NAT 9.4%
Incumbent MP
Kevin Hogan, since 2013.
Geography
North coast of NSW. Page covers the towns of Lismore, Kyogle, Casino, Grafton, Nimbin, Woolgoolga and Yamba.
History
Page was first created for the 1984 election. The first member for Page was Ian Robinson (NAT), who had previously been member for Cowper since 1963. Robinson was defeated in 1990 by Harry Woods (ALP) after 27 years in federal parliament. The seat has gone to a party of government ever since 1990.
Woods was defeated by former state minister Ian Causley (NAT) at the 1996 election. Wood proceeded to win the by-election for Causley’s former state seat of Clarence and went on to serve as a minister in Bob Carr’s second term.
Causley served in federal Parliament for eleven years, retiring in 2007. The ALP preselected former state upper house MP and advisor to Jose Ramos Horta, Janelle Saffin, while the Nationals preselected former Mayor of Maclean Chris Gulaptis. Despite a 5.5% margin for the Nationals, the ALP won Page on a 7.8% swing.
Saffin was re-elected in 2010, but lost in 2013 to Nationals candidate Kevin Hogan. Hogan has been re-elected twice.
- Thomas Searles (Liberal Democrats)
- Donna Pike (One Nation)
- Kashmir Miller (Greens)
- Heather Smith (Federation)
- Patrick Deegan (Labor)
- Brett Duroux (Indigenous-Aboriginal Party)
- Ian Williamson (United Australia)
- Kevin Hogan (Nationals)
- Hanabeth Luke (Independent)
- Serge Killingbeck (TNL)
Assessment
Page was consistently in the marginal seat category for its entire history prior to the 2019 election, with the Nationals two-party-preferred vote usually a little bit above the statewide two-party-preferred vote for the Coalition. The swing in 2019 pushed Page into a higher bracket, but that abnormal swing may well revert at the next election, and this seat shouldn’t be considered particularly safe.
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
| Kevin Hogan | Nationals | 53,672 | 49.6 | +5.4 |
| Patrick Deegan | Labor | 28,507 | 26.4 | -8.5 |
| Dan Reid | Greens | 12,634 | 11.7 | +0.5 |
| Fiona Leviny | Independent | 5,240 | 4.8 | +4.9 |
| John Damian Mudge | United Australia Party | 3,460 | 3.2 | +3.2 |
| Alison Waters | Animal Justice | 2,646 | 2.4 | -0.4 |
| Peter Walker | Christian Democratic Party | 1,992 | 1.8 | -1.0 |
| Informal | 5,397 | 4.8 | +0.9 |
2019 two-party-preferred result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
| Kevin Hogan | Nationals | 64,295 | 59.4 | +7.2 |
| Patrick Deegan | Labor | 43,856 | 40.6 | -7.2 |
Booths in Page have been split into six parts. Booths in the three main towns of Lismore, Grafton and Casino have been grouped together. Booths in Coffs Harbour council area and the remainder of Clarence Valley council area have been grouped as “South”. Booths in the remainder of the north have been split into north-east and north-west, with those around Casino grouped as north-west and those around Lismore as north-east.
The Nationals won a majority of the two-party-preferred vote in five of these areas, winning narrowly in the north-east (52.3%), polling 59.9% in the south and polling 62-65% in Grafton, Casino and the north-west. Labor narrowly won Lismore with 50.9%.
The Greens came third, with a primary vote ranging from 4.7% in Casino to 19.3% in the north-east.
| Voter group | GRN prim % | LIB 2PP % | Total votes | % of votes |
| South | 9.4 | 59.9 | 19,282 | 17.8 |
| North-East | 19.3 | 52.3 | 12,481 | 11.5 |
| Lismore | 18.6 | 49.1 | 10,004 | 9.3 |
| Grafton | 6.3 | 62.6 | 7,502 | 6.9 |
| North-West | 12.9 | 62.5 | 4,380 | 4.0 |
| Casino | 4.7 | 64.8 | 3,517 | 3.3 |
| Pre-poll | 9.9 | 62.4 | 42,485 | 39.3 |
| Other votes | 13.4 | 59.7 | 8,500 | 7.9 |
Election results in Page at the 2019 federal election
Toggle between two-party-preferred votes and primary votes for the Nationals, Labor and the Greens.
