Groom – Australia 2022

Margin will go back over 70% after the election due to the new personal vote of the sitting member. This seat is evidently trending further to the right based on the state election results which swung to the LNP despite Labor getting a swing statewide. Toowoomba North basically is not longer a Labor target. and with the LNP deputy from Toowoomba it should boost their presence in the region.

This is a strongly conservative seat and will stay that way.

Actually the state LNP member for Toowoomba South David Janetski recently resigned as deputy for family health reasons.

This is very safe Liberal seat but Labor Genevieve Allpass, a teacher and former chief executive of a Toowoomba-based refugee advocacy charity was announced the Labor canidate last year in June. Who is giving it a red hot crack.

A couple independents have put there hand up in this seat as well. But I can’t see them giving Garth Hamilton much trouble. Toowoomba has never been strong hunting grounds for independents.

LNP retains.

The demographic has changed ALOT since 2019. I was born and bred in Toowoomba, used to be a rusted on LNP supporter till i saw the light. Libs will still probably hang on but im predicting a huge swing to Labor.

There has been a lot of untelevised activism in Toowoomba, escalating throughout the pandemic. The minor party and independent challenge is rapidly rising.

While there will likely be a hit to LNP first-preferences here, and a boost to Labor first-preferences, David is right that the challenge from independents and minor parties might escalate here. I would not be surprised to see a non-classic 2CP outcome here, like Maranoa. Other electorates to watch out for in QLD at risk of being non-classic 2CP outcomes – if first-preferences for the major parties continue to shrink, include similar divisions: Wright, Hinkler, Flynn and less likely – Wide Bay. All aforementioned contests, even if non-classic are likely to have LNP remain on top with a decent margin.

I don’t expect Suzie Holt, one of the only QLD “teal-independents”, making much of an dent in Groom, even with animated activism on the ground. I would still anticipate ON or at least the combination of ON and UAP to have a greater amount of first-preferences.

The three inner-city divisions: Griffith, Brisbane and Ryan could also be non-classic 2CP outcomes but for different reasons, involving the Greens.

I wonder what Antony Green thinks about the prospect of a heap of non-classic 2CP outcomes occurring this election. I have grave concerns for his swing/results prediction computer on election night, which relies upon previous 2CP match-ups to determine projected swings.

I watched some of Anthony Green’s coverage on ABC and online, and noticed that when there is an incorrect 2CP pairing, estimates of preference flows are used as a rough guide until actual preference counts are available the next day/week.

In addition, it also depends on what the AEC determines is the most likely pairing – some state electoral commissions do change the 2CP pairing before polling day depending on the likely finishing order of candidates.

This is my new seat, having moved from Cairns earlier in the year. I expect the LNP to be solidly returned but with a reduced margin. The 2PP vote may even have a 5 in front of it, if the swing is well and truly on throughout QLD.

Apparently the LNP are on track to record their worst primary vote since the seat was established in 1984, according to articles that are stuck behind a News Ltd paywall.

Out of curiosity, the primary votes for the LNP and Nats/Libs combined since 1984 are as follows:

1984 – 64.9%
1987 – 62.2%
1988 by election – 62.2%
1990 – 57.2%
1993 – 55.78%
1996 – 64.82% (no Nationals candidate)
1998 – 48.29% (One Nation emergence)
2001 – 57.83%
2004 – 60.36% (no Nationals candidate)
2007 – 52.71% (Kevin 07)
2010 – 61.25% (first LNP election)
2013 – 55.64%
2016 – 54.00%
2019 – 53.34%
2020 by election – 59.83%

For myself, it will be interesting to see whether either of the independents will finish in the final two.

@NQ View went looking for it and as I suspected it appears those numbers are pulled from the YouGov MRP polling. I’ve expressed my skepticism of their results on other pages so need to repeat myself but I personally don’t think they’re very accurate. Have not been to Toowoomba in quite a while now so I can’t say what things are like on the ground but it seems they might be giving the Independents too little share of the vote (6%). The TPP for Groom at 64-36 seems reasonable though as opposed to seats like Mallee and Parkes.

