Robertson – Australia 2022

Will be very close

Starting to get positive vibes for Labor here.

This is a seat which has received remarkably little attention – especially considering it doesn’t need a big swing to fall. It has also been mentioned in the last few days as a seat where the Libs are in trouble – and if the swing is on, that may really be the case. Any local intel out there?

If the polls are to believed it’s seats like Robertson, Lindsay, Casey, Pearce and Deakin that will be close. Seems all the attention is being given to seats with smaller margins like Chisholm, Reid, Swan which Labor should easily win theoretically on a uniform swing.

Real tight race here. It’s been a bellweather seat since 1983 (that’s 8 Prime Ministers) and yet has gotten little attention.

I guess it’s because the outer-suburban mortage belt seats are less interesting than say, inner-city, small-l liberal seats and regional Queensland and Tasmanian seats.

I’d be suprised Labor is ahead by this much in Robertson because Robertson hasn’t had as much chatter as Reid, Swan, Pearce, Chisholm, or Boothby. It’s certainly in play for Labor though.

“Industry Association of 800 respondents per seat showed Liberals incumbents trailing 58-42 in Robertson”.

Robertson ALP booth volunteers posting on pollbludger seem positive about the crowd response so far…

Our real problem here is the empty shop growing community and not much infucsturture, real problems lie with the local and state. Whoever wins I hope it’s the party in charge and wants to hold onto the seat and do some real work!

What happened to the TNL?

I live in Roberson. The ALP candidate is popular and personable and a doctor. Looking good to win. But the corflute coverage and advertising has been way stronger from the Libs here. ALP don’t seem to have spent nearly as much as the Libs in Dobell, Robertson, Paterson and Shortland where I’ve been this week.

@Su is it true that the Libs have campaigned hard in Shortland? I don’t think they’ve ever held that seat.

I know the candidate in Paterson is a well-connected photogenic ex-staffer, but didn’t seem to detect much momentum for her.

Local here, not much advertisement for Alp candidate BUT could be a big win for them as there are lot of health care workers, including myself, that were visited by various union reps weeks leading up and will all be voting labor.
That goes for everywhere else too. Don’t underestimate the voting influence of one of the biggest industries in the country.

Labor overperformed here compared to 2007 and 2010 despite the statewide TPP for Labor being lower than 2007 last time Labor took government. Robertson was one of the first seats to be called as a Labor gain on election night after Chisholm. If the Libs want to find a path to government that excludes the inner city this must be one of the first pick ups but if Dr Gordon Reid builds a personal vote that makes it the more difficult.

@Nimalan if I recall Reid was the first one to be called that flipped, followed by Chisholm. Robertson was the third one. Doesn’t change that the Libs need to win here if they want to forego the inner city like what the hard right faction wants.

Agree @Nimalan, my assessment after parsing through the latest census data was that Hunter & Central Coast divisions including Robertson, Dobell, Shortland, Hunter and Paterson stand-out as outliers amongst the demographics of other Labor seats. These divisions overlap far more frequently with demographic common with the Coalition clusters, particularly the QLD LNP seats.

My conclusion is that Labor’s strategy in the regions worked here, in particular, their pre-selection of a unique character like Repacholi for punters in the Hunter region to rally around.

My other conclusion was that there was a significant disaffection of NSW Liberal supporters which could be pinned down to their pre-selection shambles. This disaffection was expressed in Eastern Sydney with the swing to Independents, and expressed in the regions that weren’t contested by the Nationals with a swing to Labor.

I believe that Queensland had a much softer swing away from the Coalition because the NSW Liberal pre-selection drama was not registered by punters. The LNP operated as effective as they needed to as an election campaign machine with no major dramas besides the Matt Canavan comments. They held off Labor, copping their biggest swings in inner-city seats that Greens really performed strong.

I still think Coalition might find success federally in the short to medium term by pivoting to a similar model in regional NSW as the Queensland LNP arrangement. If pursuing this model, they will just have to be prepared to lose almost all hopes of affluent, inner-city, “blue-ribbon” divisions to teal-like candidates. While pursuing this strategy might not lead to a victory in 2025, it might lead to a bigger cross-bench and a Labor minority government, which the Coalition might be able to take advantage of from opposition.

Conversely, Morrison’s suggestion is a new progressive “Matt-Kean’esque” Liberal brand targeted at the blue-ribbon seats. I honestly think that the blue-ribbon seats, as some of the most politically-engaged punters in the country, will see through the exercise.

