Indi – Australia 2022

Okay I have just deleted about 45 comments. This is massively off topic.

Ben is incredibly wrong and has had that patiently explained to him by numerous people. It’s pointless. I’ve blocked him. I could do a blog post explaining the mechanics of population growth interacting with the seat count, but there’s better stuff to do now. I look forward to discussing this after the election. Please get back to discussing the seat.

Thanks Ben!

Im on the ground in indi strong Lib showing at pre poll. As well as high spirits at the Lib camp buoyed by the voters. Don’t be su

Wanted to point out something that might’ve slipped under the radar here, which was that the notional 2PP margin here between Liberal and Labor was only 5.3% to Liberal. This is only the second time in recent decades that the (notional) LIB vs ALP 2PP was “marginal” – in 2016 it was only 4.4% to Liberal.

Perhaps you could’ve described Labor’s good 2016 2PP as an outlier, but the fact the notional margin is “marginal” again indicates to me that this seat has potential for Labor. The seat has generally been recording a Liberal 2PP 15 points ahead of the Victorian federal Liberal 2PP, but in 2016 was only 6 points better, and in 2022 10 points better. The shows a slow drift towards Labor (or the “left”). I think this area is a potential long-term opportunity for Labor, though this might all be theoretical if the Independents movement remains strong here.

@ GPPS
Disagree there, funny things may happen with a theoretical notional TPP and often it is due to local factors. The size of the primary vote for the major party in the actual 2CP impacts the notional major party TPP. For example Warringah is now marginal seat versus Labor and it recorded the biggest TPP swing to Labor in 2019, Mayo is now a notional Labor seat and Fowler had the biggest TPP swing to Libs in 2022. However, i dont see Labor even winning Warringah or Mayo or the Libs winning Fowler. If there was an electorate that consisted only of Alpine Shire and Indigo Shire (such a seat maybe like the state electorate of Ripon), Labor maybe able to win it with a strong campaign as there are pockets of Labor strength in places like Beechworth, Mount Beauty, Bright etc but the rest of the seat is is traditional rural territory.

Nimalan, Unless Leon Bignell runs in Mayo, they would have a shot with him. This seat although it contains Kangaroo Island, Under the 2022 State election result, Labor would have won Mayo. So while the seat still ”Leans” to the Liberals demographically. Labor can win it in good years in South Australia.

Indi on the other hand is completely different. There isn’t really any Labor representation at all at the state level here. This area almost has no history of Labor representation or potential. I’ll remind you that the state seat of Barwon was marginal in NSW in 2019 due to SFF preferencing Labor more than the Nats. (Even though these voters would never put Labor first and would rather vote Nat), They were Nat voters voting for the SFF and they also wanted to send a message to the Nats that they aren’t doing good enough and they don’t expect Labor to win. so they fear nothing putting Labor above the Nats.

Same story could be said here. Independent voters who would never vote Labor put them above the Libs because they wanted to send a message to the Libs and didn’t have to stress at the possibility of a Labor win so it was a no-risk.

Mayowould be Labor if sharkie didn’t run. However this can be attributed toa popular state laborgovt and will shift back once they run. Their ourse

Nimalan, the reason why Fowler had the biggest TPP swing to the Libs in 2022 in the nation was because Dai Le’s HTV card put Labor last, which inflated the notional TPP swing against Labor. Many 2019 Labor voters who would never vote Liberal but followed Dai Le’s HTV card in 2022 would still have voted Labor had Le didn’t run. Fowler is a culturally diverse electorate with low levels of educational attainment, therefore Le’s HTV card included preference recommendations to assist voters casting a formal vote, unlike other successful independents (including teals, Helen Haines and Andrew Wilkie) who didn’t include preference recommendations on their HTV cards. In Fowler, a significant proportion of voters aren’t capable of casting a formal vote without the assistance of HTV cards with all boxes marked. For this reason, the percentage of Dai Le voters following her HTV card and preferencing the Liberals over Labor must be quite high, even though many of them didn’t actually prefer the Liberal Party over Labor. Therefore the Liberals will never be competitive in Fowler. Had Dai Le preferenced Labor in her HTV card, the 2PP swing against Labor would be very small and there could even be a TPP swing towards Labor if a sufficient percentage of 2019 Liberal voters followed Dai Le’s HTV card and preferenced Labor, even though they didn’t actually prefer Labor over the Liberal Party.

@ Joseph good point i did not factor that into account makes sense as Fowler has the highest % of people speaking a language other than English. The opposite of a seat like Mackellar which is educated and almost exclusively English speaking.

