Pearce – Australia 2022

Labor gain, Regardless of whether the allegations against the sitting member are true or not the fact is unless he is proven not guilty (Although he is innocent until proven guilty) there are many folks who won’t vote for him because of the allegations. The Liberals have a better chance at holding Ken Wyatt in Hasluck due to his popularity in that seat and because he is Indigenous minister.

Morrison would be hurt if he comes here to campaign with Porter due to the allegations. The best chance the Liberals have here is if Porter retires or if Porter runs, Run a solo campaign that doesn’t involve bringing the PM in because this is a Lewinsky 2.0

Wanneroo Mayor Tracey Roberts has been endorsed by the Labor party to be their candidate in Pearce.

You have to remember that Porter committed an act of treason against the people of WA by defending Clive Palmer. Porter should never be allowed back in the state. Regardless of the other issues he was in serious trouble.

It’s not Lewinsky 2.0 because there (1) Clinton lies and (2) Lewinsky had evidence to prove her allegations. By contrast Porter’s accuser is a dead woman who was suffering from a psychiatric illness.

Pearce would be a better fit for Vince Connelly than Cowan. I think that Porter is finished and he would be too damaged goods (whether innocent or not) to hold on here.

The Liberal party should field Vince Connelly instead of Porter which would give them a chance of holding on here. It feels like to me that they want to give Labor a free go.

The loss of the chunk of regional Western Australia this seat used to occupy has also seen the seat lose a share of conservative voters which, like other seats in the Metro Perth area, would otherwise anchor it to the Liberals despite whatever way the more volatile parts of the seat would vote (i.e. Tangney with Applecross/Melville, Moore with Hillarys/Duncraig and Curtin with Cottesloe/Nedlands).

What’s left in Pearce post-redistribution are swinging industrial suburbs (like Wangara) and swinging new growth suburbs (like Butler/Alkimos), combined with an MP who’s most likely seen the loss of a decent personal vote.

Labor gain.

Each time Porter seems to start being forgotten about something new surfaces. I honestly can not see how the LNP will hold to this seat with him contesting it in 2022, if LNP don’t want to loose this seat they’ll move Vince Connelly here.

What has happened to Porter is not just a tragedy for him, but for Australia. The ABC, & Turnbull have ended his political career, using foul means, not fair. He would have been a great (next0 PM. Instead we will get Albo, or Josh. Forgive me for being underwhelmed.
Bob is right Porter ought to stand down , & Vince Connelly ought to stand in Pearce.

So when will the by election be. If Porter remains as the local member he is a very confident / arrogant fellow.

Just to talk to all the eastern staters: No one lives in Wangara. In Perth there’s a bunch of industrial areas which have no residential areas whatsoever.

If there was a by-election it would be contested on the old boundaries which would make the Libs’ position very hard because places like Ellenbrook have swung 30% to Labor in the space of two state elections.

https://www.tallyroom.com.au/aus2022/pearce2022/comment-page-1#comment-756264

I take this is a nod to my comment.

I lived in WA for 10 years and virtually all of my family is from there, albeit from suburbs a little south.

Probably best to ignore that comment on my part, was based on the marginal booths around Wangara (i.e. Darch & Pearsall) and my attempt to apply what little knowledge I could scrape of the area together, it’s obviously not a place I’d often venture to so take my comments lightly.

Back to Pearce, I suspect Porter won’t return to the next parliament regardless, aside from being voted out there’s more than a dozen state MP’s who’ve recently lost their seats who’d surely be eyeing federal politics, so a preselection challenge seems likely.

Angus most of the state liberals who lost their seats are not from this area, whether the new or old Pearce. If a bi election was held it would be based on Ellenbrook which at state level.is Labor stronghold, the northern suburbs also Labor stronghold and Avon nationals stronghold. There is probably not a lot of liberal infrastructure in this region

To be fair, Porter’s electorate office will soon be redundant, as Ellenbrook moves into Hasluck. However, given Victoria is losing voters at a dime a dozen, WA might get a 16th seat again, which will make the boundaries more confusing.

EDITED extract of the report in the OZ of Christian Porters resignation

He said his decision came down to breaking the confidentiality of the blind trust or foregoing his cabinet position and there was “only one choice I could, in all conscience, make”.

“Consequently, I provided the Prime Minister with my resignation,” he said.
“It is effective immediately.”
Mr Porter said people had contributed to his legal fees case against the ABC under “well-known and regular legal structures” and did so on the “belief that their contribution would remain confidential”.

“Even though I suspected action against the taxpayer-funded broadcaster was probably going to be financially unsustainable, as it ultimately was, I decided I had to commence action against the ABC,” he said.

“Whilst I have no right of access to the funding or conduct of the trust, on my request the trustee provided me an assurance that none of the contributors were lobbyists or prohibited foreign entities,” he said. “This additional information was provided as part of my ministerial disclosure.”

