LIB 6.9%
Incumbent MP
Russell Broadbent, since 2019. Previously member for Corinella 1990-1993, member for McMillan 1996-1998, 2004-2019.
- Geography
- Redistribution
- History
- Candidate summary
- Assessment
- 2019 results
- Booth breakdown
- Results maps
Geography
South-eastern Victoria. Monash covers parts of Victoria stretching from the south-eastern fringe of Melbourne to the Latrobe Valley. The seat stretches from Western Port in the west to Moe in the east, and stretches down to the coast. McMillan covers the entirety of Bass Coast and South Gippsland council areas, most of Baw Baw council area and parts of the Latrobe council area. The seat covers the towns of Warragul, Moe, Wonthaggi, Leongatha and Foster.
Redistribution
Monash contracted on its western edge, losing Bunyip and Koo Wee Rup to La Trobe. This reduced the Liberal margin from 7.4% to 6.9%.
The electorate name “Monash” was introduced in 2019 as a new name for the seat of McMillan, which had been first created in 1949. The seat has mostly been held by conservative parties, although since the 1980s the ALP has won the seat on a number of occasions.
The seat was first won by Geoffrey Brown of the Liberal Party in 1949. Brown won a three-cornered contest on Country Party preferences. The Country Party occasionally would contest the seat throughout the 1950s and 1960s, but never managed to overtake the Liberal Party. Brown was reelected in 1951 and 1954 but died in 1955 before the election.
The seat was won at the 1955 election by Alexander Buchanan, also a Liberal. Buchanan held the seat for seventeen years without taking ministerial office before losing the Liberal Party’s endorsement in 1972.
Buchanan stood as an independent in 1972, and preferences from the DLP and Buchanan allowed Country Party candidate Arthur Hewson to leapfrog the official Liberal candidate and defeat the ALP candidate on Liberal preferences.
Hewson was reelected in a fierce contest in 1974, when the Liberals stood Ronald Dent against him despite a coalition agreement, and Hewson narrowly defeated Dent on primary votes before overtaking the ALP on preferences.
Hewson was defeated by Liberal candidate Barry Simon in 1975, and the Nationals never came close to winning McMillan again. Simon held the seat until 1980, when the ALP’s Barry Cunningham won it.
Cunningham held the seat throughout the 1980s, losing to John Riggall (LIB) in 1990. Riggall was defeated by Cunningham in 1993, and Cunningham was defeated by Russell Broadbent in 1996.
Broadbent had previously held the neighbouring seat of Corinella for one term from 1990 to 1993, and Corinella had been abolished at the 1996 election.
Broadbent was again defeated in 1998 by Christian Zahra, a 25-year-old ALP candidate. Zahra was made a shadow Parliamentary Secretary after the 2001 election, and was considered to have a promising career, before losing to Broadbent in 2004.
Broadbent managed to win re-election in 2007 after developing a reputation for rebelling against the Howard government’s immigration policies, and has been re-elected four more times since.
Assessment
Monash is a reasonably safe Liberal seat.
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing | Redist |
| Russell Broadbent | Liberal | 46,501 | 46.3 | -3.6 | 46.0 |
| Jessica O’Donnell | Labor | 29,656 | 29.5 | +1.8 | 29.9 |
| Jeff Waddell | One Nation | 7,656 | 7.6 | +7.6 | 7.3 |
| William Hornstra | Greens | 7,047 | 7.0 | -3.1 | 7.2 |
| Matthew Sherry | United Australia Party | 4,028 | 4.0 | +4.0 | 4.0 |
| Michael Stewart Fozard | Independent | 2,870 | 2.9 | +2.9 | 2.9 |
| John Verhoeven | Independent | 2,723 | 2.7 | +2.7 | 2.7 |
| Informal | 4,636 | 4.4 | -0.9 |
2019 two-party-preferred result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing | Redist |
| Russell Broadbent | Liberal | 57,631 | 57.4 | -0.2 | 56.9 |
| Jessica O’Donnell | Labor | 42,850 | 42.6 | +0.2 | 43.1 |
Booths have been divided into four areas, which reflect local government boundaries.
The Liberal Party won a majority of the two-party-preferred vote in two areas, with 59.8% in Baw Baw and 61.7% in South Gippsland. Labor polled 52.3% in Bass Coast and 56.5% in Latrobe.
| Voter group | GRN prim | ON prim | LIB 2PP | Total votes | % of votes |
| Baw Baw | 6.1 | 9.3 | 59.8 | 15,811 | 17.4 |
| South Gippsland | 8.2 | 6.3 | 61.7 | 13,773 | 15.2 |
| Bass Coast | 11.6 | 5.9 | 47.7 | 8,838 | 9.7 |
| Latrobe | 5.0 | 9.6 | 43.5 | 4,497 | 4.9 |
| Pre-poll | 6.3 | 6.5 | 57.0 | 37,356 | 41.1 |
| Other votes | 7.9 | 8.7 | 59.0 | 10,588 | 11.7 |
Election results in Monash at the 2019 federal election
Toggle between two-party-preferred votes and primary votes for the Liberal Party and Labor.
i actually think Bass is demographically trending Labor with a small margin of course the Libs can win it. However, important to remember Clyde is growing fast and has a large South Asian community and Bass Coast shire is seeing Sea changers moving so more like Corangamite. So i believe demographically trending Labor while Monash covers a much larger area and includes very conservative areas in South Gippsland Shire & Baw Baw Shire also Labor vote in Moe/Newborough is declining as there is de-industrailisation. Therefore it is risky for Crugnale to resign the seat to contest as it much harder ask to win Monash as she can only rely on Bass Coast Shire.
I agree with Nimalan. Crugnale shouldn’t risk becoming the next Andrew Constance – quit a state seat, the party loses the state seat at the by-election and then fails to win the federal seat. Bass is on a thin margin and can flip back to the Liberals easily, especially at a by-election.
How many Universities in Australia and especially here in Victoria have the same name as a federal electorate?
Monash, Deakin, La Trobe are the ones I can think of.
Interestingly none of these universities are within the electorates with the people they were named after.
Curtin, Griffith, Sturt ,Flinders, Cook, Macquarie share names with electorates as well. Western Sydney University was originally meant to be called Chifley.
Don’t forget Sydney, Melbourne, Adelaide, Canberra, and New England!
@Nicholas
And Newcastle. But back on topic, I guess this is possibly competitive, though the Liberals will be favoured to hold/gain (depending how Broadbent’s move to the cross bench is counted).
Broadbent won by about 3% as the endorsed liberal candidate. He is now an Independent as he was rolled in liberal party pre-election. If he stands in 2025 it is anyone ‘s guess. Otherwise suspect liberal hold
Map of electorates that share a name with an electorate: https://jmp.sh/xv3ko3vS
I’ve included ones that are named after the same person as the uni as well as ones that share the exact name (e.g Charles Sturt, James Cook, Edith Cowan).
*that share a name with a university
Some unis aren’t even in the same state as the electorate with the same namesake. Charles Sturt Uni (in NSW), James Cook Uni (in QLD) and Flinders Uni (in SA) come to mind.
As for Broadbent, like others above alluded to, we can write him off. If he runs (as an independent or a minor party candidate), he won’t get past 10% on primaries.