@ Dan M agree i forgot about Reid
@ SEQ Observer, i agree the entire F3 Corridor (including the Hunter region seats you mentioned) will be critical for Labor in 2025. It is imperative that these MPs work hard and deliver results. I agree the Dan Repacholi was an excellent captain’s pick especially when considering KK in Fowler (unmitigated disaster) and Andrew Charlton in Parramatta (western part with large South Asian communities revolted against Labor). i agree that preselection issues with the NSW branch played apart especially in Dobell but in Robertson there was a well known sitting member in Lucy Wicks. Labor’s plan to upgrade the rail corridor to enable Faster Rail will be essential for it to retain seats in the F3 Corridor. The Central Coast is becoming popular for remote/hybrid workers similar to Corangamite (Vic). My advise would be for Labor to launch their 2025 campaign from Newcastle and have these MPs as key note speakers. IMHO launching their campaign from Optus Stadium in 2022 and having Zaneta has a keynote speaker was a masterstroke and helped them in WA. In QLD, the Coalition held their ground outside inner Brisbane but made no inroads in Labor held seats such as Blair, Lilley etc

@Nimalam, my reference to NSW pre-selection drama was not limited to the aforementioned Hunter & Central Coast seats, it was more related to all NSW pre-selection problems including late selections. My observation of the sentiment was that many NSW Liberal supporters and members all over the state were upset that their voices were being overridden by Morrison at the very top. As well as disappointment in the party machinery for leaving particular selections to so late.

@SEQ Observer, Good point, Bennelong preselection was also done at the very last minute same with Hughes.

As mass political party membership has rapidly declined, the major parties are left with a shrinking number of mostly older members. Therefore the ongoing disenfranchisement of their own members is now causing real problems with manning polling booths to hand out HTVs. Young people are not joining, and those that do will probably get pushed out once they’re seen as lining up with one faction or the other and some trivial Instagram post will be used to hound them out, etc. The parties have made their own rod and are now starting to be broken by it.

I’m curious after Robertson what is the next longest bellwether I have a feeling liberals will win thus but Labor retain govt?

I’m pretty sure its Reid. 2007-now, 6 in a row. And after that it’s Bennelong with only 4 in a row. Interestingly of the 10 seats Labor won in 2022, only Robertson, Reid and Bennelong were lost in 2013!

@drake Robertson dates back to 1983. Surely there’s something closer

Labor hold baring a major change in boundaries. I was actually surprised Labor gained this in 2022 despite it being a belweather. I thought the swing Wicks achieved towards her in 2019 would be enough to hold in 2022. Indeed. I thought Labor has little chance picking this up unless they won relatively decent majority of around 83 seats.

I will remind people this almost was a Liberal hold in 2007 despite Labor winning 83 seats.

This seat probably tilts Liberal ever so slightly but is a marginal. But Labor wins when they win gov. Labor did hold in 2010 with a new candidate but I suspect the Libs were focused on gaining Lindsay and Greenway more than this in 2010.

This is the sort of seat that is a must win for the Libs. Infact I would go as far to say this is the Ohio of Australia. The coalition will not win 76 without this seat. The demographics meaning the cost of living and interest rates hit hard here. Must win for the Libs or they can kiss goodbye even being the largest party.

@john

Nope. Worth bearing in mind that, Reid and Robertson are the only 2 seats that voted correctly in the last 5 elections. Which seems crazy to think but I’m pretty sure it’s true

@sounds about right. i went through them myself and nsw was until recently the swing state meaning the arty that won gov ahd the most seats federally in nsw. i think reid will stop being a bell whether as its like with the defceit in central sydney hat it will move eastwards.

Among the seats that flipped to Labor outside WA, Robertson was interesting as it really was the only traditional bellwether. The Other seats had large Chinese communities such as Reid/Bennelong or small l liberal/teal voters (Boothby/Higgins).

@Daniel T on the state level you can divide the Central Coast like this:

Eastern Central Coast (The Entrance, Tuggerah and Bateau Bay): federal seat of Dobell, state seat of The Entrance (usually a bellwether but very narrowly won by Labor in 2015, then again with a 5% margin in 2019 and a 7% margin in 2023); bellwether that leans Labor but winnable for the Liberals
Northern/Northeastern Central Coast (Wyong and Budgewoi): federal seat of Dobell, state seats of Wyong and partially Swansea (which is also in Newcastle); Labor-voting, working-class area
Southeastern Central Coast (Terrigal, East Gosford and Erina): mostly in the federal seat of Robertson but partially in Dobell, state seat of Terrigal; Liberal-voting area
Southern Central Coast (Gosford and Woy Woy): federal seat of Robertson, state seat of Gosford (usually a bellwether but Labor very narrowly won it in 2015, won it with a 7% margin in 2019 and with a 10% margin in 2023)
Western Central Coast (Peats Ridge and Somersby): federal seat of Robertson, state seat of Gosford; very-Liberal voting area in the rural hinterland bordering Wisemans Ferry in the Hawkesbury region

So the southeastern (affluent, beachside and touristy, like the Northern Beaches) and western (rural hinterland) parts of the Central Coast are the most Liberal-voting, the northern (working-class) parts are the most Labor-voting, while the southern (urban and bayside) and eastern (beachside and touristy) parts are bellwether regions.

My redistribution has a new (notionally Liberal) seat created in the Hawkesbury that would take Peats Ridge and Somersby from Robertson, but that doesn’t mean Robertson isn’t a battleground seat anymore; indeed, I left Terrigal and Erina in Robertson which are very Liberal-voting suburbs.

