ALP 9.7%
Incumbent MP
Tony Zappia, since 2007.
Geography
Northeastern suburbs of Adelaide. Makin covers most of Tea Tree Gully council area as well as parts of Salisbury council area east of Main North Road and a small part of Port Adelaide Enfield council area. Major suburbs include Para Hills, Walkley Heights, Modbury, Redwood Park, Tea Tree Gully, Golden Grove, Greenwith, Salisbury East and Salisbury Heights.
History
Makin was created at the 1984 election as part of the expansion of the House of Representatives. The seat was won by the party of government at every election until 2013, when Labor held on against the national trend.
The seat was first won by ALP candidate Peter Duncan, a state MP who had served as a state minister from 1975 until the defeat of the Corcoran government in 1979. Duncan served as a federal minister from the 1987 election until the 1990 election, when he was demoted to a Parliamentary Secretary position which he held until the defeat of the Keating government in 1996.
Duncan lost Makin to Liberal candidate Trish Draper at the 1996 election. Draper held Makin for the entirety of the Howard government, although she never moved off the backbench. Her margin was cut to less than 1% at the 2004 election, and she retired before the 2007 election.
At the 2007 election the ALP’s Tony Zappia won Makin with a swing of over 8%. He has been re-elected four times.
Assessment
Makin is a safe Labor seat.
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
| Tony Zappia | Labor | 51,666 | 48.4 | +5.7 |
| Hemant Dave | Liberal | 35,087 | 32.9 | +5.4 |
| Stephanie Stewart | Greens | 9,211 | 8.6 | +3.9 |
| Rachel Collis | United Australia Party | 6,874 | 6.4 | +6.4 |
| Lyn Gaston | Animal Justice | 3,866 | 3.6 | +2.0 |
| Informal | 5,021 | 4.5 | -0.1 |
2019 two-party-preferred result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
| Tony Zappia | Labor | 63,726 | 59.7 | -1.1 |
| Hemant Dave | Liberal | 42,978 | 40.3 | +1.1 |
Booths have been divided into three parts: north-east, south-east and west.
The ALP won a majority of the two-party-preferred vote in all three areas, ranging from 55.7% in the north-east to 65.2% in the west.
| Voter group | GRN prim % | ALP 2PP % | Total votes | % of votes |
| West | 8.4 | 65.2 | 33,454 | 31.4 |
| South-East | 10.6 | 59.0 | 18,378 | 17.2 |
| North-East | 8.6 | 55.7 | 15,523 | 14.5 |
| Pre-poll | 7.2 | 56.4 | 23,322 | 21.9 |
| Other votes | 9.0 | 57.8 | 16,027 | 15.0 |
Election results in Makin at the 2019 federal election
Toggle between two-party-preferred votes and primary votes for Labor and the Liberal Party.
If Labor lost the election would they ever parachute Wong into here (I have them favoured to win so this is hypothetical)?
Insider, but why this seat? And why now? She could have ran in Spence where Nick Campion moved to state politics and became a minister in the new government.
Circumstances would be different if they lose again and theh might be desperate enough to talk into a lower house seat.
I assume Rishworth is not swapping, so Makin is the next safest seat I believe.
@LNP Insider, in such as a case it will be likely this seat as Tony Zappia is approaching 70 and this maybe his last term. The next possible seat is Adelaide which is now a more safer seat after Port Adelaide was abolished. I doubt Kingston as Rishworth is quite young and may want to stay in politics for some time. I say Rishworth as possibly one of the best perfoming MPs considering it was not that long ago it was a marginal seat and it is now super safe.
Nimalan, part of the reason why Kingston has become safer for Labor is that successive redistributions have shed some of its more rural areas around Wilunga to Mayo. However, Rishworth is a strong performer as she achieved a 5%+ swing at the 2010 election when Kingston still included Wilunga and surrounding rural areas.
@ Yoh An, Agreed in the past it included more rural areas including MacLeran Vale. Also agree the Far South of Adelaide is the second strongest area for SA Labor after the area north of Grand Junction Road (Port Adelaide and Surrounds and Northern suburbs). However, parts of this seat such as Hallet Cove, Sheidlow Park and Flagstaff Hill are quite and affluent. For example at a state level Davenport and Black are usually Liberal leaning.
Btw swing at 2010 election was close to 10% biggest swing to Labor in the country even greater than JG seat of Lalor. https://www.abc.net.au/elections/federal/2010/guide/king.htm