@ Daniel T
Good point about Leon Bignell. Mawson includes Aldinga which is a mortgage belt suburb and gives Leon Bignell a good springboard. It only makes a small part of Mayo though.
While Labor may theoretically win Mayo in a good year i still feel its resources a best spent elsewhere. Greater Adelaide is a very class divided city and i think many voters in the Adelaide Hills may actually have a class-based aversion to Labor and associate them with the industrial northern suburbs of Adelaide. Interestingly, this used to the best chance for the Democrats to win a seat in 1998 they came close so i think it retains a centrist small l liberal tradition. If there is no Teal or other independent i actually think the Greens may actually win the seat instead of Labor.

Fowler is likel6 to be massively redistributed due to being located I. That sweet spot right been the massive surplus in western Sydney and the deficient of central sydney

The area around Fairfield and Liverpool (in 2022 federally and 2023 on the state level) seems to have become like the northern and western suburbs of Melbourne (in 2022 federally and on the state level). In 2022, Fowler had a notional TPP of 55.7% after a swing of 8.3% to the Liberals.

But to say it was all because of Dai Le just simply isn’t true. She didn’t endorse any candidates at the 2023 state election, yet Labor won Liverpool with their lowest ever TPP vote since 1965. Labor’s TPP in Liverpool in 2023 was 58.3%, after a TPP swing of 9.0% to the Liberals, downgrading it from a very safe seat to a fairly safe seat. Similar things happened in Cabramatta, where Labor won with 61.8% of the TPP vote (a 7.5% swing to the Liberals). However this doesn’t mean they’re competitive there yet, as the Liberal primary vote is too low to win.

This reminds me of the big swing to the Liberals in northern and western Melbourne at the 2022 federal election but also at the 2022 Victorian state election, though a lot of the swing was anti-lockdown and came from the rise in right-wing “freedom-friendly” minor parties like the UAP, One Nation, the Liberal Democrats, the DLP and the Freedom Party plus all the right-wing independents.

One thing the Liberals did do that Labor didn’t in 2022 was cast a local candidate in Fowler (Courtney Nguyen, who was also the Liberal candidate for Cabramatta in 2023), while Labor parachuted in Kristina Keneally for some reason (this was a very dumb thing to do even without Dai Le being a popular local candidate because Kristina Keneally is still remembered in NSW for the corruption of her government that cost her a landslide defeat to Barry O’Farrell’s Coalition, which was the worst defeat of a sitting government in NSW history and at the time it was also the worst defeat of any incumbent government in Australia since World War II).

KK is a powerbbroker of one of Labor factions that’s why

@ Nether Portal,
We actually had a discussion in the thread below after the NSW election. With respect to Cabramatta i feel it is partly because of Kate Hoang who ran as an independent (her preferences either going to Libs or exhausting) and partly due to the brand damage in the in the area caused by the KK debacle.
I think the situation around Liverpool is a slightly different and i feel it is due to a perception of neglect and low quality MPs. Ned Mannoun may have also improved the perception of the Libs in an otherwise demographically unfavourable area. I mentioned my view that i think Labor could be concerned about Werriwa and i feel Anne Staley is an underperfoming MP that should face a pre-selection challenge.

https://www.tallyroom.com.au/51379-Discussion in the aftermath of the NSW election.

@Nimalan, thanks for the reply, but I feel you are underestimating the value of the notional 2PP here.

One reason why I think the notional 2PP is fairly accurate for Indi is its results for Wodonga correspond closely to Albury in Farrer (which was a straight Labor/Liberal contest). If Indi’s results for Wodonga were markedly different from Farrer’s Albury portion, then it would be easier to disregard Indi’s notional 2PP, but this is not the case – the results are very similar across the border, showing a border town that narrowly leans Liberal.

Here are the Liberal 2PPs (vs Labor) for the booths in Wodonga (Indi) and Albury (Farrer).

Indi:
Wodonga 465: 51.8%
Wodonga central: 45.6%
Wodonga central PPVC: 56.5%
Wodonga south: 46.8%

Farrer:
Albury: 48.0%
Albury central: 50.5%
Albury east: 55.2%
Albury Farrer PPVC: 60.8%
Albury north: 55.2%
Albury west: 52.2%.

Might be an interesting prediction but I think Helen Haines could be in trouble next election. I’m going to use the examples of the state seats of Mildura and Shepparton, which independent MPs had held until 2022 when the Nationals won them back after previous defeats.