@Nimalan that is a good point since most of the traditional bellwethers were either won by Labor in 2016 or 2019 and weren’t regained (Dobell, Dunkley, Eden-Monaro, Solomon, etc) or were held by the Coalition before 2022 and were retained by the Coalition in 2022 (Bass, Braddon, Lindsay, Longman, Page, etc). I wouldn’t even call Page (the safe Nationals seat that includes Grafton and Lismore in northern NSW) a bellwether seat anymore, nor would I call Braddon (the fairly safe Liberal seat in western and northwestern Tasmania, including the cities of Burnie and Devonport) a bellwether anymore either.

Of the five seats I mentioned as former bellwethers that voted for the Coalition in 2022, in four of them (Bass, Braddon, Lindsay and Page) there was actually a swing to the Coalition, while in Longman in northern Brisbane (including Caboolture and Strathpine), there was a swing against the LNP of 0.20% on a TPP basis.

Another seat that could have once been called a bellwether is the Townsville-based seat of Herbert, which in 2022 was won by the LNP with 61.77% of the TPP vote, which is surprisingly higher than in any of the three Gold Coast based seats (all of which are blue-ribbon seats); the LNP TPP in Fadden was 60.63% (this rose to 63.35% at the 2023 by-election), McPherson was 59.34% and in Moncrieff it was 61.19%.

The seat of Makin in Adelaide used to be considered a bellwether too, but in 2013 it voted Labor and the seat hasn’t been won by the Liberals since 2004, when they narrowly won it.

Though I would argue the Liberals did quite well in South Australia under John Howard. In 2007 the Liberals almost won the primary vote in South Australia and at every other election Howard contested as PM he won a majority of seats in South Australia.

@Nimalan and @Neither Portal, I would also say Chisholm under current boundaries would have been a Bellwether since 2004. They even have 5 out of the 31 Nation’s Bellwether (although that was before 2022 election).

@Nether Portal
Reid/Lowe was actually improving for the Libs prior to 2022. Using Ben’s analysis on the thread link below. Gentrification along the waterfront has enabled this we can also see the same trend in the NSW state seat of Drummoyne.
I agree with you i dont see Labor winning Page, Herbert, Bass, Braddon or Longman in 2025. Interestingly it took 23 years for Labor to win Braddon after loosing it in 1975 and i would not surprised if it takes that long again.
From a demographic perspective, i would see Petrie, Forde, Hasluck, Lindsay, Macarthur (subject to boundaries), Deakin as good bellwethers as they mostly mortgage belt or in the case of Deakin a very middle Australia seat. I do agree with Makin it used to be a bellwether the boundaries are slightly better for Labor now compared to the Howard era.

https://www.tallyroom.com.au/47432

@ Marh
I agree with you regarding Chisholm it is also a good bellwether and once again a middle class area. Most of Chisholm is demographically similar to Bennelong and a lot of Moreton is also simmilar to Chisholm. However, of the pick up from the Libs that Labor made in 2022 i think Chisholm, Reid and Swan are the safest retains as they all have a more settled and diverse population.

Not just Chisholm though, it is even the case for the rest of Melbourne Eastern Middle Ring which in fact there was once even a tie (first and only in Australia’s history) in 1985 for the Nunawading Province (the previous version of the Victorian upper house).

i wonder how the struggling people of robertson will feel that the PM is just about to move into his $4.3M house in Copacabana

Copacabana is an affluent beachside suburb.

@Np yea i figured that you dont see many houses in the ghetto going for $4.3M do you

so now theyre talking about the $100M taxpayer funded road to albos new digs

Interesting prospect here but Lucy Wicks, the last Liberal MP here, has put her hand up for preselection. So too has Michael Feneley, the Liberal candidate for Dobell in 2022.

Lucy wicks is once again the candidate for Robertson. That along with the relatively small margin of 2.2% has me putting this as a probable liberal gain. It would be ironic if in future Albos local mp is a liberal. Haha.

@Darth Vader well Steven Miles’ federal MP has been an LNP member since 2010.

@np yea but it’s funny since albos just moved there and may end up cosying what’s his name his seat

Of the current marginals in New South Wales, I think this could end up being the most marginal seat after the election:
– The other ultra-marginal regional seats of Gilmore (0.2%) and Paterson (2.6%) would be expected to flip quite easily
– The wealthier seats of Parramatta (3.7%) and Reid (5.2%) are more likely to resist the overall trend however
– Hunter (4.2%) and Werriwa (5.3%) might be a bit far up the pendulum at this stage, although they do have demographics that Dutton can capitalise on

This will swing to the Coalition, but it may be mitigated if Gordon Reid gets a sophomore boost, and if electorates with larger amounts of retirees feel like they’ve done alright throughout the cost-of-living crisis.

Has Gordon Reid done enough locally to avoid returning the seat back to Lucy Wicks?

@Angas as currently there’s an expected 2.5% swing in New so that puts Robertson at risk.