragieburn/Mickleham in the seat of Kalkallo held up quite well for Labor with only a 4% swing while the swings around Meadow Heights were perhaps the most violent against Labor. However, the SE of Melbourne between Springvale-Doveton has the same level of disadvanatage as Brimbank/most of Hume but did not swing much.
Will be interesting to see if Labor cave in to the pressure to get rid of Andrew Gilles.
i know this libs wont win but given his string of problems could an independent win here