LIB 9.8%
Incumbent MP
Craig Kelly (IND), since 2010.
Geography
Hughes covers southern parts of Sydney. Most of the seat lies in the Sutherland Shire, including Menai, Bangor, Sutherland, Como, Jannali, Illawong, Barden Ridge, Engadine, Heathcote, Waterfall and Bundeena. The remainder of the seat lies at the southeastern end of the City of Liverpool, including Moorebank and Wattle Grove.
History
Hughes was first created in 1955 and has been held by the ALP for much of its history despite generally covering relatively affluent areas that would usually be thought of as more favourable to the Liberals. Its first MP was Les Johnson, who held the seat for Labor until he was defeated in the 1966 landslide by the Liberal Party’s Don Dobie. Dobie transferred to the newly created seat of Cook in 1969, and Johnson regained Hughes for the ALP, going on to serve as a minister in the Whitlam government.
Johnson resigned in December 1983, and was succeeded at a by-election by Robert Tickner, who went on to serve a high-profile tenure as Minister for Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander Affairs from 1990 until losing his seat when the Keating government lost office in 1996.
Danna Vale won the seat for the Liberals in 1996 and held the seat for the next five terms.
Vale retired in 2010 and Liberal candidate Craig Kelly won the seat, increasing the Liberal margin to 5.2%. Kelly has been re-elected three times.
Kelly resigned from the Liberal Party in February 2021 to sit as an independent, although he has continued to support the government on confidence and supply.
- Jenny Ware (Liberal)
- Pete Thompson (Greens)
- Georgia Steele (Independent)
- Craig Kelly (United Australia)
- Narelle Seymour (One Nation)
- Linda Seymour (Independent)
- Riley Campbell (Labor)
Assessment
Hughes has shifted to become safer in recent, despite a history as a key marginal seat. It’s unlikely Labor would have won this seat if not for the Kelly independent candidacy. It seems most likely that Kelly will fall short and that the new Liberal candidate will win (if Kelly even runs), but his candidacy would open up a wider range of possible outcomes, including the potential for independent Georgia Steele.
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
| Craig Kelly | Liberal | 50,763 | 53.2 | +1.2 |
| Diedree Steinwall | Labor | 29,088 | 30.5 | -1.4 |
| Mitchell Shakespeare | Greens | 6,631 | 6.9 | -0.4 |
| Gae Constable | Animal Justice | 2,439 | 2.6 | -1.4 |
| Terrance Keep | United Australia Party | 2,366 | 2.5 | +2.5 |
| Leo-Ning Liu | Christian Democratic Party | 2,216 | 2.3 | -2.5 |
| Matt Bryan | Independent | 1,988 | 2.1 | +2.1 |
| Informal | 5,208 | 5.2 | +0.8 |
2019 two-party-preferred result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
| Craig Kelly | Liberal | 57,149 | 59.8 | +0.5 |
| Diedree Steinwall | Labor | 38,342 | 40.2 | -0.5 |
Booths have been divided into four parts. The majority of the population is in the urban parts of Sutherland Shire, and these booths have been split into “east” (including Como, Jannali and Sutherland) and “central” (including Menai).
Engadine, Waterfall, Bundeena and Heathcote have been grouped as “south”, while the booths in the Liverpool council area are grouped as “north-west”.
The Liberal Party won a majority of the two-party-preferred vote in all four areas, ranging from 54.8% in the south to 66.9% in the centre.
| Voter group | LIB 2PP % | Total votes | % of votes |
| East | 55.1 | 22,149 | 23.2 |
| Central | 66.9 | 17,891 | 18.7 |
| South | 54.8 | 11,926 | 12.5 |
| North-West | 59.9 | 10,375 | 10.9 |
| Pre-poll | 60.8 | 22,781 | 23.9 |
| Other votes | 61.6 | 10,369 | 10.9 |
Election results in Hughes at the 2019 federal election
Toggle between two-party-preferred votes and primary votes for the Liberal Party and Labor.
No way Kelly only gets 5%. He almost certainly will get 10-15% at least.
Daniel the Sutherland Shire isn’t really pro-UAP/Anti-vax. I can believe 10% but 15% is a stretch.
Craig Kelly has the advantage of incumbency and name recognition (as the leader of the UAP in the House of Reps). He’ll score really well compared to the UAP-average.
With their ‘put the majors last’ campaign and ‘don’t trust Labor, Liberals or the Greens’ campaign, I wonder if many UAP voters’ preferences will flow to the independent (Georgia Steele) and help her get across the line.