@ GPPS
Great pick up, For Labor to win this seat they need to do well in both in Lismore around the North and Grafton in the South. I feel the Alternative Lifestyle communities such as Nimbin, The Channons, Uki etc are fairly solid left-wing so it is really Grafton (in the state seat of Clarence) that Labor needs to make inroads into to win the seat. Grafton has a blue collar vote which is why Labor often did well around there. I feel the under-performance since 2019 is another symptom of Labor doing badly in White Working Class areas. It will be good if someone from Regional NSW could make some comments on Grafton. There was an article in the aftermath of the 2019 election which detailed Grafton as one 6 key towns that turned on Labor in 2019 (link below)
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-05-20/election-2019-towns-that-turned-on-labor/11128384
Even on state election figures, where Janelle Saffin has an enormous personal vote, this seat would still be a Nationals seat. And that’s despite Labor doing 3% on the statewide 2pp in the state election. Labor’s not going to win here anytime soon unless they can reverse education polarisation. Labor has been gaining ground since 2016 in highly educated electorates and the reverse in seats with low levels of university attainment. Considering this phenomenon is happening in basically every western country, it’s kind of hard to see it change anytime soon
page wont be falling anytime soon. there is strong vote in the south near coffs harbour. until richmond neds to shed voters and page is forced to do the same
The days of Page being a bellwether are over. It’s a safe Nationals seat. Grafton is very strong for the Nationals and Casino is one of the most conservative towns in the district. Labor winning booths in Lismore won’t do enough to get passed the strong Nationals vote in the rural areas. In Cowper, Coffs Harbour, Port Macquarie (my redistribution has all of Port Macquarie moved back into Lyne) and Kempsey are all very Nationals-voting and so are Taree, Forster-Tuncurry, Wauchope and the Camden Haven region in Lyne (Lyne also covers some outer suburbs of Port Macquarie such as Sancrox, which is industrial but very safe Nationals and it has been throughout history).
Even when Labor performed well in some (mostly working-class, industrial) cities and towns in regional NSW, Labor has NEVER won a federal or state seat that includes Port Macquarie, Wauchope or the Camden Haven. They’ve always been held by conservatives. I’m not 100% sure why they bucked the trend set by some regional towns back in the day but I guess one thing to note is that Port Macquarie and the surrounding area has never had a major trade union movement, in fact I don’t even think Port Macquarie has a trades hall. Labor has only won a seat that includes Coffs Harbour and Kempsey once (Cowper in 1961, very narrowly), but I guess the same thing could be said about Coffs Harbour and Kempsey and the surrounding areas: they never had a major trade union movement either.
Having grown up on the Mid North Coast and having family there I can say from observation that a lot of union members aren’t very active in strikes and stuff and many of them vote Coalition. I’ve heard that teacher’s unions encourage members to vote Labor but teachers have said before that they don’t always (if ever) listen to that advice and may vote Coalition anyway.
As for Grafton, I can’t see Labor winning it. Lismore and the surrounding towns have some hippie communities that vote Greens so they preference Labor, combined with some actual Labor voters, which is why Lismore is a Labor town at the moment. I can’t say much about Lismore as I haven’t been there much (often you’d hear people in Grafton say things like “Lismoron [Lismoron = Lismore + moron]” and “Lismore is a shithole [shithole = a town that isn’t pleasant, clean or safe]”. But Grafton has a Nationals vote strong enough to overcome the marginal Labor wins in and around Lismore. However I would note that unlike booths in Byron Bay and the surrounding area, Lismore booths aren’t plurality Greens voting.
Interestingly, in Cowper there’s a beachside town called Crescent Head that is a bit hippie so I think it would be a Nationals-Greens contest (i.e won by the Nationals but the Greens come second) usually but it’s currently independent-Nationals (i.e won by an independent but the Nationals come second). I remember getting tacos from a Mexican takeaway restaurant there and the customers all had dreadlocks (the two Mexican ladies working there didn’t but all the customers did). I’ve only been there like once or twice though so I’m not completely sure.
In short: Page isn’t a bellwether anymore.