Holt – Australia 2022

The Labor margin has been slowly decreasing through here, this could interesting in future elections however, this seat is safe currently.

Well everything has changed.
Anthony Byrne will have to resign as a Labor party member.
WILL HE RETIRE ?
Will he contest the election as an independent, or for a minor party ?.
What will the libs do ?
Will they run dead ?
How will this affect the labor vote in VIC, or NATIONALLY ?

He may well retire, although he’s well regarded from a bipartisan perspective given his work in the Parliamentary Joint Standing Committee on Intelligence and Security, having been part of it since 2005 – both Andrew Hastie, Peter Dutton, Kimberley Kitching, Mike Kelly and Stephen Conroy all view him in a good light. I would guess that’s part of the reason why Albo refuses to expel him or having him stand down from the ALP (as well as likely being a political ally of Albo).

I’m not sure that the recent IBAC revelations regarding him would actually impact the Labor vote in Victoria all that much, or indeed nationally – if this was going to switch one’s vote, I would suspect they switched it awhile ago prior already (a lot of the branch stacking allegations were revealed last year and led to Adem Somyurek’s explusion from the ALP – Byrne was also already linked to Somyurek back then).

WL
Thanks for your thoughts
We will have to wait for developments regarding Byrne’s future. His motivations are still unclear in terms of his intentions, & objectives. I’m unclear of his personality type. If he is a type 2 (like Rudd, or Turnbull) this’ll get really dirty, & ugly. Pure vengeance . If he’s a type 5 it will all be intellectual , about facts, principles, objective truth .
I agree with most of your summation, howeveR I cannot see how Albo can ignore all this.

My view is entirely different wrt the implications, & future of all this. This is really big.

There’s no evidence the ordinary voter really cares about internal party shenanigans like branch stacking. Recall that in 2001 the Beattie government was returned in a thumping landslide despite the rorts uncovered by the Shepherdson inquiry, and the accompanying media frenzy.

Byrne’s been the local member for about 22 years now, hasn’t he? Pretty good run.

I’ll grant that there might be some Victorian impact, but I don’t think there are significant national implications. It’s not like a Premier has resigned or anything…

I didn’t realise the sitting member was here since the 90’s quite odd, I believe he is the longest serving current MP in Victoria besides Kevin Andrews?

I doubt the scandal will hurt the vote much and this is a safe Labor seat.

I doubt the sitting member will run as an independent. That is ludicrous to suggest, He will most likely retire instead and not resign like the previous member did AFTER being elected in 1998, Members shouldn’t resign from their seats midterm and instead should retire beforehand unless there is some health crisis such as Mike Kelly. People elect members of parliament to SERVE a full 3 years or however long the term is and is a direct insult to democracy for quitting early (This includes Mr Turnbull)

This seat was surprisingly close in 2004 despite John Howard being unpopular and the Bracks government being extremely popular at the time, and reason for why the coalition did well in Victoria in 2004? I doubt Latham because I don’t see how Latham was as appalling as Bill Shorten and his forest policy couldn’t have hurt in inner Melbourne.

Jason Wood the current MP for La Trobe interestingly ran here in 2001 (and lost)

It is true that the Seat was nearly lost in 2004. This seat back then and still is a very mortgage belt seat and the campaign on interest rates by the Liberal party would have resonated in this seat more than most others. On these boundaries the Liberals would have won it in 2004 although like my comments in the La Trobe thread that would be a meaningless statement as much of the area beyond Cranbourne was still farmland and this boundaries would not have made a full quota in 2004 but shows an area with rapid population growth. It is likely that this seat will be impacted heavily by future redistributions for this reason.

Previous election threads on Holt have talked up Byrne’s personal vote and appeal to Liberal voters in this seat.

Maybe the branch stacking issue won’t hurt Labor much overall, but if Byrne gets dumped or resigns in disgrace, the loss of his vote might see a swing against them here. As others have noted many times, the overlapping state seats are marginal at competitive state elections…..outside of Hampton Park, I wouldn’t call Holt rock solid Labor territory.

Wasn’t the Scoresby Tollway an issue here in 2004 as well?

WOS, yes Scoresby Tollway would have been an issue as well.Aston, Deakin and La Trobe all saw significant swings to the Liberals in part due to this issue. Holt would have been lost in 2004 had working class Doveton not been in the seat back then.

Anthony Byrne has announced that he is not recontesting Holt.

https://www.theage.com.au/politics/federal/labor-mp-who-blew-whistle-on-somyurek-won-t-recontest-federal-seat-20220303-p5a1d2.html

This seat will be interesting to watch as if the LNP have a good night in Victoria then this could be close or at the very least marginal.

Bob, As far as I can see, the Libs don’t have a candidate yet. A good night for the Libs in Victoria would be losing only Chisholm!! On the current boundaries, it might just be winnable for the Libs in a very good year.

Redistributed,
I agree that its a bridge too far for the LNP to win Holt, however I don’t think Labor will be picking anything more then Chisholm at this stage.

Cranbourne booths seem to be stronger federally than in the state seat of Cranbourne, which has been a key marginal seat in recent years. The results in Holt 2019 look similar to Cranbourne in 2018, whereas the strong result for Labor in Victoria in 2018 wasn’t replicated in most other parts of the state in the federal election.
Byrne must have a decent personal vote here, though the area has so many new residents that you wouldn’t expect that to be a factor.

@ Adam, Good point about Cranbourne it maybe due to personal vote for Byrne or it maybe due different campaigning decision at a state level most of the Outer South East receives a lot of attention from both parties. The results in the Narre Warren Seats as well as Cranbourne are usually only a couple of points above the state-wide Labor TPP. As the eastern suburbs heartland comprise a smaller share of Victoria’s population and many regional seats such as Macedon, Geelong and Bendigo/Ballarat seats are increasingly out of reach they focus a lot of attention here. At a federal level, the Libs have more paths to victory so they do not most anywhere near the same level of effort.

This seat will make history as it will have two Sri Lankan candidates running for the major parties. In fact nearly all candidates are South Asian with the exception of UAP and ONP. It reminds me of Chisholm in 2019 and or Bethnal Green and Bow at the 2010 UK election where all candidates where Bangladeshi.