Votante, UAP HTV for Hughes goes to PHON and then the Liberals, but I think you are right that many UAP voters would choose to put the majors last. Steele 2nd last after Greens on the HTV.
Guesses what Steele will poll. ? This one seat where uap put the majors last could matter.
It was a close-run thing, but the UAP just fell a lazy 76 seats short of making Craig Kelly the next Prime Minister
I reckon Steele at 15% primary is still a bit short! On a night when Holmes a Court (rightly) could say his ROI was spectacular – this was a spectacular fail, and probably the best result for the LP in NSW.
Not exactly much to be proud of for the Liberals to retain a post-Howard heartland outer suburban seat. If they could lose this one they wouldn’t have a single safe seat in the cities.
I was skeptical of the earlier polls for good reason for this electorate. Simply not the teal demographic. IMO was never a real prospect in the first place.
It’s a similar situation in nearby Banks. The western half is similar to Hughes and barely swung to Labor and some booths even swung to the Libs. It’s the eastern half around Hurstville with a larger Chinese Australian population that’s driving the overall swing in the seat though not enough to unseat Coleman. Both Banks and Hughes will never be won by Labor again.
Is Craig Kelly’s primary vote the lowest ever for a sitting MP who does not have serious criminal matters pending?
Peter Slipper’s 1.5% was not very good
Craig Kelly has now joined One Nation as Federal Campaign Director. I wonder if Senator Ralph Babet will join One Nation and as well maybe United Australia Party is coming to end.
This could be and interesting seat if it’s amalgamated with Cunningham
Nimalan, He isn’t in One Nation anymore, He just quit. Could he team up with Rennick in QLD?
@Daniel T maybe, but it would
Right-wing minor parties don’t have beef with each other, in fact at the last federal election and the previous state elections in NSW, Victoria and Queensland we saw all of them work together as a team by preferencing each other and supporting each other’s campaigns because of their common values (i.e anti-majors, anti-Greens, aggressively anti-woke and anti-lockdown/government politics).
At the “freedom rallies” we saw right-wing (One Nation, UAP, Libertarian (then-Liberal Democrats), Freedom Party, etc) candidates all unite together to fight against governments and COVID restrictions, while simultaneously promoting conspiracy theories and right-wing populism.
@Nimalan the UAP have lacked actual policies ever since the fall of the original PUP, it’s now basically just an alternative party that attracts disaffected voters who believe in right-wing conspiracy theories. It seems like Clive Palmer just wants attention, and he’s the exact definition of populist. He believes in whatever is popular with the far-right at the time. One Nation on the other hand has actual policies and has consistently advocated for them and while the party does advocate for some of the same things the UAP advocates for, they’ve been more consistent. One Nation also has less money than the UAP because Clive Palmer is a billionaire businessman and mining magnate as well as the richest Queenslander (and the eighth-richest Australian).
@ Nether Portal/Daniel T
I agree that the UAP lacks actual policies or even a clear demographic base each election they talk about something different and do we well in different seats. I think in 2025 they will not do well in seats with high Muslim population like Calwell i think they will be focused on anti-renewables next election.
@Nimalan that’s if they decide to run again of course.
@ NP
Good point i am not sure if they will run again as well. I honestly wonder if Ralph Babet will stick with UAP or whether he will get bored and just defect.
Dan M I disagree Hughes depends on the boundaries
Banks in 2022 margin approx 3% this seat can be won by Labor under the right circumstances….. if Mr Coleman retires the Alps job would be easier
Does the UAP actually still exist as a legal entity? If, for example, Ralph Babet fell under the proverbial bus, can he actually be replaced if the party does not exist?
Highly doubtful if Ralph Babet would run again in 2028 as he has always made it pretty clear that he is actually not that keen to be there.
@redistributed it would go back to 2022 results the next person on the uap ticket would get elected
Re uap… ceases to exist how do we fill a casual vacancy…. count back as in
Tas ?
@Redistributed if he runs he’ll probably run with One Nation. Pauline Hanson will be running again in 2028 too unless she resigns since her term expires then.
The faces of the Populist right – i.e ON and Clive Palmer – are not young – Malcolm Roberts is the youngster at 69! There seems to be apparent successor to them within ON or the country at large. Next year and 2028 could be quite interesting as the right wing populist voters may not have anywhere to go. The hardheads around Peter Dutton may have realised this already.