LNP 12.2%
Incumbent MP
Karen Andrews, since 2010.
Geography
Southern end of the Gold Coast. McPherson covers the Gold Coast’s border with New South Wales and stretches up the coast to Burleigh Heads and covers inland Gold Coast as far north as Clear Island Waters and Merrimac.
McPherson was created as part of the expansion of the House of Representatives in 1949, and it has always been held by Coalition parties: by the Country Party until 1972 and by the Liberal Party from 1972 until the Liberal National Party merger in recent years.
The seat was first won in 1949 by Country Party leader Arthur Fadden, who became Treasurer in the post-war Menzies government. Fadden had briefly served as Prime Minister during the Second World War and had previously held Darling Downs since 1936.
Fadden held the seat until his retirement in 1958, when he was replaced by the Country Party’s Charles Barnes. Barnes served as a minister from 1963 until just before the 1972 election, and retired at that election.
At the 1972 election the seat of McPherson was lost by the Country Party to Liberal candidate Eric Robinson. Robinson served as a junior minister in the first term of the Fraser government and was appointed Finance Minister in 1977. He briefly stood down in 1979 due to a dispute with Malcolm Fraser, and was dropped from the ministry after the 1980 election. He died suddenly in January 1981.
The 1981 by-election was won by state Liberal MP Peter White, who defeated National Country Party senator Glen Sheil. White held McPherson at the 1983, 1984 and 1987 elections, and retired in 1990.
McPherson was won in 1990 by the Liberal Party’s John Bradford. Bradford held the seat until 1998. In April 1998 he resigned from the Liberal Party and joined the Christian Democratic Party. He contested the Senate in Queensland in 1998 for the CDP but was not elected.
McPherson was won in 1998 by Margaret May, who held the seat for the next four terms. May briefly served as a shadow minister under Brendan Nelson and Malcolm Turnbull but then returned to the backbench and retired in 2010.
At the 2010 election, the LNP’s Karen Andrews won the seat, and she has held the seat ever since. Andrews joined the cabinet in 2018 and now serves as Minister for Home Affairs.
Assessment
McPherson has been a remarkably stable seat for the LNP, without much in the way of swings. It should stay solidly in LNP hands at the next election.
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
| Karen Andrews | Liberal National | 44,634 | 48.2 | -5.1 |
| Aaron Santelises | Labor | 21,138 | 22.8 | -3.2 |
| Alan Quinn | Greens | 10,167 | 11.0 | +0.7 |
| John Spellman | One Nation | 5,421 | 5.9 | +5.9 |
| Scott Crowe | Liberal Democrats | 3,222 | 3.5 | +3.5 |
| Fiona Mackenzie | United Australia Party | 3,078 | 3.3 | +3.3 |
| Renee Stewart | Animal Justice | 2,367 | 2.6 | +2.6 |
| Michael Kaff | Independent | 1,648 | 1.8 | +1.8 |
| Sean Gaffy | Conservative National Party | 846 | 0.9 | +0.9 |
| Informal | 6,250 | 6.3 | +1.9 |
2019 two-party-preferred result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
| Karen Andrews | Liberal National | 57,545 | 62.2 | +0.6 |
| Aaron Santelises | Labor | 34,976 | 37.8 | -0.6 |
Booths have been divided into three areas:
- North-East – Burleigh, Varsity Lakes.
- North-West – Mudgeeraba, Reedy Creek, Robina.
- South – Coolangatta, Currumbin, Elanora, Palm Beach, Tallebudgera.
The LNP won a majority of the two-party-preferred vote in all three areas, ranging from 56.4% in the south to 64.9% in the north-west.
The Greens primary vote ranged from 9.7% in the north-west to 15% in the south.
| Voter group | GRN prim % | LNP 2PP % | Total votes | % of votes |
| South | 15.0 | 56.4 | 18,215 | 19.7 |
| North-West | 9.7 | 64.9 | 11,362 | 12.3 |
| North-East | 12.9 | 57.4 | 10,471 | 11.3 |
| Pre-poll | 9.5 | 64.3 | 39,776 | 43.0 |
| Other votes | 9.4 | 65.4 | 12,697 | 13.7 |
Election results in McPherson at the 2019 federal election
Toggle between two-party-preferred votes and primary votes for the Liberal National Party, Labor and the Greens.