That state election was remarkable as the independents were wiped out of the Legislative Assembly. There was a 12% swing to the Nationals in Shepparton, which turned the seat from safe independent to safe National in one stroke, and rolled a relatively popular Suzanna Sheed. Mildura was technically notionally National after a redistribution, and they had a small swing in their favour to officially defeat Independent Ali Cupper.

I will point out much of that swing was because of how Suzanna Sheed and Ali Cupper were seen as too close to Labor during their tenure. Mind you, these electorates when they were independent held were still pretty safe for the Nationals, so the swing was part voter revolt, and part anger that they were seen as too close to a government which could legitimately never win either of those seats whatsoever.

Same goes for Helen. She and the whole ‘Indi way’ movement are popular but all the state electorates overlapping Indi are Coalition-held. She also seems to be very progressive, which could potentially hurt a lot of rural, more conservative voters who voted for her because the Liberals had a terrible record in Indi in the past few years, which is what got the independent vote ahead of them. Mind you, her margin against the Liberals is fairly safe, much safer than Suzanna Sheed and Ali Cupper had ever achieved.

What the Liberals will need is a good, high-profile, well-connected candidate, and they could return Indi back to safe or at least a gain. However, Helen Haines is still popular, so they could use the whole ‘close to Labor’ rhetoric and it could be interesting how the results pan out.

I think Indi will be Helen Haines’ seat until she retires or resigns. She’s by no means a Labor-lite independent as she’s been very clear in voting for both sides according to conscience, which was what Cathy McGowan did. Given that the surrounding seats went to Liberal/Nationals in the 2022 state election if they were dissatisfied with Haines they would’ve voted her out in droves, but instead she increased her margin and is now almost on a 10% margin which demonstrates that she’s definitely got some degree of popularity in the electorate now, and usually when independents get in, they’re quite difficult to dislodge unless if something bad bad BAD happens.

Based on that, I think it’s all very much likely that most of the crossbench independents will be returned next time round unless if Labor/Liberals come up with a candidate that no one resists.

This is one the Liberals will eventually win back. Mayo could be interesting in the future too; it seems that Kangaroo Island votes Liberal and everywhere else votes CA.

@ Nether Portal
I missed the response from @GPPS above but i am still skeptical that Labor can ever win this seat despite the change in the notional margin as @GPPS correctly points out. I agree there are pockets of strength for the Labor party such as Beechworth, Mount Beauty and some areas close to Melbourne such as Kinglake and Flowerdale. However, the bulk of the vote is in the Murray-Darling Basin which is Australia’s breadbasket and i dont see Labor winning that demographic. Last time, Labor won Indi when they won unopposed due to the Country party candidate failing to nominate. Keen to hear your views about long term prospects for Labor in Indi.

@Nimalan Labor won’t win it. But the Liberals or Nationals might. Labor won’t win any proper country seats again.

The regional seats Labor currently holds aren’t areas where agriculture is the predominant industry. Ballarat, Bendigo and Corangamite are mostly urban (Ballarat, Bendigo and Geelong, respectively), Eden-Monaro has agriculture but it’s also got a lot of tourism around Jindabyne and the Snowy Mountains since it includes all of the ski resorts in NSW (though Thredbo is a Liberal booth) and Queanbeyan is a satellite city of Canberra, Gilmore has a major tourism industry (Nowra, Batemans Bay and Kiama) plus a bit of agriculture, Lingiari is remote and very mixed (urban/rural/remote), Lyons is also very mixed (urban/rural) and Richmond is mostly urban (Tweed Heads, Ballina and Murwillumbah) with a lot of tourism (Ballina and Byron Bay).

Then Blair, Franklin, McEwen and Whitlam are urban-rural mixes where >70% live in the outer-suburbs of a city (>70% of Blair voters are in Ipswich, >80% of Franklin voters are in Hobart, >70% of McEwen voters are in Melbourne and >75% of Whitlam voters are in Wollongong). Hunter is working-class and partially an urban-rural mix (Cessnock being urban and Muswellbrook and Singleton being rural).

I’m not counting Corio (Geelong), Cunningham (Wollongong), Dobell (Central Coast), Newcastle (Newcastle), Paterson (Newcastle-Maitland), Shortland (Newcastle) or Robertson (Central Coast) as regional seats since they are entirely located within metropolitan areas.

Plus Macquarie is an urban-urban-rural mix (Sydney-Blue Mountains-parts of the Hawkesbury that aren’t in Sydney).

One may argue that every seat has at least one city or big town/suburb in it, which is true, but some are more centred on those cities/towns/suburbs than others.