Thanks for that Laine. I’m only new here but my impression is that the locals are looking to send a protest vote. It wouldn’t surprise me if one of the independents snuck ahead of the ALP, in which case the 2PP margin could drop to something like 55-45. The LNP v ALP margin of 64-36 seems right, and would represent a swing away from the government of 6% based on the 2019 result.

Groom goes to preferences, with Hamilton on around 41%. That’s a 18% swing against on primary votes compared with the by-election win. The independents failed to crack 10%, One Nation in third place. Overall the seat looks safe for the LNP, with a 2PP of around 65%, but who knows for 2025?

The loss of government was well and truly on the cards, with the appalling abrogation of responsibility to the states/territories and now businesses over Covid. The other major failure, as I see it, was surrendering to the climate change nutters with the net zero emissions rubbish that was not part of the election platform in 2019. This should have been a 2-3 term government at least, but has failed its core support so dismally it has got what it asked for.

“This should have been a 2-3 term government at least”

It was a three term government. Sure, there’s also been three prime ministers – but it was absolutely a three term government.

Fossil1, uh, what? It was a three term government and not doing more on climate change was one of the reasons they got kicked out. Why do you think many of their inner city seats fell to the independents and the Greens?

The ALP and PHON have been passed on preferences by the Independent Suzie Holt and an LNP versus Holt 2CP is now underway.

Hamilton’s lead sharply reduced to 53-47 against Holt, turning Groom from one of Australia’s safest seats to a marginal seat to watch in 2025.

ABC projects it as 58-42. Not even close.

Still the worst showing for either the Liberals or Nationals in Groom and its predecessor for 60 years barring 2007. And their combined second worst primary vote ever as well. Maybe Garth Hamilton will think twice before he speaks now knowing he might not be so lucky against a more unified and media-covered independent front in 2025.

It will be below the 2007 result on margin, so set to be the lowest margin ever (or if we include the predecessor seat of Darling Downs, the lowest margin since 1961). It will also be the lowest primary vote ever for the Liberal or National party apart from when both parties were contesting the seat at once.

Groom is one of the most conservative seats in the entire country, far outside the wheelhouse of the teal independents, and neither Holt nor Smolenski’s campaigns were all that incredibly inspired, let alone resourced. A win’s a win I guess but you could just about run a barn animal under the LNP banner and expect a similar result. Having said that I expect this is just about as bad as it’ll ever get for Hamilton, and if I were one of the Climate 200 plutocrats eyeing potential beachheads in Queensland, I’d be far more interested in seats like Fairfax, Moncrieff and McPherson.

Ben, That IS close. Don’t try to put a good spin on a bad result for the LNP, 8% isn’t safe anymore and we have seen that in state and federal elections. This is safe against LABOR, but not a conservative independent. The sitting MP has been put on ”notice”

It is evident to be amongst the most conservative places in Australia given they voted no for Same-sex Marriage in 2017. A factor is that despite having Toowomba as their major centre, Toowomba itself is a very conservative possibly I was told due to a largely conservative Christian base. Comment if there are other reasons

Apparently a city being traditionally conservative invalidates its ability to support a sensible and local independent, present or future. That aside, Cowper and Nicholls both had close races against independents as well and they are just as safe as Groom is for the L/NP.

It goes to show that there is nowhere the LNP can dismiss the chances of an opposing candidate. Imagine if their campaigns received anywhere near as much attention (or money) as those in Sydney and Melbourne…

And as we have all seen by now, Labor is not safe from this phenomenon either. It’s just taking a little longer to kick in.

@Marh Toowoomba is pretty unique when you factor in both its size and position relative to the coast so I’m not sure what other city I could or would compare it to. Aside from that Christian base you mentioned (which definitely has a role), being the gateway to such an expansive farming region certainly plays a part too. If you check out Toowoomba’s census data it’ll be considerably below the national average in any multicultural statistic you can think of, and it prides itself more on being a big country town than a regional city, although that’s a bit difficult for even the residents to believe as it continues to grow larger. I’m sure somebody else can tell you the details about its workforce and dwelling stats but that’s the gist of it.

@Daniel AEC defines anything above 6% as safe, so 8% is safe!