Melbourne – Australia 2022

What swing would be required to flip this from Greens to ALP? I find the 2PP with liberal party confusing to understand the actual margin in this seat.

2013 was the last time that the preference count was Green vs ALP. In that election it was 55.27% to the Greens on a primary vote of 42.6%. Taking into account that at the last election, the Greens won 49.3% of the PV, the margin is probably upwards of 12% – if not higher. For the ALP to be in with a show, it would seem that the Greens would need a primary vote starting with a 3 and a strong flow of Lib preferences to the ALP. I don’t think that Adam Bandt has much to worry about.

Thanks redistributed.

However, I do think it is relevant that Labor disendorsed their candidate in 2019, which would have inflated the greens vote. When you compare the result to Cooper, which saw a 15.5% swing against the Greens, Wills with a 4.3% swing against the Greens, and Macnamara with a stagnant Greens vote, it may be the case that the Greens would have suffered a swing against them in Melbourne with an endorsed Labor candidate.

Obviously Bandt has a strong personal vote, and being leader of the party will add to that, but it is worth considering the loss of Greens primary votes in surrounding seats.

Choice of candidate probably has an impact, with the Greens nominating a lower profile candidate for Cooper that caused some of the swing against them.

Greens basically pulled out of Cooper to lick their wounds in 2019, after 2 major losses in 2018. Celeste Liddle is a star candidate and Greens seem to be putting resources into Darebin again, especially after they survived the 2020 council gerrymander.

Melbourne isn’t a safe Green seat but Bandt seems to have a very strong local MP effect. The Greens vote collapsed in Ascot Vale as soon as it was moved to Maribyrnong. I think the seat is his for as long as he wants it, but if he retires Labor could win the election after.

I don’t understand why Labor throw resources here, Tanya has visited this seat with Labor candidate. If Labor want to get into office they need to win seats from the LNP not here.

Would be better if labor threw resources at La Trobe or Casey instead of here.

This seat is guaranteed to be a OneNation Pick up!

Firstly Adam Bandt and the Greens are extremely out of touch with the conservative electorates of Collingwood and Fitzroy, I’ve met neighbours that believe Adam is wasting tax payer dollars for fighting for funding to increase and improve the Kensington station, a lot of voters in this electorate are also against taking strong climate action, it’s home to around 85% coal miners and a Green’s MP just doesn’t make sense here

Pauline Hanson made the right choice nominating someone for this seat

Mark, how can Melbourne be home to coal miners when its right in the heart of the city centre? The seat might have small pockets of conservative voting suburbs like you indicated but I don’t see any way for one nation or the Liberals to flip this seat any time soon.

Yoh An

methinks it’s a pisstake

Yeah could be, I recall there was a Queensland state district called Fitzroy based in the Capricornia area so maybe Mark is confusing Melbourne with central Queensland.

Still, a quick check of the electorate name would be enough to confirm the general location.

It was definitely sarcasm, a witty way of saying it makes no sense for One Nation to waste resources running a candidate here.

Collingwood and Fitzroy are arguably the two most progressive suburbs in all of Australia.

You’re probably right Trent, I did re-read Mark’s comment and it did sound more like sarcasm, poking fun at why One Nation would be running here. Although I would also add that the Greens also run in many rural seats where there vote barely reaches 4-5%, which wouldn’t be that different from One nation running in inner city seats like Melbourne.

You’re probably right Trent, I did re-read Mark’s comment and it did sound more like sarcasm, poking fun at why One Nation would be running here. Although I would also add that the Greens also run in many rural seats where there vote barely reaches 4-5%, which wouldn’t be that different from One nation running in inner city seats like Melbourne.

Hey Guys, Mark here, it wasn’t sarcasm, firstly I respect all parties running in safe seats and same goes for One Nation in Melbourne, every vote is worth $2.97 ish according to the AEC so every vote literally funds the parties.

I exaggerated a little bit but still believe Melbourne is OneNation’s for the taking, I currently live in Mildura but was told that it’s coal central over there and a extremely anti greens climate, assuming Melbourne is coal central, OneNation plays perfectly into the electorate

Labor’s campaign in Melbourne is the best run since Bandt took the seat. I am confident that the seat will be marginal ALP-GRN after the election. My guess is ~54-46 to the Greens. Greens voters are starting to feel like voting green does not achieve a huge amount, after 12 years of Bandt and very little change in Aus climate policy, there is definitely an atmosphere that Labor is a more pragmatic alternative.

Sprout

There is zero chance this seat will be even remotely marginal, and the concept that Labor are strong on climate change is also laughable, you ALP hack.