“No doubt the desire of some, possibly many, of those contributors to remain anonymous was driven by a natural desire to avoid the inevitable fact that for supporting me, the trial by mob would inevitably turn on them if they were identified.”

Mr Porter also chose to escalate his criticism of the ABC on Sunday, accusing it of creating a “new standard … without due process or fairness”, which meant allegations could now be considered sufficient to result in an accusation being published and unleashing an “inescapable media frenzy where the evidence … appeared to be irrelevant.”

“All that appeared to matter was the presence of an accusation.
“To my disbelief, even in some mainstream media the onus of proof was completely reversed,” Mr Porter said.
“From that point, when the reporting on both social media generally and in parts of the mainstream media shifted from a presumption of innocence to one of guilt, an impossible standard was set for any person to meet ¬ politician or not.

“It has resulted in constant abuse and ongoing threats. For me personally, the physical threats of violence, the experience of being spat at and publicly abused for something I didn’t do has been nearly beyond comprehension in a civilised country.”

Mr Porter will now move to the backbench but said he had “no intention” of standing aside from his responsibilities to the people of Pearce – the electorate to which he was elected in 2013.
Mr Porter said it was clear the public broadcaster had selectively chosen evidence that fed into its “narrative of guilt” and he had obtained, from a source outside the ABC, a “copy of the only signed document that the person who made and subsequently withdrew the complaint ever made”.

“Many parts of that 88-page document are such that any reasonable person would conclude that they show an allegation that lacks credibility; was based on repressed memory (which has been completely rejected by courts as unreliable and dangerous); which relied on diaries said to be drafted in 1990-91 but which were actually words composed in 2019; and was written by someone who was, sadly, very unwell,” he said.

“Presumably because this document detracts so substantively from the credibility of the allegations there has been careful and deliberate avoidance in reporting it or publishing the parts of it that run counter to the chosen narrative.”
The consequence of setting in motion its “trial by accusation” was the unleashing of “the Twitter version of an angry mob”, which had no regard for evidence and turned on anyone who “contradicted the narrative of guilt by accusation”.

“So fierce and vengeful is the response of the Twitter mob to anyone who dares say anything contrary to the narrative of guilt that those people then come to be deemed to commit a form of social crime for defending the subject of the unproven allegation and the mob turns on them,” he said.
Mr Porter’s decision to resign and go to the backbench continues the fall from grace of a politician once touted as a future prime minister.

Porter himself used to represent Bateman, well below the Swan River, so it’s not exactly unheard of.
If it went to a by-election I don’t think the result would really change, Labor gain with 2-3% to spare.

Sportsbet is hugely underestimating Labors chances here on seat of the week. Why would an accused rapist and someone who got into a recent scandal of COI win here? No chance. absolutely 0% chance of holding on here. they should run Vince Connelly here instead. I would compare Porter’s situation to Justin Fairfax in Virginia who being the LT governor should have been favoured to be nominee or at least do well in the primary for governor this year. He had accusers and he placed 5th I believe in the primary barely reaching 5%.

I do believe in are judicial system so Mr.Porter is innocent until proven guilty however many voters will be reluctant to vote for him because of the accusations. even many moderate L liberals who voted Labor at the state election may ”lend” their vote to Labor this time just to kick Porter out.

I suspect the coalition will last minute retire Porter just to save this seat but the longer they leave it the more vulnerable they become. They should announce Porter’s retirement before Christmas in my opinion.

Peter van Onselen said on Insiders polling suggested Pearce at the moment was gone whether Christian Porter was the candidate or not.

The boundaries have changed, basically 40% of the voters aren’t Porter’s constituents currently, but Roberts is well-known, and Porter would be up for a bloody tough fight if the pandemic and all his personal stupidity hadn’t occurred.

There is speculation that Christian Porter won’t recontest Pearce. Apparently the Liberals will do a poll on Pearce but Porter may walk away anyway regardless of the outcome of that poll. The Liberals will search for a female canidate if Porter decides not to recontest Phillip Coorey reported in the Australian Financial Review.

Maybe this is to save Porter the embarrassment of losing his seat. This is a mortgage belt area and Labor have put up a better candidate this time.

Could this be a Liberal hold now that Porter is retiring? Doubt it if the polling holds but maybe they will have a better chance.

They’ll probably lose anyway, but Porter drags the whole ticket down regardless. It’s not just about Pearce.

Liberal party have a chance of holding on here however, ALP still have a real shot here as well.

Liberals stand a much better chance now that Porter is off the ticket though seems more likely than not that Labor will pick up Pearce. Labor will outperform in WA by just associating itself with the McGowan government so if Labor wins the election would expect them to pick up this seat.

Linda Aitken has been preselected as the new Liberal candidate for Pearce.