I don’t think the Greens will be able to leap frog Labor anywhere next election. The Labor vote will be much higher, as they won off a low primary in 2022 and are consistently polling much higher. This will mostly be at the expense of the Liberals so even if Labor does lose some vote to the Greens they should be fine.
Gold Coast Bulletin apparently has an interesting article aboit LNP preselection contenders.
LNP insider, who are the contenders? Is Gerber considered? I’m not paying just to read 1 article so if you could provide who the contenders are it would be great.
It’s a bit unusual for an MP to announce their retirement two years before the next election.
The LNP will lead on first preferences in 2025. This is quite classical Liberal heartland.
A teal-like, local independent who runs on local issues and corruption/integrity could scoop up the anti-Dutton vote. A teal cut from the same cloth as the teals from inner Melbourne or Sydney’s northern beaches may not win. McPherson is demographically and economically different. McPherson is more middle-class and quite ‘suburban’, whilst rural in Currumbin Valley with a big LNP vote and a bigger-than-average Greens vote.
I doubt the prospect of Greens coming second, let alone winning the seat in 2025. There’s a huge voter base who vote for PHON, UAP and other right-wing, populist parties. This makes it super tricky for the Greens, and to some extent, Labor.
Could Karen call it the quits now that the LNP got what looks likely to be a 3% swing on the TPP when all votes are counted (late votes will get them around 64 TPP in Fadden)
If she quits early this is a safe LNP retain with a swing to them. Labor should give up on the Gold Coast in next year’s state election, they can’t win under current circumstances with policy failures, the Labor MP in Gaven should start packing her bags if I were her if the result in overlapping Fadden is anything to go by.
I don’t agree that 21 is high watermark for LNP in Queensland, they can gain Ryan, Blair and Lilley and possibly Brisbane when the circumstances are right for them but probably won’t ever win Moreton and Griffith and especially not Rankin and Oxley.
Labor should have got a swing to them in Fadden based on federal polls and the fact that Caldwell wasn’t without controversy himself. it’s proof the voice and the cost of living crisis as well as youth crime is hurting Labor dearly in Queensland, it will probably take a real time in opposition (not with 7 seats as that wasn’t official party status) and they need more than 1 term in opposition to learn from the mistakes of the current tenure.
Above all, Karen can call it quits now without having to worry, and it will be just another night the LNP will be popping the champagne.
Daniel T, I am once again struggling to believe you lived in Queensland and still didn’t recognise that parts of the state routinely vote differently between state and federal elections. And a poll does not mean identical shifts in every area either. Yet you seem to believe you know exactly what the results are going to be, more than a year out, despite polls not showing an overwhelming majority for one party.
Agree Wilson, I would say Queensland and WA voters have the greatest ability to ‘distinguish’ between levels of government and are happy to split their vote, often voting for the Coalition federally but then backing Labor for state elections.
Actually I am basing my assessment on bookies odds and the media, including other people on this site who are predicting an LNP victory at next year’s elections, they have many valid points that this government is growing tired and running out of ideas and the issues such as youth crime and cost of living have gotten even worse since the last state election.
I am fully aware that state and federal vote different, but you cannot ignore a 3% swing in Fadden because while Labor will do better at the state level, a 3% swing would still be bad for Labor but not enough to lose Gaven.
I’m just not sure how Labor pull off a 4th term without the opposition imploding, It won’t be a landslide either way, I expect the LNP to be 1 or 2 seats short like Minns, but possibly getting a majority.
The reason the LNP isn’t “clearly ahead” as in 53% or 54% of the TPP is because the campaign hasn’t started and allot of voters don’t realize the governments track record on youth crime, but also because allot of people still associate the LNP with Newman despite the latter no longer being a member of the party, and the LNP leadership distancing themselves from him.
Once the campaign kicks off into full swing I expect the LNP will have a more clear lead, Crisafulli seems to be a better debater and public speaker than his LNP leader predecessors and will be much harder to beat than the other leaders.
I also noticed my point about this seat was ignored about the LNP getting a swing to them at a by-election here if Karen Andrews was to quit early and after the Fadden result wouldn’t be outside the realms of possibility, Labor will be scared to run here and the LNP would safely hold this I’m a by-election with a primary vote swing, Palmer won’t run here like they didn’t in Fadden so it’s pretty obvious how a by-election here would turn out.
Laura Gerber could safely jump ship here if she wanted to without worrying about Currumbin going Labor under current circumstances.