I agree more with Ryan, the Labor Party will struggle to defeat Bandt because he is a popular local member and his legal background is well suited for actively targeting issues like climate change and social justice.

Also the reason why climate policy has struggled to gain traction whilst Bandt is the MP is because most of that time was during the Coalition government since 2013 who have pretty much stonewalled any meaningful action on climate change. The biggest changes started with Rudd post 2007 and were strengthened during the minority Gillard government.

I expect Labor to come second on primaries, but still be significantly (around 25%) behind Bandt. The Green vote in Melbourne is solid. If most Liberal voters preference Labor it will close the 2PP gap, but I can’t see it getting anywhere near marginal this election.

I agree with Mark. One Nation gain, possible Azov Battalion conquest

There is a significant chance that Bandt`s 2CP margin will significantly decline, however, this has very little to do with Bandt because it would be mainly due to Bandt`s 2CP opponent changing due to shifts in the 3CP. Bandt has a large margin against the Liberals, because he gets ALP preferences, which is what came through on the 2CP in the last 2 elections because the ALP came 3rd. Bandt usually has a significantly tighter margin against the ALP because the Liberals direct advise their voters to preference the ALP, however, this has been hidden by the ALP relatively narrowly coming 3rd in the 3CP (0.3% in 2016 and with a disendorsed candidate in 2019 it was 2.3%). The current election is looking like a very bad election for the Liberals and a better election for the ALP (particularly in the demographics of inner city Liberals who vote in Melbourne) and therefore there is a significant likelihood that Bandt will be facing an ALP candidate who gets the Liberals advising their voters to preference the ALP.

There has been quite a lot of One Nation advertising material throughout the electorate, I noticed that most phone booths in Fitzroy and Collingwood are advertising the candidate.

Unsure exactly what the intention is from One Nation here, considering the demographics of the area. This was pointed out a few weeks ago in these comments, but in the meantime they seem to have proliferated. Whether this is just a way of advertising the One Nation brand to the large number of out of division visitors, I am unsure.

I find that so bizarre Connor, what a waste of money. I remember seeing movies in Carlton recently which had 2 minute UAP ads and trying to think of a worse seat for far right parties to advertise in.

^^Probably just about any seat in WA is worse for the UAP at the moment. Palmer is truly despised here after attempting to sue the state for $30 billion and then McGowan for defamation. I was shocked at the number of UAP billboards when I was in Sydney a few weeks ago – there are some billboards and ads in Perth but in Sydney it looked as if he’d bought out every second one!

Ryan

I am not saying ALP is strong enough on climate, I am just reporting what I have felt in the seat. I’ve lived in Melbourne my whole life, and this is the first election since Bandt won that people I know who previously voted Greens have decided to vote for Labor again. Obviously this is anecdotal, but I do not think it is unreasonable to predict that the final margin will be around 55-45 to the Greens.

The ONP candidate’s online behaviour is fairly interesting. I think the amount of advertising here is due to the ONP candidate’s personal wealth and his bizarre notion that he is a genuine chance in one of the most left-leaning seats in the country. Something tells me he hasn’t been doing any door knocking in Fitzroy and Collingwood.

Labor did indeed improve here and will finish second, but Bandt has also improved to win the seat on primaries.

Labor might be best off to acknowledge they’re not winning here any time soon, and focus their efforts on battling the Greens elsewhere.

Labor returned to second with the Greens improving their primary vote her

It’s nice to see what the Green/Labor margin is this time, since Labor is always going to be a better challenger to the Greens here than the Liberals. Even when the Liberals come second.

I live here now, so how do I register to vote here in Victoria and de-register myself from Queensland? I don’t want to be fined for not voting in Queensland despite no longer living there and living here.

@DanielT

https://www.aec.gov.au/enrol/update-my-details.htm

“While the AEC only runs federal elections, the action taken by completing an AEC enrolment form is applied for federal and any relevant state, territory or local government elections.”

Easy to do online.

Daniel, I believe you go to the aec website and find a link that says change/update enrolment details. I did that after moving from my family home in Sydney to Brisbane.

you ust change your enrollment with the aec. you wouldnt be fined because youdhave a reasonable excuse for not votng

Questions for commenters about Melbourne:

1. Do you think the Liberals will ever finish second here like they did in 2016 and 2019?
2. Will the Liberals ever finish first in Docklands and East Melbourne again?
3. Will the redistribution effect this seat? I think it will because some Greens parts of Macnamara might be added to Melbourne.

Note that while my redistribution proposals aren’t intentionally biased, as a Liberal I would hope Macnamara doesn’t go to the Greens.