Does she support Morrison? Does she support Porter despite his behaviour? Does she support Mark McGowan’s lockdowns?

I ask this because if she is someone like a Celia Hammond, Hammond could never win in a seat like this. Far too socially conservative to win. If she become a Nicolle Flint 2.0 she is sure to lose. If she is a Julia Bishop I could see her making it quite far in the caucus if she is elected.

Conservative populism is not popular in Australia and anyone who suggests so is being ridiculous. I often get called out for making absurd predictions but I’ll tell you this. Are you supporting these far-right trump style candidates? Because it sounds like you are saying you want them to win rather than what you THINK will happen.

The Liberals hold NO seats in this federal seat. and they are in danger of losing this (too) so a strong candidate with moderate credentials will help them win. I do not buy Zak Kirkup’s green energy hurt them. It helped them to perhaps keep moderate liberal voters.

I don’t live in WA but I can tell you the sorts of policies I’m talking about (Neo-liberal/conservative populist) policies are not popular and I have spoken with many people in the community who tell me this.

This isn’t a shoe in for Labor but I’d give them a 60% chance

Politics is more complicated than lab growing politicians to hit some perceived median voter. Just ask the Democrats

Careful Daniel
Porter had no “Behaviour” as you infer. Ancient Allegations are not evidence of anything. If anyone’s behaviour ought to be called out it’s Jo Dyer. Did she pressure the unfortunate woman into resurrecting this tragedy ? Did this lead to her sad end, & suicide ?. For what ? To destroy the life & career of a potential PM ? Don’t you think one of Porter’s ex wives would have had something to say if there were any substance to all this innuendo ?.
I don’t find your constant assessment of LNP REPS political leanings to be convincing. Mostly it’s really about whether the MPs hold, genuine values, & beliefs, like for example service, devotion, duty, & love. If not they tend to mostly be in the the shallow end not the deep end. Perhaps you might consider that.
Perhaps also that Porter could have earned 5 times his salary as AG, as just another SC.

Furtive Lawngnome
God ! Are we on the same track here !?
BTW i agree with you.

I still think Labor will probably win this along with Swan and maybe Hasluck. Beyond that, I’m skeptical that Labor will get more than a 5% statewide swing in WA.

Daniel, please stop. How many times does it need to be pointed out that the representation or lack thereof of a party at the state level DOES NOT mean that the same party can’t do well federally. Are we forgetting Beattie/Howard? Howard/Carr? Bailieu/Gillard? Are we really going to accept the nebulous and unproven assertion that Covid has somehow changed what has hitherto been accepted electoral fact?

Really Wreathy?

Everyone in WA would actually rather be locked off from everyone else at the moment. Fact. None of you lot can speak on this because you don’t live here and don’t really seem to grasp how unpopular the Libs are. Btw, Linda Aitken is a member of Margaret Court’s far-right Pentecostal church so any chances of being moderate are well and truly off. She’s run (and failed to win) Butler three times in a row, so I don’t see her chances of electoral success being awfully large.

We’ve heard tales of large pro-Labor swings in WA for what? Three elections in a row now? Swings which never materialised I might add, so pardon me for being skeptical!

Oh and the whole “you don’t live here so you can’t comment” argument is total rubbish. By that logic, I would expect never again to hear a word from you on Labor’s prospects in NSW since you don’t live here. More to the point, if we’re gonna take that attitude then what the hell are we all doing on this site?

Wreathy of Sydney
I’m with you.
Wait until Albo arrives in Feb along with the “dream team”!. They are just too embarrassing.
Still if they really go well , saying deep & meaningful stuff like “climate is more important than China” to the alliance (albo).”We support mining” !!. You never know they might even make Cowan a contest !!!. Just kidding not even Albo could stuff it all up that badly.
cheers WD

Ryan Spencer
I’ll post in Swan

Maybe you’re right Ryan and maybe this is hubristic of me but I see a lot of parallels between Queensland and Western Australia; we loved our lockdowns until we suddenly didn’t, we loved the LNP until we suddenly didn’t, we loved our Clive Palmer until shock horror, turns out he’s not a very nice fellow after all, and *then* figured out actually, an awful lot of weirdos seem happy to forgive and forget everything he’s done after all, not least of all to the miners. Similarly, In August 2018 Labor annihilated the Libs at the Victorian state election; it was just accepted as fact that Federal Labor would cake walk in Victoria as well, and every poll had them in the lead right up until election night. Of course it turned out that actually, Labor weren’t nearly as beloved/Liberals nearly so despised as everyone just assumed them to be. McGowan won big in the WA staties when voters relied on him to keep the coof off them while the Liberals were being psychotically blase about it, but who’s to say they’re still going to keep being as patient by May when everyone’s who can be vacc’d/boosted already has been, or when the virus is endemic to Western Australia despite everything?