So if you look at the seats that aren’t entirely in a city that Labor holds, most are heavily based on the outer-suburbs of a major city (Bean, Blair, Franklin, Hunter, Lyons, McEwen and Whitlam). The remaining ones are heavily based on one or two cities (Ballarat, Bendigo, Eden-Monaro, Gilmore, Lingiari and Richmond). None are actually rural.

@ Nether Portal
Agree with your analysis even a seat like Leichardt which Labor may win in 2025 while the size of Greece/England is not actually rural with 80% of the population in Cairns and the rest of the seat is pretty much indigenous communities and tourism resorts with little agriculture. Lingiari does not have that much agriculture a lot of it is desert.

Agree Nimalan and NP, Labor have not won any majority agricultural districts in decades which is similar to other places overseas (the rare exception might be Alaska where a Democrat, Mary Peltola does hold the state’s Federal house seat although Alaska is somewhat similar to Leichhardt or Lingiari having a large indigenous population that doesn’t tend to support conservative leaning views).

Former Indigo shire mayor James trenery is seeking Liberal preselection here

@ Yoh An
With respect to Alaska, i would argue that it has very little agriculture (maybe fishing though) due to its climate similar to Lingiari. The Oil industry has traditionally helped the GOP in Alaska. In the past Labor occasionally won seats like Hume and Riverina and former state seats like Burrunjack and Murrumidgee. However, i think those days are long gone with changes such as Mechanised agriculture replacing much of the rural working class and much of the remaining farm work being now done by non-citizens. For Labor this decline has not been really a hindrance to winning majority government as there suburbs that did not existing 30 years ago which are heavily ethnic and this has created new seats for Labor.

Frankly, the only thing that could politically derail Helen Haines would be if she supported a Labor government in a minority – and I think if she gave them confidence to form a government and left it at that she might be able to explain her way out. I think independents generally have learned form the 2010 experience is that you can’t be seen to be in lockstep with a government that you electorate generally doesn’t support – for Wilkie it was fine. If I recall, neither Windsor nor Oakeshott actually ever voted against the Labor government in the 2010 – 13 term.

Fair point Nimalan, although Labor is generally weak in all districts where the major employer is primary industries (agriculture/farming, mining, fisheries and forestry).

As you indicated, the growth of urban areas or even the conversion of regional centres from being focused on primary industries to white collar, service-based industries (as has occurred in places such as Blue Mountains, Newcastle, Wollongong, Geelong, Ballarat and Bendigo) means that Labor is still competitive overall.

@Redistributed that was what made Rob Oakeshott and Tony Windsor fall: supporting Labor for the simple reason that Turnbull wasn’t leader.

@tommo9 as someone who lives in indi i can assure you shes too cozy with labor hoever most voters cant see this. however if it comes down to minority govt she wil support labor and that will be her undoing.
the independents were elected on climate change issues and anti morrison vote. both those factors no longer exist. while the north shore and upper class seats like wentworth and warringah, probably mackeller may return the independents im guess curtin will fall due to correction of the wa vote and people like monique ryan will be defeated however i dont think tim wilson will get goldstein

@nimalan a notional tpp is exactly that its not a real margin just a guess. labor will never win here.

@ John
I dont think Labor will win Indi either which is my point. i agree there is small left-wing pockets but no where near enough to threaten the seat.

@nimalan thats why they had the whole voices campaign here and other places as a safe seat it was never gonna go to labor and if they force it to a minority govt HH will support labor whihc wil be her undoing which is why i reckon a minority labor win in 2025 is the best bet for the libs because it will expose the independents. thats what undid Suzanne Sheed in Shepparton and Ali Cupper(a failed labor cnadidate) in Mildura people saw them for what they really were and came back to the coalition

Nether, What would Abbott have done if the price of the cross-bench supporting the coalition was him resigning as leader? Would he have put the country first and allowed a coalition minority that wasn’t led by him?

Turnbull would have become PM in 2010 if so (Or Joe Hockey) either way. A much less unpopular coalition government however 2013 would’ve been competitive as no carbon tax or other things that caused Labor to fall on its sword.

Rudd probably would have won 2013 if the coalition had a minority in 2010. All you needed to do is flip Greenway and/or Lindsay and the numbers become really tough for Labor

@daniel t i doubt that because abboot managed to get 74 including crook and katter so i doubt he would be held hostage to windsor and oakshott. that govt would have been more stable then gillards because it was really the greens who drove the labor vote down in 2013 as they were the ones controlling the gillard govt behind the scenes. not only did she needs bandts vote but she needs the grreens in the senate to pass legislation

FORMER Indigo Shire mayor James Trenery will represent the Liberal Party at the 2025 election

@John – That’s definitely me 😀

Just kidding of course.