Interestingly if Labor preferences in Docklands at the 2016 federal election went 20% to the Liberals and 80% to the Greens then the Liberals would’ve won that booth.

@ Nether Portal my two cents
1. Yes i would say yes but they would need to win the Small L liberal vote back in the Teal seats first thee Liberal friendly areas you mentioned below are more Progressive than the Teal seats. This is more likely beyond 2028 and not in 2025.
2. More likely in East Melbourne than Docklands but once conditional on the above. East Melbourne is lower density has terraced homes while Docklands is high rise apartments and mass produced so the over supply can attract lower income tenants.
3. Maybe wait till Redistribution is finalized. The Liberals in their comments on Objections actually cited me in their objections to support their case.
4. In terms of Macnamara going to the Greens the best way to ensure a Pro-Israel MP remains is to vote 1. ALP 2. LIB. Please Read this article from the AJN to explain why
https://www.australianjewishnews.com/keeping-macnamara-in-safe-hands/

For East Melbourne, they had gotten more low to mid rise apartments nearby more recently so they diluted the Libs votes plus you have to take into account wealthy residents have trended vote early in recent elections which does which reduces the Liberal vote in polling booths thus inflate the swings against the Libs

Thanks for the comments @Nimalan and @Marh.

I think if the Greens don’t win Macnamara this time they may not ever get it. I personally think Wills is more likely to go to the Greens than Macnamara.

@np macnamara might be saved because of the redistribution pushing melbourne across the Yarra. If the tribunal had of done the swap it would be lost. I’m planning on appearing at the inquiry in Vic to advocate for it to happen

@ Marh
I would still expect the low to mid rise apartments in East Melbourne would still be higher priced so will be different from those in the CBD which attract mainly international students. Could they be like Pyrmont in Sydney going forward?

@NP
As a Greens supporter seriously doubt that they will win McNamara. The Greens position on Gaza is considered toxic by much of that community, and may just be enough to tip Labor back over the line. However, the same issue that will cost the Greens McNamara will hand them Wills on a silver platter.

I predict that at the next election the Greens will get no more than 6 seats, ie retaining their current seats and then gaining Wills and Richmond.

@ Darcy
See the Macnamara and Higgins threads there is little if any support among Pro-Israel Jews for the Greens even before October 7 so this is not the issue. The problem for the Greens if Jewish Liberals tactically vote for Labor so it becomes an ALP V GRN contest which the GRN cannot win.

Not sure where I read this but in the UK the Jewish Labour vote under Jeremy Corbyn in 2019 was 7% – it was previously 50%. The Jewish vote has gone screaming back to Labour under Keir Starmer. Not sure what the Jewish Greens vote was in Macnamara but it may plumb to similar levels if not lower. The Greens vote last time in Caulfield was 25% – 30% – a goodly proportion will be lost assuming some were secular Jews.

@ Redistributed
As Trent who lives in Macnamara mentioned we cannot use booth figures to estimate Jewish support for the Greens or any party as most Jewish dont vote on polling day due to Sabbath so the booth results over estimate the Jewish vote in Caulfield and surrounds. The Greens position on Israel is well known to Jews especially in Macnamara more than anywhere else many Anglos may have only realised this after October 7 but if anyone has been following Danby or looked at every single Tallyroom thread on Macnamara since Tallyroom started in 2010, Israel has been an issue at every election in Macnamara/Melbourne Ports. For Anti-Zionist Jews many of them will agree with the Greens. There was also a lot on Israel discussed at the Caulfield state election thread so it is not new issue.

Nimalan, I am not assuming that orthodox and definitely not ultra orthodox Jews would:
1. Vote on a Saturday
2. Vote for the Greens
But there are a goodly number of secular Jews who would still vote on a Saturday – some of whom presumably would have vote for the Greens. It is hard to see the Greens vote holding up when the issue of real or perceived anti-semitism has come to a head.

@ Redistributed. you and i agree on Orthodox Jews.

Regarding Secular Jews, i agree that many would still vote on Saturdays. I am not secure what the breakdown of Jews in Macnamara would be Haredi, Orthodox, Reformed or Secular as the census does not give that detail. However, even Caulfield North which is the most Jewish suburb in Victoria- 40.8% are Jewish meaning almost 60% are not Jewish. For non Jewish voters in Caulfield the Israel issue is probably not an issue and being a high SES area i would expect the Greens to do well there.
I am not saying whether the Greens stance on Israel is morally right or wrong as i have friends in both communities so i want to stick to demographic analysis on this controversial matter. However, methinks many Secular Jews would have already been aware of the Greens stance on Israel prior to October 7 especially because Labor always attacks the Greens in Macnamara for being Anti-Israel every election.