I’m usually happy to make relatively bold declarations on far-flung political events if I can see that the reasons for why things are aren’t likely to change, but if the case for a party’s viability largely rests on the months/years old scandalous headlines of another then you’re building your election hopes on quicksand. Electoral brands matter, so does organising and keeping your finger on the pulse of a fickle and forgetful electorate. A lot of people figure they’re alright Jack under Morrison even if they view the state organisations as clown cars.

Furtive Lawngnome
A whole post & i can’t find anything to disagree with….! This is becoming a concern…
cheers WD

Like the very Christian Porter the Liberal Party will be out of Pearce after the Federal Election.

I think it is most likely that Labor does not win this seat. The retirement of Christian Porter means that people aren’t going to vote against the Liberals just to kick Porter out. Combine that with Mark McGowan’s growing unpopularity makes me think the Liberals will most likely retain this seat, and all of their other seats in Western Australia.

And I was right. The West Australian is reporting today that support for Mark McGowan has plummeted since December 2021. There is now no way that Labor wins this seat at the next election.

Damo, I would probably wait until election night to announce that you’re right. Anything can happen between now and then. Linda Aitken could get caught kicking a puppy.

Damo, This is ASP party hack Murdoch talk. To suggest Swan will stay with the Liberals or to even suggest the coalition will retain government. People’s Voice polling is not accurate. They are an infamous polling organisation. I wouldn’t trust them.

Mcgowans ratings have not plummeted to the extent you think they have. It is still well above 60% My advice is don’t read everything you see in the newspaper!

The coalition is not going to win the election. something their supporters need to start to accept. I accepted when you guys won the previous 3 times. But this time you are not going to win. Democracy.

You can’t suggest their won’t be a swing against the Gov in WA. Look at the polls. The newspoll disagrees with you.

Polling last week in the West Australian suggests that Labor is ahead 55-45 in Pearce. The lack of a sitting MP combined with a significant swing against the Liberals, particularly in mortgage belt seats like Pearce, makes it likely to be won by Labor. This seat at a state level also swung heavily to Labor at the last state election. While people can and do differentiate between state and federal politics, the relative popularity of the state government will help them.

Pearce and Swan are the low fruit pickings for Labor in WA, would be surprised if they didn’t pick both of these seats up comfortably. Hasluck is close to a 50/50 contest with a decent incumbent Liberal MP in Ken Wyatt. Tangney is a realistic chance but the Liberals will remain favourites. What traditionally was the safest Liberal seat in WA, Curtin looks to be a 50/50 contest between the (ill-fitting) sitting Liberal MP Celia Hammond and teal independent Kate Chaney.

Agree with basically everything you said Malcolm. Labor can put Pearce and Swan in their column, and other than that there will be a lot of tight marginals in WA that previously weren’t so marginal. Hasluck and Tangney are in a similar situation in my eyes, as Tangney has a higher margin with an unpopular MP, but Hasluck has a smaller margin with a popular MP, I see these as roughly evening out. I’d like to see more about Curtin, as the margin right now is simply so large that I think the Liberals must be favored, Celia Hammond doesn’t scream Tony Abbott levels of swing against her.

Prediction: LIB Retain, margin under 1%

The sole reason I think the Libs won’t win this seat is Linda Aitken. She’s run for Butler three times, lost three times, and you’ve got to wonder whether given her past experience of abysmal failure whether she’s the sacrificial lamb. Tracey Roberts is by far the stronger candidate, and whether that on top of Labor being a lot more popular than usual in WA will be enough to swing it I’m not sure.

Beyond the Greens and One Nation, minor parties running candidates in huge numbers of seats is a huge waste of money. They rarely ever get above 4%, which boggles me as to how they don’t run at a loss. The WA Party, Fed. Party, UAP, NMVP, GAP, IMOP should realistically go under pretty soon irregardless of the party membership rules

@Ryan PHON did well last time but their star has fallen a bit since 2019. I wouldn’t be surprised if they lose their deposit too.

I think Labor will pick this one up (and Swan) even if they don’t do quite as well in WA as some pundits are expecting.

Tracey has been a councillor with the City of Wanneroo since 2003 and Mayor since 2011.

She is wildly popular, and has done an a amazing job in what was for a long period, the fastest growing area in the country.

Herself and John Quigley have been a formidable team over the years and will be an absolute powerhouse when she is elected!

Even without the departure of Porter, with the redistribution which covers the entire City of Wanneroo, the seat would be lost anyway.

I suspect Pearce swan tangey hasluck/new seat will fall back to the libs at the next election. Cowan may also be uneatable as it will lose its Labor voting eastern fringe to hasluck/new division. But the new division/hasluck will be Labor notionally. Just as his electoral fortunes rose on wa I reckon they will fall just the same

John
Instinctively i agree but i’d still like to see a lot more meat on that bone